Free Agency - How confident are you?

[RTC]

There seems to be folks that think the FO "will" or "has to" go all out in FA this winter.  Personally, I have no confidence that this FO can do anything right, but I'm genuinely curious where people stand.  If you answer any of the top 3 choices, I would really want to know WHY?  Other than they HAVE to.  What give you any confidence?  Actually curious, not trying to be argumentative.

Edited July 22, 2019 by RTC

[Jose Abreu]

All we know is that they have to spend. Even if the most negative of posters will disagree, they aren't going to maintain some of the lowest inflation-adjusted payrolls in modern franchise history with the clock ticking on many of the core pieces.

That said, I don't see them spending on a "big fish", but that doesn't mean they'll have to settle for bargain bin types either. 

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

All we know is that they have to spend. Even if the most negative of posters will disagree, they aren't going to maintain some of the lowest inflation-adjusted payrolls in modern franchise history with the clock ticking on many of the core pieces.

That said, I don't see them spending on a "big fish", but that doesn't mean they'll have to settle for bargain bin types either. 

The bolded is really the bottom line.  The Sox currently have $17M committed to 2020 payroll.  With arbitration, they'll be around $50M without signing anybody.  They could add $75M to next year's payroll and still be below average.  

[wegner]

I voted for the decent range option.  My guess is that they will go quickly for the type B free agents that they like and offer deals no longer than 3-4 years.  Hopefully they target the right guys.  I highly doubt that they will be in on the top free agents. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by wegner

[Jack Parkman]

14 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

All we know is that they have to spend. Even if the most negative of posters will disagree, they aren't going to maintain some of the lowest inflation-adjusted payrolls in modern franchise history with the clock ticking on many of the core pieces.

That said, I don't see them spending on a "big fish", but that doesn't mean they'll have to settle for bargain bin types either. 

The fact that this is true and they still didn't go the extra mile for Machado or Harper makes me think that maybe they're content raking in the cash and will only shop at the bargain bin or the dumpster. 

Maybe it might be that they have to severely overpay to land FA. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[mqr]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The fact that this is true and they still didn't go the extra mile for Machado or Harper makes me think that maybe they're content raking in the cash and will only shop at the bargain bin or the dumpster. 

Maybe it might be that they have to severely overpay to land FA. 

The present AAV has nothing to do with why the didn't go the extra mile. 

[bmags]

Their track record is horrible, and I am concerned teams will spend a bit more this free agency trying to show well for the next CBA and the sox may lose out on some targets or spend more on average than they would have last year.

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

The fact that this is true and they still didn't go the extra mile for Machado or Harper makes me think that maybe they're content raking in the cash and will only shop at the bargain bin or the dumpster. 

Maybe it might be that they have to severely overpay to land FA. 

Or maybe they didn't want to guarantee a guy $300M when they were about 2 years away from being ready for prime time.  Having to overpay to land a premier FA may also be a legitimate possibility.  

But I also fully expect them to be in the Cole sweepstakes, and from the sounds of it, I am one of the few here who believe that.  

[RTC]

15 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

All we know is that they have to spend. Even if the most negative of posters will disagree, they aren't going to maintain some of the lowest inflation-adjusted payrolls in modern franchise history with the clock ticking on many of the core pieces.

That said, I don't see them spending on a "big fish", but that doesn't mean they'll have to settle for bargain bin types either. 

That's my point.  That seems to be the attitude a lot of people are expressing, but why?  @ChiSox59 was probably in the right neighborhood with his $50M after Arb and league min's.  Now add the equivalent of Ivan Nova, Adam Dunn, Jeff Keppinger, and Kelvin Herrera .......... and you're darn close to the $90M payroll they had in 2014 when they told us they were supposedly competing.  Just because they won't have a $17M payroll doesn't mean a) it'll be $130M or b) they'll spend it on the right guys

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

The fact that this is true and they still didn't go the extra mile for Machado or Harper makes me think that maybe they're content raking in the cash and will only shop at the bargain bin or the dumpster. 

This is where I'm at.  I just see nothing in their track record that says they can/will either a) outbid everyone else for a significant FA, b) choose the right guy or c) play their hand right and not screw it up.

Believe me, I'm not trying to be negative, I WANT TO BELIEVE.  But somebody please convince me with facts, not blind faith in a FO with a poor track record.

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, RTC said:

That's my point.  That seems to be the attitude a lot of people are expressing, but why?  @ChiSox59 was probably in the right neighborhood with his $50M after Arb and league min's.  Now add the equivalent of Ivan Nova, Adam Dunn, Jeff Keppinger, and Kelvin Herrera .......... and you're darn close to the $90M payroll they had in 2014 when they told us they were supposedly competing.  Just because they won't have a $17M payroll doesn't mean a) it'll be $130M or b) they'll spend it on the right guys

Re: bold, the point is that you don't have to add that anymore because they, ideally, rebuilt while knowing that their young, cheap core would be supplemented by non-garbage players. It isn't like the 2009-2016 go for it years because our young core has a lot more depth. Back then, it was always 4-6 players. For 2020 and beyond, it looks closer to a dozen. 

[bmags]

I don't believe they felt they were competing in 2014.

[RTC]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't believe they felt they were competing in 2014.

Fair enough

 

13 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Re: bold, the point is that you don't have to add that anymore because they, ideally, rebuilt while knowing that their young, cheap core would be supplemented by non-garbage players. It isn't like the 2009-2016 go for it years because our young core has a lot more depth. Back then, it was always 4-6 players. For 2020 and beyond, it looks closer to a dozen. 

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying.  Is your point that they don't have to add AS MANY guys?  If so, I only named 4 hypotheticals (which, for 2020 consensus seems to be bat, SP, and pen piece or 2) so 4 is not an unrealistic number.  And I don't see how having less holes to fill means they're going to be better at filling what holes they have.  

[bmags]

Just now, RTC said:

Fair enough

 

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying.  Is your point that they don't have to add AS MANY guys?  If so, I only named 4 hypotheticals (which, for 2020 consensus seems to be bat, SP, and pen piece or 2) so 4 is not an unrealistic number.  And I don't see how having less holes to fill means they're going to be better at filling what holes they have.  

I do agree with you that we could be at $110 million and none of us would even be that impressed with the signings. When you add up the amount of spots we still need, the $amount will be large even if there is no marquee guy.

Basically would need to hit like the twins did in the offseason, which is one of the better ones of the last few years.

[TheFutureIsNear]

I know $ talks...but people assume that all free agents want to come to the Sox. Are we definitely sure of this? Wouldn’t shock me if some of the actual “big fish” don’t consider the Sox as a viable option. Won’t surprise me if the Sox have to overpay by a good margin if we want a top of the line starter in free agency 

[RTC]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Basically would need to hit like the twins did in the offseason, which is one of the better ones of the last few years.

Great example.  The signings they had are the TYPES of guys I think are realistic gets for the Sox but can the Hahn & Co choose the right guys?

[chitownsportsfan]

36 minutes ago, bmags said:

Their track record is horrible, and I am concerned teams will spend a bit more this free agency trying to show well for the next CBA and the sox may lose out on some targets or spend more on average than they would have last year.

Indeed.  You hope.  That's all you can do.  Expecting them to do a 180 on FA signings is just...hopeful.  When was the last time Hahn attempted to supplement the roster via FA?  2015?  Was that the Wilson Betetimit era or the  Keppinger era?  It all has blended together.

[Jose Abreu]

8 minutes ago, RTC said:

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying.  Is your point that they don't have to add AS MANY guys?  If so, I only named 4 hypotheticals (which, for 2020 consensus seems to be bat, SP, and pen piece or 2) so 4 is not an unrealistic number.  And I don't see how having less holes to fill means they're going to be better at filling what holes they have.  

That's basically what I'm saying. But having fewer holes to fill, in my opinion, actually does mean they are going to be better at filling them, simply because they'll have more money to do so and won't need to dumpster dive. Even if our current core + 4-5 or so free agents still isn't a good enough team, I still have a lot of faith in the non-Robert/Madrigal type of prospects in our system, plus the recent influx of intriguing talent in the DSL and Rookie Leagues

[mqr]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Indeed.  You hope.  That's all you can do.  Expecting them to do a 180 on FA signings is just...hopeful.  When was the last time Hahn attempted to supplement the roster via FA?  2015?  Was that the Wilson Betetimit era or the  Keppinger era?  It all has blended together.

That would be the Melky Cabrera and Adam Laroche Era

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, mqr said:

That would be the Melky Cabrera and Adam Laroche Era

Oh God I'm too old for this shit.

[mqr]

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

Oh God I'm too old for this shit.

Bright side, if they make those same two moves again the lineup should be MUCH better in 2020 than it was in 2015 regardless.

[raBBit]

They need to prolific because they're not getting Rendon/Cole.

1) They'll sign Jason Castro to catch with McCann.

2) They sign or trade for a rightfielder

3) They should sign a left-handed reserve with all the righties on the lineup but we'll see there. I assume they end up filling that need internally but I would love Scooter Gennett on the more expensive side or Brad Miller on the cheaper side.

4) 1 or 2 SPs

5) At least two relievers. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

They'll sign Gerrit Cole's brother, grandma, and goldfish only to have him sign with the Padres at the last second 

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

Bright side, if they make those same two moves again the lineup should be MUCH better in 2020 than it was in 2015 regardless.

Yea we have less holes to fill now so again here's hoping.

@raBBit On the SP front I'd like to see them acquire someone at the deadline.  It's a total buyer's market.  I still think Mike Leake makes a lot of sense.

Edited July 22, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[bmags]

What is the best 2019-20 free agency list? MLBTR's burned me because it included guys that were on team options.

[SonofaRoache]

We aren't signing a big fish like Cole. I do think we sign 2 impact starters like Bum and Wood, we will acquire an impact RF somehow, and will sign a bullpen arm. Our FA class will have a big impact on the team but no stars.