Free Agency - How confident are you?

[Jack Parkman]

3 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

On a scale of 1-10 I say a three...these are the White Sox.

Yeah, I'd be at a 2-3 myself. 

[GermanSoxFan]

4 hours ago, DirtySox said:

I wanted to like your post, but none of the 4 icon options accurately describe what I'm feeling right now.

I agree.There is no button for sexual arousal, mods should fix that immediately.

[caulfield12]

This thread is in danger of entering borderline creepy Watchmen territory...

[Drwhoo1]

I am always playing catch-up since I can’t get on all the time. Just don’t have the access. Anyway, do you guys think signing big money players is the way to win? All everybody cares about is the BIG signing. It doesn’t matter what the price, you’ll be guaranteed to win. I’ve noticed some saying we’ve only had 2 big signings and it was a long time ago. How’d that work out? Why don’t you show me how that worked for other teams. I can bet that percentage is very low. I’d like to know what big signing helped win a championship. I know there are a few but like I said, the percentage is pretty small. 

The White Sox didn’t have a big signing when they won. As a matter of fact, I remember having to argue with almost everyone when Lee was traded for Podsednik. God, every talk show, would just complain about how stupid that trade was. It seemed like I was the only one to like it since it fit our team need. We had plenty of Lee’s. Anyway, going off topic, the point being, signing for big money doesn’t guarantee anything unless you were the Yankees and got everyone. 

The teams that are successful are the ones that make smart signings. We have put ourselves in a great position to sign anybody with no bad contracts being locked in. How great is that and most want to sign just because we are so low. If the right one comes along, sure but right now, how do you know what we need? I hear Grandal, really? For 14 million more he’ll make us that much better. Seems like a lateral move to me but I forget, he has the name recognition. Who cares about anything else. I do think we need a starter and possibly an OF. But until I see how they do next year, am not sure. 

The first 5-6 spots in our lineup seem to be taken. I don’t want big names. If one falls in our lap then sure. I want what fits our team need. Being this early still, not sure how anyone knows what that will be. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 7/22/2019 at 12:49 PM, chitownsportsfan said:

Yea we have less holes to fill now so again here's hoping.

@raBBit On the SP front I'd like to see them acquire someone at the deadline.  It's a total buyer's market.  I still think Mike Leake makes a lot of sense.

If you like Mike Leake then lets go one better and try for Robbie Ray. We need a LH and Ray is younger but arent both FA's in 2021 ?

[Chicago White Sox]

18 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Nope, Abreu was not included.  $50M is probably a tad high - perhaps closer to $45M if they non-tender Yolmer, but its in the ballpark.

Point is, average MLB payroll is $135M.  Sox could add Cole ($30M AAV), Grandal ($20M), Wood (8-10M AAV), Abreu ($8-10M AAV), and 2 relievers ($15M AAV) and still have a below average payroll.  While obviously I'd love to see that happen, it won't.  But the point is, at some point the Sox are going to add some serious payroll.  My hope is that they do it by adding a few elite players, rather several over the hill meh veterans as they have done in the past.  I am hopeful that they'll change their ways with a legit 5-7 year contention window ahead, but I understand those that say "I'll believe it when I see it".   

They will 100% spend big money this offseason.  To me, the only free agents that seem to be a stretch are Rendon, Cole, & probably Strasburg (and I still believe they pursue both pitchers).  Ultimately I see them settling for Bumgarner (who I like but is seriously overrated around here) or Wheeler (who I think is criminally underrated here) as their primary starting pitching upgrade.  I fully expect a second rotation addition simply due to our lack of depth and Wood would be a fantastic option, although I could see them going cheaper there.  Assuming we keep Colome & Bummer, I think only one bigger bullpen addition will be needed (Betances is a guy I’d love to add) as I’d expect Lopez to likely move to the pen at some point.

I fully expect Abreu back on a two year deal (in the $25M to $30M range).  I still think they pursue Grandal to fill the left-handed void in the middle of the lineup and as a plus he won’t cost us a draft pick.  Him, McCann, & Collins could basically rotate between C & DH for half a year until Vaughn is ready.  They will also most definitely acquire a RF upgrade one way or the other, with a stopgap like Puig (until Walker or one of the AA guys is ready) a potentially cheaper option.  I do like your Nimmo trade idea as well depending on the price.

So in summary let’s say you add Bumgarner ($20M), Wood ($10M), Betances ($12M), Grandal ($20M), & Puig ($12M).  That’s ~$75M in payroll added to a base roster that’s probably sitting around ~$55M after extending Abreu and bringing back Rodon.  All in you’re looking at a payroll of ~$130M, which would basically be league average.

• Lineup: Madrigal (2B), Robert (CF), Moncada (3B), Jimenez (LF), Abreu (1B), Grandal (C/DH), Puig (RF), Anderson (SS), McCann/Collins (DH/C)
• Bench: Garcia (UT), Cordell (OF),  Mendick (IF), Collins/McCann (BC)
• Rotation: Giolito, Bumgarner, Cease, Wood, Lopez (*Kopech to start in AAA)
• Bullpen: Colome, Bummer, Betances, Fry, Herrera, Marshall/Hamilton, Covey/Banuelos (*eventually Lopez)

That seems completely doable to me and would be a team that should challenge for the AL Central title and/or second Wild Card spot in 2020.

[Moan4Yoan]

Wait a second, what happened to Cole and Ozuna?  Your free agent expectations are already dropping?  Also, when I mentioned Puig as more the Sox style due to their past interest, I got jumped on.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Wait a second, what happened to Cole and Ozuna?  Your free agent expectations are already dropping?  Also, when I mentioned Puig as more the Sox style due to their past interest, I got jumped on.

My free agent expectations are far from dropping.  I have never once claimed we’d add Cole.  I said we should do everything in our power to sign him, but have always conveyed it being unlikely given Jerry’s concern with years.  I think Bumgarner and Wheeler will likely get five years max (Wheeler probably less) and that should be doable for us.

As for Ozuna, we’re unlikely to add both him & Grandal to long-term deals.  My plan is prioritizing Grandal because he solves the left-handed bat problem.  The only reason I included Puig is you might be able to get him on a pillow contract and buy a year to see what you have in Walker, Rutherford, etc.  If he wants a multi-year deal, then I’m filling RF via trade.  I love Ozuna’s bat and think he’s definitely signable this offseason, but I’d need proof his arm is healthy and has returned to form to seriously consider him.  Again, his addition also makes adding a left-handed bad challenging.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

They will 100% spend big money this offseason.  To me, the only free agents that seem to be a stretch are Rendon, Cole, & probably Strasburg (and I still believe they pursue both pitchers).  Ultimately I see them settling for Bumgarner (who I like but is seriously overrated around here) or Wheeler (who I think is criminally underrated here) as their primary starting pitching upgrade.  I fully expect a second rotation addition simply due to our lack of depth and Wood would be a fantastic option, although I could see them going cheaper there.  Assuming we keep Colome & Bummer, I think only one bigger bullpen addition will be needed (Betances is a guy I’d love to add) as I’d expect Lopez to likely move to the pen at some point.

I fully expect Abreu back on a two year deal (in the $25M to $30M range).  I still think they pursue Grandal to fill the left-handed void in the middle of the lineup and as a plus he won’t cost us a draft pick.  Him, McCann, & Collins could basically rotate between C & DH for half a year until Vaughn is ready.  They will also most definitely acquire a RF upgrade one way or the other, with a stopgap like Puig (until Walker or one of the AA guys is ready) a potentially cheaper option.  I do like your Nimmo trade idea as well depending on the price.

So in summary let’s say you add Bumgarner ($20M), Wood ($10M), Betances ($12M), Grandal ($20M), & Puig ($12M).  That’s ~$75M in payroll added to a base roster that’s probably sitting around ~$55M after extending Abreu and bringing back Rodon.  All in you’re looking at a payroll of ~$130M, which would basically be league average.

• Lineup: Madrigal (2B), Robert (CF), Moncada (3B), Jimenez (LF), Abreu (1B), Grandal (C/DH), Puig (RF), Anderson (SS), McCann/Collins (DH/C)
• Bench: Garcia (UT), Cordell (OF),  Mendick (IF), Collins/McCann (BC)
• Rotation: Giolito, Bumgarner, Cease, Wood, Lopez (*Kopech to start in AAA)
• Bullpen: Colome, Bummer, Betances, Fry, Herrera, Marshall/Hamilton, Covey/Banuelos (*eventually Lopez)

That seems completely doable to me and would be a team that should challenge for the AL Central title and/or second Wild Card spot in 2020.

Yah, I like this. We’re on the same page.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I like this. We’re on the same page.

Just need Rick to buy in now ?

[Moan4Yoan]

I would pass on Bumgarner.  I watched him pitch against the Cubs last night.  His stuff is nothing special these days.

[Moan4Yoan]

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Just need Rick to buy in now ?

More like Jerry.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I would pass on Bumgarner.  I watched him pitch against the Cubs last night.  His stuff is nothing special these days.

It's easy to say pass on Bumgarner, and while I actually agree - there are only two or three clear cut better options in Cole and potentially Strasburg (he should opt out).  I think Ryu is a better option too, IMO.  But after that, Bumgarner is going to be at the top of the list.  I just think he's very likely to stay in the NL, and for good reason - I think he's at best a mid rotation SP in the AL at this point in his career.

2 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Just need Rick to buy in now ?

Yep.  I am more confident than others that the Sox will take a far more aggressive approach.  How they figure out RF and DH will be the most interesting to me.  The next week may provide some clues has to what their plans may be.  There are plenty of options on the FA market to plug 1 or 2 SP spots - depending on how they plan to handle Kopech - but the RF options on the FA market are not great for this particular team's needs.  While it seems like it should be easy to fill the DH spot - the Sox have proven that isn't really the case, so that too will be interesting.  Part of the reason I love the Grandal idea so much is that he sort of fills the DH role, and I do think a Grandal/McCann/Collins catcher and DH platoon would be pretty lethal.   I suspect Grandal will be in demand this offseason, but I guess you never know after how his offseason went.  IIRC, the Sox definitely were in contact with Grandal, so you know the interest is there.  No draft pick forfeiture this time, and while McCann has patched the catching issue momentarily, I predict serious regression offensively next season.  

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

It's easy to say pass on Bumgarner, and while I actually agree - there are only two or three clear cut better options in Cole and potentially Strasburg (he should opt out).  I think Ryu is a better option too, IMO.  But after that, Bumgarner is going to be at the top of the list.  I just think he's very likely to stay in the NL, and for good reason - I think he's at best a mid rotation SP in the AL at this point in his career.

Yep.  I am more confident than others that the Sox will take a far more aggressive approach.  How they figure out RF and DH will be the most interesting to me.  The next week may provide some clues has to what their plans may be.  There are plenty of options on the FA market to plug 1 or 2 SP spots - depending on how they plan to handle Kopech - but the RF options on the FA market are not great for this particular team's needs.  While it seems like it should be easy to fill the DH spot - the Sox have proven that isn't really the case, so that too will be interesting.  Part of the reason I love the Grandal idea so much is that he sort of fills the DH role, and I do think a Grandal/McCann/Collins catcher and DH platoon would be pretty lethal.   I suspect Grandal will be in demand this offseason, but I guess you never know after how his offseason went.  IIRC, the Sox definitely were in contact with Grandal, so you know the interest is there.  No draft pick forfeiture this time, and while McCann has patched the catching issue momentarily, I predict serious regression offensively next season.  

Bumgarner really likes the West Coast and he also enjoys hitting...think it's around 75% or higher he stays in the NL.

[wrathofhahn]

I said this years group wasn't ready and I didn't want us to waste big money on Harper and Machado. I still believe that.

Because we still don't have a good idea of how far away we are my preference would still be to do 1-2 year deals. This club still has major holes in the rotation and certain positions.

There will be bounceback guys like Porcello forced to accept 1-2 year deals. That is where our energy needs to be.

[Moan4Yoan]

42 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

I said this years group wasn't ready and I didn't want us to waste big money on Harper and Machado. I still believe that.

Because we still don't have a good idea of how far away we are my preference would still be to do 1-2 year deals. This club still has major holes in the rotation and certain positions.

There will be bounceback guys like Porcello forced to accept 1-2 year deals. That is where our energy needs to be.

We may as well resign Nova if that’s the route you want to take.  No, they need to sign some good pitching, not take more fliers on trash.  We have already seen year after year how that goes.

[Lip Man 1]

21 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

We may as well resign Nova if that’s the route you want to take.  No, they need to sign some good pitching, not take more fliers on trash.  We have already seen year after year how that goes.

hey the Giants released Derek Holland! LOL ?

[BackDoorBreach]

One of the things that has pissed me off all year is not letting guys like Fulmer and Collins get more playing time in a year that doesn't matter.  Taking fliers on guys like AJ Reed, Despaigne, Cordero, Detwiler et cetera instead of seeing what we actually have in a non competitive year is maddening.  Yeah, Fulmer probably is nothing but he should have been up all year or at least a bigger portion, he has nothing to prove in AAA, same with Collins.  JR is going to have to shell out a bunch of money in the off season and it would have been nice to see how some of these guys performed for a bigger portion of the year.  Oh well

[Jack Parkman]

2 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

One of the things that has pissed me off all year is not letting guys like Fulmer and Collins get more playing time in a year that doesn't matter.  Taking fliers on guys like AJ Reed, Despaigne, Cordero, Detwiler et cetera instead of seeing what we actually have in a non competitive year is maddening.  Yeah, Fulmer probably is nothing but he should have been up all year or at least a bigger portion, he has nothing to prove in AAA, same with Collins.  JR is going to have to shell out a bunch of money in the off season and it would have been nice to see how some of these guys performed for a bigger portion of the year.  Oh well

That being said, Fulmer has had 3 separate 2 week looks and sucked, and Collins had a 3 week look and had 2  hits, looking completely overmatched in the process. He was struggling to even make contact the majority of his PA. In his AB, he had a 53.8 K%. Kind of tells you all you need to know. 

Edited July 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[poppysox]

On 7/24/2019 at 6:23 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

They will 100% spend big money this offseason.  To me, the only free agents that seem to be a stretch are Rendon, Cole, & probably Strasburg (and I still believe they pursue both pitchers).  Ultimately I see them settling for Bumgarner (who I like but is seriously overrated around here) or Wheeler (who I think is criminally underrated here) as their primary starting pitching upgrade.  I fully expect a second rotation addition simply due to our lack of depth and Wood would be a fantastic option, although I could see them going cheaper there.  Assuming we keep Colome & Bummer, I think only one bigger bullpen addition will be needed (Betances is a guy I’d love to add) as I’d expect Lopez to likely move to the pen at some point.

I fully expect Abreu back on a two year deal (in the $25M to $30M range).  I still think they pursue Grandal to fill the left-handed void in the middle of the lineup and as a plus he won’t cost us a draft pick.  Him, McCann, & Collins could basically rotate between C & DH for half a year until Vaughn is ready.  They will also most definitely acquire a RF upgrade one way or the other, with a stopgap like Puig (until Walker or one of the AA guys is ready) a potentially cheaper option.  I do like your Nimmo trade idea as well depending on the price.

So in summary let’s say you add Bumgarner ($20M), Wood ($10M), Betances ($12M), Grandal ($20M), & Puig ($12M).  That’s ~$75M in payroll added to a base roster that’s probably sitting around ~$55M after extending Abreu and bringing back Rodon.  All in you’re looking at a payroll of ~$130M, which would basically be league average.

• Lineup: Madrigal (2B), Robert (CF), Moncada (3B), Jimenez (LF), Abreu (1B), Grandal (C/DH), Puig (RF), Anderson (SS), McCann/Collins (DH/C)
• Bench: Garcia (UT), Cordell (OF),  Mendick (IF), Collins/McCann (BC)
• Rotation: Giolito, Bumgarner, Cease, Wood, Lopez (*Kopech to start in AAA)
• Bullpen: Colome, Bummer, Betances, Fry, Herrera, Marshall/Hamilton, Covey/Banuelos (*eventually Lopez)

That seems completely doable to me and would be a team that should challenge for the AL Central title and/or second Wild Card spot in 2020.

Excellent plan and very realistic.

[caulfield12]

41 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Excellent plan and very realistic.

Very realistic if it’s approached like they did with Robertson, LaRoche and Cabrera.

If they just wait until the last minute instead of picking those guys off one by one in an organized November/December blitz of signings, they’re going to be left sorting out the Jake Odorizzis, Jonathan Schoops and CJ Crons of the free agent barrel.

Edited July 26, 2019 by caulfield12

[GGajewski18]

On 7/24/2019 at 5:23 AM, Chicago White Sox said:

They will 100% spend big money this offseason.  To me, the only free agents that seem to be a stretch are Rendon, Cole, & probably Strasburg (and I still believe they pursue both pitchers).  Ultimately I see them settling for Bumgarner (who I like but is seriously overrated around here) or Wheeler (who I think is criminally underrated here) as their primary starting pitching upgrade.  I fully expect a second rotation addition simply due to our lack of depth and Wood would be a fantastic option, although I could see them going cheaper there.  Assuming we keep Colome & Bummer, I think only one bigger bullpen addition will be needed (Betances is a guy I’d love to add) as I’d expect Lopez to likely move to the pen at some point.

I fully expect Abreu back on a two year deal (in the $25M to $30M range).  I still think they pursue Grandal to fill the left-handed void in the middle of the lineup and as a plus he won’t cost us a draft pick.  Him, McCann, & Collins could basically rotate between C & DH for half a year until Vaughn is ready.  They will also most definitely acquire a RF upgrade one way or the other, with a stopgap like Puig (until Walker or one of the AA guys is ready) a potentially cheaper option.  I do like your Nimmo trade idea as well depending on the price.

So in summary let’s say you add Bumgarner ($20M), Wood ($10M), Betances ($12M), Grandal ($20M), & Puig ($12M).  That’s ~$75M in payroll added to a base roster that’s probably sitting around ~$55M after extending Abreu and bringing back Rodon.  All in you’re looking at a payroll of ~$130M, which would basically be league average.

• Lineup: Madrigal (2B), Robert (CF), Moncada (3B), Jimenez (LF), Abreu (1B), Grandal (C/DH), Puig (RF), Anderson (SS), McCann/Collins (DH/C)
• Bench: Garcia (UT), Cordell (OF),  Mendick (IF), Collins/McCann (BC)
• Rotation: Giolito, Bumgarner, Cease, Wood, Lopez (*Kopech to start in AAA)
• Bullpen: Colome, Bummer, Betances, Fry, Herrera, Marshall/Hamilton, Covey/Banuelos (*eventually Lopez)

That seems completely doable to me and would be a team that should challenge for the AL Central title and/or second Wild Card spot in 2020.

I like the plan, but no way Kopech starts in AAA.  Honestly, Wood would probably be the swing guy in the pen and move into the rotation once Cease and Kopech's innings are met (they'll probably be on a innings limit).  

Overall, I like this plan, but I just don't see the Sox spending that much in the off season (even though they should)

[caulfield12]

21 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

I like the plan, but no way Kopech starts in AAA.  Honestly, Wood would probably be the swing guy in the pen and move into the rotation once Cease and Kopech's innings are met (they'll probably be on a innings limit).  

Overall, I like this plan, but I just don't see the Sox spending that much in the off season (even though they should)

If they want to claw back a year of control...and they don’t spend big in free agency, then there’s no pointing in pushing Kopech too hard next year in the majors.  He’s only going to throw 130-150 innings anyway.

[poppysox]

22 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Very realistic if it’s approached like they did with Robertson, LaRoche and Cabrera.

If they just wait until the last minute instead of picking those guys off one by one in an organized November/December blitz of signings, they’re going to be left sorting out the Jake Odorizzis, Jonathan Schoops and CJ Crons of the free agent barrel.

I agree...they need to identify the targets and get a move on.  Especially don't want to get caught up in Cole while passing on other viable options.  Sign em when you can.  It's easy to get sucked into chasing rainbows with the premium FA while missing out on very acceptable players.  I like using free agency for plugging holes like our RF situation.  Stars need to be home grown or traded for IMO.

[ChiSox1917]

On 7/23/2019 at 9:21 PM, Drwhoo1 said:

I am always playing catch-up since I can’t get on all the time. Just don’t have the access. Anyway, do you guys think signing big money players is the way to win? All everybody cares about is the BIG signing. It doesn’t matter what the price, you’ll be guaranteed to win. I’ve noticed some saying we’ve only had 2 big signings and it was a long time ago. How’d that work out? Why don’t you show me how that worked for other teams. I can bet that percentage is very low. I’d like to know what big signing helped win a championship. I know there are a few but like I said, the percentage is pretty small. 

The White Sox didn’t have a big signing when they won. As a matter of fact, I remember having to argue with almost everyone when Lee was traded for Podsednik. God, every talk show, would just complain about how stupid that trade was. It seemed like I was the only one to like it since it fit our team need. We had plenty of Lee’s. Anyway, going off topic, the point being, signing for big money doesn’t guarantee anything unless you were the Yankees and got everyone. 

The teams that are successful are the ones that make smart signings. We have put ourselves in a great position to sign anybody with no bad contracts being locked in. How great is that and most want to sign just because we are so low. If the right one comes along, sure but right now, how do you know what we need? I hear Grandal, really? For 14 million more he’ll make us that much better. Seems like a lateral move to me but I forget, he has the name recognition. Who cares about anything else. I do think we need a starter and possibly an OF. But until I see how they do next year, am not sure. 

The first 5-6 spots in our lineup seem to be taken. I don’t want big names. If one falls in our lap then sure. I want what fits our team need. Being this early still, not sure how anyone knows what that will be. 

Our team need is a starting pitcher that can be relied on to have an ERA 3.5 or lower and pitch 200 IP.  

So yes, we need a big free agent signing to have any shot next year