Free Agency - How confident are you?

[BamaDoc]

For a team with a budget, which like it or not our team uses/has one, is spending 30 million a year spending/investing wisely?  I am not being a dick, I am torn.  If we wouldn't go to 30 a year for a position player like Machado, I am not sure I see them doing it for a pitcher.  Google the biggest baseball contracts and many of them would cripple this franchise as the last few years of the contract are terrible or they are terrible a whole lot of the duration.  Scherzer has worked but at the time I thought it was nuts.  Would you want many of the big pitching contracts?  Honest question.  If we had a contract and performance like Darvish, I am not confident this management team would just spend past it.

[bmags]

Just now, BamaDoc said:

For a team with a budget, which like it or not our team uses/has one, is spending 30 million a year spending/investing wisely?  I am not being a dick, I am torn.  If we wouldn't go to 30 a year for a position player like Machado, I am not sure I see them doing it for a pitcher.  Google the biggest baseball contracts and many of them would cripple this franchise as the last few years of the contract are terrible or they are terrible a whole lot of the duration.  Scherzer has worked but at the time I thought it was nuts.  Would you want many of the big pitching contracts?  Honest question.  If we had a contract and performance like Darvish, I am not confident this management team would just spend past it.

I would say one thing people should keep in mind is that soxtalk has often declared a contract "untradeable" including Verlander, Greinke, etc. And not only were they tradeable, they got back decent value pieces.

The untradeable contracts are the Pujols/Cabrera's etc. But strangely the sox seem most amenable to spending big on one dimensional veteran sluggers.

[chitownsportsfan]

39 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

A lot can be overcome if you are willing to be the high bidder.  That is what Hahn can do. Supposedly Harper hated Philly, and Machado liked the east coast.  Funny how offering the most money usually gets things done.

No kidding.   And you're on the road for 5 months of the year and have the other 7 to make your home wherever the hell you want.  He can have a penthouse in Chicago or the burbs for his family and then the rest of the year live sea side in SD or LA or whatever.

Open the wallet and the FAs will come.  Win the bidding, don't just be "competitive".

[BamaDoc]

I have been looking at contracts, rosterbaiting, and thinking ahead.  In the last 10-15 years there has been a huge decrease in pitchers racking up innings.  It is now getting rare to have guys go 200 innings compared to the past.  I have seen articles addressing this but I haven't seen a breakdown of rosters and innings by starters vs pen correlated to money spent.  Does it make sense to pay starters who average 5 innings and change 20 plus million?  A true horse might be worth 30 ala Scherzer but if now 4/9 of games is pitched by bullens, maybe the superpen philosophy might work because a lot of those pens may not be costing 4/9 of the pitching budget.  

[Superstar Lamar]

3 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

The point is that people who take hours out of their days to complain about Kevan Smith, Alcides Escobar, and the Field of Dreams game aren't really fans. If you're gonna complain, at least complain about something that matters 

and my point, not directed at you but at Hahn is, smile, take my money and thank me for my patronage

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, BamaDoc said:

I have been looking at contracts, rosterbaiting, and thinking ahead.  In the last 10-15 years there has been a huge decrease in pitchers racking up innings.  It is now getting rare to have guys go 200 innings compared to the past.  I have seen articles addressing this but I haven't seen a breakdown of rosters and innings by starters vs pen correlated to money spent.  Does it make sense to pay starters who average 5 innings and change 20 plus million?  A true horse might be worth 30 ala Scherzer but if now 4/9 of games is pitched by bullens, maybe the superpen philosophy might work because a lot of those pens may not be costing 4/9 of the pitching budget.  

Just remember - inflation in baseball is far faster than inflation in the real world. the amount of money going to owners has more than doubled in the past 10 years, and player salaries have doubled over the last 15 years or so. A contract that you thought might have been a good contract in the mid-2000s needs to be doubled. 

In 2008, CC Sabathia signed a 7 year, $161 million deal. A comparable deal to that today based on salary inflation since 2008 is 7 years and nearly $250 million. 

[BamaDoc]

Balta, I agree.  Sabathia 2012-16 was 23 million per WAR.  From 8-13 he was 9 million per WAR(18 per your double).  Most big contracts have not been great for the teams.  Zito, Hampton, Sabathia , Cain, Santana, Felix Hernandez, Kevin Brown, Price, Hammels probably not worth it.  How will Lester,Arrietta, Sale, etc finish up or look in hind site?  Scherzer great, Verlander still a horse, Lester got the Cubs established but next couple years may change it.  

Many of these were big market clubs who spent and many before salary cap mattered.  Cubs,Yanks, Red Sox were all reluctant to add because even they reached cap limits they didn't want to cross.

We probably need to model more on a Brewers, Rays, A's idea with the ability to go beyond that.  Bauer going year to year may one day make sense for us.

Edited August 9, 2019 by BamaDoc
added sabathia data

[BamaDoc]

In a completely different vein, growing up you marketed your stud pitchers.  I remember Gibson, Carlton, Seaver, Ryan.  The teams of my youth had Wood, Black Jack, Hoyt, Dotsun, Bannister, Burns, our five lefties, Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras.  How does a team or MLB market 5 inning pitchers today?  How do kids identify with the seven pitcher games of today?  Personalities are marketable.  With all the pitchers today, I think we will see something like running backs in the NFL where very few are studs or have longevity.

[poppysox]

5 hours ago, SonofaRoache said:

We are in year 13 of not winning 90 games. The criticism may get to be over the top but it is to be expected. Fans are not obligated to give the people who've failed miserably a chance to prove themselves for a third, fourth, and fifth time. The only reason fans have been patient now is because they tried a new method to winning. I trust this process, but think in 2019 it shouldn't take 5 years to contend again. Competent organizations can compete in 3 or 4 years, even if it is just for an 88 win season. 

Especially when most rebuilds don't start with trading chips like Sale, Q & Eaton.

[Chicago White Sox]

8 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I get why people would be annoyed that he is talking about this in the first place, but he is 100% right that there is a substantial and growing subset of Sox "fans" on Twitter who have seemingly made it their life mission to incessantly whine about every little thing for no apparent reason while completely ignoring anything that is good. I'm not saying that there is no reason to complain, but they take it to another level and his description of them is pretty accurate. 

This applies to Soxtalk too.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

How does that indicate that when reading between the lines, Cole isn't happening, as Fathom said? 

It doesn’t, Hahn is just trying a little harder to manage expectations this time around, which he admitted he fucked up last offseason.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Just listening.  Not surprised to see you make that leap, but that is quite the leap.  The comment about where they went to college or married someone from a particular area had nothing to do with Cole.  He's just saying that there are certain things that money can't overcome - the question was not directly about Cole.  

For those that had not listened and took that comment at face value...

I mean, he basically confirmed they had discussions with Micheal Brantley this past offseason, but his focus was on winning a championship.  I don’t think his comment was about anyone specifically, just moreso reality and what they’ve dealt with in the past.

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I mean, he basically confirmed they had discussions with Micheal Brantley this past offseason, but his focus was on winning a championship.  I don’t think his comment was about anyone specifically, just moreso reality and what they’ve dealt with in the past.

Like I said, he mentioned they won’t always get the top guy and then mentioned 4 things that easily describe Cole’s situation. On a side note, I read today that Cole said he likes pitching on the west coast because he can hug his mom after those games.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, fathom said:

Like I said, he mentioned they won’t always get the top guy and then mentioned 4 things that easily describe Cole’s situation. On a side note, I read today that Cole said he likes pitching on the west coast because he can hug his mom after those games.

I’m not discrediting those things, but I still don’t think was using subliminal messaging to tell us Cole’s a no go.  He’s simply managing expectations and saying some shit is out of his control.

[Balta1701]

 

17 minutes ago, fathom said:

Like I said, he mentioned they won’t always get the top guy and then mentioned 4 things that easily describe Cole’s situation. On a side note, I read today that Cole said he likes pitching on the west coast because he can hug his mom after those games.

Managing expectations this offseason is smarter than last offseason, but seriously everyone, Cole is out for the biggest payday he can get. He's a Boras client, #1 pick, He's gone through 1 year arbitration offer deals rather than even signing an extension to cover the arb years. If you put an offer on the table that is higher than what David Price got as the largest FA pitching deal in history, you're in the conversation. 

[greg775]

3 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

In a completely different vein, growing up you marketed your stud pitchers.  I remember Gibson, Carlton, Seaver, Ryan.  The teams of my youth had Wood, Black Jack, Hoyt, Dotsun, Bannister, Burns, our five lefties, Buehrle, Garcia, Contreras.  How does a team or MLB market 5 inning pitchers today?  How do kids identify with the seven pitcher games of today?  Personalities are marketable.  With all the pitchers today, I think we will see something like running backs in the NFL where very few are studs or have longevity.

Amen Bama, it's why I said the Hall of Fame might as well close its doors to players of this generation and beyond. Nobody's going to have the numbers even close to worthy of admission. Well maybe a couple, but very very few pitchers and only a couple hitters. For when they hit 30, the retirement watch will be on. Nobody's going to want "old" players and pitchers will only be going 3-5 innings max.

[greg775]

6 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

I have been looking at contracts, rosterbaiting, and thinking ahead.  In the last 10-15 years there has been a huge decrease in pitchers racking up innings.  It is now getting rare to have guys go 200 innings compared to the past.  I have seen articles addressing this but I haven't seen a breakdown of rosters and innings by starters vs pen correlated to money spent.  Does it make sense to pay starters who average 5 innings and change 20 plus million?  A true horse might be worth 30 ala Scherzer but if now 4/9 of games is pitched by bullens, maybe the superpen philosophy might work because a lot of those pens may not be costing 4/9 of the pitching budget.  

No, it is not worth paying any starter mega millions. This goes against my motto of making Jerry pay until it hurts for players but no pitchers are worth 150 to 200 million over 5-6 years. They are too brittle and we're going to a new era where we're going to have openers on all teams before long.

[Jose Abreu]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 

Managing expectations this offseason is smarter than last offseason, but seriously everyone, Cole is out for the biggest payday he can get. He's a Boras client, #1 pick, He's gone through 1 year arbitration offer deals rather than even signing an extension to cover the arb years. If you put an offer on the table that is higher than what David Price got as the largest FA pitching deal in history, you're in the conversation. 

Yeah, I was probably one of the most vocal posters pre-2018 offseason saying that we would be right there in the mix for Machado, back when most thought we wouldn't even express interest. But I have a really hard time agreeing with the people who think Cole is a real possibility. Yes, we could afford it, but it's all about money as you alluded to and teams like the Yankees will be in the running. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Yeah, I was probably one of the most vocal posters pre-2018 offseason saying that we would be right there in the mix for Machado, back when most thought we wouldn't even express interest. But I have a really hard time agreeing with the people who think Cole is a real possibility. Yes, we could afford it, but it's all about money as you alluded to and teams like the Yankees will be in the running. 

There's no reason why the White Sox could not pay that money, they have put themselves in a position where they could, but I'm not going to bother rehashing all the reasons why they won't.

[BackDoorBreach]

4 hours ago, greg775 said:

No, it is not worth paying any starter mega millions. This goes against my motto of making Jerry pay until it hurts for players but no pitchers are worth 150 to 200 million over 5-6 years. They are too brittle and we're going to a new era where we're going to have openers on all teams before long.

Wrong.

Cole is worth close to 200 million over 6.  I have him around 6 years/180 million.

He is a lockdown starting pitcher which is something we desperately need.

[Jack Parkman]

Honestly I'd prefer that the Sox let the big boys duke it out for Cole while the they go under the radar and get something done for Strasburg/Bumgarner/Wheeler. 

Honestly if the Sox could swing it I'd like them to grab Bumgarner and Wheeler, and trade Lopez for a LH RF. 

I think they're either going to get Strasburg or Bumgarner and another back end pitcher. 

Edited August 10, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[fathom]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Honestly I'd prefer that the Sox let the big boys duke it out for Cole while the they go under the radar and get something done for Strasburg/Bumgarner/Wheeler. 

Honestly if the Sox could swing it I'd like them to grab Bumgarner and Wheeler, and trade Lopez for a LH RF. 

I think they're either going to get Strasburg or Bumgarner and another back end pitcher. 

Stras going back to San Diego makes a ton of sense

[caulfield12]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

Stras going back to San Diego makes a ton of sense

Except a Boras and Lozano are bitter enemies...but still wouldn’t be a shocker, obvious ties to SD.

[NWINFan]

6 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Honestly I'd prefer that the Sox let the big boys duke it out for Cole while the they go under the radar and get something done for Strasburg/Bumgarner/Wheeler. 

Honestly if the Sox could swing it I'd like them to grab Bumgarner and Wheeler, and trade Lopez for a LH RF. 

I think they're either going to get Strasburg or Bumgarner and another back end pitcher. 

I think this sounds good, but is there any indication that the White Sox will do this or anything like this? I am not getting my hopes up.

[Sarava]

7 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Honestly I'd prefer that the Sox let the big boys duke it out for Cole while the they go under the radar and get something done for Strasburg/Bumgarner/Wheeler. 

Honestly if the Sox could swing it I'd like them to grab Bumgarner and Wheeler, and trade Lopez for a LH RF. 

I think they're either going to get Strasburg or Bumgarner and another back end pitcher. 

This sounds highly unlikely, but yeah, that would be a huge off-season.