Free Agency - How confident are you?

[Chicago White Sox]

44 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

It’s still a larger than normal cost related to the player.  It’s not like they only signed with the Sox for $7 million like Andrew Vaughn.

I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying, but Boston covered Moncada’s signing bonus and corresponding penalty.  He’s essentially owed the minimum for us.

[Jose Abreu]

5 hours ago, soxfan2014 said:

Not even the best value on his own team. Moncada at league Minimum has a 2.9 WAR.

Maybe that’s just bWAR but Moncada has a 4.0 fWAR which I think is a better indicator of his performance this year.

 

To Greg’s question, for non-pre arbitration guys, Whit Merrifield might be the answer 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Maybe that’s just bWAR but Moncada has a 4.0 fWAR which I think is a better indicator of his performance this year.

 

To Greg’s question, for non-pre arbitration guys, Whit Merrifield might be the answer 

They’ll trade Merrifield for Madrigal.

They’re not going to accept a Rutherford or Basabe like return.

[Jose Abreu]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They’ll trade Merrifield for Madrigal.

They’re not going to accept a Rutherford or Basabe like return.

I should clarify, I was referring to Greg's question of the best "bang for your buck" player in the league. If the Royals ever trade Merrifield I think it would take even more than just Madrigal. 

[caulfield12]

55 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I should clarify, I was referring to Greg's question of the best "bang for your buck" player in the league. If the Royals ever trade Merrifield I think it would take even more than just Madrigal. 

I’d go with Ketel Marte this season.

[Bob Sacamano]

4 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Is Moncada technically league minimum?  He got guaranteed money up front like Robert, which the Sox are paying.

That's a signing bonus so yes, he would count. As it does college/high school draftees who sign a bomus. Hes still earning a league minimum salary.

Edited August 12, 2019 by soxfan2014

[Sarava]

On 8/11/2019 at 4:08 PM, Moan4Yoan said:

Is Moncada technically league minimum?  He got guaranteed money up front like Robert, which the Sox are paying.

Are you sure the Sox are paying this? I seem to recall from the time of the trade that the Red Sox paid or are paying all of that signing bonus.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Sarava said:

Are you sure the Sox are paying this? I seem to recall from the time of the trade that the Red Sox paid or are paying all of that signing bonus.

The signing bonus was spread out over three years, but the Red Sox sent over cash to cover it all.  We aren’t on the hook for anything but his current salaries.

[steveno89]

On 8/11/2019 at 8:03 PM, caulfield12 said:

They’ll trade Merrifield for Madrigal.

They’re not going to accept a Rutherford or Basabe like return.

Key to this rebuild will be riding out inexpensive players like Madrigal/Vaughn/Robert/our young pitching while supplementing with more expensive veterans via free agency/trade. 

We have to imagine they plan on going after some combination of Cole/Bumgarner/Odorizzi/Wheeler/Keuchel/Strasburg/Ryu/Wood

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Key to this rebuild will be riding out inexpensive players like Madrigal/Vaughn/Robert/our young pitching while supplementing with more expensive veterans via free agency/trade. 

We have to imagine they plan on going after some combination of Cole/Bumgarner/Odorizzi/Wheeler/Keuchel/Strasburg/Ryu/Wood

Yeah, the Royals won’t give Merrifield away to a divisional rival...unless we generously overpaid.

They have to put their faith in those three minor leaguers, period.  Trading prospects for veterans almost never works, unless it’s for a finishing piece when you already know exactly what you have and need. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Sometimes the best signings are the ones not made. Sox dodged a bullet with the Machado monstrosity of a contract. I’d hope they instead put that money towards reinforcing the pitching over the next two winters. It would also be nice to improve the black hole in RF.

[Jack Parkman]

30 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Sometimes the best signings are the ones not made. Sox dodged a bullet with the Machado monstrosity of a contract. I’d hope they instead put that money towards reinforcing the pitching over the next two winters. It would also be nice to improve the black hole in RF.

A lot of us think they're going to trade for Nomar Mazara. The only question is what will it cost? 

Edited August 13, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Sometimes the best signings are the ones not made. Sox dodged a bullet with the Machado monstrosity of a contract. I’d hope they instead put that money towards reinforcing the pitching over the next two winters. It would also be nice to improve the black hole in RF.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11493&position=3B

Machado is on course for a 4 fWAR season, which is a bit of a disappointment but not a disaster.  By value terms, at $8-9 million per war for free agents, it’s hardly bad at all.  He also had to play SS for five weeks this year, and filled in much better than last year at that spot.

It’s not the 6+ of last season, but they’re not in their contention window until next year or 2021.

The bulk of their remaining minor league talent is in pitching, particularly Gore and Patino.

No franchise should ever apologize to its fans for adding a superstar at age 26.  In the end, they still have three to build around (Paddack, Machado, Tatis).

They also built in an “out” after five years.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11493&position=3B

Machado is on course for a 4 fWAR season, which is a bit of a disappointment but not a disaster.  By value terms, at $8-9 million per war for free agents, it’s hardly bad at all.  He also had to play SS for five weeks this year, and filled in much better than last year at that spot.

It’s not the 6+ of last season, but they’re not in their contention window until next year or 2021.

The bulk of their remaining minor league talent is in pitching, particularly Gore and Patino.

No franchise should ever apologize to its fans for adding a superstar at age 26.  In the end, they still have three to build around (Paddack, Machado, Tatis).

They also built in an “out” after five years.

He’s 14th out of 24 qualified MLB 3b in fWAR. This in the first of his “prime” years (age 27, just wait for the last 5 years of that contract ?). How is that anything but a disappointment for a player earning top 5 in the league in both total contract value and AAV?

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

He’s 14th out of 24 qualified MLB 3b in fWAR. This in the first of his “prime” years (age 27, just wait for the last 5 years of that contract ?). How is that anything but a disappointment for a player earning top 5 in the league in both total contract value and AAV?

How many of those 13 players were available this offseason?  It was basically Manny and Donaldson.  You have to have a stud there to compete in today’s game...the White Sox have Moncada and he simply blends in with that Top 15, yet he’s far and away the most valuable position player in the organization (although Robert today might have more trade/surplus value.)

Besides, it’s nothing compared to the Harper problem in Philly...and the Padres didn’t sign him for 2019, they signed him for next year and beyond.  They also signed him as a mentor for Tatis, Jr., and that’s already starting to pay dividends.

If he was at 6 fWAR again this year, they’d simply be drafting 2-3 places lower in the first round.  In the end, this move will be judged on the Padres making it back to the playoffs.  They’re already ahead of the Rockies, and will pass SFG when Bumgarner departs.

They were never going to compete this year with the Dodgers, but the 11-5 start fooled some.   Just too much inexperience on the pitching side.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

How many of those 13 players were available this offseason?  It was basically Manny and Donaldson.  You have to have a stud there to compete in today’s game...the White Sox have Moncada and he simply blends in with that Top 15, yet he’s far and away the most valuable position player in the organization (although Robert today might have more trade/surplus value.)

Besides, it’s nothing compared to the Harper problem in Philly...and the Padres didn’t sign him for 2019, they signed him for next year and beyond.  They also signed him as a mentor for Tatis, Jr., and that’s already starting to pay dividends.

If he was at 6 fWAR again this year, they’d simply be drafting 2-3 places lower in the first round.  In the end, this move will be judged on the Padres making it back to the playoffs.  They’re already ahead of the Rockies, and will pass SFG when Bumgarner departs.

They were never going to compete this year with the Dodgers, but the 11-5 start fooled some.   Just too much inexperience on the pitching side.

They aren’t catching the Dodgers next year either...best case scenario, they are competing for a wild card like the White Sox.

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

They aren’t catching the Dodgers next year either...best case scenario, they are competing for a wild card like the White Sox.

When you have to compete against one of the most successful organizations in baseball history, bold steps are required to get your fanbase to buy in again after missing the playoffs for well over a decade.

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

When you have to compete against one of the most successful organizations in baseball history, bold steps are required to get your fanbase to buy in again after missing the playoffs for well over a decade.

 

Bold doesn’t mean act foolish. The Padres two big signings the last two winters have accounted for 2.9 fWAR this season at a cost of $50M. I don’t think that’s very good value...

[caulfield12]

23 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Bold doesn’t mean act foolish. The Padres two big signings the last two winters have accounted for 2.9 fWAR this season at a cost of $50M. I don’t think that’s very good value...

They’ve also gotten 5.3 fWAR just this season for the joy of trading away James Shields and Fernando Rodney.

But yeah, usually trading for 1B/DH types...especially on $140+ million contracts, isn’t wise.   You would have made a better argument combining the $$$ for Myers and Shields to get just 0.7 fWAR.  

Which is pretty much the sum of the value the White Sox received from Nova, Santana, Alonso, Jay and Herrera for roughly the same amount this year.

Edited August 14, 2019 by caulfield12

[Moan4Yoan]

3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Bold doesn’t mean act foolish. The Padres two big signings the last two winters have accounted for 2.9 fWAR this season at a cost of $50M. I don’t think that’s very good value...

Dumping some of the contract of a washed up starting pitcher for a dirt cheap 20 year old phenom SS allowed them to spend elsewhere.  But yeah, the Hosmer signing was bad from day one.  You don’t pay big bucks for a 1B who doesn’t hit a lot of homers.  However, I still think the Machado signing will be fine.

Edited August 14, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

They’ve also gotten 5.3 fWAR just this season for the joy of trading away James Shields and Fernando Rodney.

But yeah, usually trading for 1B/DH types...especially on $140+ million contracts, isn’t wise.   You would have made a better argument combining the $$$ for Myers and Shields to get just 0.7 fWAR.  

Which is pretty much the sum of the value the White Sox received from Nova, Santana, Alonso, Jay and Herrera for roughly the same amount this year.

I thought this thread was about free agency? The only guys mentioned above who were acquired via free agency are Santana, Jay, and Herrera and those three aren’t even in the same stratosphere (total $$$ and AAav) when compared to the Hosmer and Machado signings. Getting two $100M+ signings wrong is crippling for a franchise like SD (or the White Sox for that matter).

[caulfield12]

37 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I thought this thread was about free agency? The only guys mentioned above who were acquired via free agency are Santana, Jay, and Herrera and those three aren’t even in the same stratosphere (total $$$ and AAav) when compared to the Hosmer and Machado signings. Getting two $100M+ signings wrong is crippling for a franchise like SD (or the White Sox for that matter).

If every free agent is worth approximately $9 million on the free agent market and Machado will finish the year around 4 at his current pace, then what’s the problem?

How are they crippled?  They’re all the way up to 14th in attendance, which is well above any AL Central team.

They only have a payroll of $97 million, which is about $27.5 million less than the average MLB opening day payroll.

They can carry those contracts (Machado, Hosmer and Shields) and still have room to add a veteran starting pitcher because the rest of their payroll is comprised of mostly 1st to 3rd year players, with the exception of Kirby Yates.

 

By your argument, we shouldn’t sign any big free agents because, as Balta has pointed out numerous times, the majority go against the teams that signed them and can occasionally be franchise crippling.

That said, if we were crippled by Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and John Danks, then just sell the franchise and enjoy the profits so White Sox fans can move on.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

If every free agent is worth approximately $9 million on the free agent market and Machado will finish the year around 4 at his current pace, then what’s the problem?

How are they crippled?  They’re all the way up to 14th in attendance, which is well above any AL Central team.

They only have a payroll of $97 million, which is about $27.5 million less than the average MLB opening day payroll.

They can carry those contracts (Machado, Hosmer and Shields) and still have room to add a veteran starting pitcher because the rest of their payroll is comprised of mostly 1st to 3rd year players, with the exception of Kirby Yates.

 

By your argument, we shouldn’t sign any big free agents because, as Balta has pointed out numerous times, the majority go against the teams that signed them and can occasionally be franchise crippling.

That said, if we were crippled by Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and John Danks, then just sell the franchise and enjoy the profits so White Sox fans can move on.

The problem is they are about to get ~4 fWAR for ~$50M spent this season on their two premier free agent signings in what most would consider their “prime” age seasons. Do you expect their production to increase as they age over the next 6-9 years of their contracts? If this is their production during their prime years and they are only getting ~4 fWAR from two guys that account for ~35-45% of the team payroll, that’s a big problem for the Padres now and in the future.

[Jack Parkman]

MadBum turning up the jets down the stretch. Dude is just a winner and elevates his game when the team needs him most. I hope he's willing to leave the west coast. I'd love to have a guy like him here and he wouldn't break the bank as much as Cole or Strasburg. 

That being said, he's spent his entire career in an extreme pitchers park and who knows what he'd do in a bandbox like GRF. 

GRF is weird in that it gives up a ton of HR but otherwise suppresses XBH, leading to a neutral park factor. 

Edited August 14, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

35 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

MadBum turning up the jets down the stretch. Dude is just a winner and elevates his game when the team needs him most. I hope he's willing to leave the west coast. I'd love to have a guy like him here and he wouldn't break the bank as much as Cole or Strasburg. 

That being said, he's spent his entire career in an extreme pitchers park and who knows what he'd do in a bandbox like GRF. 

GRF is weird in that it gives up a ton of HR but otherwise suppresses XBH, leading to a neutral park factor. 

He'd be a very interesting fit except he has this issue with people celebrating home runs that makes me concerned about his fit in the locker room with this roster.