Free Agency - How confident are you?

[Jack Parkman]

19 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He'd be a very interesting fit except he has this issue with people celebrating home runs that makes me concerned about his fit in the locker room with this roster. 

I agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment. It's a risk I'd be willing to take though. 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The problem is they are about to get ~4 fWAR for ~$50M spent this season on their two premier free agent signings in what most would consider their “prime” age seasons. Do you expect their production to increase as they age over the next 6-9 years of their contracts? If this is their production during their prime years and they are only getting ~4 fWAR from two guys that account for ~35-45% of the team payroll, that’s a big problem for the Padres now and in the future.

How is that negative fWAR?  You mean estimated?

They’re going to get roughly 4.5 for Machado and Hosmer.  Not great, but hardly crippling with the remainder of their roster construction.

Balta would tell you that rate of return for Hahn FA signings (had Hahn inked them) definitely is not bad compared to his historical record.

Machado had 21.7 over his previous 4 seasons for an average of 5.4, which would obviously be better than 4.  It’s not like he’s repeating 2017, though.

The real problems are Hosmer and Myers, but Myers was good last year and they traded Reyes in order to open up more playing time and bring in an exciting prospect in Taylor Trammell.  They got Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney, and an unnamed SS for virtually nothing.

The moral of the story is don’t overpay 1B/DH/corner outfielders in free agency.  That said, the White Sox have and still face the same problem.   The Yankees solved it by coming up with Tauchman and Urshela.   The Dodgers with Muncy, Taylor and Turner.  

The best organizations fill roster holes or cover up payroll issues by innovating and exploiting niches.

Can Rick Hahn do the same?

Edited August 14, 2019 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

MadBum turning up the jets down the stretch. Dude is just a winner and elevates his game when the team needs him most. I hope he's willing to leave the west coast. I'd love to have a guy like him here and he wouldn't break the bank as much as Cole or Strasburg. 

That being said, he's spent his entire career in an extreme pitchers park and who knows what he'd do in a bandbox like GRF. 

GRF is weird in that it gives up a ton of HR but otherwise suppresses XBH, leading to a neutral park factor. 

Bumgarner’s pitching so well down the stretch he’s adding another year and $20-30 million onto his contract demands.

Of course, he could end up similar to Keuchel if he gets too greedy and isn’t totally honest about future vs. present/past values.  Lots of FA’s have too much pride and feel they should be getting bank for 2010/12/14 when it’s now five years in the past.

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

How is that negative fWAR?  You mean estimated?

They’re going to get roughly 4.5 for Machado and Hosmer.  Not great, but hardly crippling with the remainder of their roster construction.

Balta would tell you that rate of return for Hahn FA signings (had Hahn inked them) definitely is not bad compared to his historical record.

Machado had 21.7 over his previous 4 seasons for an average of 5.4, which would obviously be better than 4.  It’s not like he’s repeating 2017, though.

The real problems are Hosmer and Myers, but Myers was good last year and they traded Reyes in order to open up more playing time and bring in an exciting prospect in Taylor Trammell.  They got Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney, and an unnamed SS for virtually nothing.

The moral of the story is don’t overpay 1B/DH/corner outfielders in free agency.  That said, the White Sox have and still face the same problem.   The Yankees solved it by coming up with Tauchman and Urshela.   The Dodgers with Muncy, Taylor and Turner.  

The best organizations fill roster holes or cover up payroll issues by innovating and exploiting niches.

Can Rick Hahn do the same?

Yes, estimated. Padres season is 73.5% complete. Those two guys stand at 3.0 fWAR currently. My math shows 4.08 fWAR or ~4 fWAR at season’s end based on their current rate of production.

If the Sox make two splashy signings this winter (say Madbum and Strasburg because god knows they need starting pitching help), you would be satisfied if those two guys combined for 4 fWAR next season? That’s a very low bar to set for two high profile FA signings.

[Hatchetman]

Quick glance at WAR numbers around the league, we'd need to increase team WAR by at least 15 to be in the category of playoff contenders.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Yes, estimated. Padres season is 73.5% complete. Those two guys stand at 3.0 fWAR currently. My math shows 4.08 fWAR or ~4 fWAR at season’s end based on their current rate of production.

If the Sox make two splashy signings this winter (say Madbum and Strasburg because god knows they need starting pitching help), you would be satisfied if those two guys combined for 4 fWAR next season? That’s a very low bar to set for two high profile FA signings.

Pick any position players besides Grandal and Rendon and the same is likely to occur...and even Grandal will hit an aging curve unless he spends more time at DH/1B, where his value is lowered substantially.

I’m not being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to pick the right free agents, Hahn is.

And those two players weren’t as crippling as Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche turned out to be...and trading Semien/Bassitt for Shark.  Those moves are what basically forced the rebuild, because the Sox had nothing in their minor league system to fall back on.

And the White Sox are never going to shell out $175-225 million on two free agent pitchers anyway.  You would have gotten more believers that we were going to sign Machado and Harper than the two pitchers you just named.

 

So your suggestion is to do what exactly...they have nobody to trade that’s not critical to the rebuild?

Edited August 14, 2019 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

13 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Pick any position players besides Grandal and Rendon and the same is likely to occur...and even Grandal will hit an aging curve unless he spends more time at DH/1B, where his value is lowered substantially.

I’m not being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to pick the right free agents, Hahn is.

And those two players weren’t as crippling as Robertson, Cabrera and LaRoche turned out to be...and trading Semien/Bassitt for Shark.  Those moves are what basically forced the rebuild, because the Sox had nothing in their minor league system to fall back on.

And the White Sox are never going to shell out $175-225 million on two free agent pitchers anyway.  You would have gotten more believers that we were going to sign Machado and Harper than the two pitchers you just named.

 

So your suggestion is to do what exactly...they have nobody to trade that’s not critical to the rebuild?

Sign pitching (multiple starters and relievers) and a RF (Puig most likely).

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Sign pitching (multiple starters and relievers) and a RF (Puig most likely).

And that worked fine in 2004-05, but most of that was just dumb luck, because it has only been repeated once in 14 years.

Hahn tries that every year and we ended up with Nova, Santana and Banuelos.  

The logical thing is to sign one first tier guy and then someone like a Wood or Wacha and hope for a rebound.  The problem is we almost always get 2-3 guys who nobody would put on a top ten list (other than Dunn and Robertson) and just hope for the best.

Puig, Castellanos (price rising by the day) and Ozuna are three obvious choices, but none are LH and the first two should give you 1.5-2.0ish fWAR But not really move the bar all that much, either.

God knows what Puig would do to the clubhouse chemistry when he doesn’t have a firm hand like Francona to rein him in.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2019 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

I'm fairly confident that at least one ace will emerge from the Giolito/Kopech/Cease trio. There is a decent chance they get two. I'm not as concerned about a TOR starter as most here. Wheeler or Bumgarner are fine with me. The only thing they need is a couple 2-4 WAR pitchers. Honest to god I'd give Lopez one more year and if that doesn't work I'd bring back Quintana. 

Edited August 14, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

And that worked fine in 2004-05, but most of that was just dumb luck, because it has only been repeated once in 14 years.

Hahn tries that every year and we ended up with Nova, Santana and Banuelos.  

The logical thing is to sign one first tier guy and then someone like a Wood or Wacha and hope for a rebound.  The problem is we almost always get 2-3 guys who nobody would put on a top ten list (other than Dunn and Robertson) and just hope for the best.

Puig, Castellanos (price rising by the day) and Ozuna are three obvious choices, but none are LH and the first two should give you 1.5-2.0ish fWAR But not really move the bar all that much, either.

God knows what Puig would do to the clubhouse chemistry when he doesn’t have a firm hand like Francona to rein him in.

 

 

I’m not advocating for signing the lowest tier of free agent starting pitchers. Sox should have plenty of cash to pick 2 from the following group:

Cole, Madbum, Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, Keuchel, Strasburg.

Any two of those would be a tremendous upgrade to the rotation and the Sox should certainly be able to afford it based on current payroll obligations. Puig would be a fine option for the present black hole in RF and he’d be among fellow Cubans as teammates. Spectacular? No but an immediate and noticeable upgrade over what they’ve put out there this season.

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m not advocating for signing the lowest tier of free agent starting pitchers. Sox should have plenty of cash to pick 2 from the following group:

Cole, Madbum, Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, Keuchel, Strasburg.

Any two of those would be a tremendous upgrade to the rotation and the Sox should certainly be able to afford it based on current payroll obligations. Puig would be a fine option for the present black hole in RF and he’d be among fellow Cubans as teammates. Spectacular? No but an immediate and noticeable upgrade over what they’ve put out there this season.

Keuchel hasn’t been good with the Braves, but it’s hard to get a full measure of all those players who ended up beginning at mid season...the majority of time, it goes disastrously, and that’s been the case for Kimbrel as well.  How much is aging/lost stuff and how much is rustiness will take until next April/May to sort out.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Keuchel hasn’t been good with the Braves, but it’s hard to get a full measure of all those players who ended up beginning at mid season...the majority of time, it goes disastrously, and that’s been the case for Kimbrel as well.  How much is aging/lost stuff and how much is rustiness will take until next April/May to sort out.

Keuchel would be a fine #4/5. A certain upgrade over the likes of Covey, Detweiler, Banuelos, etc.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Keuchel would be a fine #4/5. A certain upgrade over the likes of Covey, Detweiler, Banuelos, etc.

Except he’s on your Tier A list...he has the “brand” name, but you’re still paying a 25% premium for that alone.

Ideally, they should get at least one guy you could squint and say belongs in the front of a strong MLB rotation.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

16 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Except he’s on your Tier A list...he has the “brand” name, but you’re still paying a 25% premium for that alone.

Ideally, they should get at least one guy you could squint and say belongs in the front of a strong MLB rotation.

Tier A is Cole and Strasburg. The rest are Tier B.

[steveno89]

15 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Tier A is Cole and Strasburg. The rest are Tier B.

I do wonder how the tax vote next year might impact us in free agency. Any decent agent would advise their clients that Illinois might be substantially increasing the state income tax, making it a less desirable place to sign? 

While perhaps not a primary concern, I'm sure this will come up if it passes.

[Dick Allen]

25 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I do wonder how the tax vote next year might impact us in free agency. Any decent agent would advise their clients that Illinois might be substantially increasing the state income tax, making it a less desirable place to sign? 

While perhaps not a primary concern, I'm sure this will come up if it passes.

They don't have a problem signing them in CA. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

They don't have a problem signing them in CA. 

Or New York

[steveno89]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Or New York

True and true, but it may become more of a factor than previously

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/these-states-may-attract-athletes-after-tax-law-change/

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

On 8/14/2019 at 12:14 PM, Jack Parkman said:

I'm fairly confident that at least one ace will emerge from the Giolito/Kopech/Cease trio. There is a decent chance they get two. I'm not as concerned about a TOR starter as most here. Wheeler or Bumgarner are fine with me. The only thing they need is a couple 2-4 WAR pitchers. Honest to god I'd give Lopez one more year and if that doesn't work I'd bring back Quintana. 

Sure you can be confident on or 2 emerging all you want but when is the question ? You can't wait on the when and that's why a TOR starter is necessary now.

[fathom]

Passan was just on ESPN1000. He said something is seriously wrong if the Sox don’t go after Cole. He did mention the Yanks, Astros and Angels as teams that will be in on him.  He thought he would want to go higher than 8/240.

[Jose Abreu]

Just now, fathom said:

Passan was just on ESPN1000. He said something is seriously wrong if the Sox don’t go after Cole. He did mention the Yanks, Astros and Angels as teams that will be in on him.  He thought he would want to go higher than 8/240.

I'm fine with something being "seriously wrong" if that's what he's getting... 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I'm fine with something being "seriously wrong" if that's what he's getting... 

That's right around my guess for his contract value. 

[Jose Abreu]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That's right around my guess for his contract value. 

It's fair from a value standpoint, but in the same way that 12/650+ is fair for Trout instead of 12/428, or 10/350+ is fair for Machado instead of 10/300. I feel like the $/WAR calculations always end up being a little too optimistic in terms of what the player actually gets. I see Cole getting more like 7/225 but could be wrong. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

It's fair from a value standpoint, but in the same way that 12/650+ is fair for Trout instead of 12/428, or 10/350+ is fair for Machado instead of 10/300. I feel like the $/WAR calculations always end up being a little too optimistic in terms of what the player actually gets. I see Cole getting more like 7/225 but could be wrong. 

I could believe that too. I think the difference between those 2 contracts seems fairly minor. If I was willing to go to 7/$225 I'd probably do the 8/$240 just to make sure I got him. 

[BackDoorBreach]

8/240 wew.  Don't mind the money but 8 years with no opt outs is a risk.

6/180-200 would be where I'd want him. Either way if that's going to be the asking price they need to pull the trigger.