Free Agency - How confident are you?

[Jack Parkman]

27 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Also, from this exact thread, 50 hours ago... 

Are we saying that being optimistic and giving a valid criticism of the organization are mutually exclusive? I still think the Sox are in good shape, they have a metric shit ton of high end talent. Talent can overcome some of these things, but with lesser talented players than some of the guys the Sox have having proper information could be the difference from Adam Engel being a AAAA guy to being a valuable 4th OF. Those little things go a long way. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, poppysox said:

This is a valid presumption.

They traded for pitching depth because pitchers have risk.

They also traded for elite position players but that doesnt mean they wouldnt try to acquire another one.

I'd guess the Sox sign TWO arms from the not-Cole list. Wheeler is my safest bet but not sure on the other ones.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

They traded for pitching depth because pitchers have risk.

They also traded for elite position players but that doesnt mean they wouldnt try to acquire another one.

I'd guess the Sox sign TWO arms from the not-Cole list. Wheeler is my safest bet but not sure on the other ones.

What would you be willing to give Wheeler?  4/$80M seems like a very real possibility IMO and something that I’d do in a heartbeat.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Are we saying that being optimistic and giving a valid criticism of the organization are mutually exclusive? I still think the Sox are in good shape, they have a metric shit ton of high end talent. Talent can overcome some of these things, but with lesser talented players than some of the guys the Sox have having proper information could be the difference from Adam Engel being a AAAA guy and being a valuable 4th OF. Those little things go a long way. 

Adam Engel was a late draft pick. How is he a critique of the White Sox development? If anything, he's proof against your point. 

The Sox made a significant change to maximize Yoan Moncada that the Red Sox did not. Where is the respect for things like that?

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yeah, you're so infatuated with the scouting report/metric angle that you completely ignore that MANY players do not want information overload. 

Go read Greinkes quotes on analytics.

Individualized development PLANS and improvement plans is what players need from analytics. Scouting reports have not evolved much over the past decade. Pitch tendencies, and etc, arent new metrics and scouting reports for individual games and pitchers should NOT be extensive and long because you receive them frequently and overthinking is as dangerous as under thinking.

What has evolved in baseball is individualized data and analytics to develop and grow personally. 

Also, colleges have about 20 reports a year to divvy out - because you get one per series. You have all week to "study it" and it's a part of the learning process. 

You seem to think a scouting report for upcoming games is a lot more important than it is. Analytics have helped individualize development and growth bases on key metrics and tells - it has not growing, substantially, the daily scouting reports.

You have no arguments from me there. I get the overthinking/underthinking stuff because I'm always in a quest for more info, but sometimes having too much is counterproductive. I know that from personal experience. When I talk about advanced scouting reports I'm thinking of something like those fangraphs heat maps where it shows where a pitcher should pitch if they're in trouble. Pitching is always a feel, at bat to at bat type thing. I watch games and watch someone be consistently late on a fastball and the Sox catchers speed up the hitter's bat with a changeup. Stupid stuff like that pisses me off. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

What would you be willing to give Wheeler?  4/$80M seems like a very real possibility IMO and something that I’d do in a heartbeat.

Wheeler has a good amount of risk tied to him, and with his less than stellar actuals this year (his advanced numbers are good) he may take a small hit. I wouldn't be shocked to see a 3/65 with a 4th year PO for 20 million. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You have no arguments from me there. I get the overthinking/underthinking stuff because I'm always in a quest for more info, but sometimes having too much is counterproductive. I know that from personal experience. When I talk about advanced scouting reports I'm thinking of something like those fangraphs heat maps where it shows where a pitcher should pitch if they're in trouble. Pitching is always a feel, at bat to at bat type thing. I watch games and watch someone be consistently late on a fastball and the Sox catchers speed up the hitter's bat with a changeup. Stupid stuff like that pisses me off. 

Theres nothing advanced about a heat map, pitch/count tendencies, pitch progression as the lineup turns over and etc. The advancements made to scouting reports were individualizing them based on player skill sets - even that isn't that advanced.

Jack I think you took that Madrigal comment wrong. Scouting reports for games are the least concern I have from an analytics standpoint.

Do you think a pitcher should just throw fastballs until the guy times it? Speeding up the bat is terminology that drives me nuts. Changing speeds are what keeps life to a fastball. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Adam Engel was a late draft pick. How is he a critique of the White Sox development? If anything, he's proof against your point. 

The Sox made a significant change to maximize Yoan Moncada that the Red Sox did not. Where is the respect for things like that?

Yeah, it's significant because that was one of those things that is counterintuitive. One of Moncada's biggest strengths is his zone recognition but you can't expect him to have a better grasp of the strike zone than the Umpires. That is something that shouldn't have to happen. They actually neutered one of his biggest strengths because Umpires are awful at their job. I understand why he did it, but it should just be a temporary adjustment until he gets some iota of respect from the Umpires. Watching strike one down the middle of the plate is stupid for every hitter tbh. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Theres nothing advanced about a heat map, pitch/count tendencies, pitch progression as the lineup turns over and etc. The advancements made to scouting reports were individualizing them based on player skill sets - even that isn't that advanced.

Jack I think you took that Madrigal comment wrong. Scouting reports for games are the least concern I have from an analytics standpoint.

Do you think a pitcher should just throw fastballs until the guy times it? Speeding up the bat is terminology that drives me nuts. Changing speeds are what keeps life to a fastball. 

No, but I think that breaking balls are a better option than a changeup in that situation. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah, it's significant because that was one of those things that is counterintuitive. One of Moncada's biggest strengths is his zone recognition but you can't expect him to have a better grasp of the strike zone than the Umpires. That is something that shouldn't have to happen. They actually neutered one of his biggest strengths because Umpires are awful at their job. I understand why he did it, but it should just be a temporary adjustment until he gets some iota of respect from the Umpires. Watching strike one down the middle of the plate is stupid for every hitter tbh. 

You say you hope his change is temporary and then you say watching strike one down the middle is stupid for every hitter. I'm confused.

[poppysox]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

They traded for pitching depth because pitchers have risk.

They also traded for elite position players but that doesnt mean they wouldnt try to acquire another one.

I'd guess the Sox sign TWO arms from the not-Cole list. Wheeler is my safest bet but not sure on the other ones.

TOR starters cost a fortune in free agency.  Positional stars cost a fortune in free agency.  I was agreeing with the idea that the Sox tried to get TOR starters and positional stars with the trades that jumpstarted the rebuild.  Free agency will  in my opinion be used for positional strengthening like RF and two rotation starters rather than paying for TOR people like Cole.

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You say you hope his change is temporary and then you say watching strike one down the middle is stupid for every hitter. I'm confused.

Because they don't always throw strike one down the middle. sometimes strike one is in a tough spot to hit. It's weird. More often than not though, if you swing at strike one down the middle you're making an out anyway. It's a weird balance. You have to get your pitch in that spot. A lot of hitters aren't expecting a breaking ball on pitch one of an at bat. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jose Abreu]

17 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Are we saying that being optimistic and giving a valid criticism of the organization are mutually exclusive? I still think the Sox are in good shape, they have a metric shit ton of high end talent. Talent can overcome some of these things, but with lesser talented players than some of the guys the Sox have having proper information could be the difference from Adam Engel being a AAAA guy to being a valuable 4th OF. Those little things go a long way. 

I'm referring to how you said you were no longer a negative nancy and then declared that the Sox are the worst organization in the league from an analytics standpoint based on a throwaway comment from Nick Madrigal 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I'm referring to how you said you were no longer a negative nancy and then declared that the Sox are the worst organization in the league from an analytics standpoint based on a throwaway comment from Nick Madrigal 

Based on individual game scouting reports, at that.

Edited August 26, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I'm referring to how you said you were no longer a negative nancy and then declared that the Sox are the worst organization in the league from an analytics standpoint based on a throwaway comment from Nick Madrigal 

You know, that isn't an unpopular opinion on this board. I thought that was pretty much accepted as common knowledge. At best, most people think the Sox are bottom 5 in that regard. 

I have no way of knowing for sure, but it's pretty obvious that they don't use it. Especially when you have comments from Ricky and Hawk over the years. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

8 minutes ago, poppysox said:

TOR starters cost a fortune in free agency.  Positional stars cost a fortune in free agency.  I was agreeing with the idea that the Sox tried to get TOR starters and positional stars with the trades that jumpstarted the rebuild.  Free agency will  in my opinion be used for positional strengthening like RF and two rotation starters rather than paying for TOR people like Cole.

I think it's the money combined with the years with pitchers. 

Giving 6 years to a pitcher is rough; giving 8 is absurdity.

[Balta1701]

6 minutes ago, poppysox said:

TOR starters cost a fortune in free agency.  Positional stars cost a fortune in free agency.  I was agreeing with the idea that the Sox tried to get TOR starters and positional stars with the trades that jumpstarted the rebuild.  Free agency will  in my opinion be used for positional strengthening like RF and two rotation starters rather than paying for TOR people like Cole.

One of our previous lessons that I wish the franchise would have learned (And I fear they did not) is that the middle part of the Free Agent market, positional players, that area has for the last decade been an absolute wasteland. I haven't looked at the numbers this year, but in 2018, out of guys who signed for deals between $10-$25 million annual value, something like 50-75% underperformed what they were being paid. I think the numbers are a little better this year, but that part of the FA market is just genuinely bad. meanwhile, out of the top level on the FA market you have guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Verlander - they're expensive but you get what you're paying for and the player remains movable even 5 years into the deal. There are some iffy ones like Price, but compare the very top guys to the next level and the very top guys are far more likely to be worth their money.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think it's the money combined with the years with pitchers. 

Giving 6 years to a pitcher is rough; giving 8 is absurdity.

Besides that, I'm pretty confident in Giolito and Kopech being TOR starters. they should grab someone like Bumgarner or Wheeler that wouldn't be as expensive. I keep going to Bumgarner because the Sox are absolutely devoid of LHP starter options in the minors. 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Besides that, I'm pretty confident in Giolito and Kopech being TOR starters. they should grab someone like Bumgarner or Wheeler that wouldn't be as expensive. I keep going to Bumgarner because the Sox are absolutely devoid of LHP starter options in the minors. 

Wheeler >>>>>> Bumgarner IMO

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

One of our previous lessons that I wish the franchise would have learned (And I fear they did not) is that the middle part of the Free Agent market, positional players, that area has for the last decade been an absolute wasteland. I haven't looked at the numbers this year, but in 2018, out of guys who signed for deals between $10-$25 million annual value, something like 50-75% underperformed what they were being paid. I think the numbers are a little better this year, but that part of the FA market is just genuinely bad. meanwhile, out of the top level on the FA market you have guys like Greinke, Scherzer, Verlander - they're expensive but you get what you're paying for and the player remains movable even 5 years into the deal. There are some iffy ones like Price, but compare the very top guys to the next level and the very top guys are far more likely to be worth their money.

Harper and Machado were supposed to be the best value since ARod and Manny Ramirez and they're already underperforming at 27. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Wheeler >>>>>> Bumgarner IMO

I disagree. Wheeler's always hurt, and he's had a pretty bad season. Stuff wise? I agree completely. Durability and Reliability? I'd take Bumgarner easily. Bumgarner got hurt in a freak accident that wasn't baseball related. He's been durable and reliable besides that. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jose Abreu]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You know, that isn't an unpopular opinion on this board. I thought that was pretty much accepted as common knowledge. At best, most people think the Sox are bottom 5 in that regard. 

I have no way of knowing for sure, but it's pretty obvious that they don't use it. Especially when you have comments from Ricky and Hawk over the years. 

They're certainly lacking in that regard but saying they're the worst is an overstatement, IMO. I'm sure that their use of analytics has something to do with the offensive emergence of Moncada and Anderson, as well as the turnarounds by Sheets, Stiever, Luis Gonzalez, and others in the minors. It can't all be luck 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jose Abreu

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

They're certainly lacking in that regard but saying they're the worst is an overstatement, IMO. I'm sure that their use of analytics has something to do with the offensive emergence of Moncada and Anderson, as well as the turnarounds by Sheets, Stiever, Luis Gonzalez, and others in the minors. It can't all be luck 

They just got JR to make an investment in it around a year or two ago. It was long overdue. The fact that they're already seeing results is encouraging, but it doesn't mean they're still not behind most of baseball that has been doing it for much longer. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I disagree. Wheeler's always hurt, and he's had a pretty bad season. Stuff wise? I agree completely. Durability and Reliability? I'd take Bumgarner easily. Bumgarner got hurt in a freak accident that wasn't baseball related. He's been durable and reliable besides that. 

Call it what you want to call it, but Wheeler has made more starts since 2017 than Bumgarner.  He also has much less mileage on his arm and the stuff remains top-end.  You’re too focused on the need for a lefty IMO.

[mqr]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I think it's the money combined with the years with pitchers. 

Giving 6 years to a pitcher is rough; giving 8 is absurdity.

Yeah if that's how the sox miss out, then whatever