Free Agency - How confident are you?

[GermanSoxFan]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Again, I don't care about his clock, I care about Moncada and Giolito. Again, do you want to waste their best years? 

Kopech spending 8 weeks in AAA isn’t going to make or break the rebuild. this is ridiculous. If they sign a veteran swingman like Nova, they get some competent innings and let Kopech build up his arm without having to worry about taxing the bullpen.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It's not contrarian it's more like when have the Sox ever done what we expect them to do. You and Chicago Sox Sox expect them to sign some really good guys but if that doesn't happen  what then ? Me and Jack really hope they sign some good guys too that allow the Sox to aim for the playoffs as early as next year. We just want to maximize the strength of the team when the window o[ens and not lessen its strength by guys like Madrigal and Robert who when they do come up next uyear might have an adjustment period as bad as Moncada and as inconsistent as Eloy.

Maybe 2020 isn't a playoff year but it had better be in 2021-2023 before Gio and Yo become free agents. Maybe those are your 2 best guys going forward and it would be a big blow to lose them We cannot count on extending them both or even one of them. One of Kopech or Cease really have to reach close to their ceilings to replace him but it would be much better to have all 3 firing on all cylinders together. That's not likely to happen next year. It would also be really nice if Moncada Eloy and Robert can also fire on all cylinders together at some point along with GIo, Kopech and Cease. Could it happen . yes but how likely is it and also that other draft picks develop enough to help and Reinsdorf all of a sudden says signing anyone to big contracts isn't bad business anymore ?

Waves of talent get smaller and smaller as the years progress and the Sox get worse draft picks and the talent leaves via free agency while the Sox still don't draft well , develop well , use all their international money or sign expensive free agent contracts. I suppose this off season will tell most of us all we need to know going forward but I wouldn't expect things to go as some of you expect. And I don't mean it will be better than you expect.

I mean yeah, in a perfect world they land some decent FA the next two offseasons and go win a title or two. This isn't a perfect world, and this is baseball. Weird things happen. For all we know Giolito could get injured in 2022  and never be the same guy, but in 2020-2021 he pitches like an ace. We all are Sox fans here, we all want them to land FA and succeed. I'm a bit concerned already about how top heavy their minor league system is. They might not be able to acquire the finishing pieces to put the team over the top. I just wouldn't count on them landing FA or making decent trades until they actually pull it off. Nobody here wants them to fail. It's more of the skepticism that they'll actually pull off what they need to do to win. That skepticism is well earned. 

[Jack Parkman]

23 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Kopech spending 8 weeks in AAA isn’t going to make or break the rebuild. this is ridiculous. If they sign a veteran swingman like Nova, they get some competent innings and let Kopech build up his arm without having to worry about taxing the bullpen.

Kopech spending 8 weeks in AAA could be the difference between making the playoffs in 2020 and sitting at home. Same for Robert and Madrigal spending an extra 8 weeks of the roster this year. Again, I want them to all be firing on all cylinders simultaneously. That is how you win championships. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[GermanSoxFan]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Kopech spending 8 weeks in AAA could be the difference between making the playoffs in 2020 and sitting at home. Same for Robert and Madrigal spending an extra 8 weeks of the roster this year. Again, I want them to all be firing on all cylinders simultaneously. That is how you win championships. 

Next year won’t be that year. They could win the division with some good fortune, but it’s pretty obvious that 2021 is the year when they are really going to go for it.

[Jack Parkman]

17 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Next year won’t be that year. They could win the division with some good fortune, but it’s pretty obvious that 2021 is the year when they are really going to go for it.

If keeping the extra year of service on those 3 guys is the difference between a division title and missing the playoffs in 2020, was it still worth it? Obviously a bit hyperbolic of a question but it has to be asked. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[GermanSoxFan]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

If keeping the extra year of service on those 3 guys is the difference between a division title and missing the playoffs in 2020, was it still worth it? 

Obviosuly not, but you are basing this  on a flawed premise that calling them up right now would guarantee a playoff spot.

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Obviosuly not, but you are basing this  on a flawed premise that calling them up right now would guarantee a playoff spot.

I'm not saying it would guarantee it, but I do think it would have given them significantly better odds. That was a hypothetical question. Hopefully we're not asking ourselves that question at this time next year. 

Edited August 26, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm not saying it would guarantee it, but I do think it would have given them significantly better odds. That was a hypothetical question. Hopefully we're not asking ourselves that question at this time next year. 

If we're asking that question at this time next year then that means we are 1-2 games out of the playoff race/1-2 games out of the division race. I'm ok with that. 

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Next year won’t be that year. They could win the division with some good fortune, but it’s pretty obvious that 2021 is the year when they are really going to go for it.

Right.  2020 could be super fun, but it isn't time for primetime.  Things could go great and they could find themselves in the thick of things, but I am not really expecting that.  Over .500 baseball would be great.  

 

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm not saying it would guarantee it, but I do think it would have given them significantly better odds. That was a hypothetical question. Hopefully we're not asking ourselves that question at this time next year. 

We're talking about potentially as few as 15 games.  Chances are higher Robert spends more time on the IL next season than the amount he'll miss because he's taking at bats in Charlotte.  There is no quantifiable evidence that Robert being up for the next few weeks would make any difference in next season's results.  Shit some are projecting the decision to affect his whole career.  Its non sense.  Madrigal getting called up this year would be a serious rush job and wasn't even a point of discussion until a couple weeks ago. 

 

2 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Waves of talent get smaller and smaller as the years progress and the Sox get worse draft picks and the talent leaves via free agency while the Sox still don't draft well , develop well , use all their international money or sign expensive free agent contracts. I suppose this off season will tell most of us all we need to know going forward but I wouldn't expect things to go as some of you expect. And I don't mean it will be better than you expect.

Most of you just simply won't believe it until you see it.  I get it.  If Sox go through the next two offseasons without signing a $100M player, I may just as big of skeptic. But for now, there is no evidence that the White Sox are now operating with one of the smallest payrolls in the league.  The core is there.  That is why they went through this painful process.  They are going to add.  They have legitimately a metric fuck ton of money to spend.  They aren't just going to throw their hands up and spend it on shitty veterans just because Manny Machado signed elsewhere.  

[BackDoorBreach]

There are people ITT that believe the Sox will be playing baseball games with a 90 million dollar payroll.

Yikes.

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Right.  2020 could be super fun, but it isn't time for primetime.  Things could go great and they could find themselves in the thick of things, but I am not really expecting that.  Over .500 baseball would be great.  

 

We're talking about potentially as few as 15 games.  Chances are higher Robert spends more time on the IL next season than the amount he'll miss because he's taking at bats in Charlotte.  There is no quantifiable evidence that Robert being up for the next few weeks would make any difference in next season's results.  Shit some are projecting the decision to affect his whole career.  Its non sense.  Madrigal getting called up this year would be a serious rush job and wasn't even a point of discussion until a couple weeks ago. 

 

Most of you just simply won't believe it until you see it.  I get it.  If Sox go through the next two offseasons without signing a $100M player, I may just as big of skeptic. But for now, there is no evidence that the White Sox are now operating with one of the smallest payrolls in the league.  The core is there.  That is why they went through this painful process.  They are going to add.  They have legitimately a metric fuck ton of money to spend.  They aren't just going to throw their hands up and spend it on shitty veterans just because Manny Machado signed elsewhere.  

They had a metric shit ton of money last offseason and they still didn't give out competitive offers. Cole, Strasburg and Ozuna are Boras guys. I'd be surprised if they even talk given what happened last year with Harper. 

Edited August 27, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

They should definitely hold Kopech back in AAA to get the year of control back, and this should be completely disconnected from who we sign in free agency.

It's almost impossible to say whether we can compete for the division until we see first what MIN and CLE are willing to do in the offseason.

Some of the most logical picks in recent months like Grandal and Ozuna are becoming less likely additions...you can probably say the same thing for paying a Castellanos premium for his play with the Cubs.

 

Unless Hahn has a magic 8 ball and can get the equivalent of a Lance Lynn/Minor pairing, there's just too much volatility in that starting rotation to imagine being a high 80's win team next season.  Boston is going to be coming off a year where they missed and Sale might be out for an extended time period, so they'll have to respond.  Oakland probably isn't going anywhere...so all obvious signs point to 2021 being the start of the real contention window.  As Balta pointed out, there's going to be a lot of money chasing after 1.5-2.5 fWAR second tier talent, and the rate of return on investments in that area (especially veterans in their 30's already) isn't that great.

The obvious flaw with this youngster or prospect heavy rotation plan is if they don't sign at least two pretty good FA's and then we go on to suffer more significant injuries in the starting rotation.  Losing Kopech alone kicked us back one season at least. Another injury without quality depth to replace the gap essentially forces them to be all-in for 2021, and I'm not sure how many can trust Hahn in that situation, either, where he's actually fighting to save his job with FA signings.

Edited August 27, 2019 by caulfield12

[BackDoorBreach]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They should definitely hold Kopech back in AAA to get the year of control back, and this should be completely disconnected from who we sign in free agency.

It's almost impossible to say whether we can compete for the division until we see first what MIN and CLE are willing to do in the offseason.

Some of the most logical picks in recent months like Grandal and Ozuna are becoming less likely additions...you can probably say the same thing for paying a Castellanos premium for his play with the Cubs.

 

Unless Hahn has a magic 8 ball and can get the equivalent of a Lance Lynn/Minor pairing, there's just too much volatility in that starting rotation to imagine being a high 80's win team next season.  Boston is going to be coming off a year where they missed and Sale might be out for an extended time period, so they'll have to respond.  Oakland probably isn't going anywhere...so all obvious signs point to 2021 being the start of the real contention window.  As Balta pointed out, there's going to be a lot of money chasing after 1.5-2.5 fWAR second tier talent, and the rate of return on investments in that area (especially veterans in their 30's already) isn't that great.

The obvious flaw with this youngster or prospect heavy rotation plan is if they don't sign at least two pretty good FA's and then we go on to suffer more significant injuries in the starting rotation.  Losing Kopech alone kicked us back one season at least. Another injury without quality depth to replace the gap essentially forces them to be all-in for 2021, and I'm not sure how many can trust Hahn in that situation, either, where he's actually fighting to save his job with FA signings.

Literally how?  They have like 26 million in guarenteed money next year.  They have to spend like 60 million dollars just to get to the 90 million, bottom 3 in the league, payroll they currently have in a tank year.  Are they going to sign Ivan Nova for 60 million AAV?  I get being skeptical they land a guy like Cole but come on.

[Moan4Yoan]

3 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

It's not contrarian it's more like when have the Sox ever done what we expect them to do ? You and @Chicago White Sox expect them to sign some really good guys but if that doesn't happen  what then ? Me and Jack really hope they sign some good guys too that allow the Sox to aim for the playoffs as early as next year. We just want to maximize the strength of the team when the window o[ens and not lessen its strength by guys like Madrigal and Robert who when they do come up next uyear might have an adjustment period as bad as Moncada and as inconsistent as Eloy.

Maybe 2020 isn't a playoff year but it had better be in 2021-2023 before Gio and Yo become free agents. Maybe those are your 2 best guys going forward and it would be a big blow to lose them We cannot count on extending them both or even one of them. One of Kopech or Cease really have to reach close to their ceilings to replace him but it would be much better to have all 3 firing on all cylinders together. That's not likely to happen next year. It would also be really nice if Moncada Eloy and Robert can also fire on all cylinders together at some point along with GIo, Kopech and Cease. Could it happen . yes but how likely is it and also that other draft picks develop enough to help and Reinsdorf all of a sudden says signing anyone to big contracts isn't bad business anymore ?

Waves of talent get smaller and smaller as the years progress and the Sox get worse draft picks and the talent leaves via free agency while the Sox still don't draft well , develop well , use all their international money or sign expensive free agent contracts. I suppose this off season will tell most of us all we need to know going forward but I wouldn't expect things to go as some of you expect. And I don't mean it will be better than you expect.

Excellent post.  I agree and am more on the negative side when it comes to expecting Reinsdorf to open the purse strings this offseason.  I am hoping it happens but I am not expecting it.  I expect Hahn to sign some mid-range talent on more “value deals” but  not the top talent that many are expecting.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Next year won’t be that year. They could win the division with some good fortune, but it’s pretty obvious that 2021 is the year when they are really going to go for it.

That's what I say, next year wont be that year and they are making sure of that. That's my problem with it. Yes with good fortune they could make the playoffs but as Branch Rickey once said :

Luck is the residue of design.

 

On one hand we expect the Sox to spend all this money on good players Why? because they are nearing the end of the rebuild and most of the core pieces are in place . Some are coming off injury , some will be up after the service time gives the Sox the extra year. If luck truly is the residue of design , they are not designing to win next year thereby lessening the chances that good fortune happens.

 

If they designed it to increase the chances of good fortune then Robert and Madrigal would've been up already to increase the odds of good fortune, After all Robert will probably be a better player than anyone the Sox have now in the OF so why not get the acclimation period (if there is one) out of the way now ? Samefor Madrigal If there is a period of adjustment then again those few games that everyone thinks won't make a difference become a lot more games that they may not be playing at their peaks, Again poor design lessening the chance of good for

 

 

@ChiSox59

says the question of Madrigal coming up really wasn't even discussed until a few weeks ago but that is because the Sox promoted him to AAA 3 weeks after Robert and promoting him to the Sox would be a rush job. I think both he and Robert have proven enough in their 1st full years to have been called up. Yes they have both jumped multiple levels and are different kinds of hitters but both play good+ defense , both are good+ base runners with good+ speed and most likely both bring more to the table then anyone the Sox currently have at their positions.

 

All I am saying is, to paraphrase Branch Rickey, is you make your own luck and I prefer the luck produced by design rather than failure to act. If I had faith  the FO would all of a sudden become magically good I'd be right there with @ChiSox59 saying keep them down  And you all know that lack of faith is really warranted by failures in almost all phases of trying to draft, develop, scout talent accurately,sign free agents and win in the past.

I really do hope your faith is rewarded and my lack of faith was just spitting into the wind.

 

[caulfield12]

14 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Literally how?  They have like 26 million in guarenteed money next year.  They have to spend like 60 million dollars just to get to the 90 million, bottom 3 in the league, payroll they currently have in a tank year.  Are they going to sign Ivan Nova for 60 million AAV?  I get being skeptical they land a guy like Cole but come on.

Grandal has been a huge disappointment the second half, and is reaching the zenith of his everyday catching days.

Ozuna isn't left-handed, isn't ideally suited for RF and is getting more and more expensive, and BORAS.  He's also picking his numbers back up to where they're nearing 900 OPS, which means he would be the first player the Sox ever signed for over $65 million because of his relatively young age. 

Castellanos has been the definition of a 1.5ish RF who is going to be marketed as a 2.5-3 fWAR quasi-superstar because of his run with the Cubs after the trade.

 

I'm just not sure what really good fits there are right now....there's a bunch of guys like Corey Dickerson, Justin Smoak, Moreland, Adams, but those aren't really difference-makers.

 

Edited August 27, 2019 by caulfield12

[Moan4Yoan]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

They had a metric shit ton of money last offseason and they still didn't give out competitive offers. Cole, Strasburg and Ozuna are Boras guys. I'd be surprised if they even talk given what happened last year with Harper. 

Yep, Castellanos too.  Basically, throw out any of the free agent names who use Boras as their agent.  Puig and Ozuna don’t use Boras but Ozuna’s price will likely be out of the Sox comfort zone.  I could see Puig being a White Sox though due to their past interest.

Edited August 27, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[caulfield12]

Yeah, just double-checked that on Ozuna.

He dumped Boras for Yadier Molina's agency, MDR.

That means it's at least 50/50 the Cardinals figure out a way to keep him in the fold...especially with the their season is heading right now.

 

[Moan4Yoan]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yeah, just double-checked that on Ozuna.

He dumped Boras for Yadier Molina's agency, MDR.

That means it's at least 50/50 the Cardinals figure out a way to keep him in the fold...especially with the their season is heading right now.

 

Between paying Dexter Fowler for two more seasons, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson looking amazing and ready for the majors, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals let Ozuna go.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

22 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Excellent post.  I agree and am more on the negative side when it comes to expecting Reinsdorf to open the purse strings this offseason.  I am hoping it happens but I am not expecting it.  I expect Hahn to sign some mid-range talent on more “value deals” but  not the top talent that many are expecting.

Thanks. I like the actual discussion of this because many good posters on opposing sides are involved. What really shocks me though is @Chicago White Sox trusting the FO again. He was more invested emotionally in the Machado signing than anyone and really expected it to happen. When it didn't he was crushed, upset w/e you want to call it and here he is getting on that same roller coaster ride again for this off season and once again expecting good things .

[Moan4Yoan]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Thanks. I like the actual discussion of this because many good posters on opposing sides are involved. What really shocks me though is @Chicago White Sox trusting the FO again. He was more invested emotionally in the Machado signing than anyone and really expected it to happen. When it didn't he was crushed, upset w/e you want to call it and here he is getting on that same roller coaster ride again for this off season and once again expecting good things .

I am very surprised myself considering he seemed as angry as many of us were last offseason.  Didn’t he say he was moving to Nashville or something?

I am hoping for the best and expecting the worse next offseason.  I wasted all of my false hope last offseason when I was sure the Sox would land either Machado or Harper.

Afterall, to not expect any big signings from this front office would put you on the side of better odds based on Sox history.  When is the last time big free agent signing they made?  I really don’t consider Adam Dunn that big of a signing so probably Albert Belle?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

I am very surprised myself considering he seemed as angry as many of us were last offseason.  Didn’t he say he was moving to Nashville or something?

I am hoping for the best and expecting the worse next offseason.  I wasted all of my false hope last offseason when I was sure the Sox would land either Machado or Harper.

Afterall, to not expect any big signings from this front office would put you on the side of better odds based on Sox history.  When is the last time big free agent signing they made?  I really don’t consider Adam Dunn that big of a signing so probably Albert Belle?

I suppose you could count Robert and Abreu but they were not MLB Free Agents. So yes , I'd say Albert Belle . He did move to Nashville but that was more for himself and his family as opposed to some move to get away from the Sox . Hell I moved to California  35+years ago but might be a bigger Sox fan now than I ever was. But at least you are using his quote as your signature where he acknowledges the Sox might screw it up.

[spiderman]

If the White Sox are competing against the Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Astros, they are not likely to land that player unless they go well beyond the expected offers and just make an offer that the player would not say no too. I don't think it's likely a player will take a similar offer with the White Sox to grow with the young core if other premier franchises are in the running.

I could see them looking at trade options just so they can land a key player who can help next season. 

I don't know if they will land the top of the free agent class, but I do expect that they will be in the market for a RF/DH (maybe both, but doubtful). They will be looking at the bullpen, but I don't understand the logic that had them giving Herrera the deal (2 years, 18 M) he got when his numbers were declining.. Still, I expect to see another veteran added there.

I do think they need a #1 or # 2 type starter, but will this come from free agency or trade? Not sure if it's free agency if the teams mentioned are in on Cole.

[Chicago White Sox]

29 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Thanks. I like the actual discussion of this because many good posters on opposing sides are involved. What really shocks me though is @Chicago White Sox trusting the FO again. He was more invested emotionally in the Machado signing than anyone and really expected it to happen. When it didn't he was crushed, upset w/e you want to call it and here he is getting on that same roller coaster ride again for this off season and once again expecting good things .

The difference is I now have zero faith the Sox will sign Cole or Rendon.  I don’t even think Strasburg is likely.  After that, most guys will get contracts that we’re more than capable of offering.  The Sox offered Machado 8/$250M or essentially $31M/year.  Yes, it was stupid to think that was enough and it ultimately blew up in their faces, but the reality is they were ready to commit significant dollars to a single player.  To think they can’t sign guys who will be around $100M max is crazy to me.  The Sox have never had this kind of financial flexibility in recent memory and to cite past history as a reason to be skeptical doesn’t make much sense.  They should be one of the biggest spenders over the next two free agent classes full stop.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

55 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Yep, Castellanos too.  Basically, throw out any of the free agent names who use Boras as their agent.  Puig and Ozuna don’t use Boras but Ozuna’s price will likely be out of the Sox comfort zone.  I could see Puig being a White Sox though due to their past interest.

There's always  JD Martinez if he opts out. Red Sox are going to need pitching very badly and they are already having trouble with the luxury tax. Martinez walking might be doing them a favor.