How to Handle Kopech in 2020

[ChiSox59]

I've mentioned this multiple times throughout the season, but I feel this was an important enough topic to start its own thread.  This may come off a tad controversial, though I don't think it is at all, but I am firmly in the send Kopech to AAA to start 2020 camp.  Here is why:

• Innings Limit / Controlling Workload
  • Kopech is going to need his innings controlled in a big way next season.   He has maxed out at 140 innings in 2018 before he hurt his arm.  His previous highs in professional ball were 134 IP in 2017 and 65 IP in 2015.  Obviously, Kopech is not going to be ready to throw over 200 (high stress / intensity) major league innings next season.  If the Sox are even a little bit serious about trying to compete next season, they're going to want Kopech on the mound in August and September.  The best way to do that is limit his innings early on.  Sending him to AAA to open the season allows the Sox to take it easy on him in the early going.  Let him pitch just once a week.  Start with just a few innings starts, and slowly build-up the workload over a couples months in AAA where he won't need to overthrow and the stress on the arm is less.  FWIW - Kopech has 3 minor league options remaining, so that is not of concern in the slightest.  
• Contractual Control
  • I was pretty firmly in the leave Kopech in AAA group last summer.  Obviously, I was super excited to watch him pitch at the big league level once the decision was made.  I understand being a little more aggressive on promotions of pitchers as opposed to position players, primarily due to injury risk and using the innings that are in the arm whil you have the control.  What is done is done, obviously, but what transpired was pretty much that worse case scenario for the White Sox, outside of a career ending injury.  Losing close to 20% of his control was a serious kick to the nuts. Letting bygones be bygones, one benefit to taking it slowly with Kopech early next season and letting him build up his innings in AAA is that they can get a year of control back.  Kopech will go into 2020 with 1.041 years of service time.  He was called up August 20, 2018.  I don't know the exact cut off, but if he stays in AAA until late May / early June 2020, the Sox could delay his free agency from 2025 to 2026.  As someone who cares about the seasons when several of our core players will be approaching FA and the Sox should be pretty good - I'd love to have Kopech around in 2026.   
  • BUT BUT BUT - KOPECH WILL FILE A GRIEVANCE! I say non-sense. The guy has 14 innings of major league baseball under his belt and just got a reconstructive elbow surgery.  He is by no means guaranteed an opening day roster spot just because of his prospect status.  He would have absolutely zero grounds for a grievance.  It is perfectly reasonable for the Sox to want their prized asset to build up his innings slowly in the minors, so he is ready for pitching deep into the season at the major league level.
• Allow time for Lopez to continue to iron things out as SP
  • Opening Day Rotation: Cole (or other SP acquisition), Giolito, Cease, Wood (or other SP acquisition), Lopez.
    • I have made in no secret that I want the Sox to add Cole.  Most people think there is no shot, so insert Bumgarner, Hamels, Odorizzi, or whomever floats your boat instead of Cole.  The bottom line, I think the Sox need to add two legitimate SP to their rotation via FA or trade this winter.  Cole and Wood would be my choices, but you can insert whomever you'd like - the point remains.  Keeping Kopech in AAA allows the Sox to give Reynaldo another couple months to see if he is a long term rotation option, or if it is time to move him to the pen.  If Kopech starts the year in the bigs, they either only add 1 (legit) SP, or Lopez is in the pen to start the year.

What is your opinion?  How would you handle the situation if you were in charge?  If your answer is that Kopech needs to be on the OD roster, how are you going to handle his workload so that his is still available in August and September?  If you're worried about grievances, the Sox certainly can't shuttle him between AAA and Chicago like Padres have done with Paddack, and it appears the Rays are going to do with McKay. With just a 25 man roster, the Sox can't really afford to skip Kopech a bunch throughout the summer while keeping him on the 25 man.  Just curious how those that feel he should without a doubt be on the MLB roster all season plan to handle that.  

[mqr]

10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I've mentioned this multiple times throughout the season, but I feel this was an important enough topic to start its own thread.  This may come off a tad controversial, though I don't think it is at all, but I am firmly in the send Kopech to AAA to start 2020 camp.  Here is why:

• Innings Limit / Controlling Workload
  • Kopech is going to need his innings controlled in a big way next season.   He has maxed out at 140 innings in 2018 before he hurt his arm.  His previous highs in professional ball were 134 IP in 2017 and 65 IP in 2015.  Obviously, Kopech is not going to be ready to throw over 200 (high stress / intensity) major league innings next season.  If the Sox are even a little bit serious about trying to compete next season, they're going to want Kopech on the mound in August and September.  The best way to do that is limit his innings early on.  Sending him to AAA to open the season allows the Sox to take it easy on him in the early going.  Let him pitch just once a week.  Start with just a few innings starts, and slowly build-up the workload over a couples months in AAA where he won't need to overthrow and the stress on the arm is less.  FWIW - Kopech has 3 minor league options remaining, so that is not of concern in the slightest.  
• Contractual Control
  • I was pretty firmly in the leave Kopech in AAA group last summer.  Obviously, I was super excited to watch him pitch at the big league level once the decision was made.  I understand being a little more aggressive on promotions of pitchers as opposed to position players, primarily due to injury risk and using the innings that are in the arm whil you have the control.  What is done is done, obviously, but what transpired was pretty much that worse case scenario for the White Sox, outside of a career ending injury.  Losing close to 20% of his control was a serious kick to the nuts. Letting bygones be bygones, one benefit to taking it slowly with Kopech early next season and letting him build up his innings in AAA is that they can get a year of control back.  Kopech will go into 2020 with 1.041 years of service time.  He was called up August 20, 2018.  I don't know the exact cut off, but if he stays in AAA until late May / early June 2020, the Sox could delay his free agency from 2025 to 2026.  As someone who cares about the seasons when several of our core players will be approaching FA and the Sox should be pretty good - I'd love to have Kopech around in 2026.   
  •  BUT BUT BUT - KOPECH WILL FILE A GRIEVANCE! I say non-sense. The guy has 14 innings of major league baseball under his belt and just got a reconstructive elbow surgery.  He is by no means guaranteed an opening day roster spot just because of his prospect status.  He would have absolutely zero grounds for a grievance.  It is perfectly reasonable for the Sox to want their prized asset to build up his innings slowly in the minors, so he is ready for pitching deep into the season at the major league level.
• Allow time for Lopez to continue to iron things out as SP
  • Opening Day Rotation: Cole (or other SP acquisition), Giolito, Cease, Wood (or other SP acquisition), Lopez.
    • I have made in no secret that I want the Sox to add Cole.  Most people think there is no shot, so insert Bumgarner, Hamels, Odorizzi, or whomever floats your boat instead of Cole.  The bottom line, I think the Sox need to add two legitimate SP to their rotation via FA or trade this winter.  Cole and Wood would be my choices, but you can insert whomever you'd like - the point remains.  Keeping Kopech in AAA allows the Sox to give Reynaldo another couple months to see if he is a long term rotation option, or if it is time to move him to the pen.  If Kopech starts the year in the bigs, they either only add 1 (legit) SP, or Lopez is in the pen to start the year.

What is your opinion?  How would you handle the situation if you were in charge?  If your answer is that Kopech needs to be on the OD roster, how are you going to handle his workload so that his is still available in August and September?  If you're worried about grievances, the Sox certainly can't shuttle him between AAA and Chicago like Padres have done with Paddack, and it appears the Rays are going to do with McKay. With just a 25 man roster, the Sox can't really afford to skip Kopech a bunch throughout the summer while keeping him on the 25 man.  Just curious how those that feel he should without a doubt be on the MLB roster all season plan to handle that.  

I'd probably send him down to AAA for a couple weeks just to make sure everything is A1, and use Rodon/Dunning coming back/up as a way to stretch to a six man rotation and limit all of them. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by mqr

[Buehrle>Wood]

Gloves off no restrictions and on the opening day roster.

[ptatc]

11 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I've mentioned this multiple times throughout the season, but I feel this was an important enough topic to start its own thread.  This may come off a tad controversial, though I don't think it is at all, but I am firmly in the send Kopech to AAA to start 2020 camp.  Here is why:

• Innings Limit / Controlling Workload
  • Kopech is going to need his innings controlled in a big way next season.   He has maxed out at 140 innings in 2018 before he hurt his arm.  His previous highs in professional ball were 134 IP in 2017 and 65 IP in 2015.  Obviously, Kopech is not going to be ready to throw over 200 (high stress / intensity) major league innings next season.  If the Sox are even a little bit serious about trying to compete next season, they're going to want Kopech on the mound in August and September.  The best way to do that is limit his innings early on.  Sending him to AAA to open the season allows the Sox to take it easy on him in the early going.  Let him pitch just once a week.  Start with just a few innings starts, and slowly build-up the workload over a couples months in AAA where he won't need to overthrow and the stress on the arm is less.  FWIW - Kopech has 3 minor league options remaining, so that is not of concern in the slightest.  
• Contractual Control
  • I was pretty firmly in the leave Kopech in AAA group last summer.  Obviously, I was super excited to watch him pitch at the big league level once the decision was made.  I understand being a little more aggressive on promotions of pitchers as opposed to position players, primarily due to injury risk and using the innings that are in the arm whil you have the control.  What is done is done, obviously, but what transpired was pretty much that worse case scenario for the White Sox, outside of a career ending injury.  Losing close to 20% of his control was a serious kick to the nuts. Letting bygones be bygones, one benefit to taking it slowly with Kopech early next season and letting him build up his innings in AAA is that they can get a year of control back.  Kopech will go into 2020 with 1.041 years of service time.  He was called up August 20, 2018.  I don't know the exact cut off, but if he stays in AAA until late May / early June 2020, the Sox could delay his free agency from 2025 to 2026.  As someone who cares about the seasons when several of our core players will be approaching FA and the Sox should be pretty good - I'd love to have Kopech around in 2026.   
  • BUT BUT BUT - KOPECH WILL FILE A GRIEVANCE! I say non-sense. The guy has 14 innings of major league baseball under his belt and just got a reconstructive elbow surgery.  He is by no means guaranteed an opening day roster spot just because of his prospect status.  He would have absolutely zero grounds for a grievance.  It is perfectly reasonable for the Sox to want their prized asset to build up his innings slowly in the minors, so he is ready for pitching deep into the season at the major league level.
• Allow time for Lopez to continue to iron things out as SP
  • Opening Day Rotation: Cole (or other SP acquisition), Giolito, Cease, Wood (or other SP acquisition), Lopez.
    • I have made in no secret that I want the Sox to add Cole.  Most people think there is no shot, so insert Bumgarner, Hamels, Odorizzi, or whomever floats your boat instead of Cole.  The bottom line, I think the Sox need to add two legitimate SP to their rotation via FA or trade this winter.  Cole and Wood would be my choices, but you can insert whomever you'd like - the point remains.  Keeping Kopech in AAA allows the Sox to give Reynaldo another couple months to see if he is a long term rotation option, or if it is time to move him to the pen.  If Kopech starts the year in the bigs, they either only add 1 (legit) SP, or Lopez is in the pen to start the year.

What is your opinion?  How would you handle the situation if you were in charge?  If your answer is that Kopech needs to be on the OD roster, how are you going to handle his workload so that his is still available in August and September?  If you're worried about grievances, the Sox certainly can't shuttle him between AAA and Chicago like Padres have done with Paddack, and it appears the Rays are going to do with McKay. With just a 25 man roster, the Sox can't really afford to skip Kopech a bunch throughout the summer while keeping him on the 25 man.  Just curious how those that feel he should without a doubt be on the MLB roster all season plan to handle that.  

Your workload idea is a little off. He can't pitch once per week and maintain the strength and endurance that he needs. It would need to be more like limiting his innings per start to 4.

I think your more likely scenario is that they pitch him in  the MLB at the normal rotation and if they are in it in July they acquire a pitcher at the deadline to finish the season for Kopech. Or the pitcher that takes Kopech's place is Rodon toward the end of the season. he'll be ready.

I don't think is a prayer in Hades that the sox will sign 2 SP. I'm not sure they will sign one high end pitcher. Those contracts are just scary. I think they sign one mid-level pitcher and go with Giolito, Cease, Kopech, lopez and acquired pitcher.

 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

Your workload idea is a little off. He can't pitch once per week and maintain the strength and endurance that he needs. It would need to be more like limiting his innings per start to 4.

I think your more likely scenario is that they pitch him in  the MLB at the normal rotation and if they are in it in July they acquire a pitcher at the deadline to finish the season for Kopech. Or the pitcher that takes Kopech's place is Rodon toward the end of the season. he'll be ready.

I don't think is a prayer in Hades that the sox will sign 2 SP. I'm not sure they will sign one high end pitcher. Those contracts are just scary. I think they sign one mid-level pitcher and go with Giolito, Cease, Kopech, lopez and acquired pitcher.

So basically shut down potentially your best pitcher in August because he's hit his workload for the year?  Hard pass on that scenario.  IMO, they need to do something to limit his workload in the early part of the season so if they're actually in contention they don't just lose his services for the season down the closing stretch of the season.  

And sure, let him go every 5th day down in AAA if that is the medically correct thing to do, but you can still control his workload in the early going by only letting him go a few innings per start and working up from there.  Much easier to do that in AAA than in the big leagues.  

[ptatc]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

So basically shut down potentially your best pitcher in August because he's hit his workload for the year?  Hard pass on that scenario.  IMO, they need to do something to limit his workload in the early part of the season so if they're actually in contention they don't just lose his services for the season down the closing stretch of the season.  

And sure, let him go every 5th day down in AAA if that is the medically correct thing to do, but you can still control his workload in the early going by only letting him go a few innings per start and working up from there.  Much easier to do that in AAA than in the big leagues.  

It's really the only way to build up the season and keep his progression going. as I said the other way is to limit his innings per start early and have a piggy back pitcher. I'm not sure how that would go over either. It's easier to do in the minors but they will lose his services for the first half of the season then so he'll need to continue his learning curve when the sox are in contention. He was showing progress when he pitched last year but he was by no means dominant.

[ptatc]

21 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

Gloves off no restrictions and on the opening day roster.

Impossible with a pitcher who has pitched at most 140 innings in a season and coming off surgery. Unless you want next season to be his last.

[zisk]

At least he'll have 20 months healing time before the games count. Start at 4 innings a start and stretch him out.

[yesterday333]

In order to avoid the whole service time issue, couldn't we sign him to an extension?

[GermanSoxFan]

If the Sox are in contention they could go to a 6 man rotation with Lopez as the swingman to limit his innings. And Rodon is coming back as well.

I hope the Sox sign someone to anchor the rotation and a veteran swingman to be able to skip Kopech once in a while.

[joejoedairy]

I agree they should sign 2 SP, and Cole should be one of them. Lopez to the bullpen. 

I think Kopech starts the season on the MLB roster. Limit him to 5-6 innings per start in the first few months and maybe skip him a few times. 

When Kopech gets to ~130 innings move him to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. Should be around when Rodon is getting back, he takes Kopech rotation slot. 

 

[Balta1701]

22 minutes ago, yesterday333 said:

In order to avoid the whole service time issue, couldn't we sign him to an extension?

The Mets have had 2 of their pitchers go down for TJS. Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom (ok DeGrom was while he was in the minors but run with the point). Their careers have completely diverged since the surgery - DeGrom has been an Ace, Harvey fell apart. How confident are you in signing a guy who you not only haven't seen put up great big league numbers, but who hasn't pitched in nearly 12 months? 

[mqr]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The Mets have had 2 of their pitchers go down for TJS. Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom (ok DeGrom was while he was in the minors but run with the point). Their careers have completely diverged since the surgery - DeGrom has been an Ace, Harvey fell apart. How confident are you in signing a guy who you not only haven't seen put up great big league numbers, but who hasn't pitched in nearly 12 months? 

Harvey was TOS wasn’t he?

[GermanSoxFan]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

Harvey was TOS wasn’t he?

Yeah, coming back from TJS he put up a 2.71 ERA in 189 IP.

[Blackout Friday]

I think it’s smart to have goals laid out, but his body will probably do the dictating when it comes to plans. 

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

There’s absolutely no reason to push Kopech and risk further injury. If that means shutting him down in the second half than so be it. I would follow a similar plan to how the Nationals handled Strasburg following his TJ. He appears to have been limited to 159 IP.

[Lip Man 1]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I've mentioned this multiple times throughout the season, but I feel this was an important enough topic to start its own thread.  This may come off a tad controversial, though I don't think it is at all, but I am firmly in the send Kopech to AAA to start 2020 camp.  Here is why:

• Innings Limit / Controlling Workload
  • Kopech is going to need his innings controlled in a big way next season.   He has maxed out at 140 innings in 2018 before he hurt his arm.  His previous highs in professional ball were 134 IP in 2017 and 65 IP in 2015.  Obviously, Kopech is not going to be ready to throw over 200 (high stress / intensity) major league innings next season.  If the Sox are even a little bit serious about trying to compete next season, they're going to want Kopech on the mound in August and September.  The best way to do that is limit his innings early on.  Sending him to AAA to open the season allows the Sox to take it easy on him in the early going.  Let him pitch just once a week.  Start with just a few innings starts, and slowly build-up the workload over a couples months in AAA where he won't need to overthrow and the stress on the arm is less.  FWIW - Kopech has 3 minor league options remaining, so that is not of concern in the slightest.  
• Contractual Control
  • I was pretty firmly in the leave Kopech in AAA group last summer.  Obviously, I was super excited to watch him pitch at the big league level once the decision was made.  I understand being a little more aggressive on promotions of pitchers as opposed to position players, primarily due to injury risk and using the innings that are in the arm whil you have the control.  What is done is done, obviously, but what transpired was pretty much that worse case scenario for the White Sox, outside of a career ending injury.  Losing close to 20% of his control was a serious kick to the nuts. Letting bygones be bygones, one benefit to taking it slowly with Kopech early next season and letting him build up his innings in AAA is that they can get a year of control back.  Kopech will go into 2020 with 1.041 years of service time.  He was called up August 20, 2018.  I don't know the exact cut off, but if he stays in AAA until late May / early June 2020, the Sox could delay his free agency from 2025 to 2026.  As someone who cares about the seasons when several of our core players will be approaching FA and the Sox should be pretty good - I'd love to have Kopech around in 2026.   
  • BUT BUT BUT - KOPECH WILL FILE A GRIEVANCE! I say non-sense. The guy has 14 innings of major league baseball under his belt and just got a reconstructive elbow surgery.  He is by no means guaranteed an opening day roster spot just because of his prospect status.  He would have absolutely zero grounds for a grievance.  It is perfectly reasonable for the Sox to want their prized asset to build up his innings slowly in the minors, so he is ready for pitching deep into the season at the major league level.
• Allow time for Lopez to continue to iron things out as SP
  • Opening Day Rotation: Cole (or other SP acquisition), Giolito, Cease, Wood (or other SP acquisition), Lopez.
    • I have made in no secret that I want the Sox to add Cole.  Most people think there is no shot, so insert Bumgarner, Hamels, Odorizzi, or whomever floats your boat instead of Cole.  The bottom line, I think the Sox need to add two legitimate SP to their rotation via FA or trade this winter.  Cole and Wood would be my choices, but you can insert whomever you'd like - the point remains.  Keeping Kopech in AAA allows the Sox to give Reynaldo another couple months to see if he is a long term rotation option, or if it is time to move him to the pen.  If Kopech starts the year in the bigs, they either only add 1 (legit) SP, or Lopez is in the pen to start the year.

What is your opinion?  How would you handle the situation if you were in charge?  If your answer is that Kopech needs to be on the OD roster, how are you going to handle his workload so that his is still available in August and September?  If you're worried about grievances, the Sox certainly can't shuttle him between AAA and Chicago like Padres have done with Paddack, and it appears the Rays are going to do with McKay. With just a 25 man roster, the Sox can't really afford to skip Kopech a bunch throughout the summer while keeping him on the 25 man.  Just curious how those that feel he should without a doubt be on the MLB roster all season plan to handle that.  

I think how he is handled depends on if the Sox can get starting pitching help over the winter. Things will be in a state of flux until then in my opinion. If they get help they can handle him with kid gloves, if not they have to pitch him (unless for example fans enjoy seeing the likes of Dylan Covey on the mound)

[Superstar Lamar]

Kopech gets coupled with Covey every start with him going 4-5 and Covey following with one swing through the batting order.

Make sure AAA is stocked with 1-2 MLB veteran starters to call upon frequently for the second half of the year.

[Bob Sacamano]

Give him extra rest throughout the season. Like how the Sox handled Sale his first year in the rotation where they would skip him here and there (they handled the situation better than the Nats with Strasburg).

[SoxAce]

Kopech will not be pitching 180+ innings fresh off TJS obviously and there will be a learning curve like what we're seeing with Cease. Sox really need to find guys to help burden the load (both in majors and AAA).

[chitownsportsfan]

1 hour ago, Superstar Lamar said:

Kopech gets coupled with Covey every start with him going 4-5 and Covey following with one swing through the batting order.

Make sure AAA is stocked with 1-2 MLB veteran starters to call upon frequently for the second half of the year.

I'd like to see them use an opener for him.  That way he can make 30 starts but only pitch about 140 innings.   Covey wouldn't be my first choice but we'll see how things go down.

[Kyyle23]

First thing I'm doing is making him stop climbing mountains and shit like that

[Perfect Vision]

Kopech will be 18 months post-surgery by opening day next year.  No reason he can't be fully ramped up and ready to go by that point.  If the Sox want to cap his innings at 150 or so, then so be it -- he be replaced by Rodon or someone else in August.  But Kopech should be able to go deep into games and throw all his pitches by the start of next season.

[Balta1701]

One thing I have yet to see brought up is that the White Sox have experience within recent memory of limiting a pitcher's throwing days/out of game work in order to help extend their usefulness in games...that was how both Quintana and Sale were managed in 2012. Quintana threw 38 innings in 2010, 102 innings in 2011, and with the White Sox jumped from A-ball to the big leagues and threw 185 total innings in 2012. Chris Sale threw 71 innings out of the bullpen in 2011 and then jumped to 192 innings in 2012. 

Both of them wore down in September, so some depth is useful, but conveniently Rodon should come back midseason so there's already an obvious plan for that setup.

Given that experience, for Kopech my setup is - if he shows he's ready in Spring Training he breaks camp with the big league team in the rotation. Last year he struggled with his control for a couple months of the year before snapping things together in late June - if he is struggling with his control in spring training, he heads to Charlotte and someone else (Lopez?) Gets a rotation shot until Kopech earns the callup. From there, He's on the 2012 innings management plan - extra time off where possible, maybe 1 or 2 starts skipped, limiting offday throwing, but if he's healthy and effective you feel free to throw him 150+ innings, and figure out down the stretch whether he needs extra days off with Rodon swapped in.

[chitownsportsfan]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

One thing I have yet to see brought up is that the White Sox have experience within recent memory of limiting a pitcher's throwing days/out of game work in order to help extend their usefulness in games...that was how both Quintana and Sale were managed in 2012. Quintana threw 38 innings in 2010, 102 innings in 2011, and with the White Sox jumped from A-ball to the big leagues and threw 185 total innings in 2012. Chris Sale threw 71 innings out of the bullpen in 2011 and then jumped to 192 innings in 2012. 

Both of them wore down in September, so some depth is useful, but conveniently Rodon should come back midseason so there's already an obvious plan for that setup.

Given that experience, for Kopech my setup is - if he shows he's ready in Spring Training he breaks camp with the big league team in the rotation. Last year he struggled with his control for a couple months of the year before snapping things together in late June - if he is struggling with his control in spring training, he heads to Charlotte and someone else (Lopez?) Gets a rotation shot until Kopech earns the callup. From there, He's on the 2012 innings management plan - extra time off where possible, maybe 1 or 2 starts skipped, limiting offday throwing, but if he's healthy and effective you feel free to throw him 150+ innings, and figure out down the stretch whether he needs extra days off with Rodon swapped in.

I wouldn't take anything from spring training either way.  He shouldn't be in Charlotte even if he has an ERA of a billion in spring training.  It's practice.  

Now, if he comes out and shits the bed in his first 5 starts maybe you consider sending him down.