How to Handle Kopech in 2020

[KnightsOnMintSt]

If it were up to me, I would give him 3 or 4 games in Charlotte to get his rhythm back. Assuming he cruised through those starts, I would then call him up with no restriction. Like others have mentioned, by Opening Day next year, he will have missed 18 months. That seems like a good amount of time for surgery, healing process, then building the strength back. And if I know anything about Kopech, he seems like the guy that is doing everything in his power to rehab the correct way.

[BackDoorBreach]

Skip starts and give him some pen days.  You'd like for him to still be somehow contributing toward the end of the season.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 hours ago, ptatc said:

Your workload idea is a little off. He can't pitch once per week and maintain the strength and endurance that he needs. It would need to be more like limiting his innings per start to 4.

I think your more likely scenario is that they pitch him in  the MLB at the normal rotation and if they are in it in July they acquire a pitcher at the deadline to finish the season for Kopech. Or the pitcher that takes Kopech's place is Rodon toward the end of the season. he'll be ready.

I don't think is a prayer in Hades that the sox will sign 2 SP. I'm not sure they will sign one high end pitcher. Those contracts are just scary. I think they sign one mid-level pitcher and go with Giolito, Cease, Kopech, lopez and acquired pitcher.

 

No way they pull him from the rotation in a pennant race. Youd have strasberg drama all over again. 

You limit him early. Skip him everytime you can and just have him throw on those days. Gradually work up the workload as the season goes on. He may not pitch in a game every week but he'll be throwing and maintaining conditioning in a controlled setting which allows him to work on his control and stuff still, while limiting the strenuous innings of mlb baseball.

As for high level pitchers - the numbers are much better for older pitchers today than they were a decade ago. For whatever reason, with the increase in run scoring, older pitchers have improved significantly while younger pitchers have struggled much more. 25-29 is still king though and signing a pitcher into his mid 30's is rarely a good idea... but sometimes you get Max Scherzer.

[ptatc]

30 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No way they pull him from the rotation in a pennant race. Youd have strasberg drama all over again. 

You limit him early. Skip him everytime you can and just have him throw on those days. Gradually work up the workload as the season goes on. He may not pitch in a game every week but he'll be throwing and maintaining conditioning in a controlled setting which allows him to work on his control and stuff still, while limiting the strenuous innings of mlb baseball.

As for high level pitchers - the numbers are much better for older pitchers today than they were a decade ago. For whatever reason, with the increase in run scoring, older pitchers have improved significantly while younger pitchers have struggled much more. 25-29 is still king though and signing a pitcher into his mid 30's is rarely a good idea... but sometimes you get Max Scherzer.

they did the right if unpopular thing with Strasburg for his future.

[Bob Sacamano]

30 minutes ago, ptatc said:

they did the right if unpopular thing with Strasburg for his future.

He got hurt the very next year anyway, correct?

[ptatc]

22 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

He got hurt the very next year anyway, correct?

Nothing significant and nothing to do with his elbow. Besides kopech not only has the injury issue but also the variables that he has only pitched 14 MLB innings and hasn't pitched more than 134 innings in a season. Even if he never had an injury, he wouldnt pitch more than 170-180 innings.

[Lip Man 1]

Which is why today, the way pitchers drop like flies you better have not five, SIX guys you can count on. The top five start the season in the rotation, the #6 guy is your long man / mop up / spot starter when the DH's pile up. AND I'd personally have a 7th guy standing by in Charlotte if everything went to hell...either my top prospect or a vet happy to still be getting a good paycheck. 

[Jerksticks]

This Charlotte talk is crazy to me- dude starts in MLB out of spring training, right?  What am I missing?

[BamaDoc]

ChiSox 59, I am in the minority but I absolutely bring him along slowly with a piggyback partner in AAA.  I want the year of control back and I want him available late in the year if we are in a race.  Lopez to the pen is crazy at this point because the one thing he can provide that we will need is innings.  I am hoping he can be a 4 to 4.5 ERA .  There is a lot of value in a guy these days who can take the bump every five days and give you 5 to 6 innings with 3 runs or less.  That said I think we need two starting pitchers.  I don't think we get Cole but one second tier and one swing type.  Gio, signee , Cease, Lopez, signee.  When Kopech up after year regained, least effective to pen and the same after the break when Rodon is back or go to six man or even Rodon in the pen.  At the break if we suck then one signee could become trade bait.

Edited July 24, 2019 by BamaDoc

[Dominikk85]

Why not do it like the dodgers did with buehler. They started his spring training a month later to save some milage on the arm and then basically let him the second half of his spring training in season. His first two starts or so he got shelled but dodgers felt they could afford some more losses due to the weak division and preferred having a strong buehler in october over 2 more wins. They will also probably add the typical dodgers fake DL stint to save some more innings.

I think that could be a blue print for the sox too. Start his spring training in mid to late march, then put him to extended spring for 2-3 weeks, then start him and add a fake 10 dl stint and two skipped starts and he should be down to around 155 or so at the end of the year.

So 

March 20: start ST

April 20: start season

May: one skipped start

June: one skipped start

Late juli: fake DL stint

 

This should save like 40 innings or so.

Edited July 24, 2019 by [email protected]

[Bob Sacamano]

4 hours ago, [email protected] said:

Why not do it like the dodgers did with buehler. They started his spring training a month later to save some milage on the arm and then basically let him the second half of his spring training in season. His first two starts or so he got shelled but dodgers felt they could afford some more losses due to the weak division and preferred having a strong buehler in october over 2 more wins. They will also probably add the typical dodgers fake DL stint to save some more innings.

I think that could be a blue print for the sox too. Start his spring training in mid to late march, then put him to extended spring for 2-3 weeks, then start him and add a fake 10 dl stint and two skipped starts and he should be down to around 155 or so at the end of the year.

So 

March 20: start ST

April 20: start season

May: one skipped start

June: one skipped start

Late juli: fake DL stint

 

This should save like 40 innings or so.

Steve Stone mentioned the Red Sox did something similar with their starters. Brought them along slowly in Spring Training. Obviously, it showed early in the season but there are 162 games for a reason.

[ChiSox59]

4 hours ago, [email protected] said:

Why not do it like the dodgers did with buehler. They started his spring training a month later to save some milage on the arm and then basically let him the second half of his spring training in season. His first two starts or so he got shelled but dodgers felt they could afford some more losses due to the weak division and preferred having a strong buehler in october over 2 more wins. They will also probably add the typical dodgers fake DL stint to save some more innings.

I think that could be a blue print for the sox too. Start his spring training in mid to late march, then put him to extended spring for 2-3 weeks, then start him and add a fake 10 dl stint and two skipped starts and he should be down to around 155 or so at the end of the year.

So 

March 20: start ST

April 20: start season

May: one skipped start

June: one skipped start

Late juli: fake DL stint

 

This should save like 40 innings or so.

I'd much rather see Kopech shuttled between AAA and the big leagues than be given phantom DL stints throughout the season.  If you don't want to keep him in AAA until June 1 or whatever the exact day may be, fine, but instead of skipping starts and phantom DLing him, option him to AAA for 10 days.  As I mentioned earlier, the Padres have done that with Paddack and the Rays with McKay, who are also pretty elite talents, so its not like the Sox would blazing some new trail. They should be able to get him to spend 6-8 weeks on the AAA roster and get the year on control back if they handled it that way, so long as he initially spends the first month in AAA.  Once you use the option, may as well take advantage of it instead of just having him use a useful 25 man spots while being skipped, or accruing MLB service time while on a phantom DL stint.  

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I'd much rather see Kopech shuttled between AAA and the big leagues than be given phantom DL stints throughout the season.  If you don't want to keep him in AAA until June 1 or whatever the exact day may be, fine, but instead of skipping starts and phantom DLing him, option him to AAA for 10 days.  As I mentioned earlier, the Padres have done that with Paddack and the Rays with McKay, who are also pretty elite talents, so its not like the Sox would blazing some new trail. They should be able to get him to spend 6-8 weeks on the AAA roster and get the year on control back if they handled it that way, so long as he initially spends the first month in AAA.  Once you use the option, may as well take advantage of it instead of just having him use a useful 25 man spots while being skipped, or accruing MLB service time while on a phantom DL stint.  

Pitching in AAA doesn't decrease his workload. The phantom IL time allows him to not pitch and decrease his overall innings. No matter which way they do it, they need to find a way to keep his overall innings, regardless if it's MLB or MiLB, to about 170-180 absolute max, maybe even 160-170 due to the injury.

[SCCWS]

52 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Pitching in AAA doesn't decrease his workload. The phantom IL time allows him to not pitch and decrease his overall innings. No matter which way they do it, they need to find a way to keep his overall innings, regardless if it's MLB or MiLB, to about 170-180 absolute max, maybe even 160-170 due to the injury.

PTATC: Will any consideration be given to the weather?. Obviously Chicago in April can be still wintery and Charlotte on average is 15+ degrees warmer.  Obviously teams move around but overall will weather(cold) be a consideration? 

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

Pitching in AAA doesn't decrease his workload. The phantom IL time allows him to not pitch and decrease his overall innings. No matter which way they do it, they need to find a way to keep his overall innings, regardless if it's MLB or MiLB, to about 170-180 absolute max, maybe even 160-170 due to the injury.

I think you missed the point.  You can send him to AAA and skip starts there.  I'd rather they do that than keep him on MLB roster and not use him, or just phantom DL him to skip starts.  There are multiple ways to manage the situation, but the best way to manage it (IMO) is to to take it slow in the early going in AAA and do what you can to get the year back.  

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I think you missed the point.  You can send him to AAA and skip starts there.  I'd rather they do that than keep him on MLB roster and not use him, or just phantom DL him to skip starts.  There are multiple ways to manage the situation, but the best way to manage it (IMO) is to to take it slow in the early going in AAA and do what you can to get the year back.  

I think he is to the point that he needs to learn to get MLB hitters out not AAA hitters. He would benefit more from doing this at the MLB level than AAA.

In addition he needs to build up his endurance and strength and frequently skipping starts isn't conducive to that. The best plan is to either start him out on a regular schedule and shut him down early or start him on the IL and make his first start in June. However, either way they are without a member of the rotation for a couple of months.

Edited July 24, 2019 by ptatc

[HOFHurt35]

Also need to keep in mind that it is very doubtful Cease will be given 200 innings next season.  

So he and Kopech both need to be looked at as 5th starters come April 2020. 

2021 is when I expect both those guys to be let loose and pitch 200+. 

 

[tray]

If he can still hit 100 mph maybe he can be the Closer.

[Heads22]

12 hours ago, tray said:

If he can still hit 100 mph maybe he can be the Closer.

Yeah, no. He's a starter until he's not.

[mqr]

12 hours ago, HOFHurt35 said:

Also need to keep in mind that it is very doubtful Cease will be given 200 innings next season.  

So he and Kopech both need to be looked at as 5th starters come April 2020. 

2021 is when I expect both those guys to be let loose and pitch 200+. 

 

There is no reason that Cease shouldn't be full go next year. Only 13 pitchers threw 200 last year anyway

Edited July 26, 2019 by mqr

[ChiSox59]

Hahn made an interesting comment last night in his podcast about Kopech.  Sure seems to me like Kopech opening the year in the minors is on the table.  

"At some point next year you can expect Kopech to join us.  I just don't know when he is going to be on the major league active roster.  His rehab has gone wonderfully, he is perfectly on pace and is going to be in spring training without restriction, and he is going to be over 18 months removed from having thrown a pitch in anger.  So let's let the kid develop and when he is ready, he is going to be back."

Edited August 9, 2019 by ChiSox59

[fathom]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Hahn made an interesting comment last night in his podcast about Kopech.  Sure seems to me like Kopech opening the year in the minors is on the table.  

"At some point next year you can except Kopech to join us.  I just don't know when he is going to be on the major league active roster.  His rehab has gone wonderfully, he is perfectly on pace and is going to be in spring training without restriction, and he is going to be over 18 months removed from having thrown a pitch in anger.  So let's let the kid develop and when he is ready, he is going to be back."

Agree with you here, that immediately came to mind hearing him say that.

[Jose Abreu]

19 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Hahn made an interesting comment last night in his podcast about Kopech.  Sure seems to me like Kopech opening the year in the minors is on the table.  

"At some point next year you can expect Kopech to join us.  I just don't know when he is going to be on the major league active roster.  His rehab has gone wonderfully, he is perfectly on pace and is going to be in spring training without restriction, and he is going to be over 18 months removed from having thrown a pitch in anger.  So let's let the kid develop and when he is ready, he is going to be back."

What is the "in anger" part referring to? 

[ChiSox59]

Just now, Jose Abreu said:

What is the "in anger" part referring to? 

Would assume he's referring to Kopech's demeanor on the mound, which could definitely be described as angry.  

[Ozzie for Manager]

If stupid parents and youth coaches would quit letting their kids pitch all summer we would have players that didn't have arms destroyed so young in their career. I run a PT and OT clinic in a outpatient hospital. These kids go year round now and its abuse. But that summer travel ball championship is important.