Sox changing up their amateur scouting department according to Mark Gonzales

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not always, the soft looping LD can end up resulting in extra bases where a frozen rope that doesn't clear the fence can end up as a single. 

I posted last night about many posters' inability to assess a spectrum of future outcomes and then properly group and weight them.  Some people refer to it as "smearing" outcomes.  I think you have a blind spot here you also argue it with your "hit is vastly more valuable than a walk" trope.  Tom Tango already did all the math on this shit he has the run values let me see if I can find his link.

Here you go. Data is a bit dated but it's still relevant.

Look at the data on runs scored with 1 out runner on 1st.  A walk is almost identical to a hit.  You can read the rest of the table yourself I'm sure.  Mostly you'll find the same.  In many cases, some surprising, a walk is equivalent to a hit for scoring runs.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Currently,  Abreu, Sheets, Burger, Collins, Yermin,  Vaughn of course, and probably Eloy,

And we have like 1.5 RF's at minimum 2 years out with no real high upside.  I just didn't like the pick because it's such an easy position to fill and our minor league OF's died.  

Eloy isn’t getting moved from LF.  Abreu is 32 years old and a free agent.  Burger hasn’t been on a baseball field in almost two years.  Mercedes is 26 year old DH who has beat up on less developed pitching most of his career.  That only leaves Collins & Sheets and both are far from sure things.  You don’t have to like the pick, but I think our depth at 1B is overrated.

[thxfrthmmrs]

19 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That may be true if you're the Yankees or Dodgers and always picking in the back of the draft but if you have a top pick you have to try to hit a home run every single time.  

I won’t pass a high probability double if that is there, that is what Madrigal and Vaughn are, not your 6+ WAR players but 3 WAR is a fairly obtainable with their profiles. Had these two not been there I think Sox would have been picking higher upside high risk picks, e.g. Abrams.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

This guy asks for correlation, and baseball slaps him right in the face with increased velocity has led to a dramatic increase in strike outs but he says it's not because people throw harder because players have adjusted.  Jack, you're all over the place pal.

Increased velocity isn't the only reason, but it is a reason for the increased k rate. Which is why madrigal should be ranked and judged vs his current peers and not vs shoeless joe Jackson and his k rate.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I posted last night about many posters' inability to assess a spectrum of future outcomes and then properly group and weight them.  Some people refer to it as "smearing" outcomes.  I think you have a blind spot here you also argue it with your "hit is vastly more valuable than a walk" trope.  Tom Tango already did all the math on this shit he has the run values let me see if I can find his link.

Here you go. Data is a bit dated but it's still relevant.

Look at the data on runs scored with 1 out runner on 1st.  A walk is almost identical to a hit.  You can read the rest of the table yourself I'm sure.  Mostly you'll find the same.  In many cases, some surprising, a walk is equivalent to a hit for scoring runs.

This table is the basis for wOBA, btw. I think it is superior to OBP. 

I was going to create a post about it. 

[fathom]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Eloy isn’t getting moved from LF.  Abreu is 32 years old and a free agent.  Burger hasn’t been on a baseball field in almost two years.  Mercedes is 26 year old DH who has beat up on less developed pitching most of his career.  That only leaves Collins & Sheets and both are far from sure things.  You don’t have to like the pick, but I think our depth at 1B is overrated.

Thank you!!!  Looks like a bunch of replacement level players at best. One thing as the rebuild kicks into contending that many fans have to recalibrate is what should be considered starting material.  No more Yolmer or “maybe Cordell or Tilson” or Rutherford.  Especially for positions like 1B and RF, we should be taking about impact bats.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This guy asks for correlation, and baseball slaps him right in the face with increased velocity has led to a dramatic increase in strike outs but he says it's not because people throw harder because players have adjusted.  Jack, you're all over the place pal.

Increased velocity isn't the only reason, but it is a reason for the increased k rate. Which is why madrigal should be ranked and judged vs his current peers and not vs shoeless joe Jackson and his k rate.

They changed the reference point in which they measure pitch velocity. They're not actually throwing harder. 

If pitchers were actually throwing harder on average, I don't think that hitters would be as good as they  were in the past. 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[BackDoorBreach]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Eloy isn’t getting moved from LF.  Abreu is 32 years old and a free agent.  Burger hasn’t been on a baseball field in almost two years.  Mercedes is 26 year old DH who has beat up on less developed pitching most of his career.  That only leaves Collins & Sheets and both are far from sure things.  You don’t have to like the pick, but I think our depth at 1B is overrated.

Our depth at 1B might be overrated but we don't have anything above fringe 4th OF types in the minors (aside from you know who).  I don't HATE the Vaughn pick I just would have been a little happier to get OF depth at the 3rd pick.  Especially since Vaughn and Bleday grade out similarly.

That doesn't mean I think the pick was wrong either just my preference.

Edited July 25, 2019 by BackDoorBreach

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

This table is the basis for wOBA, btw. I think it is superior to OBP. 

I was going to create a post about it. 

Cool. Then maybe you can help debunk the fact that pitchers are throwing harder... since you seem to think the recording system change (which had about a .5 mph+ impact on readings early last year) is the reason why the average MLB fastball is up like 3 MPH in 2 decades.

[southsideirish71]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

They changed the point in which they measure pitch velocity. They're not actually throwing harder.

Wat? Well fuck I missed out.  I was throwing 88-91mph back in the early 90s.  On todays standards I was probably throwing 95.  

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

This table is the basis for wOBA, btw. I think it is superior to OBP. 

I was going to create a post about it. 

No kidding!  Every single baseball fan that wants to understand the statistical revoltuion in baseball needs to read Tom Tango's work.  It, more than money ball (not even close) explains the beauty of the game to the math inclined.  I don't even really like math I got a C- in calc and dropped it but baseball only has so many outcomes, broken up into nice little discrete chunks, and the players replicate the dice rolls every single night for us to put into our databases and run the regressions on.  

This stuff, wOBA, the linear weights of events that led to its creation, this shit now almost 30 years old and many were working on more primitive (but still better than OPS) versions long before that.

In many ways fans that are just learning about sabermetrics now (with fWAR for example) are trying to learn Calculus when they can't do factoring or order of operation.  It ain't going to work.

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, fathom said:

Thank you!!!  Looks like a bunch of replacement level players at best. One thing as the rebuild kicks into contending that many fans have to recalibrate is what should be considered starting material.  No more Yolmer or “maybe Cordell or Tilson” or Rutherford.  Especially for positions like 1B and RF, we should be taking about impact bats.

If you had that list in OOTP you'd have a 20/35 brown bar next to every guy and one time out of thousand one of them actually pans out into something more than a decent regular.  If the Sox get one useful player out of that group I'd be happy.  

For every optimistic take that says Blake will grow into his frame and start to hit for power 8/10 guys like him never do find the power and remain AAAA talents or in his case probably a 4th OF.

[Jack Parkman]

19 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Cool. Then maybe you can help debunk the fact that pitchers are throwing harder... since you seem to think the recording system change (which had about a .5 mph+ impact on readings early last year) is the reason why the average MLB fastball is up like 3 MPH in 2 decades.

I remember when  MLB used Pitch f/x on gameday they used to show the velocity at both the pitcher's release and at home plate. 

I remember seeing once how the velocity would drop about 2-3 mph depending on the speed of the pitch. The slower the release velocity, the more the pitch would slow at home plate. a 93 mph fastball at release was around a 90 mph fastball at the plate, a 96 mph fastball at  release was just under 94 mph at the plate. 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[ptatc]

37 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It doesn't reach the level of statistical significance unless you have an r^2 of over 0.5, so none of those have a correlation that is anything close to having any meaning at all. 

R2 is value used in predictive models such as linear regressions to assign a predictive value to each variable. Correlations are not involved in this calculation.  Those are for use in calculations like Pearson  or spearman rho depending if you are using ordinal or nominal variablesl

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Our depth at 1B might be overrated but we don't have anything above fringe 4th OF types in the minors (aside from you know who).  I don't HATE the Vaughn pick I just would have been a little happier to get OF depth at the 3rd pick.  Especially since Vaughn and Bleday grade out similarly.

That doesn't mean I think the pick was wrong either just my preference.

Walker & Basabe definitely have starter ceilings.  Adolfo does too if he could stay on the field.  I’d take first two guys over all the 1B prospects you listed with the exception of Collins since there is still some chance he can stick behind the plate.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

No kidding!  Every single baseball fan that wants to understand the statistical revoltuion in baseball needs to read Tom Tango's work.  It, more than money ball (not even close) explains the beauty of the game to the math inclined.  I don't even really like math I got a C- in calc and dropped it but baseball only has so many outcomes, broken up into nice little discrete chunks, and the players replicate the dice rolls every single night for us to put into our databases and run the regressions on.  

This stuff, wOBA, the linear weights of events that led to its creation, this shit now almost 30 years old and many were working on more primitive (but still better than OPS) versions long before that.

In many ways fans that are just learning about sabermetrics now (with fWAR for example) are trying to learn Calculus when they can't do factoring or order of operation.  It ain't going to work.

I aced calculus and differential equations in college. I can do a derivative or integral in my head. 

Gabriel's horn was one of the coolest things in Calculus to me. an infinite surface area but a definite volume. 

Edited July 25, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

They changed the point in which they measure pitch velocity. They're not actually throwing harder.

Yes they are. Jack it is amazing how you read something on fangraphs and completely misrepresent what it says.

Did they change the point like 12 years in a row? No

To say pitchers don't throw harder today than 20 years ago is incredibly wrong

Let's see. Bullpens have gotten vastly better and bullpen velocity is absurdly higher. The amount of 100 mph pitches went from like 50 a year to 1000+. This trend grew and grew year over year. Do you see how that chart showed a steady rise?

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

I aced calculus and differential equations in college. I can do a derivative or integral in my head. 

and here you are arguing with the rest of us here on Soxtalk on a Wednesday night.  christ dude I know you have some issues with stepping outside your own head but your posts tonight have been condescending, rude, and obstinate at times.  

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes they are. Jack it is amazing how you read something on fangraphs and completely misrepresent what it says.

Did they change the point like 12 years in a row? No

To say pitchers don't throw harder today than 20 years ago is incredibly wrong

Let's see. Bullpens have gotten vastly better and bullpen velocity is absurdly higher. The amount of 100 mph pitches went from like 50 a year to 1000+. This trend grew and grew year over year. Do you see how that chart showed a steady rise?

lol the year they supposedly "rigged" the velocity increase via measurement change in '17 it actually went down.  you can't make this shit up.

Edited July 25, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

and here you are arguing with the rest of us here on Soxtalk on a Wednesday night.  christ dude I know you have some issues with stepping outside your own head but your posts tonight have been condescending, rude, and obstinate at times.  

Not trying to do that, thanks for telling me. I had no idea. That's autism for ya. 

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Not trying to do that, thanks for telling me. I had no idea. That's autism for ya. 

you're a great poster there are many here not even worth arguing with so yea.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

lol the year they supposedly "rigged" the velocity increase it actually went down.  you can't make this shit up.

My argument is that the comparison, let's say pre 2007 and post 2007 are two different data sets. 

If Juan Guzman was throwing 93 mph in 1993 (hypothetically) we have no idea what he was throwing at his release point. 

This is the plain and simple definition of moving the goalposts. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

My argument is that the comparison, let's say pre 2007 and post 2007 are two different data sets. 

If Juan Guzman was throwing 93 mph in 1993 (hypothetically) we have no idea what he was throwing at his release point. 

This is the plain and simple definition of moving the goalposts. 

That change didnt happen in 2007. They changed their velocity readings at the start of 2017, and by year end it didnt have a positive impact on velocity. It's the same data sets and you misunderstood what you read.

[southsideirish71]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

My argument is that the comparison, let's say pre 2007 and post 2007 are two different data sets. 

 If Juan Guzman was throwing 93 mph in 1993 (hypothetically) we have no idea what he was throwing at his release point. 

This is the plain and simple definition of moving the goalposts. 

Have they changed radar guns that scouts use.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

you're a great poster there are many here not even worth arguing with so yea.

I don't always get my point across immediately. Sometimes it takes discussion to actually get me to convey the point I was always trying to make. I'm not the best with communication in any form when it is instantaneous. I have to really sit and think about it a lot of the time. As I've become more comfortable on this forum, I haven't taken the time to do that as much. That is why it looks like I'm all over the place to you guys. In my early days on this forum, I used to let what I posted sit for an hour or two except in the gamethreads, to make sure I was conveying exactly the point I was intending to convey.