Quin Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 3 hours ago, vilehoopster said: Answer my two questions: do you really believe that Colome has only added (rounded up) two wins to the Sox this year, below average in the world of WAR? Yes or no? Do you really think that pitching the 9th is equal to pitching the first couple innings? Yes or no? If you answer truthfully, it's a LOL for me. Your thread and math are both terrible. Yes or yes? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 (edited) 8 hours ago, vilehoopster said: Now to Eminor3rd: "replacement level does NOT equal average. It equals replacement level. The average MLB contributor is roughly two wins above replacement level. Okay, I did do my research and I did see this statement and didn't deal with it. Thanks for letting me deal with it now. This is such a flawed idea. So computing Wins above Replacement, the baseline is 2. An average player has a 2 WAR. Does that make sense? Instead of just shaking your head, use it to think for a minute. Shouldn't the baseline when computing starts for an stat be zero: positive is above zero and negative is below zero. But for WAR, the baseline of average is 2, so the average player contributes to 2 wins a year. Shouldn't the average player contribute to zero wins a year, and a below average player hurt his team with losses (cough, cough Yonder A.??) There's a lack of logic there to me when the baseline for figuring out good or bad is already at plus 2 for average. Don't you see the bad logic there with average being plus 2 ?? Please read what you typed. Do you think that the word "replacement" and "average" are the same thing? No one set the baseline for "average" at two. They did actual research and math, and it TURNED OUT that the average player was about two wins better than a replacement-level player. And in that critical distinction lies the primary difference between the nonsense that you are spewing and the current consensus thoughts on baseball analysis: The current standards for analyzing player performance are the results of years of research and objective scrutiny, the conclusions based on no one's opinion, but rather the things that could be repeatedly proven. Your opinions, however, are based on you already deciding on a stance and then desperately trying to find a way to align random pieces of information to support that stance. That those random pieces of information are embarrassingly unrelated doesn't appear to faze you. There is no logic to what you're saying at all, but you don't actually care. Someone could prove you wrong to your face, and you'd still hold the same opinion you started with. And if you don't see what's wrong with that, then lord have mercy on your soul. Edited July 31, 2019 by Eminor3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vilehoopster Posted July 31, 2019 Author Share Posted July 31, 2019 13 hours ago, gusguyman said: You either agree with me, or you agree with me and are lying about it!!!! Did you mean to say: You either agree with me, or you disagree with me and are lying about it?? Is that what you meant to say. Because that would be correct. Last night was a perfect example of what happens in critical/ key situations when Colome or Bummer don't pitch: Bummer pitched the 9th, shutout; Colome the 10th, shutout; two pitchers combined to give the Mets a 3-run 11th inning. I was watching some show with Ozzie G. last night before the game, Baseball Chicago, I think. I think, please correct me if I'm wrong. but the stat is that the Sox are 35 and 1 this year if leading after the 7th inning, 35 and 1. Two people are responsible for that stat. Bummer and Colome. To say Colome has only been responsible for 1.7 wins to the Sox this year is just being stubborn and silly. It's like the tobacco companies in the 70s arguing that cigarettes don't cause cancer or denying that climate change isn't man-made. You're just BSing to totally win your argument. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 2 minutes ago, vilehoopster said: To say Colome has only been responsible for 1.7 wins to the Sox this year is just being stubborn and silly. It's like the tobacco companies in the 70s arguing that cigarettes don't cause cancer or denying that climate change isn't man-made. You're just BSing to totally win your argument. Lol...I don’t think @guygusman even made an argument, I think he was just ripping on you for how ridiculous you sound. You really need to settle down with the aggression Spanky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFutureIsNear Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 Nobody should looking at WAR for any player as the end all be all for anything. WAR is definitely useful, but there is an entire collection of data that needs to be considered. Colome’s low WAR is the least of my worries...it’s the fact that damn near every other stat screams luck and or regression is coming. That’s what scares me about not trading him now, we will be left with nothing but an overpriced reliever next year...even though I still don’t think we are seriously competing next year anyway, so I would definitely be looking to trade him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 47 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said: Nobody should looking at WAR for any player as the end all be all for anything. WAR is definitely useful, but there is an entire collection of data that needs to be considered. Colome’s low WAR is the least of my worries...it’s the fact that damn near every other stat screams luck and or regression is coming. That’s what scares me about not trading him now, we will be left with nothing but an overpriced reliever next year...even though I still don’t think we are seriously competing next year anyway, so I would definitely be looking to trade him. It's not even low! 1.7 is very good for a reliever, that's the funny part. But yeah, but yeah the other numbers are definitely terrifying, so I'm not sure it matters all that much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 5 hours ago, vilehoopster said: Did you mean to say: You either agree with me, or you disagree with me and are lying about it?? Is that what you meant to say. Because that would be correct. Last night was a perfect example of what happens in critical/ key situations when Colome or Bummer don't pitch: Bummer pitched the 9th, shutout; Colome the 10th, shutout; two pitchers combined to give the Mets a 3-run 11th inning. I was watching some show with Ozzie G. last night before the game, Baseball Chicago, I think. I think, please correct me if I'm wrong. but the stat is that the Sox are 35 and 1 this year if leading after the 7th inning, 35 and 1. Two people are responsible for that stat. Bummer and Colome. To say Colome has only been responsible for 1.7 wins to the Sox this year is just being stubborn and silly. It's like the tobacco companies in the 70s arguing that cigarettes don't cause cancer or denying that climate change isn't man-made. You're just BSing to totally win your argument. how many losses do you think an average team in baseball has when winning after 7 innings? Over a whole season it's about 5, league-wide. So the difference between 5 losses and 1 loss is 4...which you just split into 2 people, Bummer and Colome. You just made a convincing argument that a good closer is worth about 2 wins over a season and a good 8th inning guy is worth about 2 wins over a season. At the end of July 2018, there were 4 teams that had 0 losses when leading after 8. 3 of them had good closers, and a 4th, the Texas Rangers, was at the bottom of their division and had a tolerable bullpen, but they also had pretty poor starting pitching so they just didn't have many games when they were leading after 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vilehoopster Posted July 31, 2019 Author Share Posted July 31, 2019 8 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: Lol...I don’t think @guygusman even made an argument, I think he was just ripping on you for how ridiculous you sound. You really need to settle down with the aggression Spanky. Good point. Thanks for trying to keep me in line. I certainly do get a little obnoxious once I get going. With that said, I don't sound ridiculous. That you guys just completely accept WAR with no questions at all is rather ridiculous, just total blind acceptence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusguyman Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 9 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: Lol...I don’t think @guygusman even made an argument, I think he was just ripping on you for how ridiculous you sound. You really need to settle down with the aggression Spanky. After a good night's rest I realized it isn't even worth engaging him anymore. Where is that new Roofshot guy? At least he was willing to read up on WAR. That's a guy I can at least have a convo with lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 2 hours ago, vilehoopster said: Good point. Thanks for trying to keep me in line. I certainly do get a little obnoxious once I get going. With that said, I don't sound ridiculous. That you guys just completely accept WAR with no questions at all is rather ridiculous, just total blind acceptence. Dude, I literally said in this thread that WAR doesn’t account for context which is admittedly a short-coming. Are you actually reading our posts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeeElia Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 Colome gave up 3 runs today and took the loss, pushing his record to 3-2. Since wins and losses are all that matter and the closer gets full credit for 9 inning of results it’s fair to say that Colome lost 25% of his value today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 5 hours ago, LeeElia said: Colome gave up 3 runs today and took the loss, pushing his record to 3-2. Since wins and losses are all that matter and the closer gets full credit for 9 inning of results it’s fair to say that Colome lost 25% of his value today. Yup, down to ~4.5 on the season, still not bad for a closer. Too bad other front offices are still calculating WAR incorrectly and missed out on this opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mqr Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 14 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: Dude, I literally said in this thread that WAR doesn’t account for context which is admittedly a short-coming. Are you actually reading our posts? No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 On 7/28/2019 at 1:36 PM, vilehoopster said: Because I questioned a stat that few understand (including me) but everyone quotes, people comment with quick, unsupported witty comments, but so what. Where is my logic wrong. Is my definition of replacement wrong? Are my stats wrong? Was my math wrong. Tell where I'm wrong in my logic instead of just dismissing my statement with an insult. You are attributing entire wins to a player because of saves. Should we really have to explain to you why this is incorrect? It's self-evident. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 On 7/29/2019 at 12:45 PM, bmags said: That's what the "statniks" are trying to understand: how much of a players performance is indicative of their talent, and how much is indicative of the context it happened in. To accomplish this in the early days a scout would get on trains, planes, and automobiles to watch the guy play. Then videotape allowed scouts to stay in the office and open their mail to check talent. Now scouts can search the internet for a video. But a sharp eye for talent is now marginalized for mathematical equations. We want general managers and field managers to just check the stats and do whatever the stats suggest is best. Bmags post makes a lot of sense to me. I use advanced golf stats to help my players plan efficient shot selection and ultimately lower their scores. I'm not as interested in baseball stats because I prefer to watch and evaluate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dominikk85 Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 I wonder why he wasn 't traded. Wasn't a good offer on the table? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 I needed a thread to put this in and this was the most recent relevant one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perfect Vision Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 If I could only have access to two statistics -- one for position players and one for pitchers -- it would be OBP and WHIP. I think I could build a pretty good baseball team knowing just those two things. I do think we've taken new baseball statistics a bit too far in terms of their utility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said: If I could only have access to two statistics -- one for position players and one for pitchers -- it would be OBP and WHIP. I think I could build a pretty good baseball team knowing just those two things. I do think we've taken new baseball statistics a bit too far in terms of their utility. But why? OBP is purely a component of offensive value which is merely a component of overall value including defensive contribution and staying healthy (posting). That's why we have WAR. It combines all of those components and then calculates a player's relative value. Relative value is important as clearly baseball goes through different eras of production and a .350 OBP at the height of the silly ball era was a lot less impressive then during the dead ball era or the astroturf era. WAR allows us to contextualize contributions across every era. As for WHIP you're introducing a third element beyond a pitcher's control into your evaluation and that's the defense behind him. A good defense is going to save a hit or two every start over a poor one. Why should we credit the pitcher for having a great defense? Or punish him for having a poor one? That's why DIPS theory was invented and has evolved into SIERA and xFIP and other various defense independent metrics. Edited August 9, 2019 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold's Leg Lift Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 31 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said: If I could only have access to two statistics -- one for position players and one for pitchers -- it would be OBP and WHIP. I think I could build a pretty good baseball team knowing just those two things. I do think we've taken new baseball statistics a bit too far in terms of their utility. I'd go with: Hitter- home runs Pitcher- strike outs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted August 10, 2019 Share Posted August 10, 2019 6 hours ago, Balta1701 said: I needed a thread to put this in and this was the most recent relevant one. Finally an article @vilehoopster and @greg775 can get behind ??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted August 10, 2019 Share Posted August 10, 2019 20 hours ago, Balta1701 said: I needed a thread to put this in and this was the most recent relevant one. I was about to be mad that this thread was revived but this is gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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