The Brewers' Pitching Trap

[caulfield12]

 

We've spent a lot of time on here arguing whether Ivan Nova is really worth $9 million for what he brings to the table, but the Brewers' fear of investing in Free Agent pitching is befuddling at best.

God help us if Rick Hahn tries to follow the same "risk-aversion" path the next two offseasons on the starting pitching front.

OR MAYBE WE NEED TO HIRE DAVID STEARNS, lol?

You have one of the better starting line-ups in the National League (especially with Huira now), and you STILL went out of the way to save $5 million on Wade Freakin' Miley (who shut down the Cardinals at Busch)...with a payroll of around $122.5 million, your five highest paid players are on the position side.

How much did we spend on Nova, Jay, Herrera, McCann and Alonso?   Something like $30 million?

Can anyone explain this...because Stearns isn't stupid?  Is it the KW philosophy of "adding at the break/retooling at midseason" because they're a mid or small market team?  Is it an organizational philosophy (based on their experiences with Jimmy Nelson, Knebel and Suter) not to invest tons of money into the rotation?

 

The Brewers have 8 starting pitchers on the books for less than $20 million...

Chacin $6 million (pretty bad this year, amazingly solid last year)

Chase Anderson $6 million

Zach Davies $2.6 million

Gio Gonzalez $2+ million (incentives-based deal, brought back after spending 2017 there)

B.Woodruff $561,400

F.Peralta (now in the bullpen with Knebel out) $564,400

Brent Suter (out since last July with TJ surgery) $568,000

Jimmy Nelson (career might be over, he's their equivalent of Carlos Rodon), $3.7 million

 

I'm not sure whether it's impressive that they've been able to compete, or it's dumb, or both...but they're the perfect example of a team that should be 100% all-in/go for it mode...and that, just like the 2003 White Sox not being willing to pay Kenny Rogers the princely sum of $5 million, the Brewers are going to come up just short because they weren't willing to give Wade Miley that same amount of money sixteen years later.

Also, how you can look at that rotation realistically and believe it can match up with the Dodgers, Braves, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, etc.?

I think I would be pretty irate as a Brewers' fan, with how well they support that team up there at the gate.  If the Royals can go $131.5 million, $143 million and $122 million, so can the Brewers.

 

After 2005, the White Sox had the most expensive rotation in baseball when they added Javy Vazquez.

Now, it seems that the White Sox are aiming to have one of the best (and eventually most expensive as the rebuild moves on) starting line-ups...with one of the cheapest starting rotations in baseball.

Do you agree with following the Brewers' path, because of all the pitching injuries that are like an epidemic in baseball with max effort deliveries and a focus on just getting through the line-up twice (3-5 innings pitched)? 

Is it possible to get lucky in the playoffs without a great rotation or true top of the rotation guy (see 2014-15 KC Royals)...?   It got the Brewers to the World Series, almost.

To use more openers and invest and invest and invest into the bullpen...like the Brewers and Royals have done, creating "superpens" and even going with QUALITY openers to start games like Houser, Barnes and Burnes?

 

 

 

Edited July 28, 2019 by caulfield12

[35thstreetswarm]

No, and I don’t think that’s the FO plan.  It is an interesting reminder, though, that there’s a lot of ways to win ballgames.  Kind of amazing what the Brew Crew has done with that suspect starting 5.

[caulfield12]

27 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

No, and I don’t think that’s the FO plan.  It is an interesting reminder, though, that there’s a lot of ways to win ballgames.  Kind of amazing what the Brew Crew has done with that suspect starting 5.

Right, it was good enough to finish tied for the best record in the National League.

The difference this year is that Cain, Aguilar and Shaw aren’t producing...so the weight of the offense has shifted even more to Yelich, Grandal, Moustakas and Huira (last two months).

It also is an interesting lesson about going year to year on second tier free agents like Moustakas and Grandal that aren’t quite at the star level.  Cain was a great contract last year...but you can definitely see him on a downward arc this year.

 

And losing Knebel pushed everyone one step back in the bullpen...which will eventually lead to Hader getting worn down or injured like Sale at the end of every recent season.

[TaylorStSox]

This thread is really premature. The Brewers need to win now. The White Sox are in the middle of a rebuild. The rotation might be cheap again next year because it will most likely feature Gio, Lopez, Cease and Kopech. 

 

Comparing the Brewers to the Sox right now makes no sense. 

[Colinski]

42 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

This thread is really premature. The Brewers need to win now. The White Sox are in the middle of a rebuild. The rotation might be cheap again next year because it will most likely feature Gio, Lopez, Cease and Kopech. 

 

Comparing the Brewers to the Sox right now makes no sense. 

Comparing is too soon, but analysing their team, plan and it’s impliction for what we could do is an interesting topic. 

 

Id be furious as a Brewers fan, doesn’t mean necessarily i’d end up being right though I guess.

 

for what I mean for us, we need to get better at our free agency signings to match what the Brewers have done. Between that concern and my worry that we’ve not found enough disgarded/underrated diamonds for me is the risk of this rebuild, as the farm and trades (ignoring he who should no be mentioned in SD) have done all that can be done given injuries etc. 

Edited July 29, 2019 by Colinski

[Superstar Lamar]

I think the Cubs should be embarrassed to have the same record as the Brewers over the last two years when you compare their talent.

[caulfield12]

The point is that you can’t get too risk-averse when you really need to compete.

All of the signings Hahn has made since 2016 were basically “throwaway” deals that wouldn’t effect the long-term future of the ball club.

And there’s still talk of doing the same thing in RF and the starting rotation next year as well.  We’ve gone from a mentality of get both Machado/Harper back to a “second tier” free agency outlook, and that’s crazy for a franchise with more financial flexibility than any team in MLB.

At some point, they’re going to have to commit big time, like the Cubs did with Lester and the Royals with Shields.  From that point onwards, it’s all about winning with no going back.  No more excuses or half measures.

[TaylorStSox]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

 

And there’s still talk of doing the same thing in RF and the starting rotation next year as well.  

Talk from who? Fans on a message board? 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, Colinski said:

Comparing is too soon, but analysing their team, plan and it’s impliction for what we could do is an interesting topic. 

 

Id be furious as a Brewers fan, doesn’t mean necessarily i’d end up being right though I guess.

 

for what I mean for us, we need to get better at our free agency signings to match what the Brewers have done. Between that concern and my worry that we’ve not found enough disgarded/underrated diamonds for me is the risk of this rebuild, as the farm and trades (ignoring he who should no be mentioned in SD) have done all that can be done given injuries etc. 

One of the best trades of all-time to get Yelich...two years ago, it was Thames, last year Shaw, Cain, Moustakas and Aguilar (Schoop was hurt).  Huira coming up this year.

The point is you make 2-3 moves every year that improve your team.  Other than Braun, they’ve never locked into a bad contract...and signing 1-2 year deals with high quality veteran free agents has worked out well.

In the end, you still need to have one proven TOR starter.

Nevertheless, Chacin and the bullpen almost pulled off a miracle in 2018. 

Still, to be objective, there’s simply no way the Cubs should be on the ropes with a core of Bryant/Rizzo/Baez/Contreras and almost double the payroll as Milwaukee.

[caulfield12]

Just now, TaylorStSox said:

Talk from who? Fans on a message board? 

From looking at the same list of available free agents and rumored trade targets and discussing it over and over again.

Unless we bring back Kenny Williams to find another Eaton or Quentin...for the life of me, I can’t even remember the last time we turned lead into gold with one of those patented page 18 in the sports section moves, probably Alejandro de Aza.

[TaylorStSox]

5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

From looking at the same list of available free agents and rumored trade targets and discussing it over and over again.

Unless we bring back Kenny Williams to find another Eaton or Quentin...for the life of me, I can’t even remember the last time we turned lead into gold with one of those patented page 18 in the sports section moves, probably Alejandro de Aza.

So basically there's talk from nobody. None of us have a clue what they'll do. We can only speculate. Hopefully, they grab a veteran lefty. They need a lefty who can stay healthy, add a veteran presence and help stabilize the rotation. I still have a lot of faith in Gio, Lopez and Cease. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, TaylorStSox said:

So basically there's talk from nobody. None of us have a clue what they'll do. We can only speculate. Hopefully, they grab a veteran lefty. They need a lefty who can stay healthy, add a veteran presence and help stabilize the rotation. I still have a lot of faith in Gio, Lopez and Cease. 

I guess...but the White Sox are nothing, if not predictable.   I watched Bumgarner for most of his start yesterday, and those wanting him or Hamels are going to end up disappointed.  We invariably get those veterans 3-5 years too late, when they’re more of a big name than an All-Star.  Realistically, the odds of him leaving the NL and choosing the White Sox are slim.

[TaylorStSox]

15 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I guess...but the White Sox are nothing, if not predictable.   I watched Bumgarner for most of his start yesterday, and those wanting him or Hamels are going to end up disappointed.  We invariably get those veterans 3-5 years too late, when they’re more of a big name than an All-Star.  Realistically, the odds of him leaving the NL and choosing the White Sox are slim.

They don't need to be an All Star. They need to be left handed and eat innings. The entire rebuild is hinging on the arms of Gio, Kopech, Cease and Lopez. If they fail, the rebuild fails. We aren't going to buy a rotation. 

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

They don't need to be an All Star. They need to be left handed and eat innings. The entire rebuild is hinging on the arms of Gio, Kopech, Cease and Lopez. If they fail, the rebuild fails. We aren't going to buy a rotation. 

We need a #2 and #4 from outside the organization.  It’s very obvious, just as it’s equally obvious we’re not going to pay $200+ million to Cole.  The ace has to come from our own 40 man roster.

[TaylorStSox]

19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We need a #2 and #4 from outside the organization.  It’s very obvious, just as it’s equally obvious we’re not going to pay $200+ million to Cole.  The ace has to come from our own 40 man roster.

We don't need a number 2. We have 4 quality young starters. Lopez might even end up being the best of the bunch. All 4 have number 1 or 2 stuff. There's more quality arms in the minors. At least 1 of Dunning, Pilkington, Lambert or Stiever will be a quality starter. 

[caulfield12]

Fine, name a playoff team other than the Mets with their future dynasty of young arms (2014-2016) that hasn't had veteran leadership in the top 2-3 spots in the rotation?

(And I don't think anyone will confuse our staff with Harvey at his peak, deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz, Niese, etc.)

Edited July 29, 2019 by caulfield12

[TaylorStSox]

18 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Fine, name a playoff team other than the Mets with their future dynasty of young arms (2014-2016) that hasn't had veteran leadership in the top 2-3 spots in the rotation?

(And I don't think anyone will confuse our staff with Harvey at his peak, deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz, Niese, etc.)

I literally said in this thread they need to sign a veteran lefty. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, TaylorStSox said:

I literally said in this thread they need to sign a veteran lefty. 

Then we’re just differing on the quality/acquisition cost of that lefty, whether it’s Bumgarner, Ryu, Hamels, M.Gonzales, etc.

[TaylorStSox]

9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Then we’re just differing on the quality/acquisition cost of that lefty, whether it’s Bumgarner, Ryu, Hamels, M.Gonzales, etc.

Well, you think we "need" to pick up 2 pitchers and I think we only need 1. Obviously I'd prefer the best pitcher they can get. 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Well, you think we "need" to pick up 2 pitchers and I think we only need 1. Obviously I'd prefer the best pitcher they can get. 

Yes, because every one of our current top 7 pitchers (IL or not) other than Lopez has already had one Tommy John surgery...unless we are already putting Stiever, Dahlquist and Thompson ahead of them.

Edited July 29, 2019 by caulfield12

[TaylorStSox]

48 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes, because every one of our current top 7 pitchers (IL or not) other than Lopez has already had one Tommy John surgery...unless we are already putting Stiever, Dahlquist and Thompson ahead of them.

So get 2 starters and do what with Lopez? Put him in the pen? That's crazy. 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

So get 2 starters and do what with Lopez? Put him in the pen? That's crazy. 

Well, Kopech is probably going to be in the minors the first six weeks next season, and Rodon back in July or August.

You can never have too much pitching, there’s no such thing.  All one has to do is go through the list of everyonwho has started a game for the White Sox this season.

Besides, a month ago half the board had already given up on Lopez, now 3 starts later, he’s back to an integral part?

 

Giolito

#2 acquisition

#3 acquisition

Lopez

Cease/Dunning (who probably needs at least 2-3 months in the minors anyway)

 

Undoubtedly, one of those five will be dealing with injuries or ineffectiveness by the middle of May when Kopech returns after they’ve clawed back an additional year of control.

Rodon can’t be counted on for anything...but we’ll just have to wait and see where he is at the end of July in his rehabilitation.  If we were still talking about the Brewers, he’s be represented by Jimmy Nelson.

 

[TaylorStSox]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Well, Kopech is probably going to be in the minors the first six weeks next season, and Rodon back in July or August.

You can never have too much pitching, there’s no such thing.  All one has to do is go through the list of everyonwho has started a game for the White Sox this season.

Besides, a month ago half the board had already given up on Lopez, now 3 starts later, he’s back to an integral part?

 

Giolito

#2 acquisition

#3 acquisition

Lopez

Cease/Dunning (who probably needs at least 2-3 months in the minors anyway)

 

Undoubtedly, one of those five will be dealing with injuries or ineffectiveness by the middle of May when Kopech returns after they’ve clawed back an additional year of control.

Rodon can’t be counted on for anything...but we’ll just have to wait and see where he is at the end of July in his rehabilitation.  If we were still talking about the Brewers, he’s be represented by Jimmy Nelson.

 

It doesn't matter what the board says. Who cares? 

 

The part in bold is bat shit crazy. 

 

 

[caulfield12]

3 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

It doesn't matter what the board says. Who cares? 

 

The part in bold is bat shit crazy. 

 

 

And it’s even crazier to think that Kopech and Cease can simply be penciled in at 2 and 3 in the rotation and never worried about again.

3 starts ago, Lopez was doomed.

7 starts ago, Giolito was a leading candidate for the Cy Young.

We won’t know until the end of the season, and even then...won’t know for sure until the first half next season.  There’s just way too much volatility or lack of predictability with this particular group (who any of them could end up like Rodon or Burger with another major injury.)

That’s why the rotation is screaming for outside support and leadership.

There isn’t one team in baseball where six of the top seven pitchers (including Lambert) all have TJS in their backgrounds...yet such unproven major league track records.

Edited July 29, 2019 by caulfield12

[poppysox]

6 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

We don't need a number 2. We have 4 quality young starters. Lopez might even end up being the best of the bunch. All 4 have number 1 or 2 stuff. There's more quality arms in the minors. At least 1 of Dunning, Pilkington, Lambert or Stiever will be a quality starter. 

I like your thinking.  I agree.