The fragility of some fans on this board recently...

[GermanSoxFan]

You are way too hung up on a throwaway remark Hostetler made in a fluff piece about Collins.

[Chicago White Sox]

10 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Yes, we've gone 4-13 in the last 17 and it hasn't been pretty.

Yes, it is hard to watch teams like Minnesota and Oakland absolutely trounce us. 

Yes, it's worrisome to watch guys like Giolito and Cease struggle, sometimes mightily.

However, I think we need to get a collective grip on what real swings of a baseball season are, even for competitive teams, because I think the board has taken a sharp dive towards unbearable lately with some of the sky-is-falling/rebuild has failed talk, especially in game threads. The very best teams struggle to win 60% of their games in no small part because even great playoff teams have 20 game stretches where they play like absolute garbage. I urge you to consider the following before condemning the entire front office, managerial staff, and organization for what's been going on recently:

That currently, even with the terrifying bad stretch of baseball we've been playing, this team is still on pace to win about 73 games. How many wins did you have them down for at the beginning of the season? I had them down for about 74 and I considered that optimistic. 

That the following good teams have had the following awful stretches of baseball this year:

Yankees: 4-8 games 2 through 13 of the season, and then 3-8 in early June. 

Red Sox: 6-13 through first 19 games of the season (are 12 over now)

Minnesota: 12-16 stretch recently. 

Houston: lost 7 in a row and 9 of 11. 

Oakland: started the season 14-19 and are 12 over now.

Those are currently the five best teams in the American League, and they've all had 2-3 week stretches where they have played WAY below their ability.  Not because they suck, but because that's variance, that's baseball, and those are stretches.  

 Yes, 4-13 is a different beast, but 4-13 for a team that is expected to win maybe 77 games at best is similar to 8-12 for a team that expects to win 90. 

I think what's also been lost in a lot of talk recently too is that I see little mention of people putting into context that we DFA'd our DH without an ML replacement, have been playing without TA for a while, and Eloy went down, and much more mention about how this is failing. 

We are in a bad stretch. At some point this season, this team will snap out of it and suddenly with 4 in a row or 7 of 8 and that won't make any sense either. 

Because that's baseball. 

I still think we are on track. 

Great post Hibbard.  Unfortunately what separates us fans from baseball executives is the need to remain rational during rough patches.  This recent stretch has been enduring for many reasons and it’s admittedly hard to remain level-headed & objective.  

That being said, a lot of the reasons just don’t matter.  The pitching staff outside of Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Bummer, & Fry (and Ruiz, Colome, & Herrera to a lesser extent) is pretty much irrelevant.  The vast majority of these guys won’t be around next year.  The same applies to the offense and even more so in recent weeks with Anderson & Eloy out.  Guys like Reed, Jay, & Sanchez don’t matter and aren’t worth freaking about on a daily basis in game threads.

The part that does bother me a bit is the relentless panicking over any struggles from the young guys.  The hot takes & over-reactions to Giolito’s rough patch have been ridiculous as the kid is just 25 years old and has made significant strides this year.  He looks legit now even when things go wrong.  There have been similar over-reactions to other guys as well (like the move Eloy to DH every time he makes a bad play), but to a much smaller degree.  At the end of the day, this season has been fantastic for the young guys, with Moncada, Eloy, Timmy, Giolito, & Bummer all showing significant improvement.  Young guys are going to have their rough moments, which is why we shouldn’t overreact to every single pitch / at-bat like some occasionally do.  There is reason to be cautious right now given the lack of depth behind our top prospects, but there’s absolutely no reason to panic until we start seeing key guys failing.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Didn’t we already try this by making a poor trade for Samardzija and signing Robertson/Cabrera/LaRoche...as soon as we start to place our contention hopes on the backs of the Todd Frazier’s of the world, we’ll be stuck in baseball purgatory forever.

I’d only consider one of those three free agent signings you mention as “second tier.” That would be Robertson. The other two were third/fourth tier guys. For example, I consider guys like Bumgarner, Grandal, Ryu, Didi, etc. second tier guys. Those would all be good signings and capable of contributing at a relatively high level for the next few years.

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Great post Hibbard.  Unfortunately what separates us fans from baseball executives is the need to remain rational during rough patches.  This recent stretch has been enduring for many reasons and it’s admittedly hard to remain level-headed & objective.  

That being said, a lot of the reasons just don’t matter.  The pitching staff outside of Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Bummer, & Fry (and Ruiz, Colome, & Herrera to a lesser extent) is pretty much irrelevant.  The vast majority of these guys won’t be around next year.  The same applies to the offense and even more so in recent weeks with Anderson & Eloy out.  Guys like Reed, Jay, & Sanchez don’t matter and aren’t worth freaking about on a daily basis in game threads.

The part that does bother me a bit is the relentless panicking over any struggles from the young guys.  The hot takes & over-reactions to Giolito’s rough patch have been ridiculous as the kid is just 25 years old and has made significant strides this year.  He looks legit now even when things go wrong.  There have been similar over-reactions to other guys as well (like the move Eloy to DH every time he makes a bad play), but to a much smaller degree.  At the end of the day, this season has been fantastic for the young guys, with Moncada, Eloy, Timmy, Giolito, & Bummer all showing significant improvement.  Young guys are going to have their rough moments, which is why we shouldn’t overreact to every single pitch / at-bat like some occasionally do.  There is reason to be cautious right now given the lack of depth behind our top prospects, but there’s absolutely no reason to panic until we start seeing key guys failing.

Great post, especially the last paragraph. It's hard for me to see this season as anything but a major success for the rebuild so far, as all the players who actually matter are performing well.

For all the freaking out about the ebbs and flows of the season for the players you mentioned, it's interesting how Moncada has been a top-12 position player in baseball, a legitimate MVP-caliber player and the best all-around position player on the White Sox since either Magglio Ordonez or Frank Thomas, yet the only posts I see about him (for the most part) are complaints about the occasional misplay or minor injury. It's clear to me that incessant complaining about anything and everything is preferred for many, even when glaring positives are staring them right in the face. I'm not saying that everything is perfect, but I am saying that things aren't nearly as bad as people are making them out to be. 

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Great post Hibbard.  Unfortunately what separates us fans from baseball executives is the need to remain rational during rough patches.  This recent stretch has been enduring for many reasons and it’s admittedly hard to remain level-headed & objective.  

That being said, a lot of the reasons just don’t matter.  The pitching staff outside of Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Bummer, & Fry (and Ruiz, Colome, & Herrera to a lesser extent) is pretty much irrelevant.  The vast majority of these guys won’t be around next year.  The same applies to the offense and even more so in recent weeks with Anderson & Eloy out.  Guys like Reed, Jay, & Sanchez don’t matter and aren’t worth freaking about on a daily basis in game threads.

The part that does bother me a bit is the relentless panicking over any struggles from the young guys.  The hot takes & over-reactions to Giolito’s rough patch have been ridiculous as the kid is just 25 years old and has made significant strides this year.  He looks legit now even when things go wrong.  There have been similar over-reactions to other guys as well (like the move Eloy to DH every time he makes a bad play), but to a much smaller degree.  At the end of the day, this season has been fantastic for the young guys, with Moncada, Eloy, Timmy, Giolito, & Bummer all showing significant improvement.  Young guys are going to have their rough moments, which is why we shouldn’t overreact to every single pitch / at-bat like some occasionally do.  There is reason to be cautious right now given the lack of depth behind our top prospects, but there’s absolutely no reason to panic until we start seeing key guys failing.

Don’t you think we’re all jumping on the Bummer bandwagon too quickly?  Look at Fry last year...he looked almost as dominant in long stretches.  Or the career of Nate Jones.  When it comes down to it, we don’t really know how he will pitch in high leverage situations in the middle of a legitimate pennant race.  

Not saying he’s Daniel Palka and empty stats, but we’ve seen a lot of false positives, like Yolmer and Delmonico...a really decent stretch from a Covey here, Engel looking like the best CFer in baseball for a month or so.

There’s always that fear that it will just fall apart.  “Poof!” as Hawk would often say.

I’m not sure the last three years have added one position player who wouldn’t be the last roster spot on the Dodgers or Astros.

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

Don’t you think we’re all jumping on the Bummer bandwagon too quickly?  Look at Fry last year...he looked almost as dominant in long stretches.  Or the career of Nate Jones.  When it comes down to it, we don’t really know how he will pitch in high leverage situations in the middle of a legitimate pennant race.  

Not saying he’s Daniel Palka and empty stats, but we’ve seen a lot of false positives, like Yolmer and Delmonico...a really decent stretch from a Covey here, Engel looking like the best CFer in baseball for a month or so.

There’s always that fear that it will just fall apart.  “Poof!” as Hawk would often say.

I’m not sure the last three years have added one position player who wouldn’t be the last roster spot on the Dodgers or Astros.

This post presented some valid points and concerns (although I disagree that Fry should be a cautionary tale, as he's still good), but then you ended it with an outrageous claim. Do you truly think that Moncada and Anderson would be the 25th man on those teams? 

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’d only consider one of those three free agent signings you mention as “second tier.” That would be Robertson. The other two were third/fourth tier guys. For example, I consider guys like Bumgarner, Grandal, Ryu, Didi, etc. second tier guys. Those would all be good signings and capable of contributing at a relatively high level for the next few years.

Ryu’s great, when healthy.  Not sure the White Sox can afford to overpay based on one season of full health and disregard the rest of his track record.  For a team with the budget to house 7-8 starters, he’s almost perfect, as long as he’s rested and ready to go at playoff time.  But that wouldn’t be his role in Chicago.

[Dick Allen]

20 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

You are way too hung up on a throwaway remark Hostetler made in a fluff piece about Collins.

So ignore what they say, they don't mean it unless it works out perfectly. He said it, he owns it. There have been many bad decisions, by many people. There will be more bad decisions, but there better be some good ones, and not just the ones anyone can make. 

[caulfield12]

Just now, Jose Abreu said:

This post presented some valid points and concerns (although I disagree that Fry should be a cautionary tale, as he's still good), but then you ended it with an outrageous claim. Do you truly think that Moncada and Anderson would be the 25th man on those teams? 

I was talking about beyond the obvious core players...there are three in the majors, three in the minors.

A month or two ago, you could squint and see James McCann added to that list, but it seems we’re back on the Grandal or bust bandwagon again.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Ryu’s great, when healthy.  Not sure the White Sox can afford to overpay based on one season of full health and disregard the rest of his track record.  For a team with the budget to house 7-8 starters, he’s almost perfect, as long as he’s rested and ready to go at playoff time.  But that wouldn’t be his role in Chicago.

I’d love to see a 6 man of Bumgarner, Giolito, Ryu, Cease, Kopech, Lopez. Rodon can work long relief/spot starter when he returns from injury.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, Dick Allen said:

So ignore what they say, they don't mean it unless it works out perfectly. He said it, he owns it. There have been many bad decisions, by many people. There will be more bad decisions, but there better be some good ones, and not just the ones anyone can make. 

Well, here’s the thing.  If Collins was a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year this season out of that draft slot...with that 1-1 quote and all the doubters among professional scouts and baseball publications quieted, Hostetler would be joining Paddy (Adolfo, Abreu, Tatis, Robert) at near genius status.  

He might even have been headed for Hahn’s job, had Burdi and Hansen lived up to their first-year billing.

(Of course, we leave out the long list of failed Latin American prospects since 2012 along the way with Paddy and pretend it doesn’t exist due to those four names.)

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’d love to see a 6 man of Bumgarner, Giolito, Ryu, Cease, Kopech, Lopez. Rodon can work long relief/spot starter when he returns from injury.

And so would every contending team in baseball.  Think what the Brewers could do, instead of Gio in the twilight of his career?

Angels...Twins...Red Sox...Yankees...Rangers...Phillies...Padres...the list goes on and on.   Not to mention the Dodgers, of course.  

And as long as fans don’t expect 2012-2014 Bumgarner.

[mqr]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

Don’t you think we’re all jumping on the Bummer bandwagon too quickly?  Look at Fry last year...he looked almost as dominant in long stretches.  Or the career of Nate Jones.  When it comes down to it, we don’t really know how he will pitch in high leverage situations in the middle of a legitimate pennant race.  

Not saying he’s Daniel Palka and empty stats, but we’ve seen a lot of false positives, like Yolmer and Delmonico...a really decent stretch from a Covey here, Engel looking like the best CFer in baseball for a month or so.

There’s always that fear that it will just fall apart.  “Poof!” as Hawk would often say.

I’m not sure the last three years have added one position player who wouldn’t be the last roster spot on the Dodgers or Astros.

.186/.313/293

That is the triple slash line against Jace Fry since April 12. The ERA has been 2.61. Hasn't allowed a run in 11 outings. Idk why people are still treating him like a total pumpkin. He's walking too many guys but he's still striking out 12 guys /9. 

Edited July 29, 2019 by mqr

[skooch]

I keep reading glib statements that half the players on the roster won't be around when we're ready to contend. It seems like that should be the case, but I think it glosses-over the fact that you're then relying on the people who put us in this position to begin with to fill those spots. I would not describe talent evaluation/development to be an organizational strength. Are you confident that they will do a good job? On a scale of 1-10 (1=low, 10=high), how confident are you that they will be competent or excel at this aspect? Or will we just end up with different flotsam? Sign me up for a 3 or 4.

[mqr]

Just now, skooch said:

I keep reading glib statements that half the players on the roster won't be around when we're ready to contend. It seems like that should be the case, but I think it glosses-over the fact that you're then relying on the people who put us in this position to begin with to fill those spots. I would not describe talent evaluation/development to be an organizational strength. Are you confident that they will do a good job? On a scale of 1-10 (1=low, 10=high), how confident are you that they will be competent or excel at this aspect? Or will we just end up with different flotsam? Sign me up for a 3 or 4.

That still doesn't make it worth sweating what Jon Jay/ AJ Reed/ Ryan Goins are doing. 

[skooch]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

That still doesn't make it worth sweating what Jon Jay/ AJ Reed/ Ryan Goins are doing. 

This is probably true, but I think the "we'll turn over half the roster when it's time" crowd is whistling past the graveyard.

[Jose Abreu]

Just now, skooch said:

This is probably true, but I think the "we'll turn over half the roster when it's time" crowd is whistling past the graveyard.

The point is that there really aren't that many holes to fill. The only positions I am not confident about for the next ~5 years as of right now are RF, DH, and 2 SP. We have so much young talent and depth relative to past years that it really isn't half of the roster. 

[Baron]

3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

The point is that there really aren't that many holes to fill. The only positions I am not confident about for the next ~5 years as of right now are RF, DH, and 2 SP. We have so much young talent and depth relative to past years that it really isn't half of the roster. 

Rick Hahn being trusted to fill out those spots no matter how many there are is the problem. 

[Hatchetman]

The recent swan dive just made it clear just how far away we still are from competing. To think all these guys in the minors and coming off major injuries are going to come up and set the world on fire is a pipe dream.

 

[turnin' two]

38 minutes ago, mqr said:

.186/.313/597

That is the triple slash line against Jace Fry since April 12. The ERA has been 2.61. Hasn't allowed a run in 11 outings. Idk why people are still treating him like a total pumpkin. He's walking too many guys but he's still striking out 12 guys /9. 

So, the BAA is great, but an OPS against of .910?  That is rough.  Are those the real numbers? That is every hitter essentially being better than Nolan Arenado (.900) Juan Soto (.904) Mookie Betts (.892) or Yoan Moncada (.893).

In particular that SLG against, is just scary.  There are only 7 players in MLB this year so far with a SLG of .597 (Josh Bell) or higher.  They are Springer, Cruz, Rendon, Trout, Yelich and Bellinger.

That is a weird place to build support for a pitcher.  

Edited July 29, 2019 by turnin' two

[mqr]

Just now, turnin' two said:

So, the BAA is great, but an OPS against of .910?  That is rough.  That is every hitter essentially being better than Nolan Arenado (.900) Juan Soto (.904) Mookie Betts (.892) or Yoan Moncada (.893).

In particular that SLG against, is just scary.  There are only 7 players in MLB this year so far with a SLG of .597 (Josh Bell) or higher.  They are Springer, Cruz, Rendon, Trout, Yelich and Bellinger.

That is a weird place to build support for a pitcher.  

The OPS is .597, the slugging is .293. I misspoke

[turnin' two]

1 minute ago, mqr said:

The OPS is .597, the slugging is .293. I misspoke

Hahaha, ok.  Phew.  That is much better.

[mqr]

4 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Hahaha, ok.  Phew.  That is much better.

Walks are definitely concerning, but I really disagree with the idea that keeps floating around that Sox should regret not trading Fry last year. 

[Harold's Leg Lift]

38 minutes ago, Baron said:

Rick Hahn being trusted to fill out those spots no matter how many there are is the problem. 

Yep.  

[Harold's Leg Lift]

31 minutes ago, Hatchetman said:

The recent swan dive just made it clear just how far away we still are from competing. To think all these guys in the minors and coming off major injuries are going to come up and set the world on fire is a pipe dream.

 

Yep.