Hahn expects aggressive offseason

[Thad Bosley]

13 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Well ,really the time to shift gears was at the start of the rebuild which would have meant overhauling the front office and getting modern in player development. Did you see what I wrote in the other thread about how the Astros signed Gerrit Cole or the number of high speed camera the Astros use throughout their system ? Can you honestly say the Sox could use that kind of approach with a FA pitcher ? They are woefully unprepared to sign anyone of consequence and even if Reinsdorf loosens the purse strings can he do it without imposing the constraints like the Machado contract offer ?

It not even about acquiring premium talent. It's about using your resources and spending money to improve your chances to acquire that talent. It's not about how Chicago is a great town but how White Sox will do what it takes to modernize their thinking to develop talent from 15 year old intl talent to all talent throughout the system. I can't be confident they know even know how to get premium talent or what to do with it even if the money offered is enough to acquire it.

First off, you are a great poster.  Always enjoy reading your thoughts and insights relating to our Sox.  Much appreciated!

Second, as it relates to all of the “modernization” improvements you referred to, shouldn’t those have been “in scope”, if you will, of the overall “rebuilding” project objectives, to enhance/implement such improvements?  

If Hahn, at his age, is worth anything, shouldn’t the advances as you point out that a team like the Astros made when they “rebuilt”, shouldn’t Rick had been pushing and advocating for, and insisting on, similar advances?  If you have to go the route of a multi-year rebuilding effort, surely it cannot just be trading your young, cost-controlled assets for a bevy of prospects and simply waiting for those players to advance to the Majors.   

Thats the piece of the puzzle I’ve found most interesting since Ye Olde Rebuild began - did they actually address the true root causes in scouting and player development that caused the need for the rebuild in the first place?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

22 minutes ago, Thad Bosley said:

First off, you are a great poster.  Always enjoy reading your thoughts and insights relating to our Sox.  Much appreciated!

Second, as it relates to all of the “modernization” improvements you referred to, shouldn’t those have been “in scope”, if you will, of the overall “rebuilding” project objectives, to enhance/implement such improvements?  

If Hahn, at his age, is worth anything, shouldn’t the advances as you point out that a team like the Astros made when they “rebuilt”, shouldn’t Rick had been pushing and advocating for, and insisting on, similar advances?  If you have to go the route of a multi-year rebuilding effort, surely it cannot just be trading your young, cost-controlled assets for a bevy of prospects and simply waiting for those players to advance to the Majors.   

Thats the piece of the puzzle I’ve found most interesting since Ye Olde Rebuild began - did they actually address the true root causes in scouting and player development that caused the need for the rebuild in the first place?

Thanks I think some times you get a bad rep for being negative about the front office but  its all warranted.Your rep isn't warranted  but the criticism of the FO is just to be clear.  Everything you say in your post is true which was my point and many others at the start of the rebuild.

They are half assing it as usual, unable or unwilling to spend it the areas that need spending when you decide to use young talent as a base for future success. Hahn may or may not have pushed for it but to me it's all on Jerry. He is the Chairman and I'm sure he takes his responsibilities to the rest of the ownership group more seriously than he takes doing what is truly necessary to build a winner. After all he won a World Series without all those things before. But sustained success is a different animal and according to Hahn rhetoric that is the goal and if you aren't  going to spend on player payroll like teams with sustained winning like the Dodgers , Yankees Red Sox then you better spend it developing young talent to maximize it's value.

Edited August 4, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Thad Bosley said:

Next year will be the 15th year since the team won the WS, and they’ve only returned to the postseason ONCE since then, playing in all of just four games, and with only ONE WIN to show for it.  That last and only post ‘05 playoff occurrence happened way back when George W. Bush was wrapping up his second term in office. 

2008.  The team we know, love, and follow hasn’t been to the playoffs in 11 freaking years (and counting).  11 years, and this in a set-up that has not one but two wild card opportunities!  4th longest playoff drought in all of baseball (and counting).

How much more “rebuilding” does this team need to do?  They’ve gotten all of the blue chip prospects they’re going to get via trade.  They’ll get another shot at adding a valuable piece in the draft next year.  

But it would seem now is the time to shift gears and get out of this revolting “tank” mode that inflicts hideously played baseball on our fan base and onto a strategy that genuinely and purposefully tries to bring sustainable winning baseball to the South Side.  This means acquiring some “premium talent” on the open market, like other successful franchises do.  

Premium F*cking Talent.  No excuses.  They have all of the financial flexibility and wherewithal to do so.  So do it!  2020 should be a year focused on competing for the postseason once again, particularly for this team that plays in the weakest division in all of baseball.  

Only the Mariners and Padres have longer playoff droughts...

[SoxAce]

4 hours ago, Sarava said:

You're killing me with all these damn edits today lol.

He seemingly does that in almost every post he makes now.

[GreenSox]

5 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

If you squint a bit you can see the makings of a decent bullpen. They have two darn good lefties in Bummer and Fry. Colome is here for now, they need to find some more RH arms out of the pen. 

The SP isn't as dire as you think either. They don't necessarily need a Cole/Strasburg type, but it would be nice if they could land one. I keep coming back to Bumgarner. He shouldn't be nearly as expensive and he's a good bet to be #3 quality for his entire contract. 

They're not 10 pitchers short. 

Lopez still has upside, he can be a #4-5, Giolito and Cease have TOR stuff, how much they'll put it together remains to be seen. Kopech is coming back in March, idk wtf they're doing with Rodon. 

 

The Sox have 1/2 a bullpen:  Colome, Marshall, Bummer, Fry.  I like all of those guys.  But none are great.  The rest of the bullpen is not major league quality; yes 1 or 2 may improve, but really bad right now.  That's 4 short.
The starting staff:  Giolito is 1.  Cease is a "probably" - I'll rate him as a .75.  I still think Lopez is iffy, but at worst a cinch for the pen.  So I'll give him .5 for the starter and .5 for the pen.   Rodon is .5 at best.  Sum total, they have 2.75 starters and 4.5 relievers.  That's 2.25 starters short and 3.5 relievers short.  Add 5 pitchers for depth and you need 10.75 more pitchers.  You cannot go in there with 5 and 8 and think you can contend.  Injuries happen and performance below expectations happen.

So who do they have?  Kopech, Dunning all good possibilities...who else?

They are short on pitchers and a TOR starter is the least of the problems.  Sox have a costly history on being short pitching - they probably had top 3 overall talent in the majors from 2001-2004 and they were always a pitcher or 3 short.

 I'm a 3 year guy; I think a competent FO can rebuild in 3 years.  And this team had a jumpstart with Sale et al to trade.  Well this is year 3, which means contend in year 4.  But they simply aren't ready.   If they do it now, they'll look like the 2015 White Sox. They need to build for another year. And that's why I hated taking a pass on this trading season. 

Edited August 4, 2019 by GreenSox

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

The Sox have 1/2 a bullpen:  Colome, Marshall, Bummer, Fry.  I like all of those guys.  But none are great.  The rest of the bullpen is not major league quality; yes 1 or 2 may improve, but really bad right now.  That's 4 short.
The starting staff:  Giolito is 1.  Cease is a "probably" - I'll rate him as a .75.  I still think Lopez is iffy, but at worst a cinch for the pen.  So I'll give him .5 for the starter and .5 for the pen.   Rodon is .5 at best.  Sum total, they have 2.75 starters and 4.5 relievers.  That's 2.25 starters short and 3.5 relievers short.  Add 5 pitchers for depth and you need 10.75 more pitchers.  You cannot go in there with 5 and 8 and think you can contend.  Injuries happen and performance below expectations happen.

So who do they have?  Kopech, Dunning all good possibilities...who else?

They are short on pitchers and a TOR starter is the least of the problems.

 I'm a 3 year guy; I think a competent FO can rebuild in 3 years.  And this team had a jumpstart with Sale et al to trade.  Well this is year 3, which means contend in year 4.  But they simply aren't ready.   If they do it now, they'll look like the 2015 White Sox. They need to build for another year. And that's why I hated taking a pass on this trading season. 

Dude, those guys don't take up .5 of a roster spot so you're going about it horribly. They're going to have 12 or 13 pitchers. You have 5 relievers and  4starters already. Herrera also takes up a spot(unfortunately) so really you have the following in the rotation next year: 

Giolito

Cease 

Kopech 

Lopez 

 

And the following in the bullpen:

Colome 

Bummer

Fry 

Herrera 

Marshall 

(Maybe Fulmer) 

 

 

That's 9 pitchers. They only have 3-4 spots they have to fill. 

Edited August 4, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Chicago White Sox]

9 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Dude, those guys don't take up .5 of a roster spot so you're going about it horribly. They're going to have 12 or 13 pitchers. You have 4 relievers and 5 starters already. Herrera also takes up a spot(unfortunately) so really you have the following in the rotation next year: 

Giolito

Cease 

Kopech 

Lopez 

 

And the following in the bullpen:

Colome 

Bummer

Fry 

Herrera 

Marshall 

 

 

That's 9 pitchers. They only have 3-4 spots they have to fill. 

Yup, one high-end starter and one high-end RH reliever is what we need plus a depth starter or swing-man.  After that, we’ll rely on some of the young arms such Hamilton, Schryver, Ruiz, Fulmer, etc. to step up and/or serve as bullpen depth.  Wouldn’t be surprised if they add a few veteran arms for Charlotte’s pen, but saying we’re 10 short on arms is fucking ridiculous.

[caulfield12]

46 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

The Sox have 1/2 a bullpen:  Colome, Marshall, Bummer, Fry.  I like all of those guys.  But none are great.  The rest of the bullpen is not major league quality; yes 1 or 2 may improve, but really bad right now.  That's 4 short.
The starting staff:  Giolito is 1.  Cease is a "probably" - I'll rate him as a .75.  I still think Lopez is iffy, but at worst a cinch for the pen.  So I'll give him .5 for the starter and .5 for the pen.   Rodon is .5 at best.  Sum total, they have 2.75 starters and 4.5 relievers.  That's 2.25 starters short and 3.5 relievers short.  Add 5 pitchers for depth and you need 10.75 more pitchers.  You cannot go in there with 5 and 8 and think you can contend.  Injuries happen and performance below expectations happen.

So who do they have?  Kopech, Dunning all good possibilities...who else?

They are short on pitchers and a TOR starter is the least of the problems.  Sox have a costly history on being short pitching - they probably had top 3 overall talent in the majors from 2001-2004 and they were always a pitcher or 3 short.

 I'm a 3 year guy; I think a competent FO can rebuild in 3 years.  And this team had a jumpstart with Sale et al to trade.  Well this is year 3, which means contend in year 4.  But they simply aren't ready.   If they do it now, they'll look like the 2015 White Sox. They need to build for another year. And that's why I hated taking a pass on this trading season. 

Well...that’s obvious, they traded Kip Wells, Fogg and Lowe away and Ritchie couldn’t stay healthy.

Didn't add Kenny Rogers in 2003, saved money but had no fifth.

Wright, Parque, Baldwin, Rauch, Ginter, West, Malone, Honel, Barcelo, Stumm, Beirne, Myette, Biddle all broke down or were traded/underperformed.

Which is why it’s completely laughable when people say adding a #1/2 and #4 is crazy/insane/idiotic.

Edited August 4, 2019 by caulfield12

[GreenSox]

27 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Which is why it’s completely laughable when people say adding a #1/2 and #4 is crazy/insane/idiotic.

It's crazy because a)they need far more than that and b) Hahn's  record at finding pitchers via FA or trade is atrocious. 

[Jack Parkman]

47 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Yup, one high-end starter and one high-end RH reliever is what we need plus a depth starter or swing-man.  After that, we’ll rely on some of the young arms such Hamilton, Schryver, Ruiz, Fulmer, etc. to step up and/or serve as bullpen depth.  Wouldn’t be surprised if they add a few veteran arms for Charlotte’s pen, but saying we’re 10 short on arms is fucking ridiculous.

Fulmer's out of options. He's reinvented himself and I'd like to give him a shot. I'm a little pissed he got hurt Friday evening. 

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

It's crazy because a)they need far more than that and b) Hahn's  record at finding pitchers via FA or trade is atrocious. 

Lolololol dude. 

They need one high end SP, a couple guys for Charlotte who can fill in in the event of injury, a High leverage RHP for the pen, and a long reliever. 

Edited August 4, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

18 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Lolololol dude. 

They need one high end SP, a couple guys for Charlotte who can fill in in the event of injury, a High leverage RHP for the pen, and a long reliever. 

After all, the cumulative pitching fWAR is higher than the position player side, somehow...

 

[Jack Parkman]

10 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

After all, the cumulative pitching fWAR is higher than the position player side, somehow...

 

Yep. They need some bats too. 

[GermanSoxFan]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yep. They need some bats too. 

Three to be exact.. Finding a decent 1B will be difficult though, so I hope Abreu turns it around. Not holding my breath though.

[caulfield12]

#	Name	Batting	Base Running	Fielding	Positional	Offense	Defense	League	Replacement	RAR	WAR	Dollars
12   Page size:

45 items in 2 pages   36 Charlie Tilson -8.7 3.1 -0.6 -1.1 -5.6 -1.7 0.6 4.9 -1.8 -0.2 ($1.4) 37 Seby Zavala -2.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 -2.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 -1.8 -0.2 ($1.4) 38 Zack Collins -3.2 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 -3.4 -0.5 0.1 1.0 -2.8 -0.3 ($2.2) 39 Ryan Cordell -8.5 -0.6 -0.5 -1.7 -9.1 -2.3 0.8 6.2 -4.4 -0.4 ($3.4) 40 Nicky Delmonico -4.5 -0.3 -2.1 -0.7 -4.8 -2.8 0.3 2.1 -5.2 -0.5 ($4.0) 41 A.J. Reed -5.7 0.0   -1.3 -5.7 -1.3 0.2 1.5 -5.3 -0.5 ($4.1) 42 Jose Rondon -10.4 -1.2 -0.4 0.1 -11.6 -0.3 0.6 4.9 -6.4 -0.6 ($5.0) 43 Welington Castillo -9.4 -0.8 -6.3 1.3 -10.2 -5.0 0.6 5.0 -9.6 -0.9 ($7.4) 44 Daniel Palka -9.4 0.2 -3.0 -0.8 -9.2 -3.8 0.2 1.6 -11.2 -1.1 ($8.7) 45 Yonder Alonso -14.6 -1.6 -0.3 -5.9 -16.3 -6.2 1.0 7.9 -13.6 -1.3 ($10.6)   What's absolutely insane is that Goins has been the FIFTH most valuable player by fWAR, with Leury fourth.  Or that Jay and Engel have come closer to earning their money than Jimenez ($6 million including his signing bonus) and Abreu. Alonso and Castillo (essentially chosen over Narvaez) worth -$18 MILLION to the team...almost reversing by 180 degrees the actual money spent on them.  At least if Machado came onboard, you could ignore the $36 million total swing in lost value to the organization. Then you have the phenomenon of Jimenez and Abreu being worth very little in advanced terms, despite their traditional HR and RBI numbers. EIGHT players ranked 36th-45th are pretty much an appropriate indictment of our scouting department, and the "supplemental" pieces that were supposed to fill out the roster (other than Collins, who was once expected to be a core piece).
1	Yoan Moncada	18.0	3.5	2.6	1.4	21.5	4.0	1.6	12.9	39.9	3.9	$31.0
2	James McCann	2.9	0.5	-2.6	4.4	3.4	1.8	1.2	10.1	16.5	1.6	$12.8
3	Tim Anderson	5.5	1.0	-4.4	3.3	6.5	-1.1	1.2	9.5	16.1	1.6	$12.5
4	Leury Garcia	-5.4	2.9	2.6	0.5	-2.4	3.1	1.7	13.6	16.0	1.6	$12.4
5	Ryan Goins	2.2	0.0		0.5	2.2	0.5	0.2	1.8	4.7	0.5	$3.6
6	Yolmer Sanchez	-13.1	1.4	1.4	1.4	-11.8	2.8	1.4	11.2	3.6	0.4	$2.8
7	Jose Abreu	-0.5	-3.2	-0.1	-8.9	-3.8	-9.1	1.8	14.5	3.4	0.3	$2.7
8	Eloy Jimenez	-1.7	0.9	-2.8	-3.3	-0.9	-6.1	1.1	9.2	3.3	0.3	$2.6
9	Jon Jay	0.8	0.1	-1.2	-1.4	0.9	-2.6	0.4	3.6	2.3	0.2	$1.8
10	Adam Engel	-3.6	0.8	0.0	0.4	-2.7	0.4	0.4	3.3	1.3	0.1	$1.0

Edited August 4, 2019 by caulfield12

[GreenSox]

21 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

Lolololol dude. 

They need one high end SP, a couple guys for Charlotte who can fill in in the event of injury, a High leverage RHP for the pen, and a long reliever. 

Not if the Sox intend on contending. Covey pitches on a contending team?  Good one.

 Not having injuries is the exception, not the rule.  They have 2 top 1/2 of the pen pitchers:  Colome and Bummer.  Marshall and Fry are good, but bottom guys on a contending team.

The only sure rotation piece is Giolito. Cease is a likely.  Rodon is a maybe; Lopez is a maybe, but higher than Rodon.
Look at the depth on these contending teams.  Sox need to match it, or at least approach it, or they are howling at the moon.   And we've seen that before:   Rick Hahn declared that the team was ready to win in 2014 when they weren't even close.  Then he proceeded to set the team back 5 years by "going for it" 2014-16.

 

A bad hitter doesn't kill you, especially if he can defend.  A bad pitcher can destroy you.

Edited August 5, 2019 by GreenSox

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, GreenSox said:

Not if the Sox intend on contending. Covey pitches on a contending team?  Good one.

 Not having injuries is the exception, not the rule.  They have 2 top 1/2 of the pen pitchers:  Colome and Bummer.  Marshall and Fry are good, but bottom guys on a contending team.

The only sure rotation piece is Giolito. Cease is a likely.  Rodon is a maybe; Lopez is a maybe, but higher than Rodon.
I've seen this before.  Rick Hahn declared that the team was ready to win in 2014 when they weren't even close.  Then he proceeded to set the team back 5 years by putting on a clownshow 2014-16.

I'm thinking of bringing Nova or someone like him with a rubber arm as a 6th starter. Did you forget about Kopech? 

Giolito, Kopech, Cease and Lopez are 4. They'll have Dunning in the minors and Rodon coming back after the ASB. Bringing Nova or someone like him along with signing Strasburg, Wheeler or Bumgarner should complete the rotation and it would make them 7 deep in the spring and 8 deep when Rodon returns. Injuries killed them this year. They're not as far away as you think. Bringing in another veteran like they did with Santana isn't a bad idea either if they need emergency starts from the Charlotte rotation. 

[BackDoorBreach]

They need 2 starters since we have Gio, Cease, Kopech, Lopez all slotted next year and Kopech/Cease on innings limits.  I'd think Rodon slots back in after he returns and the innings have been met.

2-3 pen arms.

Right fielder

And a 1B/DH.

Thats about 7-8 players they are going to have to sign.  

[mqr]

Just now, BackDoorBreach said:

They need 2 starters since we have Gio, Cease, Kopech, Lopez all slotted next year and Kopech/Cease on innings limits.  I'd think Rodon slots back in after he returns and the innings have been met.

2-3 pen arms.

Right fielder

And a 1B/DH.

Thats about 7-8 players they are going to have to sign.  

Cease isn't going to be on a limit next year. 

[GreenSox]

16 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I'm thinking of bringing Nova or someone like him with a rubber arm as a 6th starter. Did you forget about Kopech? 

Giolito, Kopech, Cease and Lopez are 4. They'll have Dunning in the minors and Rodon coming back after the ASB. Bringing Nova or someone like him along with signing Strasburg, Wheeler or Bumgarner should complete the rotation and it would make them 7 deep in the spring and 8 deep when Rodon returns. Injuries killed them this year. They're not as far away as you think. Bringing in another veteran like they did with Santana isn't a bad idea either if they need emergency starts from the Charlotte rotation. 

Okay - a Nova type is one, but they really need someone a level better than Nova.  Bring in someone like Santana?  Fine, but Hahn's hit rate is about 25% (lower really) on low end starters, so you better bring in 3 to be sure.

Kopech?  You can't count on Kopech.  He may be good, me may not be.  Fine, sign Bumgarner.  Then it's a roll of he dice with Kopech, Rodon and Lopez to fill 2 spots.  And there better not be injuries or else you get Covey or Hahn's fav Don Roach.

And then there's the pen.  They really have no high leverage/strikeout guys.  They need at least 2.  That will give a 6 man pen, which I guess you can live with (if you get no injuries).  But they still have to upgrade from the Osichs at he back of the pen.

This needs another year of simmering.  But I'm confident in the position players and hopefully the FO will make the right decisions.

Edited August 5, 2019 by GreenSox

[Jack Parkman]

5 hours ago, GreenSox said:

Okay - a Nova type is one, but they really need someone a level better than Nova.  Bring in someone like Santana?  Fine, but Hahn's hit rate is about 25% (lower really) on low end starters, so you better bring in 3 to be sure.

Kopech?  You can't count on Kopech.  He may be good, me may not be.  Fine, sign Bumgarner.  Then it's a roll of he dice with Kopech, Rodon and Lopez to fill 2 spots.  And there better not be injuries or else you get Covey or Hahn's fav Don Roach.

And then there's the pen.  They really have no high leverage/strikeout guys.  They need at least 2.  That will give a 6 man pen, which I guess you can live with (if you get no injuries).  But they still have to upgrade from the Osichs at he back of the pen.

This needs another year of simmering.  But I'm confident in the position players and hopefully the FO will make the right decisions.

Dunning should be MLB ready by July unless he completely loses his command after TJS. It happens to some. I understand why you say we can't count on them but Giolito/Cease/Bumgarner/Lopez/Kopech and Nova as the long man should be enough to get by. 

That rotation has the potential to be absolutely awesome. 

Edited August 6, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[BackDoorBreach]

I'd be curious to see what they do with Dunning next year.  I assume they will fast track him back to AA after a few starts in A ball.  I don't think we see him in a Sox Uniform next year though, maybe late August if he's doing well/not shutdown.

[caulfield12]

Just now, BackDoorBreach said:

I'd be curious to see what they do with Dunning next year.  I assume they will fast track him back to AA after a few starts in A ball.  I don't think we see him in a Sox Uniform next year though, maybe late August if he's doing well/not shutdown.

I don’t even think he’ll be in Winston-Salem...because they need to assess as quickly as possible whether he’s going to be a contributor at the major league level in the second half or not.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

I don’t even think he’ll be in Winston-Salem...because they need to assess as quickly as possible whether he’s going to be a contributor at the major league level in the second half or not.

Yeah Dunning will be 25 in December. He's pretty old for a prospect. 

[steveno89]

25 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yeah Dunning will be 25 in December. He's pretty old for a prospect. 

A guy like Zack Wheeler could be a really nice free agent addition. He's going to get a multi year deal for solid money, but it will be far less than Cole

Dunning cannot be relied upon to hold down a rotation spot in 2020. Best case is he's available second half of the season.

Cole is a pipedream that I just do not see happening. Spotrac's market value estimation for Cole is a 6yr/$167 million contract worth nearly $28 million per, a level I do not see the Sox going to.