Hahn expects aggressive offseason

[kitekrazy]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Negative=realistic

I would love to believe that Eloy Jimenez is going to have Rusty Kuntz as his personal outfield coach next season, start throwing the ball in on throws from the outfield at about 20+ MPH faster and evolve into a 4+ player, but I haven't seen any evidence of that.    Tonight, he loped into the corner for a ball he should have been more aggressive with, wasn't aware of the fact that the runner was one of the fastest in baseball (Jacoby Jones)...we need more focus and concentration out of all our younger core players if they're going to take that next step in 2020 and beyond.  You simply can't give up triples on ground balls hit down the LF line.

As long as we continue to use fWAR as our MAIN measurement of a team's growth, then Eloy will always be dinged and Tim Anderson will too for his lack of walks and inconsistent/erratic defensive play.

I don't know what else can be said.   Abreu's a totally different issue, he is what he is, and that's not going to change dramatically at age 31-33.

  I could not believe how long that took.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure it does, it tells us exactly how far that we still have to go to construct a competitive roster for 2020.

How does it tell us that?  All I see from this random sidebar is these three guys are proof that young players can get better and injured guys can get healthy in a blink of the eye.  So next year, we could see Eloy & Cease take massive leaps forward and Kopech be an impact player right out of the gate.

And in terms of roster construction, we should have nine former top 50 overall prospects on our roster by mid April next year, all of whom will be 26 years of age or younger.  Six of these guys were top 10 or 20 prospects to boot.  Those guys represent the vast majority of our future core.  Will we have to supplement via trade and free agency?  Of course we will, but when you’re sitting on ~$45M in payroll commitments (most of which expire after the 2020 season), you should be able to plug a lot of holes in one offseason.  A competent GM would be able to take the sum of our parts and create a contender for 2020 in a really weak division.  I have zero doubts that Hahn will be aggressive this offseason, but whether he adds the right pieces remains to be seen.

[SCCWS]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How does it tell us that?  All I see from this random sidebar is these three guys are proof that young players can get better and injured guys can get healthy in a blink of the eye.  So next year, we could see Eloy & Cease take massive leaps forward and Kopech be an impact player right out of the gate.

And in terms of roster construction, we should have nine former top 50 overall prospects on our roster by mid April next year, all of whom will be 26 years of age or younger.  Six of these guys were top 10 or 20 prospects to boot.  Those guys represent the vast majority of our future core.  Will we have to supplement via trade and free agency?  Of course we will, but when you’re sitting on ~$45M in payroll commitments (most of which expire after the 2020 season), you should be able to plug a lot of holes in one offseason.  A competent GM would be able to take the sum of our parts and create a contender for 2020 in a really weak division.  I have zero doubts that Hahn will be aggressive this offseason, but whether he adds the right pieces remains to be seen.

I don't want to speak for Caulfield , but he raises an excellent point. While we wait for more influx of talent, we need to see the staff keep developing Eloy, Anderson and Yoan as well as Gio, Cease and Lopez. . I don't get to see a lot of White Sox games but as a daily reader of this board, the complaints about Eloy's defense are frequent.  Maybe Hahn realizes LF is more of a wish and it does works with the present status of the rebuild.  I think it will be interesting to see where Eloy plays next spring. 

I hope Hahn  makes some changes to this managerial staff for 2020.   Next year, hopefully, is the turning point  of the rebuild where we should at least have a WC goal. Maybe a little aggressive, but the Central is pretty blah so we should at least take advantage of that part of the schedule. I hope Hahn is aggressive w the FA market and the make-up of the coaching staff. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How does it tell us that?  All I see from this random sidebar is these three guys are proof that young players can get better and injured guys can get healthy in a blink of the eye.  So next year, we could see Eloy & Cease take massive leaps forward and Kopech be an impact player right out of the gate.

And in terms of roster construction, we should have nine former top 50 overall prospects on our roster by mid April next year, all of whom will be 26 years of age or younger.  Six of these guys were top 10 or 20 prospects to boot.  Those guys represent the vast majority of our future core.  Will we have to supplement via trade and free agency?  Of course we will, but when you’re sitting on ~$45M in payroll commitments (most of which expire after the 2020 season), you should be able to plug a lot of holes in one offseason.  A competent GM would be able to take the sum of our parts and create a contender for 2020 in a really weak division.  I have zero doubts that Hahn will be aggressive this offseason, but whether he adds the right pieces remains to be seen.

What I just don’t get is why we put so much credence in modern analytics...but then so many readily accept we are going to overpay someone like Jose Abreu to play a position he’s not even good at...which directly leads to more errors from Anderson and Moncada?

Somehow we have to believe Anderson will be a 3+ player and Jimenez a 4+ player.

Or that Moncada will stop getting hurt when the games start to really mean something.

Can you think of any other team in baseball where you can add the players surrendered in just two trades and those players have a higher current season value than the ENTIRE fWAR value of the team they were traded from/by?

[caulfield12]

Just now, SCCWS said:

I don't want to speak for Caulfield , but he raises an excellent point. While we wait for more influx of talent, we need to see the staff keep developing Eloy, Anderson and Yoan as well as Gio, Cease and Lopez. . I don't get to see a lot of White Sox games but as a daily reader of this board, the complaints about Eloy's defense are frequent.  Maybe Hahn realizes LF is more of a wish and it does works with the present status of the rebuild.  I think it will be interesting to see where Eloy plays next spring. 

I hope Hahn  makes some changes to this managerial staff for 2020.   Next year, hopefully, is the turning point  of the rebuild where we should at least have a WC goal. Maybe a little aggressive, but the Central is pretty blah so we should at least take advantage of that part of the schedule. I hope Hahn is aggressive w the FA market and the make-up of the coaching staff. 

This goes back to the Jack Parkman point about the “limited” future value of Madrigal and Vaughn, although I’m a huge believer in Nick.

The hardest one is to figure out how Don Cooper is going to get Michael Kopech to somehow stop having the mentality of throwing the ball through a brick wall...and not get hurt again, when it seems so many are tuning out our coaching staff and looking for solutions outside of the organization?

If we turned over this current team to the Astros to run, I would have a lot more faith on the coaching, scouting/ evaluation and development side.

[Moan4Yoan]

“We were happy to be at the table with Gerrit and we made what we thought was a competitive offer, with a chance to earn more money than the guaranteed offers others teams made, but ultimately we fell short of our plan.  We will continue to be aggressive with our targets in free agency and the trade market, as well as looking to lock up our own core long-term.  The money will be spent.”

[caulfield12]

59 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

“We were happy to be at the table with Gerrit and we made what we thought was a competitive offer, with a chance to earn more money than the guaranteed offers others teams made, but ultimately we fell short of our plan.  We will continue to be aggressive with our targets in free agency and the trade market, as well as looking to lock up our own core long-term.  The money will be spent.”

Copy and paste from actual quote on Machado?  Definitely not KW, has to be Hahn.

[ptatc]

10 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Sure it does, it tells us exactly how far that we still have to go to construct a competitive roster for 2020.

All one has to do is look at these statistics from playoff teams over the past seasons...and compare them with where we stand.  It's not just a matter of aggressiveness in Free Agency, it's also a matter of working harder than our coaching staff has ever worked before to bring out the best in Moncada, Anderson and Jimenez.

The organization has to figure out how to keep everyone on the field as well.

Real self-reflection and appropriate changes in the coaching staff.

Right now, nothing else matters. 

We could make the best set of moves in Hahn's career and still not be a playoff team unless we fix internal/endemic problems first.

The coaching staff really doesn't matter that much. It's the talent on the field that is the overwhelming variable in winning. The Royals won with Ned Yost. That's all you really need to know.

As far as the rest of it is concerned, the self reflection is important but again, doesnt really pertain to how aggressive  Hahn will be. It identifies needs but as we saw last off season, what they need and IF they will be aggressive are two independent variables. One does not beget the other.

Edited August 6, 2019 by ptatc

[mqr]

9 minutes ago, ptatc said:

The coaching staff really doesn't matter that much. It's the talent on the field that is the overwhelming variable in winning. The Royals won with Ned Yost. That's all you really need to know.

As far as the rest of it is concerned, the self reflection is important but again, doesnt really pertain to how aggressive  Hahn will be. It identifies needs but as we saw last off season, what they need and IF they will be aggressive are two independent variables. One does not beget the other.

The Royals almost won TWICE with Ned Yost

[ChiSox59]

I feel like there are more people who post here frequently that are hoping for this organization to fail than there are people who generally want them to take the next step.  Kind of sad.  

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, caulfield12 said:

How many Cubs’ fans thought Theo Epstein would fail when they brought him onboard in 2012?

Half?  

This was the “boy wonder”...best GM in the world at that time, architect of three World Series teams.  Then they brought in one of the most respected managers in the game and kicked the guy we’re supposed to put our faith in to the curb.

White Sox fans have been conditioned for decade to expect disappointment.

We read all offseason from one poster that we might even sign both Machado and Harper...this season, he’s struggling to come up with an argument for how we sign just one in Cole.

Frankly, the worst thing in the world is not caring much if your favorite team wins or loses when every game in August and September (see 2008 or even 2012) used to feel like a battle between life and death, or good vs. evil.

Look at the crowds in Detroit.

They had an amazing run over seven years...got to the World Series twice, watched their free-spending owner die and now they’re forced to watch Verlander on the Astros or Castellanos on the Cubs while they’re stuck paying an out-of-shape and “compromised” (Stone’s exact phrase) Miguel Cabrera $130 million for the next four years.

The only reason not to jump off the roof is Mize and the #1 pick next June.

Hope is important...but it can’t sustain baseball fans indefinitely in this era of what have you done for me lately.

 

I don't give two fucks about the cubs, or half the shit you ramble on and on and on about on a White Sox message board that doesn't have a damn thing to do with the topic.  

[Pal]

Don't know if anyone listens to McNeil and Parkins, but Parkins made an interesting comment today. He's a Cubs guy and normally fairly negative about the Sox, but said there will be real expectations for the team after this offseason and they will have given out the biggest free agent contract in franchise history. Seemed confident in what he was saying. Not sure it means anything, maybe has inside insight on plans.

[ron883]

Just now, Pal said:

Don't know if anyone listens to McNeil and Parkins, but Parkins made an interesting comment today. He's a Cubs guy and normally fairly negative about the Sox, but said there will be real expectations for the team after this offseason and they will have given out the biggest free agent contract in franchise history. Seemed confident in what he was saying. Not sure it means anything, maybe has inside insight on plans.

He is just making an educated guess most likely. The biggest FA contract is 68m to Abreu if I'm not mistaken. It is embarrassing they have never eclipsed that and it will be extremely embarrassing if they don't eclipse it this offseason. A pitcher will get signed by the team for over 68m total. 

[greg775]

14 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I feel like there are more people who post here frequently that are hoping for this organization to fail than there are people who generally want them to take the next step.  Kind of sad.  

I'd just as soon they not give a zillion dollar contract to a pitcher. I know I want Jerry to spend so much money it hurts his wallet, but I'm kind of against the 300-500 million dollar deals I'd rather sign some "very good" starters for say 60 million over 5 years. Or sluggers for 80 million over 5 years. I just feel like the minute we give that kind of money to a starter he'll turn into the bad version of Humber. or Covey.

 

[ron883]

10 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I'd just as soon they not give a zillion dollar contract to a pitcher. I know I want Jerry to spend so much money it hurts his wallet, but I'm kind of against the 300-500 million dollar deals I'd rather sign some "very good" starters for say 60 million over 5 years. Or sluggers for 80 million over 5 years. I just feel like the minute we give that kind of money to a starter he'll turn into the bad version of Humber. or Covey.

 

Example of a very good pitcher who got a similar contract to what you described, just for context? 

[caulfield12]

6 hours ago, ron883 said:

He is just making an educated guess most likely. The biggest FA contract is 68m to Abreu if I'm not mistaken. It is embarrassing they have never eclipsed that and it will be extremely embarrassing if they don't eclipse it this offseason. A pitcher will get signed by the team for over 68m total. 

The only pitcher sure to get over that is Cole, and Strasburg (if available.)

Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ryu, Odorizzi, etc., should all be in that $45-70 million range, depending on years given.

[Moan4Yoan]

22 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

I feel like there are more people who post here frequently that are hoping for this organization to fail than there are people who generally want them to take the next step.  Kind of sad.  

Everyone hopes we sign some top free agents this offseason.  But like Ron pointed out, Abreu’s $68 million is the largest contract ever signed by the Sox and they haven’t historically doled out big long-term contracts to free agent starting pitchers so fans have every reason to be skeptical.  If the Sox don’t spend big this offseason, they never will.  At least we know this going into the offseason.  This offseason will be the true and final test.  If it doesn’t happen, we get to resort to praying for new ownership.

Edited August 7, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Everyone hopes we sign some top free agents this offseason.  But like Ron pointed out, Abreu’s $68 million is the largest contract ever signed by the Sox and they haven’t historically doled out big long-term contracts to free agent starting pitchers so fans have every reason to be skeptical.  If the Sox don’t spend big this offseason, they never will.  At least we know this going into the offseason.  This offseason will be the true and final test.  If it doesn’t happen, we get to resort to praying for new ownership.

They'll get one more year from Reinsdorf...the 2020-21 cycle.

The problem is that a lot of their buying opportunities have disappeared into thin air with so many under 25-26 players signing long-term contract extensions.   This upcoming offseason looked entirely different 6-8 months ago.  Now it's going to be a case where the agents/players have a huge advantage, at least for the premium players on the market.  The main opportunities will be sorting through those veterans in their 30's and finding the ones that still have life (like a Nelson Cruz or Cole Hamels).

And even then there's the downside risk...Lester, for example, has been great (most of the time) for the Cubs, and has certainly been worth every penny...but you can start to see him REALLY falling off now.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Everyone hopes we sign some top free agents this offseason.  But like Ron pointed out, Abreu’s $68 million is the largest contract ever signed by the Sox and they haven’t historically doled out big long-term contracts to free agent starting pitchers so fans have every reason to be skeptical.  If the Sox don’t spend big this offseason, they never will.  At least we know this going into the offseason.  This offseason will be the true and final test.  If it doesn’t happen, we get to resort to praying for new ownership.

Looks like we finally agree about something ?

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

And even then there's the downside risk...Lester, for example, has been great (most of the time) for the Cubs, and has certainly been worth every penny...but you can start to see him REALLY falling off now.

 

I will let the Cubs out of that contract if they agree to retroactively forfeit the 2016 season. Deal?

When you sign players to a multi-year deal, the length of the deal generally helps the team, not hurts them...in the sense that the team spreads payroll out over a longer term. What you really want is a guy who can help you win the next 3-4 years, and if you are paying a guy when they fall off...it doesn't matter because you won.

[greg775]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

if you are paying a guy when they fall off...it doesn't matter because you won.

I'm not sure that's a good strategy either. It's definitely against good business practices to figure a guy might be productive four years of the 7 year deal and reek the rest. Also you are assuming he will guarantee one or two WS titles. It'd be nice if the Sox could have an owner and front office that uses the fact the rest of the division is small market and finds a way to dominate and not just have a 2-3 year window of potential excellence.

Edited August 7, 2019 by greg775

[BackDoorBreach]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

They'll get one more year from Reinsdorf...the 2020-21 cycle.

The problem is that a lot of their buying opportunities have disappeared into thin air with so many under 25-26 players signing long-term contract extensions.   This upcoming offseason looked entirely different 6-8 months ago.  Now it's going to be a case where the agents/players have a huge advantage, at least for the premium players on the market.  The main opportunities will be sorting through those veterans in their 30's and finding the ones that still have life (like a Nelson Cruz or Cole Hamels).

And even then there's the downside risk...Lester, for example, has been great (most of the time) for the Cubs, and has certainly been worth every penny...but you can start to see him REALLY falling off now.

 

If they sign guys like Hamels or Cruz this whole rebuild was a joke, despite the success they have had this year.

 

They should be signing top youngish talent, not guys playing year to year until they completely fall off due to age.

[caulfield12]

41 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

If they sign guys like Hamels or Cruz this whole rebuild was a joke, despite the success they have had this year.

 

They should be signing top youngish talent, not guys playing year to year until they completely fall off due to age.

And yet most Minnesota fans or Red Sox fans the second to last time they won would be elated with their veteran free agent additions...just nearly impossible to get hits across the board like they both did.

[BackDoorBreach]

35 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

And yet most Minnesota fans or Red Sox fans the second to last time they won would be elated with their veteran free agent additions...just nearly impossible to get hits across the board like they both did.

I agree, MN got pretty lucky with a lot of the scrap heap players they picked up.  You can't rely on those types of signings to work out like they have for them. I just think the Sox are in a much better place with the core being so young and a ton of financial flexibility to not go after guys like that.  There is no reason they shouldn't be signing premium free agents over the next couple off seasons.