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A fair and balanced soliloquy about Jose Abreu, by ron


ron883

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12 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Abreu's defense may stink, but we're used to it at least. Why do people think Davidson will be a better defender at first than Jose? There's absolutely no reason to think that.

You think a shortstop can become a catcher out of nowhere but a 3rd baseman becoming better than awful at 1st is unfathomable to you? You are off your freaking rocker man

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12 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

You think a shortstop can become a catcher out of nowhere but a 3rd baseman becoming better than awful at 1st is unfathomable to you? You are off your freaking rocker man

I know, right? It's almost as bad as if he'd called out an elite hitter for a poor start three years in a row, only to have that elite hitter prove him wrong each time.

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2 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

I know, right? It's almost as bad as if he'd called out an elite hitter for a poor start three years in a row, only to have that elite hitter prove him wrong each time.

10th best wRC+ in 2015 and 14th best in 2016 amongst 1st basemen. "Elite". Lol. You throw that definition lightly. You must be the leader of the soxtalk cult of Abreu

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9 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

10th best wRC+ in 2015 and 14th best in 2016 amongst 1st basemen. "Elite". Lol. You throw that definition lightly. You must be the leader of the soxtalk cult of Abreu

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

 

I think your numbers are off a tad for 16.  According to Fangraphs, sorting by WRC+ amongst qualified hitters, Jose has ranked 10th, 11th, 4th, and 3rd (currently tied with Votto) from '15-'18.  If you combined all the totals from the same time period, sorting by only WRC+, Jose checks in at 8th in all of baseball out of qualified 1B.  We all know you have some sort of hatred towards Jose for whatever reason, but if you're going to point out his "DFA worthy" seasons you should probably acknowledge his top of the 1B class seasons he's been having the last couple of seasons.

Edited by Sleepy Harold
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19 minutes ago, elrockinMT said:

Abreu is a decent 1Bman who works hard at getting better. A player makes an error and some folks are ready to cut his hands off 

Spot on. Thank you for the honest assessment. Decent player, works hard all the time to get better. By no means elite. Sorry to the hysterical fans like Dam. 

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14 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Spot on. Thank you for the honest assessment. Decent player, works hard all the time to get better. By no means elite. Sorry to the hysterical fans like Dam. 

Top 10 and Top 5 at the position are usually considered elite (see the post directly above the one quoted above debunking your false information), but you're right, it's all a conspiracy led by me, and I'm apparently the leader of the Cult of Jose Abreu. How did you put all the pieces together, Ron?

Edited by Dam8610
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His defense isn't good but he has an .883 career OPS with a .300 average and like 30 bombs per year. overall he is definitely one of the better first basemen and there is no guarantee that any of the prospects who replace him will be nearly as good with the bat, that is basically a 70 bat (albeit probably plays more like a 65 due to the low walk rates) and 65 power, which not many pospects project for.

 

I still see the value in trading him as he is a FA in 2020 and might start to decline soon at age 31. But only do it for a real return, if you only get a 45 and a 40 prospect you  can just as well keep him as a buddy for moncada and robert and get the comp pick in 2020.

 

but if someone offers you a top100 prospect and a filler I would probably do it and trade him because a comp pick only projects as a 40 or so on average and a top100 is clearly better than that, especially if you get that 40 as a secondary guy too.

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First Base is extremely tough to play really well, and easy to play so so.  Abreu is a cut above so so, but barely.  Still, he hustles, does his best, and he hits.  Even Todd Helton screwed up a couple times a year.

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10 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

Spot on. Thank you for the honest assessment. Decent player, works hard all the time to get better. By no means elite. Sorry to the hysterical fans like Dam. 

Not elite? You are going to be disappointed when most of our prospects don't produce as much as Abreu.

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25 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Not elite? You are going to be disappointed when most of our prospects don't produce as much as Abreu.

Abreu is not an elite 1st baseman.  I personally believe he's better than many think, but he's probably realistically a so-so defensive player.  Offensively, he's one of the most consistent hitters in the league.  He may never be in the running for home run leader or highest BA, but he's going to hit .300, 25-30 HRs, and 90-100 RBIs.  Still doesn't make him elite.

And why do you think most of the prospects won't produce?  I know you hate the rebuild, even though you refuse to understand it.  But there are some great prospects that have a real chance to be very good...maybe even elite.

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On 6/8/2018 at 4:54 PM, greg775 said:

Not elite? You are going to be disappointed when most of our prospects don't produce as much as Abreu.

I agree. I would be open to trade him for a good package due to his age and contract situation but don't assume that every prospect just because it is on a top100 hits better than he does because the vast majority of top prospects does not. In fact I would be thrilled if any sox top prospect including eloy would hit like abreu in their prime.

 

abreu had one not so good season but he still produced a 120 wRC+ that year. in his career he had a 138 wRC+ which ranks 7th among 1Bs during that time. if you look at the last 3 years (actually 2.5) he also is 7th at a 130 wRC+ (and pretty close to 4th-6th).

 

that is not frank thomas level of course but definitely elite. now his defense is bad but he still is 7th in WAR since 2016 and 6th since 2014.

 

Sox fans should be thrilled if the next sox 1B is as good as he is. that doesn't mean it can't happen but it is not guaranteed or even likely by any stretch.

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On 6/8/2018 at 5:33 PM, hogan873 said:

Abreu is not an elite 1st baseman.  I personally believe he's better than many think, but he's probably realistically a so-so defensive player.  Offensively, he's one of the most consistent hitters in the league.  He may never be in the running for home run leader or highest BA, but he's going to hit .300, 25-30 HRs, and 90-100 RBIs.  Still doesn't make him elite.

And why do you think most of the prospects won't produce?  I know you hate the rebuild, even though you refuse to understand it.  But there are some great prospects that have a real chance to be very good...maybe even elite.

who said they won't produce? it is just not super likely that one outproduces abreu's 70 hit tool and 65 power which is really rare among prospects.

that doesn't mean the rebuild is a bad idea. It is very likely that the top3 in WAR of the 2022 sox won't match the combined WAR of sale, quintana and abreu of the 2014 sox but the team still will be better because of much better depth. depth is super important in the modern game and that is what the rebuild is about, not about improving the top3-4 players.

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On 6/8/2018 at 10:33 AM, hogan873 said:

Abreu is not an elite 1st baseman.  I personally believe he's better than many think, but he's probably realistically a so-so defensive player.  Offensively, he's one of the most consistent hitters in the league.  He may never be in the running for home run leader or highest BA, but he's going to hit .300, 25-30 HRs, and 90-100 RBIs.  Still doesn't make him elite.

And why do you think most of the prospects won't produce?  I know you hate the rebuild, even though you refuse to understand it.  But there are some great prospects that have a real chance to be very good...maybe even elite.

I'm just saying if any of the prospects produce as Abreu has, people should consider them runaway success stories. I'm so sick of sports fans only caring about the unknown. Abreu is a proven star for gawd sakes.

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1 minute ago, greg775 said:

I'm just saying if any of the prospects produce as Abreu has, people should consider them runaway success stories. I'm so sick of sports fans only caring about the unknown. Abreu is a proven star for gawd sakes.

But will be a star in 2020-2022?

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20 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I'd feel pretty good about extending him at $18 to $20 million a year for those years.

Wouldn't be opposed to it but wouldn't be thrilled either going out to 2022 fully guaranteed.   Obviously it makes sense to gauge interest in him at the deadline before entering negotiations but say for argument that the offers were pretty underwhelming (nobody offered a top 100 guy) and the Sox and Jose are looking to get a deal done...

How about three years, 65 million ('19,'20,'21, so you're hoping for about 3 WAR a year and paying full freight on it) with a vesting option at 500 PA for 2022 at 25 million.  If he's healthy in 2021 I'd have to think he's productive.

I don't know if I value his leadership as much as yourself 2k5, but it is worth something and if there isn't a good trade to make I'd be fine paying market rate for him, just don't go past 2021-22. 

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4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Wouldn't be opposed to it but wouldn't be thrilled either going out to 2022 fully guaranteed.   Obviously it makes sense to gauge interest in him at the deadline before entering negotiations but say for argument that the offers were pretty underwhelming (nobody offered a top 100 guy) and the Sox and Jose are looking to get a deal done...

How about three years, 65 million ('19,'20,'21, so you're hoping for about 3 WAR a year and paying full freight on it) with a vesting option at 500 PA for 2022 at 25 million.  If he's healthy in 2021 I'd have to think he's productive.

I don't know if I value his leadership as much as yourself 2k5, but it is worth something and if there isn't a good trade to make I'd be fine paying market rate for him, just don't go past 2021-22. 

If Jose Abreu came today and said he would sign a reasonable 4 year deal (say under $80 million) which took out his last arb year and his next three FA years, I would do it.  I really think his superior hit tool is going to carry him into his mid to late 30's pretty well.  Obvious if I could get an option for his last year, I would do it, but when you look at what JD Martinez (AAV $22m, front loaded and opt outs in years two and three), I think that is a pretty reasonable deal.

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45 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I'm just saying if any of the prospects produce as Abreu has, people should consider them runaway success stories. I'm so sick of sports fans only caring about the unknown. Abreu is a proven star for gawd sakes.

How a player will age is also an unknown. Current day Abreu = star. Mid/late-30's Abreu? Who knows (though, I'd bet on him hitting well still).

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14 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

How a player will age is also an unknown. Current day Abreu = star. Mid/late-30's Abreu? Who knows (though, I'd bet on him hitting well still).

I'm sorta inclined to think like @southsider2k5 that his hit tool will age rather gracefully but at the same time he'll be even more pigeonholed as a slugging DH and if he loses power, he's going to have a hard time getting to 3-4 WAR on hit tool alone.

Given Jose's place in the Sox' history (as a Cuban, as a Latin ambassador for fans and players) I'd like to see him stick around, but it's not an easy decision.

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2 hours ago, greg775 said:

I'm just saying if any of the prospects produce as Abreu has, people should consider them runaway success stories. I'm so sick of sports fans only caring about the unknown. Abreu is a proven star for gawd sakes.

Abreu is a proven star, I'll agree with that.  And if some of these prospects end up producing like him, they will be successes.  I believe what most are getting at is that Abreu is producing very well right now and has been since he put on a Sox jersey.  But how will he be in the projected competing years (2020-2022, and beyond)?  Personally, I'd be all for extending him through 2022 for $17-$20 million a year.  By then, though, he's most likely be primarily a DH.

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