Jump to content

A fair and balanced soliloquy about Jose Abreu, by ron


ron883

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

I agree that he's well liked by the fans in general.  On this board, though, there's a lot of dislike towards him.

To be honest, its really only a few people.  Abreu is a very talented hitter, but he is the type of player that has been losing value around the league for some time now.  He's just not a guy you need to pay $15M+ a year to on the open market.  I do think the Sox eventually pay him a little more than they need to, and he gets extended or resigns for a 2 year $24-26M deal to stay with the Sox.  I honestly think 2/$18M should get it done, though.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Post playing days, I wonder if Jose would have interest in any kind of organizational position post baseball.  An aide to the guys who come from Latin America/Carribean?  Some what continuing in a mentorship role.  Maybe around the big club when they are at home and minors when they are on the road.  If he doesn't want that time commitment,  he could still be an ambassador and do the spring training visit and a few during the season etc.

Edited by BamaDoc
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hogan873 said:

I agree that he's well liked by the fans in general.  On this board, though, there's a lot of dislike towards him.

There's a huge difference between disliking a guy and thinking it's time to cut bait before things get real ugly. 

He's an aging, one dimensional player whose one dimension has just been pretty solid, not anything approaching elite. 

Edited by mqr
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mqr said:

There's a huge difference between disliking a guy and thinking it's time to cut bait before things get real ugly. 

There's really no evidence that things are going to get real ugly soon.  He's hitting for more power this year and is bringing his average back up closer to where we'd expect it to be.  I think it's safe to have the guy around for another 2 years, especially considering the young talent coming into the fold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, hogan873 said:

There's really no evidence that things are going to get real ugly soon.  He's hitting for more power this year and is bringing his average back up closer to where we'd expect it to be.  I think it's safe to have the guy around for another 2 years, especially considering the young talent coming into the fold.

He's been floating between a 110-120 wRC+ for a year and half now. That's already pretty close to useless for player like abreu. If it get's any worse, and it likely will get worse next year or the year after, he becomes an active hindrance. 

If he goes on an absolute tear the next month or two I'll rethink this, but right now there's no way I give him more than a year + team option. 

Edited by mqr
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, mqr said:

He's been floating between a 110-120 wRC+ for a year and half now. That's already pretty close to useless for player like abreu. If it get's any worse, and it likely will get worse next year or the year after, he becomes an active hindrance. 

If he goes on an absolute tear the next month or two I'll rethink this, but right now there's no way I give him more than a year + team option. 

He is 66th out of 157th qualified over at Fangraphs in wRC+. That’s not useless, IMO. I think the mantra we have gotten used to in evaluating players like Jose in this era is looking at how bad they are defensively and saying that they gotta somehow be completely elite offensively to offset that; ie if Jose is not a 4-6 WAR player offsetting the defensive liabilities, he’s “bad”. However, there are a ton of players in exactly his boat that I don’t think are bad. And, really, is the defensive component offsetting it that much?

”Bad defense” is also incredibly tough to quantify the impact of. Certain errors are utterly meaningless, whereas other errors open the door to runs or even losses, but also if we look at fangraphs team defensive metric stats, a lot of them make zero sense. Certain teams make up for bad range with one player with excellent range from another, ie Luis Robert might make Eloy Jimenez more passable defensively. 

The Twins are one of the worst defensively rated teams and yet they have that sterling record. Conversely, the Diamondbacks have the best rating in terms of team defense but they’re not much better than our Sox in the standings.

jose is a 1.2 fWAR player today. If he ends up being a 3 WAR player (not that much of a tear to go on and his BABIP is still below career, and it’s not even hot out yet) I just think what you have is still a solid reliable option for 2 more years. I think is floor is certainly still heigher than a player like Yonder “Look Out Below” Alonso.

Edited by Greg Hibbard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

He is 66th out of 157th qualified over at Fangraphs in wRC+. That’s not useless, IMO. I think the mantra we have gotten used to in evaluating players like Jose in this era is looking at how bad they are defensively and saying that they gotta somehow be completely elite offensively to offset that; ie if Jose is not a 4-6 WAR player offsetting the defensive liabilities, he’s “bad”. However, there are a ton of players in exactly his boat that I don’t think are bad. And, really, is the defensive component offsetting it that much?

”Bad defense” is also incredibly tough to quantify the impact of. Certain errors are utterly meaningless, whereas other errors open the door to runs or even losses, but also if we look at fangraphs team defensive metric stats, a lot of them make zero sense. Certain teams make up for bad range with one player with excellent range from another, ie Luis Robert might make Eloy Jimenez more passable defensively. 

The Twins are one of the worst defensively rated teams and yet they have that sterling record. Conversely, the Diamondbacks have the best rating in terms of team defense but they’re not much better than our Sox in the standings.

jose is a 1.2 fWAR player today. If he ends up being a 3 WAR player (not that much of a tear to go on and his BABIP is still below career, and it’s not even hot out yet) I just think what you have is still a solid reliable option for 2 more years. I think is floor is certainly still heigher than a player like Yonder “Look Out Below” Alonso.

I agree with everything you posted except after watching Jose lumber around 1B for the last half a decade I think we can conclude he's one of the worst defensive 1B in all MLB and costs the sox  about 10 runs every year that a really good 1B would prevent.  That's about 1 WAR and it's why Jose's bat needs to be better than just "good" for him to be anything more than a decent regular.  

The Sox might be in a position where it's smart to pay him like a decent regular.  But the market rate for decent DHs isn't much.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Quin said:

Can we cut the shit about Cubans lying about their age? The island is heavily scouted, especially with international play.

I know that as a KU basketball fan, @greg775 is used to sports teams lying about anything and everything to get an advantage, but this shit is old and isn't unique to Cuba. American athletes have lied about their ages.

I think it is more common in the DR. It is harder to do in places where they keep good records. I heard Scary Spice knocked a couple years off. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I agree with everything you posted except after watching Jose lumber around 1B for the last half a decade I think we can conclude he's one of the worst defensive 1B in all MLB and costs the sox  about 10 runs every year that a really good 1B would prevent.  That's about 1 WAR and it's why Jose's bat needs to be better than just "good" for him to be anything more than a decent regular.  

The Sox might be in a position where it's smart to pay him like a decent regular.  But the market rate for decent DHs isn't much.

A decent regular is needed until Vaughn get here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, hogan873 said:

I don't think I've ever seen so much distaste for a player by a group of fans.  Let me rephrase that: I haven't seen this much distaste for a good player. 

It just drives me crazy. It's like the stat people just have to prove how smarter they are than traditional stat peeps by insisting Jose blows. They find an advanced stat and won't consider homers and RBIs at all.

I've said it before I worship Jose Abreu in the baseball sense of the word and considering my disdain for what I consider a cheap owner, I wouldn't be upset if we signed him four years at 16 mill a year. Again it's not my cash. I think a fair deal would be 3 years 39 million. Jose is a masher!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, greg775 said:

It just drives me crazy. It's like the stat people just have to prove how smarter they are than traditional stat peeps by insisting Jose blows. They find an advanced stat and won't consider homers and RBIs at all.

I've said it before I worship Jose Abreu in the baseball sense of the word and considering my disdain for what I consider a cheap owner, I wouldn't be upset if we signed him four years at 16 mill a year. Again it's not my cash. I think a fair deal would be 3 years 39 million. Jose is a masher!

I was with you all the way until " four years at 16 mill a year."  I would like to see 2 or 3 years at 10 to 12 mill.  At our best we might have 150-175 million to spread around those 25 players.  Need to pay fairly but not overpay.  Like most players... Jose is a great power & RBI guy but has his shortcomings.  Another year at 1st base and another year or two at DH while Vaughn prepares himself.  However RH handles it...I think it's an absolute must that Abreu signs an extension or gets traded.  He is a good asset and those can't be allowed to just walk away at the end of his contract.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, greg775 said:

It just drives me crazy. It's like the stat people just have to prove how smarter they are than traditional stat peeps by insisting Jose blows. They find an advanced stat and won't consider homers and RBIs at all.

I've said it before I worship Jose Abreu in the baseball sense of the word and considering my disdain for what I consider a cheap owner, I wouldn't be upset if we signed him four years at 16 mill a year. Again it's not my cash. I think a fair deal would be 3 years 39 million. Jose is a masher!

To a point, I think advanced stats are ruining baseball.  To a point.  I can understand a team (those making the decisions) scouring over stats and making the best moves based on what the stats are telling them.  That makes sense.  But when fans will scour the advanced stats to find a reason to say a player is terrible when all the basic stats say otherwise...that's a different story.  My point about Jose was that there is no one in the Sox system that will produce as he is right now and should produce for a couple more years.  There's not a lot of guys out there the Sox could sign or trade for that could produce like Jose is producing; not for less money, that is.  He's on pace to lead the team in HRs and RBIs, and he's a leader on and off the field.  He's made it clear he wants to play here.  If the Sox can sign him for another 2 years at $12M per or so, he'd be worth it.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, greg775 said:

It just drives me crazy. It's like the stat people just have to prove how smarter they are than traditional stat peeps by insisting Jose blows. They find an advanced stat and won't consider homers and RBIs at all.

I've said it before I worship Jose Abreu in the baseball sense of the word and considering my disdain for what I consider a cheap owner, I wouldn't be upset if we signed him four years at 16 mill a year. Again it's not my cash. I think a fair deal would be 3 years 39 million. Jose is a masher!

Post of the week!

  • Like 1
  • Love 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, poppysox said:

I was with you all the way until " four years at 16 mill a year."  I would like to see 2 or 3 years at 10 to 12 mill.  At our best we might have 150-175 million to spread around those 25 players.  Need to pay fairly but not overpay.  Like most players... Jose is a great power & RBI guy but has his shortcomings.  Another year at 1st base and another year or two at DH while Vaughn prepares himself.  However RH handles it...I think it's an absolute must that Abreu signs an extension or gets traded.  He is a good asset and those can't be allowed to just walk away at the end of his contract.  

I said 4 years 16 mill a year just cause i'm mad at Jerry and would be OK with nice guy Jose getting some of his money. But I'm more like 12 or 13 mill a year for 3 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

I said 4 years 16 mill a year just cause i'm mad at Jerry and would be OK with nice guy Jose getting some of his money. But I'm more like 12 or 13 mill a year for 3 years.

Yeah...I brainwashed into watching out that someone gets some of Jerry's money they don't deserve.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Abreu is 21st out of 26 qualifying 1B in baseball in WRC+, 21st in WAR. 24th in OBP. He is 13th in slugging. 

The problem is that the FA market for 1B is pretty barren this year, unless they would ask someone like Castellanos to play first.

I guess the best bet is to sign him to a 1yr deal and move on from him once Vaughn is ready.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/16/2019 at 5:38 PM, Greg Hibbard said:

Since this thread went up, Jose is 10/17 with 2 doubles and a homer but I’m sure it’s extraordinarily concerning to Ron that he hasn’t been able to elevate his pathetic .588 batting average to a higher obp with any walks over that timeframe 

How's he doing now? Jose is on one of his patented ice cold streaks where he is complete garbage. We don't need Jose past this season. Vaughn may be a better hitter than him NOW

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Abreu is 21st out of 26 qualifying 1B in baseball in WRC+, 21st in WAR. 24th in OBP. He is 13th in slugging. 

The problem is that the FA market for 1B is pretty barren this year, unless they would ask someone like Castellanos to play first.

I guess the best bet is to sign him to a 1yr deal and move on from him once Vaughn is ready.

The Abreu hero worshipping on here is sickening. You may very well be public enemy #1 for posting facts like this around here.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, ron883 said:

The Abreu hero worshipping on here is sickening. You may very well be public enemy #1 for posting facts like this around here.

Our lineup would be so bad without Abreu. In your hatred of him do you realize how hard it's been on him for years with such a pathetic lineup and so little protection around here? Do you realize how tough it is to hit year after year when the team blows so badly? Just give Abreu his $$$s and forget about it. Better he get some money than Jerry pocket even more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Our lineup would be so bad without Abreu. In your hatred of him do you realize how hard it's been on him for years with such a pathetic lineup and so little protection around here? Do you realize how tough it is to hit year after year when the team blows so badly? Just give Abreu his $$$s and forget about it. Better he get some money than Jerry pocket even more.

He does just fine when the team he bad. Jose is King of hitting when there is no pressure. The guy was worth 1.2 fWAR last year and has been worth 0.3 fWAR this year. He just isn't that good! Sub 800 OPS this year. You replace him with Palka or Collins and not much changes IMO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, ron883 said:

He does just fine when the team he bad. Jose is King of hitting when there is no pressure. The guy was worth 1.2 fWAR last year and has been worth 0.3 fWAR this year. He just isn't that good! Sub 800 OPS this year. You replace him with Palka or Collins and not much changes IMO

Why do you despise one of our better hitters so much? Again, he is an actual worthy big leaguer. We've had so many hitters on this team this year and past several years who are not big league hitters. Why pick on one of our best players? Do you want we Jose lovers to admit he's not Pujols in his prime? Of course I'll admit it. Jose is not overpaid by any means. He has been one of our better hitters his entire stay in Chicago. Is your beef you'd rather save the money he gets and give it to some other free agent? Yonder Alonso isn't exactly tearing it up. All Jose does is play the game the right way. He's not some mega superstar, fine. You win. He is again ... ONE OF OUR BEST PLAYERS. He put together a fine little career. That means nothing I guess.

Again ... are you out to save jerry a few bucks? Uh, I don't think Jerry needs your help when he threw money out the window when he signed Jay and Alonso. Nobody needs the money; Jose takes a good chunk, tries to earn his keep and you hate him. Again WE ADMIT HE"S NOT GOD'S GIFT TO HITTING, NOT DICK ALLEN, NOT RICHIE ZISK ,not the Big Hurt. But he's been one of the top hitters in our lineup for years. And you despise him. It's sick.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ron883 said:

He does just fine when the team he bad. Jose is King of hitting when there is no pressure. The guy was worth 1.2 fWAR last year and has been worth 0.3 fWAR this year. He just isn't that good! Sub 800 OPS this year. You replace him with Palka or Collins and not much changes IMO

Bugger off with your nonsense, already.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...