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A fair and balanced soliloquy about Jose Abreu, by ron


ron883

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 08:19 PM)
We should blow it up. Season is lost.

 

The white sox analyst were wondering what is wrong with Abreau... Garfien and co were talking about it after the game.

 

 

It's way too early to panic but I don't ever recall him looking this bad.

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QUOTE (harkness @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 02:06 AM)
He is really struggling at the moment with his discipline.

Robin mentioned it after the game in his interview at mlb.com. He seemed frustrated in that Jose has to be selective.

 

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 02:19 AM)
We should blow it up. Season is lost.

For a mod, you'd think you know some things deserve to be discussed on a message board. Why is Jose off limits? Your line is unbecoming of a mod who should know better IMO.

 

QUOTE (harkness @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 02:23 AM)
The white sox analyst were wondering what is wrong with Abreau... Garfien and co were talking about it after the game.

It's way too early to panic but I don't ever recall him looking this bad.

Yes, it's worth discussing right now. If he was raking, our lineup would be looking a lot better. Melky has had a good start so the Eaton/Melky/Abreu threesome could be doing some damage if Abreu was doing Abreu-like things.

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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 08:34 PM)
I do. He has had plenty of one week stretches where he looks clueless.

 

The other day they were saying he has never batted below .200.

 

So yeah I kind of know what you mean... BUT I have never seen him look THIS bad.

 

 

Chances are he will be fine....

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If the White Sox were 6-10, then it MIGHT be something to take a look at.

 

Suppose it's a harmless diversion from criticizing Avi Garcia, Danks and Duke (lesser extent)...or Sands. Everyone was so spoiled by his rookie year, especially the first half when his PA's were "must see tv" that maybe he's now a little bit the victim of unfair expectations or assumptions he'll always produce homers like in 2014 when 2015 might be closer to the norm.

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QUOTE (greg775 @ Apr 21, 2016 -> 11:05 PM)
Robin mentioned it after the game in his interview at mlb.com. He seemed frustrated in that Jose has to be selective.

 

 

For a mod, you'd think you know some things deserve to be discussed on a message board. Why is Jose off limits? Your line is unbecoming of a mod who should know better IMO.

 

 

Yes, it's worth discussing right now. If he was raking, our lineup would be looking a lot better. Melky has had a good start so the Eaton/Melky/Abreu threesome could be doing some damage if Abreu was doing Abreu-like things.

 

Apparently only greg gets an opinion, and not mods. Sorry Q.

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Funnily enough, his problem seems to be not swinging at balls inside the zone, rather than outside. His O-Swing% is the lowest it's ever been, by a lot (32% in 2016, 38% in 2015, 42% in 2014), so he's cut down a lot on swinging at balls. However, his Z-Swing% is also the lowest it's ever been (63% in 2016, 67% in 2015, 75% in 2014). So he needs to swing at strikes more, he's missing some good pitches to hit. According to Fangraphs he's also seeing slightly more pitches in the zone this year compared to both 2015 and 2014 (though Pitch F/X says the opposite). Either way, I think he actually needs to swing the bat more, not less.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 02:02 PM)
Funnily enough, his problem seems to be not swinging at balls inside the zone, rather than outside. His O-Swing% is the lowest it's ever been, by a lot (32% in 2016, 38% in 2015, 42% in 2014), so he's cut down a lot on swinging at balls. However, his Z-Swing% is also the lowest it's ever been (63% in 2016, 67% in 2015, 75% in 2014). So he needs to swing at strikes more, he's missing some good pitches to hit. According to Fangraphs he's also seeing slightly more pitches in the zone this year compared to both 2015 and 2014 (though Pitch F/X says the opposite). Either way, I think he actually needs to swing the bat more, not less.

This is a very good post. His walk rate and strikeout rates aren't that out of line with his career numbers. Abreu's plate discipline has always been a problem. That's part of the reason he's a very good hitter rather than a great one. But he currently has a .211 BABIP. That will not continue. Eventually the hits will start falling in, he'll hit for a little bit more power, and his struggles will be a non issue. There is nothing to suggest that he's been figured out or that he's had a sudden decline in ability.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 09:54 PM)
What was his prior worst slump?

 

Well for example... before this year he only had a batting avg under 200 for ONE day in his career in two years... headed for his 4th consecutive.

 

 

He is 4 for his 40

 

I can't find anything even close to that level last year.. haven't looked at all the games the year before - EDIT: I found I believe to be his worse slump before this - rookie year 8-39

 

Again - not saying he won't be okay - but he has not struggled quite like this before.

Edited by harkness
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QUOTE (harkness @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 10:10 PM)
Well for example... before this year he only had a batting avg under 200 for ONE day in his career in two years... headed for his 4th consecutive.

 

 

He is 4 for his 40

 

I can't find anything even close to that level last year.. haven't looked at all the games the year before.

 

Again - not saying he won't be okay - but he has not struggled like this before.

 

His batting average is immaterial to what kind of slump he is in. Saying this is the worst slump he has ever been in, isn't the same as him hitting under .200 for a number of days. This is just the lowest batting average he has had, unless you have actually done the research to figure out what kind of slumps he has been in before.

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Huh? lol

 

How is it not immaterial that he has been under .200 for 4 straight days.. which also coincides from what appears to be the worse slump of his career (the worst I could find before was 8-39)

 

But lets be honest it won't matter what evidence I give you.

 

Here is a link for you also http://www.chatsports.com/chicago-white-so...-slump-12415245

Edited by harkness
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QUOTE (harkness @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 10:14 PM)
Huh? lol

 

How is it not immaterial that he has been under .200 for 4 straight days.. which also coincides from what appears to be the worse slump of his career (the worst I could find before was 8-39)

 

But lets be honest it won't matter what evidence I give you.

 

Here is a link for you also http://www.chatsports.com/chicago-white-so...-slump-12415245

 

I don't think you actually understand statistics from reading this thread. That is the point.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 11:55 PM)
I don't think you actually understand statistics from reading this thread. That is the point.

 

I don't think you understand statistics from reading this thread...

 

I guess you don't think the writers in the article didn't understand statistics either... I gave you statistics and so did they.

 

 

I guess it's a message board though so you can't admit that you were wrong - unwritten rule of message boards... I guess we have to agree to disagree.

Edited by harkness
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The days under .200 thing is not a relevant stat to a slump. You're just comparing early April stats to early April stats, not to whether he's actually had an extended slump like this. It would have been impossible for him to hit under .200 for the season in September these past two years.

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On June 2, 1983, 47 games into the season, Carlton Fisk was hitting .197 with 5 homers. He was considered done, finished. He finished 3rd in the MVP voting that season and played 10 more years. It is amazing the overreaction caused by a week or two of not hitting.

Edited by Dick Allen
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read the article and the rest of the stats.... the "under 200" thing is not the only thing there....

 

The simple question is "Is this his worse slump ever"

 

If you look at the game logs it appears to be...

 

There has never been a stretch where he had so few hits in so many at bats

 

 

Not if he will suck forever or any other noise.

Edited by harkness
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QUOTE (harkness @ Apr 23, 2016 -> 08:59 AM)
read the article and the rest of the stats.... the "under 200" thing is not the only thing there....

 

The simple question is "Is this his worse slump ever"

 

If you look at the game logs it appears to be...

 

Not if he will suck forever or any other noise.

If this is his worse slump ever and the team is able to weather it with an 11-6 record, White Sox fans should be thrilled.

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QUOTE (harkness @ Apr 23, 2016 -> 08:43 AM)
I don't think you understand statistics from reading this thread...

 

I guess you don't think the writers in the article didn't understand statistics either... I gave you statistics and so did they.

 

 

I guess it's a message board though so you can't admit that you were wrong - unwritten rule of message boards... I guess we have to agree to disagree.

Most of us can admit when we are wrong. You gotta learn who can and who can't.

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