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A fair and balanced soliloquy about Jose Abreu, by ron


ron883

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QUOTE (ron883 @ Jun 5, 2016 -> 03:33 PM)
Jose has been just terrible this year. Seems like it started late last year. I wish wasn't dead on with my prediction about Jose. We could use his bat

 

If you weren't enjoying it so much, you probably should quit bringing it up over and over again.

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  • 2 weeks later...
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 5, 2016 -> 05:43 PM)
If you weren't enjoying it so much, you probably should quit bringing it up over and over again.

Luckily for us, Abreu is back so we won't have to read his posts taking pleasure in his slumping anymore.

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QUOTE (ron883 @ Jun 5, 2016 -> 03:33 PM)
Jose has been just terrible this year. Seems like it started late last year. I wish wasn't dead on with my prediction about Jose. We could use his bat

 

"Seems like it started late last year."

 

When do you begin "late last year?"

 

Second half 2015 Abreu: .284/.352/.514/.866, .365 wOBA, 131 wRC+, .324 BABIP

August 2015 Abreu: .265/.325/.513/.838, .357 wOBA, 126 wRC+, .293 BABIP

Sept/Oct 2015: .295/.356/.500/.856, .356 wOBA, 125 wRC+, .349 BABIP

 

(Abreu's career BABIP is .336. All of those are completely and entirely reasonable, though technically not sustainable given the small sample size)

 

What exactly did you see "late last year?"

 

---

He's currently walking more and striking out less than he has in his career, and his BABIP is currently at .299, which is significantly lower than his career average. I won't argue that there could have been some sort of change in his talent, but watching him at the plate, I don't see anything different than any other non-elite but still very good hitter goes through from time to time. He's just fine.

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QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jun 14, 2016 -> 12:33 AM)
Abreu just seemed to be trying to do way too much all the time. He's back now with good ABs, contact and power. Now to get the ToddFather going...

 

He does go through that phase occasionally, especially when the offense is struggling. It is like he is trying to put it all on his shoulders and make something happen.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jun 1, 2016 -> 02:59 PM)
I definitely think the approach is the issue. I don't think it's a coincidence that his best stretch of the season (last week of April through the first week of May) he was swinging at 76% of strikes. Outside of that stretch he's swung at 63% of strikes and has struggled accordingly. Seeing a lot more inside fastballs is also a big issue, but I think the not swinging at strikes thing is definitely the biggest. In 2014 he swung at even more junk than he does now, but he also swung at nearly every pitch in the zone. He needs to go back to doing that. The increase in soft-hit% that you're seeing is mostly coming from him hitting weaker grounders than the last couple years, but I think that's caused him to lose maybe about 4-5 singles, so I don't think it's a big difference-maker.

Over the past two weeks Abreu is hitting .360/.404/.640. Not to continue repeating myself, but over that stretch he's still swinging at a lot of pitches outside the zone. Difference is he's swung at 79.5% of strikes in that time. Forget everything else, that's always been the issue, and it always will IMO. The league never figured him out, he just needs to swing at strikes. When he does he hits like the Abreu we know, when he doesn't he struggles. It's that simple, really.

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  • 1 year later...

To put it lightly, his defense has been a steaming pile of garbage. His uzr/150 is freaking -14.4. That will only get worse after today. If Jose isn't traded by the deadline, do they make him dh and stick somebody else there? His defense has been pathetic. They might as well try Davidson there. There is absolutely 0 chance he can be worse than Jose. The awful defense at 1B is particularly disappointing because it hurts His trade value to NL teams. 

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4 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

To put it lightly, his defense has been a steaming pile of garbage. His uzr/150 is freaking -14.4. That will only get worse after today. If Jose isn't traded by the deadline, do they make him dh and stick somebody else there? His defense has been pathetic. They might as well try Davidson there. There is absolutely 0 chance he can be worse than Jose. The awful defense at 1B is particularly disappointing because it hurts His trade value to NL teams. 

Yea, it’s imparitive to this team that they win and figure out production on both sides of the ball right now.

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3 hours ago, fathom said:

I'm not familiar with it, but what's the best measure then?

First base is just such a weird position to try to quantify defensively. I like UZR in general but I tend to apply it to just outfielders and non-1B infielders, where there are far more opportunities for plays to be made and perhaps more precise data on how often a given batted ball is converted into an out, since a lot of 1B defense involves being on the receiving end of a play by another infielder.

 

I honestly can't answer your question because I don't know how I would judge a first baseman's defense using a sabermetric. Maybe DRS, if I had to pick one (where Abreu is at -4, which seems accurate). Honestly, and this is coming from a sabes guy, I would use the eye test for 1B defense. In my opinion, Abreu is a below average 1B defender but putting him out there isn't gonna severely hurt your team, like putting Palka out in RF would. I do think that he is a lot better than people think when it comes to scooping/picking bad throws. But he's certainly nowhere near as good as Freeman, Belt, Rizzo, etc. defensively. That's something that fangraphs would also agree with. 

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Jose's defense at first is serviceable for a team if you have a masher taking up the DH slot, which Davidson and Palka are.  I'm fine with his D, as long as he is letting a worse defender not play the field.  He isn't costing the Sox too much on defense as far as the eye test.

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Honestly, watching the games lately, he has looked pretty bad and unathletic on a lot of plays. Having said that, it's a tank year and I don't mind him being at 1B. He's our star and not ready to be a full-time DH (though I feel remember reading within the past year or two that he was opening up to the idea of DHing more?).

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14 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

I may be wrong but I heard and read that Jose' isn't on-board with becoming a full time DH which obviously is an issue if the Sox were trying to force it on him.

Awww, poor Jose. If he doesn't want to be DH then he can work on his sorry ass defense and not be the worst defensive 1b in the league

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22 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Your hate for Jose Abreu is astonishing.  

Well when you are wrong about the offense for three years straight, and clowned repeatedly for it, you gotta move the goalposts 

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11 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

First base is just such a weird position to try to quantify defensively. I like UZR in general but I tend to apply it to just outfielders and non-1B infielders, where there are far more opportunities for plays to be made and perhaps more precise data on how often a given batted ball is converted into an out, since a lot of 1B defense involves being on the receiving end of a play by another infielder.

 

I honestly can't answer your question because I don't know how I would judge a first baseman's defense using a sabermetric. Maybe DRS, if I had to pick one (where Abreu is at -4, which seems accurate). Honestly, and this is coming from a sabes guy, I would use the eye test for 1B defense. In my opinion, Abreu is a below average 1B defender but putting him out there isn't gonna severely hurt your team, like putting Palka out in RF would. I do think that he is a lot better than people think when it comes to scooping/picking bad throws. But he's certainly nowhere near as good as Freeman, Belt, Rizzo, etc. defensively. That's something that fangraphs would also agree with. 

For what it's worth, I asked Keith Law and he said neither UZR nor DRS are reliable for first basemen.

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