SoxTalk fan pulse: How far away are the Sox from competing?

[Dick Allen]

Detroit and KC are so bad. Cleveland is nearing the end of their run. Minnesota is good but Cruz is 39, and I doubt they keep hitting homers at this current rate beyond this season. It won’t take a great team to compete. It’s time for “a great lossy for the rebuild” to be put to bed. If next year is a real struggle, I think they are going to really take a hit support wise. 

[Capital G]

Voted 21. But I wouldn't be shocked if we compete next year with a couple of additions and more development from our key guys. 

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

2021 at the earliest.  Sure Hahn can "go for it" next year and we'll be back to 2015.

Lol at 2021 at the earliest.  If this team is not contending by 2021 then the rebuild has been a total flop.

The goal should be to compete next year.  Whether the young guys take the necessary steps forward is a TBD, but wasting another year of Moncada, Giolito, etc. would be absolute insanity.  The clock starts ticking this offseason.

[SonofaRoache]

There is no reason that we can't win 88 games next year. Although our biggest hole is in Jerry's wallet, if we spend the money and upgrade our other three huge holes at Vet SP1, DH, RF, we will be ready to roll. After that add a second bottom of rotation stabilizer. That would give us three pitchers we can depend on and hopefully guys like Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon etc can step up. The only hole on offense once Magical and Lu are up would be Renteria. 

[NWINFan]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol at 2021 at the earliest.  If this team is not contending by 2021 then the rebuild has been a total flop.

The goal should be to compete next year.  Whether the young guys take the necessary steps forward is a TBD, but wasting another year of Moncada, Giolito, etc. would be absolute insanity.  The clock starts ticking this offseason.

I agree with this. By now the team knows the progress of the rebuild. Some pieces are there, and it is time to move on. Money needs to be spent if they want to win, and there is no way around it. Sitting around waiting for more young players to develop is another example of insanity. At least one major move has to be made, or fans will wonder what this franchise really wants to be. A winning team or the Pirates?

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, NWINFan said:

I agree with this. By now the team knows the progress of the rebuild. Some pieces are there, and it is time to move on. Money needs to be spent if they want to win, and there is no way around it. Sitting around waiting for more young players to develop is another example of insanity. At least one major move has to be made, or fans will wonder what this franchise really wants to be. A winning team or the Pirates?

If they don’t spend big this offseason, then the fanbase should riot.  Now is the time to be aggressive.

[caulfield12]

7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If they don’t spend big this offseason, then the fanbase should riot.  Now is the time to be aggressive.

Is big three signings like Robertson/Cabrera/LaRoche or JUST one for a starting pitcher in the $50-75 million range?  Two for under $100 million?  For example, Wood and Grandal?  Ozuna and Odorizzi?  Ryu and Puig/Castellanos?

I can just imagine it now...if/when they do bring back Abreu, hearing how they DID spend X amount of dollars defending their offseason.

Because we managed to bring in over $30 million of new contracts this year and we all know how well most of those (other than McCann, the cheapest of all) worked out.  So our definition should be bringing in players with 3 year contracts and beyond, then?

[Chicago White Sox]

21 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Is big three signings like Robertson/Cabrera/LaRoche or JUST one for a starting pitcher in the $50-75 million range?  Two for under $100 million?  For example, Wood and Grandal?  Ozuna and Odorizzi?  Ryu and Puig/Castellanos?

I can just imagine it now...if/when they do bring back Abreu, hearing how they DID spend X amount of dollars defending their offseason.

Because we managed to bring in over $30 million of new contracts this year and we all know how well most of those (other than McCann, the cheapest of all) worked out.  So our definition should be bringing in players with 3 year contracts and beyond, then?

It’s really simple, just bring in several impactful players.  There is no magic dollar amount or years threshold.  I think Grandal will be one of the best players on the market and we might be able to get him for like 3/$60M.  Do I really care if the total commitment is less than Abreu’s original deal?  Fuck no.  The more important item is sporting a league average payroll or better.  If they do that, I will likely be happy wit the results of the offseason.

[caulfield12]

You realistically expect payroll will be $120-140 million next year, which is still below average?

The top 6-8 teams now are really pulling that average payroll number up, compared to a few teams like the Marlins, Rays and Pirates. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

You realistically expect payroll will be $120-140 million next year, which is still below average?

The top 6-8 teams now are really pulling that average payroll number up, compared to a few teams like the Marlins, Rays and Pirates. 

Hasn't it been in that range in the past ?

[caulfield12]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Hasn't it been in that range in the past ?

Of course, from 2006-2013.

A few seasons in top 5, mostly averaging somewhere between 8th-12th, which is actually where the value of the franchise was at the time.   I think the absolute peak for franchise value was #8, I think currently we're down to the #14-16 range, which is certainly to be expected with the losing/retooling/rebuilding stretch from 2013 until today.

[bighurt574]

I'm not saying we'll get it but there's absolutely no reason we shouldn't be "competing" for a WC spot next year.  This offseason is the time to actually spend some real money to supplement the young guys in the system.    

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

35 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Of course, from 2006-2013.

A few seasons in top 5, mostly averaging somewhere between 8th-12th, which is actually where the value of the franchise was at the time.   I think the absolute peak for franchise value was #8, I think currently we're down to the #14-16 range, which is certainly to be expected with the losing/retooling/rebuilding stretch from 2013 until today.

Then I'd say it is very realistic to expect it in that range again. After all that was the point of rebuilding .Lower payroll get young talent that will perform at the MLB level ,then fill holes with FA because of lowered payroll. I'm not optimistic they even know how to sign big free agents. They seem hopefully out of touch when Machado is offered a contract with the Frank Thomas diminishing skills clause in the guise of a "just stay on the field" clause. Now, how that might apply to pitchers, which has been Reinsdorf bigger of his Achilles heels in free agency, I don't know . Seems even less likely.

All I know is they better make a splash early to show how serious they are. That could help other FA's and fans know the Sox mean business. After all that would help season ticket sales.

Edited August 7, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

You realistically expect payroll will be $120-140 million next year, which is still below average?

The top 6-8 teams now are really pulling that average payroll number up, compared to a few teams like the Marlins, Rays and Pirates. 

The median payroll is ~$125M and yes I fully expect that much minimum.  If not, then it’s clear Reinsdorf is trying to profit off the rebuild (which I didn’t believe to be the case).

[BackDoorBreach]

120 million is the 20th ranked payroll this year, only 7 million above Detroit.  There is no reason we should not be higher than that in 2020.

[NWINFan]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If they don’t spend big this offseason, then the fanbase should riot.  Now is the time to be aggressive.

If not spending really big, at least be creative. I am not going to be thrilled with some deal for a prospect that won't be ready for the majors until 2022 at the earliest. No more tanking. I don't give a damn about the draft anymore. If the Sox have another losing season in 2020, that will be eight in a row. If I am right, that would tie the franchise record for most consecutive losing seasons. I don't think that asking for a team to play a few games over .500 is all that much to ask. And please, no more Hector Santiago. I have nothing against the guy but he doesn't belong on a major league roster much less in the starting rotation.

[Bob Sacamano]

I went with the first option. Definitely depends on how many guys are going through growing pains and if they sign good free agents or not.

[Balta1701]

3 hours ago, bighurt574 said:

I'm not saying we'll get it but there's absolutely no reason we shouldn't be "competing" for a WC spot next year.  This offseason is the time to actually spend some real money to supplement the young guys in the system.    

 

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The median payroll is ~$125M and yes I fully expect that much minimum.  If not, then it’s clear Reinsdorf is trying to profit off the rebuild (which I didn’t believe to be the case).

I can never guarantee that they'll do the smart thing particularly after last offseason, but my version of this offseason is: 1. Put the team in position where if a good number of things go right they're competitive, but 2. Leave enough money uncommitted beneath whatever the salary ceiling is that they can still make a major move before 2021.

If they wanted to right now they could do $30 million for Cole, $20 million for Grandal, $20 million for Ozuna, $10 million for Abreu, and $20 million on Wheeler and some bullpen guys, and come away with a $140 million payroll for 2020 and a legit shot at the division. But, a couple guys struggle or there's another injury plagued year and not only does that plan fail, but if you committed multi-year deals to all those guys you have now created a major issue in 2021. 

In 2021 we have some contracts that end for expensive guys like Colome and Herrera, but not a whole lot comes off the books because there's not a whole lot on the books. Meanwhile, Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, and Fry hit arbitration, so that's likely at least $20 million in payroll growth, maybe more than that if Lopez ever breaks out. So if we've already blown everything on big signings in 2020 and we don't win the Central, there's virtually no money left to play with under a hypothetical $140 million payroll cap.

So yeah...maybe you go after a couple guys, maybe it's Abreu and Wheeler and Bumgarner, but you go for a cheaper RF option and hope something emerges from the system. Or maybe you go for Cole but you go cheap in RF and Catcher (yeah the White Sox won't seriously go for Cole I know). 

Either way, that's my slogan as of now. Put yourself in a position where if enough stuff goes right in 2020 you win the Central, but know how you'll answer the question "What do I do to get better in 2021 if everything doesn't go right"

[Dan of Steel]

19 hours ago, GreenSox said:

2021 at the earliest.  Sure Hahn can "go for it" next year and we'll be back to 2015.

What? Here was the lineup in 2015:

C Tyler Flowers
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Yolmer Sanchez
3B: Tyler Saladino
SS: Alexei Ramirez
LF: Melky Cabrera
CF: Adam Eaton
RF: Avi Garcia
DH: Adam LaRoche

That's a lineup consisting of only 3 players 25 y/o or young (Sanchez, Saladino and Garcia) of which, only Garcia had anything close to resembling high-level prospect hype. 

That lineup only had 3 players with an OPS above .700. That is beyond horrible. Eaton and Abreu were the only guys with above average OPS (.792 and .850 respectively).

To put that in perspective, this year's lineup has 6 players with OPS above .700.

The three in the lineup with sub .700 OPS? Ryan Cordell, Yolmer Sanchez and Yonder Alonzo. One guy will be relegated to utility man (best case) when Madrigal is called up. One guy is a spacefiller for a PTBNL at RF. The last name was released and is no longer on the team. 

The lineup as currently constructed, despite the holes, is already leagues better than 2015. You add Madrigral, Robert and a decent RF to that lineup? There's practically zero comparison. 

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, Dan of Steel said:

What? Here was the lineup in 2015:

C Tyler Flowers
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Yolmer Sanchez
3B: Tyler Saladino
SS: Alexei Ramirez
LF: Melky Cabrera
CF: Adam Eaton
RF: Avi Garcia
DH: Adam LaRoche

That's a lineup consisting of only 3 players 25 y/o or young (Sanchez, Saladino and Garcia) of which, only Garcia had anything close to resembling high-level prospect hype. 

That lineup only had 3 players with an OPS above .700. That is beyond horrible. Eaton and Abreu were the only guys with above average OPS (.792 and .850 respectively).

To put that in perspective, this year's lineup has 6 players with OPS above .700.

The three in the lineup with sub .700 OPS? Ryan Cordell, Yolmer Sanchez and Yonder Alonzo. One guy will be relegated to utility man (best case) when Madrigal is called up. One guy is a spacefiller for a PTBNL at RF. The last name was released and is no longer on the team. 

The lineup as currently constructed, despite the holes, is already leagues better than 2015. You add Madrigral, Robert and a decent RF to that lineup? There's practically zero comparison. 

Now note that 2 of those guys - Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabreroid - had OPSs above .800 the year before the White Sox signed them. 

Then do the pitching staff.

[mqr]

1 hour ago, Dan of Steel said:

What? Here was the lineup in 2015:

C Tyler Flowers
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Yolmer Sanchez
3B: Tyler Saladino
SS: Alexei Ramirez
LF: Melky Cabrera
CF: Adam Eaton
RF: Avi Garcia
DH: Adam LaRoche

That's a lineup consisting of only 3 players 25 y/o or young (Sanchez, Saladino and Garcia) of which, only Garcia had anything close to resembling high-level prospect hype. 

 That lineup only had 3 players with an OPS above .700. That is beyond horrible. Eaton and Abreu were the only guys with above average OPS (.792 and .850 respectively).

To put that in perspective, this year's lineup has 6 players with OPS above .700.

The three in the lineup with sub .700 OPS? Ryan Cordell, Yolmer Sanchez and Yonder Alonzo. One guy will be relegated to utility man (best case) when Madrigal is called up. One guy is a spacefiller for a PTBNL at RF. The last name was released and is no longer on the team. 

The lineup as currently constructed, despite the holes, is already leagues better than 2015. You add Madrigral, Robert and a decent RF to that lineup? There's practically zero comparison. 

Not really fair to look at raw OPS in this environment. But OPS+ was 2 guys over 100 in 2015 vs 4 guys in 2019. Lineup is worse overall in 19 though. 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

 

I can never guarantee that they'll do the smart thing particularly after last offseason, but my version of this offseason is: 1. Put the team in position where if a good number of things go right they're competitive, but 2. Leave enough money uncommitted beneath whatever the salary ceiling is that they can still make a major move before 2021.

If they wanted to right now they could do $30 million for Cole, $20 million for Grandal, $20 million for Ozuna, $10 million for Abreu, and $20 million on Wheeler and some bullpen guys, and come away with a $140 million payroll for 2020 and a legit shot at the division. But, a couple guys struggle or there's another injury plagued year and not only does that plan fail, but if you committed multi-year deals to all those guys you have now created a major issue in 2021. 

In 2021 we have some contracts that end for expensive guys like Colome and Herrera, but not a whole lot comes off the books because there's not a whole lot on the books. Meanwhile, Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, and Fry hit arbitration, so that's likely at least $20 million in payroll growth, maybe more than that if Lopez ever breaks out. So if we've already blown everything on big signings in 2020 and we don't win the Central, there's virtually no money left to play with under a hypothetical $140 million payroll cap.

So yeah...maybe you go after a couple guys, maybe it's Abreu and Wheeler and Bumgarner, but you go for a cheaper RF option and hope something emerges from the system. Or maybe you go for Cole but you go cheap in RF and Catcher (yeah the White Sox won't seriously go for Cole I know). 

Either way, that's my slogan as of now. Put yourself in a position where if enough stuff goes right in 2020 you win the Central, but know how you'll answer the question "What do I do to get better in 2021 if everything doesn't go right"

Ozuna’s struggling enough right now (1.6 fWAR) that he doesn’t warrant $20 million per season...he’s been above 4.5 twice but the rest of his career is just 9.8 over 4 1/2 seasons or so.  Pretty inconsistent. He does have age on his side.  On the other hand, had he put together another 4-5.5 free agency year, he wouldn’t be nearing our price range.

But these are the decisions that GM’s, not fans, are paid to get right more often than not.

Edited August 7, 2019 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

Ozuna’s struggling enough right now (1.6 fWAR) that he doesn’t warrant $20 million per season...he’s been above 4.5 twice but the rest of his career is just 9.8 over 4 1/2 seasons or so.  He does have age on his side.

So he's played 82 games this year because of injury due to a dive into a base on a pickoff move, doesn't have a history of being injury prone, and if he continues producing at the rate he has been without additional injury for the remainder of the season he's on pace for 2.6 fWAR this season and thus $21 million or so in value?

[BackDoorBreach]

Adding an actual major league player to RF like Ozuna would come out to like 5 or 6 WAR from this year.

Jay, Tilson, Cordell all significantly negative.  Addition by subtraction will be a nice change in 2020.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Adding an actual major league player to RF like Ozuna would come out to like 5 or 6 WAR from this year.

Jay, Tilson, Cordell all significantly negative.  Addition by subtraction will be a nice change in 2020.

Are you willing to do that and then go with McCann and Collins behind the plate rather than a FA acquisition, or are you willing to do that and then go with Cole Hamels as your main starting pitching addition?
 

That's the tradeoff right now. All of these guys make sense. All of these guys would be upgrades. We could technically do them all, but that leaves us no room for the future, so you have to pick 1 or 2 positions that are going to be your key acquisitions. Could we get by with someone who costs less or is older in RF for 1-2 years while waiting for additional OF help to arrive? Alex Gordon, or Kole Calhoun in a trade, maybe something crazy like Adam Jones moved over?