SoxTalk fan pulse: How far away are the Sox from competing?

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, Dan of Steel said:

What? Here was the lineup in 2015:

C Tyler Flowers
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Yolmer Sanchez
3B: Tyler Saladino
SS: Alexei Ramirez
LF: Melky Cabrera
CF: Adam Eaton
RF: Avi Garcia
DH: Adam LaRoche

That's a lineup consisting of only 3 players 25 y/o or young (Sanchez, Saladino and Garcia) of which, only Garcia had anything close to resembling high-level prospect hype. 

That lineup only had 3 players with an OPS above .700. That is beyond horrible. Eaton and Abreu were the only guys with above average OPS (.792 and .850 respectively).

To put that in perspective, this year's lineup has 6 players with OPS above .700.

The three in the lineup with sub .700 OPS? Ryan Cordell, Yolmer Sanchez and Yonder Alonzo. One guy will be relegated to utility man (best case) when Madrigal is called up. One guy is a spacefiller for a PTBNL at RF. The last name was released and is no longer on the team. 

The lineup as currently constructed, despite the holes, is already leagues better than 2015. You add Madrigral, Robert and a decent RF to that lineup? There's practically zero comparison. 

I didn't say the teams are the same...the results will be the same.  The comparison is simply that they are going for it before they are ready. Actually you made a better case to go for it in 2015 than exists in 2020.

And you seem to have forgotten the pitching which is the entire reason they can't go for it (with apologies to those who think RF is the greatest weakness on this team).

Look at last night's game.  The Sox used 3 pitchers, none of whom should be anywhere near a major league team, much less a contender:  Santiago, Covey, Ruiz (he's kind of a prospect, so maybe at some point).   Add Osich and Detwiler and probably Cordero (although he has some skills) and that is 6 pitchers short.  And the other pitchers, while good, aren't great.  How can you replace 6 pitchers plus depth in one year...especially when the Sox have no one in the minors who are anywhere ready (except for Kopech and maybe Dunning, both of whom are injured).

 

Edited August 7, 2019 by GreenSox

[caulfield12]

17 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So he's played 82 games this year because of injury due to a dive into a base on a pickoff move, doesn't have a history of being injury prone, and if he continues producing at the rate he has been without additional injury for the remainder of the season he's on pace for 2.6 fWAR this season and thus $21 million or so in value?

We’ll see if he finishes that well.  

Castellanos getting more exposure playing for the Cubs and into the postseason could give him a bump, too.

I guess it’s THE position that we have those 4-5 minor leaguers that could (at least one of them) give you similar production in two year’s time, so that it would be understandable not to give out a long-term deal, or Abreu at DH.  That said, even the biggest minor league cheerleaders would be hard pressed to make the case for any of those guys to reach a 4 or 5 fWAR season.  They’d probably pick Adolfo, which is about a 1/8 or 1/10 shot right now.

Grandal and quality veteran starting pitching are the biggest must have’s, unless Collins torches the majors somehow or McCann rallies to his April-June offensive numbers.  

Even then, you could see the beauty of having Grandal and Collins that could each play first...all three would fit together well on the roster.

At at any rate, you can find a Corey Dickerson type for RF and put the money you saved on Ozuna into the bullpen instead, similar to the moves for Dotel and Linebrink that worked well for at least one playoff run. 

Edited August 7, 2019 by caulfield12

[Dan of Steel]

7 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I didn't say the teams are the same...the results will be the same.  The comparison is simply that they are going for it before they are ready. Actually you made a better case to go for it in 2015 than exists in 2020.

And you seem to have forgotten the pitching which is the entire reason they can't go for it (with apologies to those who think RF is the greatest weakness on this team).

Look at last night's game.  The Sox used 3 pitchers, none of whom should be anywhere near a major league team, much less a contender:  Santiago, Covey, Ruiz (he's kind of a prospect, so maybe at some point).   Add Osich and Detwiler and probably Cordero (although he has some skills) and that is 6 pitchers short.  And the other pitchers, while good, aren't great.  How can you replace 6 pitchers plus depth in one year...especially when the Sox have no one in the minors who are anywhere ready (except for Kopech and maybe Dunning, both of whom are injured).

 

You're saying that if they invested in 2020, they would be going for it before they were ready. 

That is utter nonsense. 

There is no picking and choosing when the window opens. The window to compete begins in 2020, whether they want to "go for it" or not. The clock is ticking on their core players. Robert and Madrigal are inbound in 2020. Moncada, Anderson, Jimenez, etc. are under control. 

The Sox also have guys like Kopech, Dunning and Rodon who are currently on the IL but are expected back in 2020. 

It's nothing like 2015. This is already a better lineup, with incoming support to only make it better, and an impending insertion of Kopech at the very least, with several quality veteran arms available. 

The results for the year may be the same, and the team may underachieve, but it wouldn't be the same result. The Sox in 2015 were not built to get much better than they were. Their ceiling was in the mid 80's at best with the talent assembled, even accounting for peak Chris Sale and Quintana. 

The lineup should be stabilized in 2020, and the pitching staff has a ton of room to grow with returning players and young arms improving. 

Really it comes down to this. You think the Sox should hold off until 2021, but the fact is that the Sox can't afford to play it safe. 

[BackDoorBreach]

24 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Are you willing to do that and then go with McCann and Collins behind the plate rather than a FA acquisition, or are you willing to do that and then go with Cole Hamels as your main starting pitching addition?
 

That's the tradeoff right now. All of these guys make sense. All of these guys would be upgrades. We could technically do them all, but that leaves us no room for the future, so you have to pick 1 or 2 positions that are going to be your key acquisitions. Could we get by with someone who costs less or is older in RF for 1-2 years while waiting for additional OF help to arrive? Alex Gordon, or Kole Calhoun in a trade, maybe something crazy like Adam Jones moved over?

Our biggest needs are RF and starting pitching.  Grandal would be really nice and he could shift around from C/1B/DH but I think the FO will see him as a luxury and not a need.

There is no reason we can't get multiple premium FA's.  The arbitrary 140 mil payroll you proposed is just that.  If in 2021 we need a piece or 2 and the team is close I find it hard to believe that couldn't be bumped.  We might have tradeable assets by then too.

[Dan of Steel]

51 minutes ago, mqr said:

Not really fair to look at raw OPS in this environment. But OPS+ was 2 guys over 100 in 2015 vs 4 guys in 2019. Lineup is worse overall in 19 though. 

1) How is it "not fair"? OPS is OPS. What environment? The team plays in the same stadium as they did in 2015. 

2) You change it to OPS+, confirm that the lineup in 2019 has more guys with > 100 OPS+, yet you still conclude the lineup in 2019 is worse?

You want to use BA? OBP? SLG? OPS? This year's lineup is  better in all facets.  

[mqr]

12 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

1) How is it "not fair"? OPS is OPS. What environment? The team plays in the same stadium as they did in 2015. 

2) You change it to OPS+, confirm that the lineup in 2019 has more guys with > 100 OPS+, yet you still conclude the lineup in 2019 is worse?

You want to use BA? OBP? SLG? OPS? This year's lineup is  better in all facets.  

1)Because they’re playing with a super ball that they weren’t playing with in 2015. The average OPS is 40 points higher league wide.

2) there are more good hitters but the bad hitters are WAY worse. 

Edited August 7, 2019 by mqr

[Dan of Steel]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Now note that 2 of those guys - Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabreroid - had OPSs above .800 the year before the White Sox signed them. 

Then do the pitching staff.

LaRoche was an NL hitter and 35 years old when he signed. KW pulled an Adam Dunn 2 Electric Boogaloo. 

Pitching staff is an unfair comparison, since this group lost Kopech and Rodon to injury. The Sox will add Kopech to the rotation, bare minimum. Giolito is pitching at a level comparable to Sale or Quintana. Cease will continue to improve. Lopez appears to have fix his issues and is playing at a higher level. You add the possibility of adding a quality veteran arm via FA, then you have a fairer comparison regarding pitching rotations. Then combined with a superior lineup. 

[greg775]

38 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

You're saying that if they invested in 2020, they would be going for it before they were ready. 

That is utter nonsense. 

There is no picking and choosing when the window opens. The window to compete begins in 2020, whether they want to "go for it" or not. The clock is ticking on their core players. Robert and Madrigal are inbound in 2020. Moncada, Anderson, Jimenez, etc. are under control. 

The Sox also have guys like Kopech, Dunning and Rodon who are currently on the IL but are expected back in 2020. 

It's nothing like 2015. This is already a better lineup, with incoming support to only make it better, and an impending insertion of Kopech at the very least, with several quality veteran arms available. 

The results for the year may be the same, and the team may underachieve, but it wouldn't be the same result. The Sox in 2015 were not built to get much better than they were. Their ceiling was in the mid 80's at best with the talent assembled, even accounting for peak Chris Sale and Quintana. 

The lineup should be stabilized in 2020, and the pitching staff has a ton of room to grow with returning players and young arms improving. 

Really it comes down to this. You think the Sox should hold off until 2021, but the fact is that the Sox can't afford to play it safe. 

Dan of Steele with the A plus post. Keep 'em coming Dan. Nice post! Greg agrees.

[Dan of Steel]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

1)Because they’re playing with a super ball that they weren’t playing with in 2015. 

2) there are more good hitters but the bad hitters are WAY worse. 

Considering that the "juiced ball" theory is true, there is sufficient evidence that the change of ball composition took place in 2015. 

And as far as the whole "bad hitters were WAY worse" theory, no they're not. 

Saladino, Sanchez and LaRoche were horrendous in 2015. 

Both squads had holes in their lineup where the OPS dropped into the low .600 or even .500. However, the 2020 squad will not be relying on any of those players posting those stats minus perhaps Sanchez for a time before Madrigal arrives. The Sox had no in-house answers to improve catcher, 2B, 3B and DH that year. The Sox have in-house solutions to every position minus RF. 

[BackDoorBreach]

This group is going to be way better than that 2015 roster and it won't even be close.

Maybe not next year, but soon.

[mqr]

9 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

Both squads had holes in their lineup where the OPS dropped into the low .600 or even .500. However, the 2020 squad will not be relying on any of those players posting those stats minus perhaps Sanchez for a time before Madrigal arrives. The Sox had no in-house answers to improve catcher, 2B, 3B and DH that year. The Sox have in-house solutions to every position minus RF. 

I agree with all of this I was just making an observation

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Dan of Steel said:

You're saying that if they invested in 2020, they would be going for it before they were ready. 

That is utter nonsense. 

There is no picking and choosing when the window opens. The window to compete begins in 2020, whether they want to "go for it" or not. The clock is ticking on their core players. Robert and Madrigal are inbound in 2020. Moncada, Anderson, Jimenez, etc. are under control. 

The Sox also have guys like Kopech, Dunning and Rodon who are currently on the IL but are expected back in 2020. 

It's nothing like 2015. This is already a better lineup, with incoming support to only make it better, and an impending insertion of Kopech at the very least, with several quality veteran arms available. 

The results for the year may be the same, and the team may underachieve, but it wouldn't be the same result. The Sox in 2015 were not built to get much better than they were. Their ceiling was in the mid 80's at best with the talent assembled, even accounting for peak Chris Sale and Quintana. 

The lineup should be stabilized in 2020, and the pitching staff has a ton of room to grow with returning players and young arms improving. 

Really it comes down to this. You think the Sox should hold off until 2021, but the fact is that the Sox can't afford to play it safe. 

We’re exaggerating to say Giolito is going to end the year comparable to peak Sale, because that’s a surefire Hall of Fame pitcher prior to this season.   Unless you just go by his consecutive games winning stretch.

Quintana...sure.

[Dan of Steel]

8 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

We’re exaggerating to say Giolito is going to end the year comparable to peak Sale, because that’s a surefire Hall of Fame pitcher prior to this season.   Unless you just go by his consecutive games winning stretch.

Quintana...sure.

Going strictly by raw numbers during that season compared to this season.

Giolito is sitting at a 3.44 ERA on the year. 

Sale was at 3.41. 

Surprisingly, Quintana was even better that year, with a 3.36 ERA. 

 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, Dan of Steel said:

Going strictly by raw numbers during that season compared to this season.

Giolito is sitting at a 3.44 ERA on the year. 

Sale was at 3.41. 

Surprisingly, Quintana was even better that year, with a 3.36 ERA. 

 

Sale ended up with a 5.6 fWAR in 2015.  If Lucas Giolito goes over 5 this year, then I can agree with you.  ERA is only 1/3rd or or 1/4th of the story with a pitcher.

[Jack Parkman]

42 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Sale ended up with a 5.6 fWAR in 2015.  If Lucas Giolito goes over 5 this year, then I can agree with you.  ERA is only 1/3rd or or 1/4th of the story with a pitcher.

Giolito already has put up 3.7 fWAR. It isn't out of the question for him to get above 4.5. 

Edited August 8, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[TheFutureIsNear]

2021

 

we still need to add from outside of the organization: 

-top of the rotation stater 

-Well above average Starting RF

-Closer/really good RH bullpen arm

-Good defensive catcher to split time with McCann that isn’t a black hole in the lineup either 

-RH platoon to split DH with Collins

 

 

And that’s not even considering how many prospects/unestabliahed players we need to count on being good players. Some are going to inevitably fail or at least take a full year in the majors to work out their flaws. 

 

2021 roster in a perfect world

C- McCann/Free agent

1B- Vaughn

2B- Madrigal 

SS- TA

3B- Moncada

LF- Eloy

CF- Robert 

RF- Free Agent/Trade

DH- Collins/FA/Trade

 

SP- Free agent/Trade

SP- Gio

SP- Kopech

SP- Cease

SP- Lopez/Dunning

 

Backend of bullpen=

LH- Rodon and Bummer

RH- Free Agent/Trade

 

 

Edited August 8, 2019 by TheFutureIsNear

[ChiSox1917]

2020 IF...

1) They resign both McCann and Abreu (must's)

2) They add two bullpen arms.  Preferably RHP as Bummer and Fry are solid for lefties out of the pen, and even Osich is good enough.  This might actually be harder to do than the next two on the list because they're aren't a lot of good bullpen arms entering free agency.  I'd actually make Pedro Strop the #1 target here as his numbers are still pretty good minus the ERA this year.  

3) They add a TOR starter (most important).  Only viable candidates are Cole, MadBum, Wheeler, and Strasburg

4) They add some OF dept.  Leury should not be a starter, but would be a great guy to have rotate in to give the starters some rest.  Best case scenario is they get Castellanos or Ozuna.  I would not touch Puig personally.  

 

That's 4 FA signings.  Two big splashes.  Two Bullpen pieces.  If they do that, I would honestly be surprised if the team doesn't win 85 games next year.  

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, ChiSox1917 said:

2020 IF...

1) They resign both McCann and Abreu (must's)

2) They add two bullpen arms.  Preferably RHP as Bummer and Fry are solid for lefties out of the pen, and even Osich is good enough.  This might actually be harder to do than the next two on the list because they're aren't a lot of good bullpen arms entering free agency.  I'd actually make Pedro Strop the #1 target here as his numbers are still pretty good minus the ERA this year.  

3) They add a TOR starter (most important).  Only viable candidates are Cole, MadBum, Wheeler, and Strasburg

4) They add some OF dept.  Leury should not be a starter, but would be a great guy to have rotate in to give the starters some rest.  Best case scenario is they get Castellanos or Ozuna.  I would not touch Puig personally.  

 

That's 4 FA signings.  Two big splashes.  Two Bullpen pieces.  If they do that, I would honestly be surprised if the team doesn't win 85 games next year.  

Strop's fastball and stuff overall has seriously declined, Maddon really works his pen hard, and it's not a surprise that Edwards, Jr. burned out and Cishek is showing signs as well of faltering...but Strop is not unlike Herrera coming into this season.

Osich can't be relied upon to be in high leverage situations with a lead, thankfully, they at least have Bummer and Fry.

 

[Sarava]

I think there's a chance to compete next year with the right off-season moves. But I don't like the poll options, because I don't blame injuries. It's just the path of development for many guys is getting further along, and hopefully they will make an effort to plug holes this off-season, instead of being content with mediocre players filling some positions as they've done throughout the rebuild (guys like Covey, Sanchez, Engel, etc.).

[Sarava]

I think we all know the 2015 comparison was a not a good one. 

I don't want the Sox spending money just to spend money. And we definitely don't want them to blow their wad, to where they won't be able to afford keeping Moncada and/or Giolito in a few years. The right player and right value needs to be there. Unfortunately that right player was there last winter and they blew it.

But moving forward, if they could land an Ozuna and Wheeler, plus throw in a reliever or two to fill out the pen, I'd be pretty happy.How much the Sox compete next year largely depends on how quickly some of these high end prospects develop? Will Eloy right the ship and by how much? Does Robert struggle in his first season or is he an instant sensation? There's a lot of unknowns.

Here's one last question - do you bring back Ivan Nova, who is a free agent? He's been the Sox best pitcher (by far) since the all-star break.

And yes, the Sox certainly should be better in 2021 than next year, but that doesn't mean they can't be damn good next year. The time to go for it is upon us.

[Jack Parkman]

3 hours ago, Sarava said:

I think we all know the 2015 comparison was a not a good one. 

I don't want the Sox spending money just to spend money. And we definitely don't want them to blow their wad, to where they won't be able to afford keeping Moncada and/or Giolito in a few years. The right player and right value needs to be there. Unfortunately that right player was there last winter and they blew it.

But moving forward, if they could land an Ozuna and Wheeler, plus throw in a reliever or two to fill out the pen, I'd be pretty happy.How much the Sox compete next year largely depends on how quickly some of these high end prospects develop? Will Eloy right the ship and by how much? Does Robert struggle in his first season or is he an instant sensation? There's a lot of unknowns.

Here's one last question - do you bring back Ivan Nova, who is a free agent? He's been the Sox best pitcher (by far) since the all-star break.

And yes, the Sox certainly should be better in 2021 than next year, but that doesn't mean they can't be damn good next year. The time to go for it is upon us.

Yeah, I think you bring back Nova as the long man out of the bullpen and spot starter. He can take pressure off Kopech and they could even skip him a couple times and start Nova in his place. 

[Southwest Sider]

3 hours ago, Sarava said:

I think we all know the 2015 comparison was a not a good one. 

I don't want the Sox spending money just to spend money. And we definitely don't want them to blow their wad, to where they won't be able to afford keeping Moncada and/or Giolito in a few years. The right player and right value needs to be there. Unfortunately that right player was there last winter and they blew it.

But moving forward, if they could land an Ozuna and Wheeler, plus throw in a reliever or two to fill out the pen, I'd be pretty happy.How much the Sox compete next year largely depends on how quickly some of these high end prospects develop? Will Eloy right the ship and by how much? Does Robert struggle in his first season or is he an instant sensation? There's a lot of unknowns.

Here's one last question - do you bring back Ivan Nova, who is a free agent? He's been the Sox best pitcher (by far) since the all-star break.

And yes, the Sox certainly should be better in 2021 than next year, but that doesn't mean they can't be damn good next year. The time to go for it is upon us.

I'd bring back Nova on the super cheap and if he's okay with the possibility of being a 6th starter should Gio/Lopez/Kopech/Cease/Rodon be good enough at some point in the season. 

 

If he likes it here, I think there'd be a decent chance of that happening. Never a bad thing to have too much SP. 

[Greg Hibbard]

They will be in the hunt for the division all of next year. They are currently on pace to win 10 or 11 games more than last season, and that's with a rash of injuries. If we have a healthy Moncada, TA7, and Robert and Madrigal come up and inject major league numbers into replacement level placeholders, and if Kopech returns to form and Cease and Lopez are better, and if Giolito is still good we should win 85 games.

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

They will be in the hunt for the division all of next year. They are currently on pace to win 10 or 11 games more than last season, and that's with a rash of injuries. If we have a healthy Moncada, TA7, and Robert and Madrigal come up and inject major league numbers into replacement level placeholders, and if Kopech returns to form and Cease and Lopez are better, and if Giolito is still good we should win 85 games.

Only 8 “ifs” there...

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, Greg Hibbard said:

They will be in the hunt for the division all of next year. They are currently on pace to win 10 or 11 games more than last season, and that's with a rash of injuries. If we have a healthy Moncada, TA7, and Robert and Madrigal come up and inject major league numbers into replacement level placeholders, and if Kopech returns to form and Cease and Lopez are better, and if Giolito is still good we should win 85 games.

Did you know that the White Sox have used the 10th fewest IL games in the big leagues this season? And while the Yankees have spend a cumulative $57 million on the IL, the White Sox have spent just over $8 million - 3rd lowest in baseball? 

This is not a "rash of injuries", this is "a normal amount of injuries" and people need to expect that if they think we're competing next year. If you think this is enough injuries to derail your team, your team was not good in the first place. There's a good chance we're more banged up than this even though the team is young.