Abreu “as valuable as anything” to Sox: Merkin

[Balta1701]

22 minutes ago, scs787 said:

Yeah, Belt seems to be a horrible suggestion. I'd rather keep Jose for 2 years. Belt even the year before had an OPS just a touch over .750. Hoping he might be more than that, when you're hoping to compete seems like a bad idea. 

That touch over .750 OPS was also while playing 81 games in the very large San Francisco ballpark. That .756 OPS translated to an OPS+ (Park adjusted and scaled so that 100 is average) of 110. Jose Abreu's .795 OPS on this season has produced a 108 OPS+.

[ron883]

51 minutes ago, greg775 said:

That it's home run or strikeout, nothing else really needed.

If that wasn't the case Abreu wouldn't get ripped on for being a dogshit 1st baseman and having a dogshit OBP

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That touch over .750 OPS was also while playing 81 games in the very large San Francisco ballpark. That .756 OPS translated to an OPS+ (Park adjusted and scaled so that 100 is average) of 110. Jose Abreu's .795 OPS on this season has produced a 108 OPS+.

Would you rather acquire brandon belt for players + a 2 year, 34 million dollar deal to get back a slightly better OPS+, or would you just re-sign abreu for a likely discounted deal.

If we are going to replace Abreu let's get on with it then.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

Would you rather acquire brandon belt for players + a 2 year, 34 million dollar deal to get back a slightly better OPS+, or would you just re-sign abreu for a likely discounted deal.

If we are going to replace Abreu let's get on with it then.

Clearly Abreu on a 1-2 year deal remains fine with me now that people understand the level of hitter he is. 

Just responding to another example of people using stats in a way that is inappropriate. 

[ron883]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

Would you rather acquire brandon belt for players + a 2 year, 34 million dollar deal to get back a slightly better OPS+, or would you just re-sign abreu for a likely discounted deal.

If we are going to replace Abreu let's get on with it then.

You bring up a good point. Probably worth it just rolling with him for one more year at a big-time discount until Vaughn is ready. See what you've got within the org and pursue a DH in free agency next off-season if need be. 

[greg775]

6 hours ago, bmags said:

Would you rather acquire brandon belt for players + a 2 year, 34 million dollar deal to get back a slightly better OPS+, or would you just re-sign abreu for a likely discounted deal.

If we are going to replace Abreu let's get on with it then.

In answer to your question ... hell no I would not want Belt for a two year 34 million deal and players. You bring up a good question. I don't know your position on this but I'm very surprised some of the guys on the board do not believe in team leadership. I know all about Fake News and all that, but for years, decades one of the hottest topics surrounding teams (not just college and high school, but pro) is leadership: Coaches/managers are asked day after day by media: "Who is emerging as team leader? How is the team looking in terms of Leadership? ..."

Well we've got Abreu the best possible leader who is not making a ton of money and won't be making a (bleep)ton of money in his next 2-3 year deal.

It's a no brainer. We've already got superstars (IMO) in Moncada, Timmy, Eloy, Robert and projected superstars in Madrigal and Vaughn. I'm sure Hahn will sign somebody very very good or even keep Leury if Rutherford is a bust for RF.

So why in the hell would you replace a known LEADER in Abreu? Why? It makes absolutely no sense. You think he's not worth his next contract in his ability alone to work with young Cuban players? You think it's easy to come over here and excel when not even knowing the language? It's a lot easier and more fun when you've got a class act like Jose Abreu showing young Cuban players the way.

The only reason you'd not bring him back as our glue guy (with McCann) is you fear he is ready to pull a Konerko (late Konerko) and suddenly became unable to hit .200. Or he'll become a Fisk (late Fisk) and suddenly not be able to catch the ball. For some reason I get the feeling some posters think he's going to suddenly go from an All-Star to one of the worst players in baseball just because the calendar moves a few months. Folks, the man is going to get a 2 or 3 year deal and that's it!! It's not like u are signing Pujols for 7 more years.

 The suggested upgrade you get to replace Abreu is NOT WORTH the danger of wrecking team chemistry or impeding team chemistry. It's obvious the pitchers love McCann from the dugout shots; it;'s obvious Jose is mentoring the young talent! It's obvious! So keep both.

And if Vaughn is so much better than Jose NOW, fine. Jose can grudgingly accept being the DH or splitting DH/1B with Vaughn.

Thanks for your time.

Please read this post 3 times before commenting. I think it will grow on you and you will see my point. I have some points and am not just throwing out praise like a certain poster throws out disdain on Jose!

Edited August 15, 2019 by greg775

[vilehoopster]

7 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Except the author works for the White Sox and would lose his job quickly if he even suggested the White Sox should think about moving him to DH to make way for a better/younger LH hitting defender at 1B.

And who would this younger better LH hitter be? 

Well, A. J. Reed is younger and left handed. Great idea!! Let's have Reed with his .143 average in Charlotte replace Abreu and his 86 RBIs. 

No good?  Let's go to AA and go with Sheets. He's a lefty and sporting a fine .269 BA and .759 OPS in AA

How about Vaugh and his .267 BA. Well, he does have a OPS of .842 down there in A ball, but he's a righty, so no. 

You guys kill me. Why is Abreu no good just because he's older? Younger is not necessarily better, and certainly not in the three people I just listed. Maybe in a couple years, Vaughn might be better, but we don't know that. Think Collins or Fulmer. 

Plus I am tired of you guys saying he's bad defensively like it's a fact. He throws well above average for a 1st baseman, and how many errors has he saved for Moncada and Anderson by digging hops out of the dirt. Can any of these younger guys, right now, listed above, do that as well as Abreu? Of course not. 

[Balta1701]

24 minutes ago, vilehoopster said:

Plus I am tired of you guys saying he's bad defensively like it's a fact. He throws well above average for a 1st baseman, and how many errors has he saved for Moncada and Anderson by digging hops out of the dirt. Can any of these younger guys, right now, listed above, do that as well as Abreu? Of course not. 

The White Sox are by far worst in the league in errors from their SS position and in the bottom 1/3 of the league in errors from 3b. Perhaps you're right and the problem is the 1st baseman.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

22 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Baseball wide, the average OPS for 1st basemen this season is .797 (including backups). I guess for a 1b who is a good baserunner and a solid defender that average OPS is ok. 

Forget good baserunning even... A 3b with a 800ish OPS paired with very good defense and below average base running is worth $300M on the open market (the average OPS for 3b league wide is nearly identical to 1b this season btw).

[caulfield12]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31

The 1B ahead of Abreu.  He’s 17/23.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31

9 DH’s with a positive value.  Arguably, only JD Martinez and Meadows weren’t available to the Sox in the last 2-3 seasons.

 

 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Forget good baserunning even... A 3b with a 800ish OPS paired with very good defense and below average base running is worth $300M on the open market (the average OPS for 3b league wide is nearly identical to 1b this season btw).

Yes, when that player is only 26 (compared to the average free agent being 31) and has averaged 5.4 fWAR the last four seasons.  

That’s the game today, and the same reason Heyward and Harper got the contracts that they did.

 

Do you honestly think the White Sox have been better picking Tier B/C/D free agents off the bargain rack?

Edited August 15, 2019 by caulfield12

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

13 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Yes, when that player is only 26 (compared to the average free agent being 31) and has averaged 5.4 fWAR the last four seasons.  

That’s the game today, and the same reason Heyward and Harper got the contracts that they did.

 

Do you honestly think the White Sox have been better picking Tier B/C/D free agents off the bargain rack?

Balta said a 1b with a 800ish OPS is “ok” with good baserunning, and solid defense. My point is that’s much better than “ok.” That’s likely a 3-4 WAR player and that type of player is worth a lot on the open market even if they are 31 years old.

Btw, Machado is down to 110 wRC+ this season, pretty much in line with Abreu. The only thing separating him is defensive value. Abreu hitting like he is with good baserunning and solid defense would be a very valuable player. Not $300M valuable even if he were 26/27 years old (Manny isn’t worth that either) but still valuable nonetheless.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Balta said a 1b with a 800ish OPS is “ok” with good baserunning, and solid defense. My point is that’s much better than “ok.” That’s likely a 3-4 WAR player and that type of player is worth a lot on the open market even if they are 31 years old.

However, what you seem to be missing that was subtly in there is that Abreu's defense and baserunning are both bad.

A "middle of the league" 1b who is weak defensively and weak on the basepaths is a 0-2 WAR player, and hey that's what Abreu's been the last 2 years.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

However, what you seem to be missing that was subtly in there is that Abreu's defense and baserunning are both bad.

A "middle of the league" 1b who is weak defensively and weak on the basepaths is a 0-2 WAR player, and hey that's what Abreu's been the last 2 years.

I agree. But a good base runner, solid defensive 1b that posts 800 OPS is better than ok. That’s quite good in fact. Abreu is best served as a DH but needs to be in the mid 800s to be valuable as a full time DH.

[Balta1701]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I agree. But a good base runner, solid defensive 1b that posts 800 OPS is better than ok. That’s quite good in fact. Abreu is best served as a DH but needs to be in the mid 800s to be valuable as a full time DH.

After 2 seasons of near .800 OPS, I mean anything's possible but there's no good reason to think that he'll suddenly get better at any of those things.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

After 2 seasons of near .800 OPS, I mean anything's possible but there's no good reason to think that he'll suddenly get better at any of those things.

He’s a career 859 OPS so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him in the 835-850 next season. Most people thought Paulie was done at a similar age back in 2008.

[Balta1701]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

He’s a career 859 OPS so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him in the 835-850 next season. Most people thought Paulie was done at a similar age back in 2008.

So are you willing to pay him based on what "wouldn't be shocking"?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

So are you willing to pay him based on what "wouldn't be shocking"?

I’m willing to pay him 2 years at $12M AAV because I believe there is still upside in his bat and what better options do the Sox have?

[Steve9347]

On 8/13/2019 at 10:40 PM, Balta1701 said:

Your opinion that 90+ loss seasons are fine continues to baffle me.

I don't come 'round here often. But when I do, I see people are still taking Greg bait.

[Greg Hibbard]

I don't really understand people who DON'T want Abreu back in a DH-only role.

Given all the issues we have had since 2011 finding a consistent DH, it seems like as streaky as he is, Abreu can be counted on to reliably deliver an .800ish OPS. It's not like those grow on trees, or that they come without cost. We would either need to sign a FA DH for a similar amount of money as a DH or slot in one of our relatively unproven kids like Collins as DH (not Eloy - he still belongs in the field with Robert's range being huge and as long as he calls him off a lot).

He makes the most sense here, he wants to be back, we want him back. Even if they overpay, who fucking cares? Reinsdorf has billions and you're crazy if you think $10 or $12 million a year makes a big difference. He might make the fans feel that way, but all of these owners could afford $500 million dollar payrolls even if they treat their fanbases like they can't afford it.

Edited August 15, 2019 by Greg Hibbard

[greg775]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

However, what you seem to be missing that was subtly in there is that Abreu's defense and baserunning are both bad.

A "middle of the league" 1b who is weak defensively and weak on the basepaths is a 0-2 WAR player, and hey that's what Abreu's been the last 2 years.

I'm glad I don't live in the stat world that says Abreu is a blah to bad player. Wow. My stat world has him what baseball world common folk regular stat peeps say he is AN ALL STAR BABY!

Edited August 15, 2019 by greg775

[greg775]

38 minutes ago, Steve9347 said:

I don't come 'round here often. But when I do, I see people are still taking Greg bait.

You are crazy IMO. Fact: People are bagging on Abreu in this and other threads. Fact: I worship the guy in a baseball sense. Fact: I battle back and support the guy. Some of my defenses of him are short; some longer. Few get any comments at all except the cold hard advanced stats that deny the intangibles and the fact he's an all-star who is not that old yet. Two years 26 million with a team option Year Three. Why not? I've already listed posts on what our lineup should look like.

[greg775]

25 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

I don't really understand people who DON'T want Abreu back in a DH-only role.

Given all the issues we have had since 2011 finding a consistent DH, it seems like as streaky as he is, Abreu can be counted on to reliably deliver an .800ish OPS. It's not like those grow on trees, or that they come without cost. We would either need to sign a FA DH for a similar amount of money as a DH or slot in one of our relatively unproven kids like Collins as DH (not Eloy - he still belongs in the field with Robert's range being huge and as long as he calls him off a lot).

He makes the most sense here, he wants to be back, we want him back. Even if they overpay, who fucking cares? Reinsdorf has billions and you're crazy if you think $10 or $12 million a year makes a big difference. He might make the fans feel that way, but all of these owners could afford $500 million dollar payrolls even if they treat their fanbases like they can't afford it.

This is pretty much my position as well.

[zisk]

I'd extend him for 1 year at 10-13 million, and then thank him for his service. He's been good for the Sox, but his days are numbered.

P.S. Throw him a Jose Abreu appreciation day. Heck of a good guy, and he deserves it.

[BackDoorBreach]

I think the whole Cuban Ambassador thing is highly over blown.  Almost the entire team is native Spanish speaking.  And "leadership" in baseball is kind of a meme.  He's not worth 2 or 3 years to be a Spanish speaking clubhouse guy.  

Give him 1 year.  If he wants 2 years make it a club option.