greg775 Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 12 hours ago, ron883 said: I would say I do. I grew up with computers at my disposal during the baseball statistic revolution. Old time baseball guys are slower to adapt to modern baseball statistics. I probably have better knowledge of it than Stoney. While I don't know the inner workings of a clubhouse or how life on a major league club is, I think I know more than him, all things considered Greg, if you can get me in contact with Stone Pony, I'll tell him RBIs don't matter to his face. Guess what? You are not smarter than Stone. Nobody on this board is more baseball savvy than Stone. Now I've seen and read it all. If any other posters want to say they are smarter than Stone, do so here so I can make a list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moan4Yoan Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 3 hours ago, greg775 said: Guess what? You are not smarter than Stone. Nobody on this board is more baseball savvy than Stone. Now I've seen and read it all. If any other posters want to say they are smarter than Stone, do so here so I can make a list. I think I know what Ron is getting at. I have heard Stone say countless times that ERA doesn’t matter for a closer. It drives me nuts everytime Stone says it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 On 8/16/2019 at 10:47 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said: 1 year DH around $10 M . Yea pay him. Wasn't it you who said our DH's this year have an OPS in the .580 range ? Abreu would be a nice upgrade for about what we paid Alonso this year. I agree with your take on this. Additionally consider moving him down in the batting order when Robert joins the mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, poppysox said: I agree with your take on this. Additionally consider moving him down in the batting order when Robert joins the mix. Robert's avg. took a dive when they put him in the 3rd spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, kitekrazy said: Robert's avg. took a dive when they put him in the 3rd spot. I'm not suggesting Robert in the third spot. Robert gives you a top of order hitter allowing Moncada to hit third with Eloy or McCann fourth and Jose 5 th or some such variation. Jose chases to much crapola thinking he needs to do it all himself IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kitekrazy Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, poppysox said: I'm not suggesting Robert in the third spot. Robert gives you a top of order hitter allowing Moncada to hit third with Eloy or McCann fourth and Jose 5 th or some such variation. Jose chases to much crapola thinking he needs to do it all himself IMO. I'm surprised the amount of RBI's Abreau has when Ricky uses the worst hitter in the 4th spot. Why pitch to him when the next guy up is a much easier out. Edited August 19, 2019 by kitekrazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 minute ago, kitekrazy said: I'm surprised the amount of RBI's Abreau has when Ricky uses the worst hitter in the 4th spot. Why pitch to him when the next guy up is a much easier out. Ricky doesn't worry about protecting a hitter. He believes in lefty/righty. Soon we will have so many good hitters that Ricky won't be able to jazz it up to much. We will be able to draw the lineup out of a hat and it will still look potent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Moan4Yoan said: I think I know what Ron is getting at. I have heard Stone say countless times that ERA doesn’t matter for a closer. It drives me nuts everytime Stone says it. I didn't hear it but I know what Stone is getting at obviously. Let's say Sox lead by 3 in the ninth and Colome gives up two. Big deal. We win. Let's say he's being used just to get some work and gets rocked. Big deal and ERA explodes. How many times have you seen stuff like that? But if we are up by one and he retires the side ... that's the value, not the overall ERA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caulfield12 Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 2 hours ago, poppysox said: Ricky doesn't worry about protecting a hitter. He believes in lefty/righty. Soon we will have so many good hitters that Ricky won't be able to jazz it up to much. We will be able to draw the lineup out of a hat and it will still look potent. Except how do you explain Castillo hitting after Abreu? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Except how do you explain Castillo hitting after Abreu? Isn't that normally with a lefty on the mound? If so, it doesn't apply here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 (edited) 9 minutes ago, caulfield12 said: Except how do you explain Castillo hitting after Abreu? It is a fools errand trying to explain what Ricky does and why. I hope no explanation will be necessary next year concerning Castillo hitting anywhere in a WS lineup. Edited August 20, 2019 by poppysox 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 15 hours ago, Moan4Yoan said: I think I know what Ron is getting at. I have heard Stone say countless times that ERA doesn’t matter for a closer. It drives me nuts everytime Stone says it. I mean he's right, ERA doesn't matter for any reliever unless they're the type that pitches multiple innings every outing, and even then it doesn't hold much weight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFutureIsNear Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Can we all just agree that Jose is in obvious decline, but is still a slightly above average 1B/DH? Therefore the front office should be looking for an upgrade, but if not able to do so circling back and signing Jose to a cheap 1 year deal is perfectly fine... Reasonable middle of the road opinions are possible... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 (edited) 16 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said: Can we all just agree that Jose is in obvious decline, but is still a slightly above average 1B/DH? Therefore the front office should be looking for an upgrade, but if not able to do so circling back and signing Jose to a cheap 1 year deal is perfectly fine... Reasonable middle of the road opinions are possible... I can get on board with this. Well said. I think we can all agree on this. Edited August 20, 2019 by ron883 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 4 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said: Can we all just agree that Jose is in obvious decline, but is still a slightly above average 1B/DH? Therefore the front office should be looking for an upgrade, but if not able to do so circling back and signing Jose to a cheap 1 year deal is perfectly fine... Reasonable middle of the road opinions are possible... Defensively he's terrible. However, if we are just strictly speaking offense here, why is it "obvious decline"? I don't exactly agree with that. Maybe "slight decline". His batting average is 20 points below his career average, and his on base is 30 points below career average, but his BABIP is also 20 points below his career average. His K% is slightly up (something like 2%). I would say accounting for his BABIP, he's right about where you would expect him to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thad Bosley Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said: Defensively he's terrible. However, if we are just strictly speaking offense here, why is it "obvious decline"? I don't exactly agree with that. Maybe "slight decline". His batting average is 20 points below his career average, and his on base is 30 points below career average, but his BABIP is also 20 points below his career average. His K% is slightly up (something like 2%). I would say accounting for his BABIP, he's right about where you would expect him to be. Thank you for introducing some reasonable perspective into this discussion. You would imagine Jose is registering an Adam Dunn 2011esque season this year, the way some are carrying on. Put him at DH primarily in seasons going forward, and then there is little or nothing to complain about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFutureIsNear Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Greg Hibbard said: Defensively he's terrible. However, if we are just strictly speaking offense here, why is it "obvious decline"? I don't exactly agree with that. Maybe "slight decline". His batting average is 20 points below his career average, and his on base is 30 points below career average, but his BABIP is also 20 points below his career average. His K% is slightly up (something like 2%). I would say accounting for his BABIP, he's right about where you would expect him to be. Why skip over his slg%? And we are talking about a 1000 AB sample size...at some point it’s not luck and he is what he is. No? Are you really going into next season thinking that a 30+ year old hitter is going to buck a 1000+ AB trend and go back to what he was? Hell, if you really want to be honest about Jose...add his ‘16, ‘18 and ‘19 seasons together and you have a slightly above average 1B. Those seasons are rapidly adding to the seasons where he has been really good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said: Why skip over his slg%? And we are talking about a 1000 AB sample size...at some point it’s not luck and he is what he is. No? Are you really going into next season thinking that a 30+ year old hitter is going to buck a 1000+ AB trend and go back to what he was? Hell, if you really want to be honest about Jose...add his ‘16, ‘18 and ‘19 seasons together and you have a slightly above average 1B. Those seasons are rapidly adding to the seasons where he has been really good. We're talking about a 1000 AB sample size in which 500 AB of it was Jose being dinged up by various injuries all of last year - and still producing just fine, all things considered. If we're REALLY going to be honest about Jose, he's been remarkably consistent in the 5 years after his rookie year. Yes, there's been some deviation, but post ROY he is what he is - basically a .290/.320/.500/.820 reliable piece of offense. That's basically what he is this year too, accounting for his BABIP. I really do NOT buy into the theory that 32 year old Jose Abreu is somehow remarkably different offensively from 29 or 30 year old Abreu. I do buy into the theory that 27 year old Abreu was a different hitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said: Can we all just agree that Jose is in obvious decline, but is still a slightly above average 1B/DH? Therefore the front office should be looking for an upgrade, but if not able to do so circling back and signing Jose to a cheap 1 year deal is perfectly fine... Reasonable middle of the road opinions are possible... I don't think I agree with that, but the marketplace will decide I guess. Signing him to a "cheap one year deal" seems dis-respectful to me. I guess you could be right that he won't sign for much. I assume you guys don't want Moustakas or Nelson Cruz, either. Here's their contract situations for similar production. Moose, 30, is making 10 million this year on a one year deal. He has 30 homers 71 RBI; Cruz is making 14.3 with a club option for 12 million for 2020. He's age 39. I would guess Abreu at 32 can expect about 10 mill a year for two years with club option year three if those two guys provide a good example. Or if you are right, one year 8 million and he'll be on one-year deals the rest of his career. BTW at age 35 Gordon maker 18 mill this year for his 12 homers and 63 RBI. I would guess he won't receive a contract offer from anybody in the new baseball world. If he does, one year 3.5 million; John Jay territory. Personally I think the Sox should sign Abreu for 2 years and a team option for 3 at 12-13 mill a year. Even if Abreu is finished, which seems a silly notion, the 12-13 million a year for two years isn't going to break the Sox budget. My conclusion: If I'm right ... he gets two years 24-26 mill to be a White Sox with club option year three. Maybe a few incentives. If you are right, he's on one-year deals. The first one 7-8 mill a year. Maybe one year 7 million with team option. I can't imagine him accepting that but we shall see. Edited August 20, 2019 by greg775 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFutureIsNear Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said: We're talking about a 1000 AB sample size in which 500 AB of it was Jose being dinged up by various injuries all of last year - and still producing just fine, all things considered. If we're REALLY going to be honest about Jose, he's been remarkably consistent in the 5 years after his rookie year. Yes, there's been some deviation, but post ROY he is what he is - basically a .290/.320/.500/.820 reliable piece of offense. That's basically what he is this year too, accounting for his BABIP. I really do NOT buy into the theory that 32 year old Jose Abreu is somehow remarkably different offensively from 29 or 30 year old Abreu. I do buy into the theory that 27 year old Abreu was a different hitter. I guess the part we disagree on is any team with World Series aspirations being happy with a slow footed DH that barely maintains an .800 OPS. Like I said earlier, if other options are exhausted and we can’t find a better hitter we can certainly do worse than circling back around and keeping Jose. Jose is in no way a bad hitter...I just don’t think he’s much (if any) above average for a player with his skill set at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said: I guess the part we disagree on is any team with World Series aspirations being happy with a slow footed DH that barely maintains an .800 OPS. Like I said earlier, if other options are exhausted and we can’t find a better hitter we can certainly do worse than circling back around and keeping Jose. Jose is in no way a bad hitter...I just don’t think he’s much (if any) above average for a player with his skill set at this point. And will be a year older. His BABIP is down because his batted ball profile is becoming more pull and ground ball oriented. I'm not going to bother posting his ZIPS projections any more but people should look at them. He's projected at a 1 WAR 1B next year. He's aging right off a cliff. He's not going to get better without serious vitamins. I'd honestly suggest he try some. Edited August 20, 2019 by chitownsportsfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 (edited) 18 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said: I guess the part we disagree on is any team with World Series aspirations being happy with a slow footed DH that barely maintains an .800 OPS. Like I said earlier, if other options are exhausted and we can’t find a better hitter we can certainly do worse than circling back around and keeping Jose. Jose is in no way a bad hitter...I just don’t think he’s much (if any) above average for a player with his skill set at this point. Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't this table when sorted by DH indicate that only three MLB teams have more than 1 WAR at the DH position? I know half those teams are NL, but this seems to indicate that a 1 WAR at DH is perfectly acceptable. EDIT: oops, this is WAA, not WAR. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2019 Edited August 20, 2019 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said: Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't this table when sorted by DH indicate that only three MLB teams have more than 1 WAR at the DH position? I know half those teams are NL, but this seems to indicate that a 1 WAR at DH is perfectly acceptable. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2019 You're looking at WAA not WAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 (edited) This is the WAR table https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2019 Edited August 20, 2019 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 The WAR table seems to indicate that anything over 1.1 is above AL league average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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