Abreu “as valuable as anything” to Sox: Merkin

[greg775]

Would you guys want Moustakas to take over at first next year for say 15 mill a year 3 years? That would get that one done. He's 30.

I'm at the point I am ready to bid farewell to Jose because I'm not quite ready to stop posting and I pretty much am sick of the blah to mean attitudes expressed toward him on here. Hopefully he'll sign with Boston like Sale and have a fine postseason career the next 5 years or so.

Good luck to you guys and Hahn finding a good replacement.

Just out of curiosity, what do you all think of trading for Hosmer? Surely you are not in favor of his 18 homers and 82 RBIs being worth 18 mill a season for 6-7 more seasons. And he's a great defensive player. My point is good luck finding your next all star first baseman.

(Don't you guys see that in not wanting Abreu you are saying you want a star at every position? this guy is not good enough for you all despite being known as one of the best leaders we have who is still producing nicely with the bat. You want an upgrade. I can't wait to see who our upgrade is.

Peace to you all; you just drive me crazy is the problem.

 

Edited August 20, 2019 by greg775

[GermanSoxFan]

21 hours ago, kitekrazy said:

I'm surprised the amount of RBI's Abreau has when Ricky uses the worst hitter in the 4th spot.  Why pitch to him when the next guy up is a much easier out. 

There has been some statistical analysis that suggests that lineup protection is a myth.

[chitownsportsfan]

9 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

The WAR table seems to indicate that anything over 1.1 is above AL league average.

Not sure what you're looking at but the Sox have gotten -.8 bWAR from their DH spot this year, that includes over 120 PA from Jose there.  That's dead last in MLB.  DH is a HUGE spot to upgrade going into next season and Jose is a part of that.

[BackDoorBreach]

7 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

There has been some statistical analysis that suggests that lineup protection is a myth.

Found Bernsteins burner account.

[Greg Hibbard]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Not sure what you're looking at but the Sox have gotten -.8 bWAR from their DH spot this year, that includes over 120 PA from Jose there.  That's dead last in MLB.  DH is a HUGE spot to upgrade going into next season and Jose is a part of that.

the top 8 teams have a 1.6 or better WAR production out of the DH slot, the bottom 7 AL teams have 1.1 or less. I suppose 1.6 bWAR is currently AL League Average. I would be happy with basically AL league average production out of DH, considering that we are getting great offensive production out of so many other positions next year with even more help coming during the year.

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

the top 8 teams have a 1.6 or better WAR production out of the DH slot, the bottom 7 AL teams have 1.1 or less. I suppose 1.6 bWAR is currently AL League Average. I would be happy with basically AL league average production out of DH, considering that we are getting great offensive production out of so many other positions next year with even more help coming during the year.

And with a wRC+ of 107 as a full time DH Jose won't sniff 2.0 fWAR.  He'll be closer to .5 fWAR.

[mqr]

10 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Found Bernsteins burner account.

Or just someone who's read up on the matter

[Greg Hibbard]

8 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

And with a wRC+ of 107 as a full time DH Jose won't sniff 2.0 fWAR.  He'll be closer to .5 fWAR.

Looking at Jose's peripherals, it doesn't seem like much has changed to indicate he's suddenly gone south.

Is it possible that his last two seasons his low BABIP has worked to depress his numbers?

Also, do you think with a stronger lineup Jose's numbers would improve?

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Looking at Jose's peripherals, it doesn't seem like much has changed to indicate he's suddenly gone south.

Is it possible that his last two seasons his low BABIP has worked to depress his numbers?

Also, do you think with a stronger lineup Jose's numbers would improve?

I really don't.  His batted ball data (and just watching him) indicates a guy selling out out for power but losing his ability to hit for average -- without a big enough bump in power to make it a worthy trade.

Classic aging slugger profile and without the juice these guys fall off a cliff around 32-34 quite often.

Just to go on the record I'm fine with 1 year 10 million.  Anything, and I do mean anything more, is a horrendous overpay and indicates this franchise has learned NOTHING from the last decade of player evaluations.

Edited August 20, 2019 by chitownsportsfan

[mqr]

6 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I really don't.  His batted ball data (and just watching him) indicates a guy selling out out for power but losing his ability to hit for average -- without a big enough bump in power to make it a worthy trade.

 Classic aging slugger profile and without the juice these guys fall off a cliff around 32-34 quite often.

Just to go on the record I'm fine with 1 year 10 million.  Anything, and I do mean anything more, is a horrendous overpay and indicates this franchise has learned NOTHING from the last decade of player evaluations.

100% agree. Nelson Cruz hit substantially better in 2018 than abreu in 2019 and got 1 year 14 mil with an option. Granted he's older but not in any kind of meaningful way. 

Edited August 20, 2019 by mqr

[Jose Abreu]

9 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I really don't.  His batted ball data (and just watching him) indicates a guy selling out out for power but losing his ability to hit for average -- without a big enough bump in power to make it a worthy trade.

 Classic aging slugger profile and without the juice these guys fall off a cliff around 32-34 quite often.

Just to go on the record I'm fine with 1 year 10 million.  Anything, and I do mean anything more, is a horrendous overpay and indicates this franchise has learned NOTHING from the last decade of player evaluations.

I highly doubt Abreu gets anything more than $10 million AAV from us anyway. The people who are against him because they think he's about to get 3/50 or something are gonna be in for a surprise. 

[GermanSoxFan]

15 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Looking at Jose's peripherals, it doesn't seem like much has changed to indicate he's suddenly gone south.

Is it possible that his last two seasons his low BABIP has worked to depress his numbers?

Also, do you think with a stronger lineup Jose's numbers would improve?

If you can‘t quantify something in baseball, it very likely doesn‘t exist.

There is a reason the stat revolution happened first in baseball. It’s the easiest sport to apply mathematical analysis.

 I have yet to see a convincing argument for the existence of the hitters around someone making someone perform better offensively.

[Greg Hibbard]

1 minute ago, GermanSoxFan said:

If you can‘t quantify something in baseball, it very likely doesn‘t exist.

There is a reason the stat revolution happened first in baseball. It’s the easiest sport to apply mathematical analysis.

 I have yet to see a convincing argument for the existence of the hitters around someone making someone perform better offensively.

Farmer and DJ have recently said that Jose simply wasn’t getting balls in the zone at all and that the difference was that he was swinging at the first pitch out of the zone and now he’s taking ball 1. Castillo and Alonso hitting behind Abreu wasn’t just inappropriate, it seemed exploitable beyond an all star having a league average hitter behind them. 

[mqr]

4 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

If you can‘t quantify something in baseball, it very likely doesn‘t exist.

There is a reason the stat revolution happened first in baseball. It’s the easiest sport to apply mathematical analysis.

 I have yet to see a convincing argument for the existence of the hitters around someone making someone perform better offensively.

The only argument for it that I've seen is that players/coaches say it exists, therefore it does. But if it doesn't show up in the numbers, and it doesn't, who cares?

[mqr]

2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Farmer and DJ have recently said that Jose simply wasn’t getting balls in the zone at all and that the difference was that he was swinging at the first pitch out of the zone and now he’s taking ball 1. Castillo and Alonso hitting behind Abreu wasn’t just inappropriate, it seemed exploitable beyond an all star having a league average hitter behind them. 

Abreu is swinging less at pitches out of the zone and less pitches in general than when he was actually good.

Edited August 20, 2019 by mqr

[GermanSoxFan]

2 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

Farmer and DJ have recently said that Jose simply wasn’t getting balls in the zone at all and that the difference was that he was swinging at the first pitch out of the zone and now he’s taking ball 1. Castillo and Alonso hitting behind Abreu wasn’t just inappropriate, it seemed exploitable beyond an all star having a league average hitter behind them. 

If that was correct he should be walking more. But he isn‘t, in fact his walk rate is down. If anything that‘s a knock on Abreu‘s strike zone judgement.

[Buehrle>Wood]

If we overpay Jose Abreu by a few millions of dollars, who gives a shit? Its Jose Abreu. Hes likeable and one of the bigger stars the sox have had the past couple decades. They're not spending all this money anyways, may as well give the extras over. It's not like were talking about Adam Laroche.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

If we overpay Jose Abreu by a few millions of dollars, who gives a shit? Its Jose Abreu. Hes likeable and one of the bigger stars the sox have had the past couple decades. They're not spending all this money anyways, may as well give the extras over. It's not like were talking about Adam Laroche.

Amen

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

If we overpay Jose Abreu by a few millions of dollars, who gives a shit? Its Jose Abreu. Hes likeable and one of the bigger stars the sox have had the past couple decades. They're not spending all this money anyways, may as well give the extras over. It's not like were talking about Adam Laroche.

You just saw a person say they'd be angry at anything over 1 year, $10 million. If it's 1 year, $12 million, I'm personally not going to be all that mad. But the question does arise - if they start adding extra years, it's not a few million dollars any more, it's tens of millions of dollars and a commitment into an extra year. So, each person has to draw their line - where do they say "no this is crazy why are we doing this". 

[GermanSoxFan]

2 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

If we overpay Jose Abreu by a few millions of dollars, who gives a shit? Its Jose Abreu. Hes likeable and one of the bigger stars the sox have had the past couple decades. They're not spending all this money anyways, may as well give the extras over. It's not like were talking about Adam Laroche.

Fun fact:  Adam LaRoche had a better year when the Sox signed him. And he was a better defensive player-

[mqr]

1 minute ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

If we overpay Jose Abreu by a few millions of dollars, who gives a shit? Its Jose Abreu. Hes likeable and one of the bigger stars the sox have had the past couple decades. They're not spending all this money anyways, may as well give the extras over. It's not like were talking about Adam Laroche.

I would just like to point out that Adam Laroche was a better player his last year in Washington than Jose has been in 2019

[Buehrle>Wood]

 

3 minutes ago, mqr said:

I would just like to point out that Adam Laroche was a better player his last year in Washington than Jose has been in 2019

 

4 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

Fun fact:  Adam LaRoche had a better year when the Sox signed him. And he was a better defensive player-

And I guess you guys missed the point. I dont think many even minded the laroche deal at the time, but the dude was an unlikable dickhead, the opposite of Abreu. If Abreu busts next year theres not going to be some vitriol about him years later. Like shit, we gave one of franchise players some millions that we had sitting around anyways to retire with, oh no.

Edited August 20, 2019 by Buehrle>Wood

[mqr]

3 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

 

 

And I guess you guys missed the point. I dont think many even minded the laroche deal at the time, but the dude was an unlikable dickhead, the opposite of Abreu. If Abreu busts next year theres not going to be some vitriol about him years later. Like shit, we gave one of franchise players some millions that we had sitting around anyways to retire with, oh no.

I want to be able to cut bait from a useless player as soon as possible, not be stuck with him multiple years like they would have been with LaRoche. Like they are with Wellington Castillo. Anything more than a year and I'm out. The actual salary I'm not so worried about. 

Jose's not quite useless, but he's getting there and very easily could completely crater at pretty much any time. 

Edited August 20, 2019 by mqr

[chitownsportsfan]

3 minutes ago, Buehrle>Wood said:

 

 

And I guess you guys missed the point. I dont think many even minded the laroche deal at the time, but the dude was an unlikable dickhead, the opposite of Abreu. If Abreu busts next year theres not going to be some vitriol about him years later. Like shit, we gave one of franchise players some millions that we had sitting around anyways to retire with, oh no.

I don't care if he's a saint off the field if he can't produce.  And if a stud producer is a jerk as long as he's not hitting women or driving drunk all the time I'm completely cool with jerks.

[Dick Allen]

13 minutes ago, GermanSoxFan said:

If you can‘t quantify something in baseball, it very likely doesn‘t exist.

There is a reason the stat revolution happened first in baseball. It’s the easiest sport to apply mathematical analysis.

 I have yet to see a convincing argument for the existence of the hitters around someone making someone perform better offensively.

There will always be more to it than that, or the team with the highest cumulative WAR would always win. One year I think they came in last. Abreu's will sign short term deals. It would be interesting to see how he would fare in a good line up. Nelson Cruz had similar numbers at his age. I know people write off RBIa now, but even while playing for one of the worst teams in baseball, he is in the top 4 or 5 for RBIs since he came in, and one of only 4 or 5 to have at least 25 Homers and 30 doubles every seaon. The hate for him is puzzling to me. In game threads if he does well it's written off if he does poorly he's done. Thome actually got the same treatment . Not too many were upset Mark Kotsay was taking his roster spot .