Machado do-over

[Dick Allen]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Please...go get a new hobby.  Hating the White Sox and constant whining about the management on every thread and every conversation makes the whole sight boring.  Yes rebuilding is hard and suffering through losing seasons to become a great team is taxing...but this isn't random...the rebuild has been well calculated and well executed.   If you can't enjoy where we are right now in the evolution of the team, seemingly on the cusp of greatness...there's no hope that you will ever enjoy the team.  Go find something that makes you happy.     

Well caculated and we’ll execute?Seemingly on the cusp of greatness? Are all of Rick Hahns relatives on this site?

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Well caculated and we’ll execute?Seemingly on the cusp of greatness? Are all of Rick Hahns relatives on 

Snarky attacks are so clever.  Robert signing, Sale trade, Eaton trade Quintana trade, Madrigal draft, Vaughan draft...what??  What hasn't gone well?  Yes injuries have hurt but if you dont think this team is on the cusp...I'm not sure what you are looking at. 

[Jack Parkman]

25 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Snarky attacks are so clever.  Robert signing, Sale trade, Eaton trade Quintana trade, Madrigal draft, Vaughan draft...what??  What hasn't gone well?  Yes injuries have hurt but if you dont think this team is on the cusp...I'm not sure what you are looking at. 

They're still really far away. The difference between 81, 85 and 88 wins is a lot. The difference between 88 wins and 95 is massive. Once you get to 80 wins, each the difference between the next 3-5 wins is huge. What I mean is the difference between 80 and 85 wins is huge, the difference between 85 and 90 is bigger, and the difference between 90 and 95 is huge. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[BackDoorBreach]

12 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

They're still really far away. The difference between 81, 85 and 88 wins is a lot. The difference between 88 wins and 95 is massive. Once you get to 80 wins, each the difference between the next 3-5 wins is huge. What I mean is the difference between 80 and 85 wins is huge, the difference between 85 and 90 is bigger, and the difference between 90 and 95 is huge. 

Them adding a 2 WAR RF and 2 WAR DH gives them about 10 more wins from this season.  They are not that far away at all.  They need to hit on some FAs and spend money over the next 2 years.

[poppysox]

On 9/7/2019 at 5:44 PM, Jack Parkman said:

We're trying to win the Commissioner's Trophy, not the Fiscal Responsibility Trophy. 

Nice upgrades to RF & DH leaves boatloads of cash to upgrade pitching up and down the line.

[Thad Bosley]

2 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Snarky attacks are so clever.  Robert signing, Sale trade, Eaton trade Quintana trade, Madrigal draft, Vaughan draft...what??  What hasn't gone well?  Yes injuries have hurt but if you dont think this team is on the cusp...I'm not sure what you are looking at. 

“...on the cusp” and being legitimate perennial contenders like the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs (yuck), Red Sox, etc., are two completely different things.  

This owner and his FO have not shown anywhere near the ability to get a core group of elite talent from “on the cusp” talent status to sustainable on-the-field winning status. 

Sorry, but your faith in the Reinsdorf/Williams/Hahn triumvirate is unwarranted at the moment.  They don’t deserve blind faith, which is all you seem to be hanging your hopes on at the moment.  

Edited September 9, 2019 by Thad Bosley

[Jack Parkman]

5 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Them adding a 2 WAR RF and 2 WAR DH gives them about 10 more wins from this season.  They are not that far away at all.  They need to hit on some FAs and spend money over the next 2 years.

I just said that in another thread about the RF/DH positions, but once you get to 80 wins are harder to come by. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Sarava]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I just said that in another thread about the RF/DH positions, but once you get to 80 wins are harder to come by. 

First of all, all wins are equally easy or hard to get. Just as fast as we've seen a team like the Twins jump up in these last two years, we just watched last year's World Champions fall on their face this year and have their GM fired.

Second, this team is littered with potential stars. From Tim Anderson, to Yoan Moncada, to Eloy Jimenez, to Luis Robert, to Nick Madigral. That's over half the lineup that has star potential, and it's even possible they're all stars next year.

Third, and this is where you and I disagreed recently. The Sox need to sign a TOR starter. You said last week they don't need a TOR starter - I  disagree with you on this one. This staff needs a TOR guy to lead them. You combine a TOR starter with Giolito and you have a dynamite top 2 - with ridiculous potential if any of Lopez, Cease or Kopech really put it together next year.

Another reason they might make the jump next year is all these bad players they keep playing over and over. During the rebuild they've left these gaping holes as gaping holes, which was fine during a rebuild. Guys like Engel, Goins, Alonso, Cordell, Tilson,  Santiago, Covey, etc...if the Sox decide the rebuild is over and make an effort to fill all positions with major league quality talent, and get rid of guys of this caliber (minus perhaps one or two as bottom of roster fill-in's), this team could go through the roof.

It just depends on how badly Jerry wants it. Gerrit Cole is out there for the taking. Will Jerry have a stroke when he hear what Boras wants? LOL, well of course he will. I guess the question is - while he's having this stroke, will he back away from his 'seat at the table', or say screw it and sign him?

[Jack Parkman]

26 minutes ago, Sarava said:

First of all, all wins are equally easy or hard to get. Just as fast as we've seen a team like the Twins jump up in these last two years, we just watched last year's World Champions fall on their face this year and have their GM fired.

Second, this team is littered with potential stars. From Tim Anderson, to Yoan Moncada, to Eloy Jimenez, to Luis Robert, to Nick Madigral. That's over half the lineup that has star potential, and it's even possible they're all stars next year.

Third, and this is where you and I disagreed recently. The Sox need to sign a TOR starter. You said last week they don't need a TOR starter - I  disagree with you on this one. This staff needs a TOR guy to lead them. You combine a TOR starter with Giolito and you have a dynamite top 2 - with ridiculous potential if any of Lopez, Cease or Kopech really put it together next year.

Another reason they might make the jump next year is all these bad players they keep playing over and over. During the rebuild they've left these gaping holes as gaping holes, which was fine during a rebuild. Guys like Engel, Goins, Alonso, Cordell, Tilson,  Santiago, Covey, etc...if the Sox decide the rebuild is over and make an effort to fill all positions with major league quality talent, and get rid of guys of this caliber (minus perhaps one or two as bottom of roster fill-in's), this team could go through the roof.

It just depends on how badly Jerry wants it. Gerrit Cole is out there for the taking. Will Jerry have a stroke when he hear what Boras wants? LOL, well of course he will. I guess the question is - while he's having this stroke, will he back away from his 'seat at the table', or say screw it and sign him?

Disagree with you. I think there's a greater need on the position side. I don't think the Sox have any stars in the position group outside of Moncada, Robert and Jimenez. Also, does Jimenez have a position or not? Is a huge question going forward. I think Madrigal and Vaughn will be good MLB regulars in the 2-4 WAR range. The big difference is Giolito is a borderline ace right now, and Cease and Kopech have the ability to get there. I'm not as confident in Cease right now as I was earlier, but I'm fairly confident Giolito and Kopech are TOR guys. Cease and Lopez have shown that ability in spurts. The rotation is fine, contrary to what you think. Would Cole put them over the top? Absolutely, that rotation could be ridiculous, but the offense is still going to struggle to score runs. I'm more concerned about the black hole in corner OF/DH(Pending Jimenez) They were worth -4.4 fWAR in 2019, and that includes Jimenez. To put it in perspective, Adam Dunn was worth -2.9 fWAR at DH in 2011. There are easy internal candidates to fill the rotation spots.(Kopech, Dunning, Rodon) There aren't with corner OF/DH. Should they add to the rotation via FA? Absolutely. They don't need Gerrit Cole though. If Rodon could stay healthy I'd rather have him as he'd be much cheaper due to his injury history, Boras be damned.  He was having a good start to the season before his elbow snapped. After this, I think his injuries should be behind him, as long as the stuff stays intact. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Sarava]

11 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Disagree with you. I think there's a greater need on the position side. I don't think the Sox have any stars in the position group outside of Moncada, Robert and Jimenez. Also, does Jimenez have a position or not? Is a huge question going forward. I think Madrigal and Vaughn will be good MLB regulars in the 2-4 WAR range. The big difference is Giolito is a borderline ace right now, and Cease and Kopech have the ability to get there. I'm not as confident in Cease right now as I was earlier, but I'm fairly confident Giolito and Kopech are TOR guys. Cease and Lopez have shown that ability in spurts. The rotation is fine, contrary to what you think. Would Cole put them over the top? Absolutely, that rotation could be ridiculous, but the offense is still going to struggle to score runs. I'm more concerned about the black hole in corner OF/DH(Pending Jimenez) They were worth -4.4 fWAR in 2019, and that includes Jimenez. To put it in perspective, Adam Dunn was worth -2.9 fWAR at DH in 2011. There are easy internal candidates to fill the rotation spots.(Kopech, Dunning, Rodon) There aren't with corner OF/DH. Should they add to the rotation via FA? Absolutely. They don't need Gerrit Cole though. If Rodon could stay healthy I'd rather have him as he'd be much cheaper due to his injury history, Boras be damned.  He was having a good start to the season before his elbow snapped. After this, I think his injuries should be behind him, as long as the stuff stays intact. 

I never said the rotation wouldn't be 'fine' without a TOR starter. But 'fine' doesn't win the World Series. I want dominant. If the Sox want to win the World Series, they're going to have to get past teams like the Astros, who are loaded both in the rotation and in their lineup.

I understand you don't consider Madigral a potential star at this point and that's fair. We'll see how he pans out. I'm a bit surprised you dont list Tim Anderson though. He's been great this year.

But getting to the greater point - while wanting a TOR starter, that doesn't mean I'm telling them to ignore the gaping holes in RF and DH. The Sox have a insanely low payroll committed going forward and should be able to plug a few of these holes with premium talent. If they signed Gerrit Cole and JD Martinez, plus plug a few holes here or there, they still have an average payroll at best...and have the potential to be one of the better teams in baseball.

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, Sarava said:

I never said the rotation wouldn't be 'fine' without a TOR starter. But 'fine' doesn't win the World Series. I want dominant. If the Sox want to win the World Series, they're going to have to get past teams like the Astros, who are loaded both in the rotation and in their lineup.

I understand you don't consider Madigral a potential star at this point and that's fair. We'll see how he pans out. I'm a bit surprised you dont list Tim Anderson though. He's been great this year.

But getting to the greater point - while wanting a TOR starter, that doesn't mean I'm telling them to ignore the gaping holes in RF and DH. The Sox have a insanely low payroll committed going forward and should be able to plug a few of these holes with premium talent. If they signed Gerrit Cole and JD Martinez, plus plug a few holes here or there, they still have an average payroll at best...and have the potential to be one of the better teams in baseball.

It has the ability to be dominant. Anderson is a really good offensive player, but I don't know how sustainable this season is for him. He probably fits into that 2-4 WAR category. 

The point is this: When healthy or developed, All of the following have the ability to be TOR starters: Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon. Not kidding. Dane Dunning is a fine mid-back end option, pending his recovery. If they can hold on to Rodon past 2021 they have a potentially dominant rotation already in house. The huge issue is that you can't really count on Rodon as of right now.  The Rotation isn't as much of an issue as the offensive black hole that is corner OF. I think Eloy will be a DH in a season or two. Maybe I think more of the in-house guys than you do. I think Kopech and Giolito at the very least are TOR guys, and Cease and Lopez could turn the corner at any moment. If you're thinking of signing Cole and trading either Cease or Lopez for a controllable corner OF I hear you though. That kind of outside the box thinking might be necessary. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Sarava]

47 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

It has the ability to be dominant. Anderson is a really good offensive player, but I don't know how sustainable this season is for him. He probably fits into that 2-4 WAR category. 

The point is this: When healthy or developed, All of the following have the ability to be TOR starters: Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon. Not kidding. Dane Dunning is a fine mid-back end option, pending his recovery. If they can hold on to Rodon past 2021 they have a potentially dominant rotation already in house. The huge issue is that you can't really count on Rodon as of right now.  The Rotation isn't as much of an issue as the offensive black hole that is corner OF. I think Eloy will be a DH in a season or two. Maybe I think more of the in-house guys than you do. I think Kopech and Giolito at the very least are TOR guys, and Cease and Lopez could turn the corner at any moment. If you're thinking of signing Cole and trading either Cease or Lopez for a controllable corner OF I hear you though. That kind of outside the box thinking might be necessary. 

That's an interesting thought. I really don't want to trade Cease, though. Lopez? Sure for the right return. I've also mentioned I would consider a discussion around Andrew Vaughn for the right return. There's many ways to skin a cat. 

Regardless, the Sox hopefully should consider the rebuild phase as over and that it's time to go for it now. That doesn't necessarily mean it will all come together next season, but the foot needs to be on the gas starting this winter.

[Jack Parkman]

9 minutes ago, Sarava said:

That's an interesting thought. I really don't want to trade Cease, though. Lopez? Sure for the right return. I've also mentioned I would consider a discussion around Andrew Vaughn for the right return. There's many ways to skin a cat. 

Regardless, the Sox hopefully should consider the rebuild phase as over and that it's time to go for it now. That doesn't necessarily mean it will all come together next season, but the foot needs to be on the gas starting this winter.

I want their one splurge acquisition to be a position player. They're a safer bet over the life of the contract. They missed on Machado and Harper, they should be gunning for Betts in 2021. I really don't want to trade Cease either you probably would get more value for him than Lopez until Lopez turns in a dominant season in terms of results. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

4 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

The point is this: When healthy or developed, All of the following have the ability to be TOR starters: Giolito, Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Rodon. Not kidding. 

Carlos Rodon is never going to be a top of the rotation pitcher with the Chicago White Sox. He will be going 3.5 years without even being a decent pitcher for the Chicago White Sox by the time he comes back from this, his second major surgery in 3 years. You can't expect a guy to be that good coming back from TJS 12 months later if he comes back in June or so of next season as many guys need 18 months to recover fully. If he's even decent in 2021, 4 full seasons removed from the last time he was tolerable, he immediately hits free agency.

Carlos Rodon is a backup plan for this franchise at best and should not currently be counted on for anything more than that.

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Carlos Rodon is never going to be a top of the rotation pitcher with the Chicago White Sox. He will be going 3.5 years without even being a decent pitcher for the Chicago White Sox by the time he comes back from this, his second major surgery in 3 years. You can't expect a guy to be that good coming back from TJS 12 months later if he comes back in June or so of next season as many guys need 18 months to recover fully. If he's even decent in 2021, 4 full seasons removed from the last time he was tolerable, he immediately hits free agency.

Carlos Rodon is a backup plan for this franchise at best and should not currently be counted on for anything more than that.

Yeah I agree. He started the year doing what I wanted to see (throwing upwards of 50% sliders), and he both couldn't sustain it healthwise and wasn't that great.

Sucks, dude had such an amazing profile and baseball just doesn't make sense sometimes.

[Jack Parkman]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Carlos Rodon is never going to be a top of the rotation pitcher with the Chicago White Sox. He will be going 3.5 years without even being a decent pitcher for the Chicago White Sox by the time he comes back from this, his second major surgery in 3 years. You can't expect a guy to be that good coming back from TJS 12 months later if he comes back in June or so of next season as many guys need 18 months to recover fully. If he's even decent in 2021, 4 full seasons removed from the last time he was tolerable, he immediately hits free agency.

Carlos Rodon is a backup plan for this franchise at best and should not currently be counted on for anything more than that.

Well yeah, I agree with you. I said he was unreliable. In April before his elbow snapped he looked like he was turning the corner. It's a shame really. It doesn't change the fact that the innings he does give you could very well be TOR quality. I look at him like early career Strasburg, when he was struggling with injuries and TJS constantly. Strasburg wasn't quite as injured as Rodon, but now that the injuries are behind him, Strasburg is a TOR starter, even if he can only give 170-180 innings of it. I kind of hope the same for Rodon. If you think of a TOR guy as a 200 inning pitcher, then yeah, Rodon will never be that. I think he can, when healthy, give you 150-175 innings of 3.25 ERA and 11+ K/9. 

What I said stands for the other four guys. I'm very confident in Giolito/Kopech, and Cease and Lopez could put it together at any time. Anything you get out of Rodon in 2021 is a bonus. It would even be justified if they want to non-tender him and move on. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

If you think of a TOR guy as a 200 inning pitcher, then yeah, Rodon will never be that. I think he can, when healthy, give you 150-175 innings of 3.25 ERA and 11+ K/9. 

He had a brief stretch this season of a K rate over 11 in his 35 innings, but his career K-rate is 8.83/9. His career ERA is over 4. He'll be 27 when he comes back from surgery and 28 when he's in his "fully recovered" time. Maybe if he goes to the Astros they could put together that career K-rate for him, but no, I don't think he's ever going to break out as a vastly better pitcher than what we've seen. At the very least, it won't happen with the Chicago White Sox. 

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah I agree. He started the year doing what I wanted to see (throwing upwards of 50% sliders), and he both couldn't sustain it healthwise and wasn't that great.

Sucks, dude had such an amazing profile and baseball just doesn't make sense sometimes.

He was in April. If you look at his game log, his last two starts you could tell something was wrong. He had a 2.89 ERA with an 11.25 K/9 before he was injured. 

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

He had a brief stretch this season of a K rate over 11 in his 35 innings, but his career K-rate is 8.83/9. His career ERA is over 4. He'll be 27 when he comes back from surgery and 28 when he's in his "fully recovered" time. Maybe if he goes to the Astros they could put together that career K-rate for him, but no, I don't think he's ever going to break out as a vastly better pitcher than what we've seen. At the very least, it won't happen with the Chicago White Sox. 

Yeah, that was before his elbow snapped. He was on his way to a breakout season, IMO. It's really a shame. He's the Sox version of Mark Prior, except Prior had that one great year before getting injured. Shit happens. If you read more of that post you quoted, I said that you couldn't count on Rodon for jack shit, but if his stuff is the same you attempt to keep him around because the talent is there. I think Boras has his hands full getting more than a 3 year deal from anyone for him after 2021. He might get 3/ 36 on the open market, and that's if he's lucky.

Edited September 9, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

He was in April. If you look at his game log, his last two starts you could tell something was wrong. He had a 2.89 ERA with an 11.25 K/9 before he was injured. 

And if you actually watched him, his velocity was down from the season before, he was surviving because he was throwing a ton of sliders that no one can hit but that he also can't control. His walk rate was up and he wasn't particularly unlucky on hits or home runs over that stretch. Even with a k-rate near 12, which he couldn't sustain that 2.89 ERA.

[Wanne]

13 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

They're still really far away. The difference between 81, 85 and 88 wins is a lot. The difference between 88 wins and 95 is massive. Once you get to 80 wins, each the difference between the next 3-5 wins is huge. What I mean is the difference between 80 and 85 wins is huge, the difference between 85 and 90 is bigger, and the difference between 90 and 95 is huge. 

Everybody thought the Bears were really far away last year too. Talent wise I don't think this team is all that far away. Need a nice rotation guy, RF and a few successful call ups (Robert/Madrigal).  Sometimes you need a different voice at the top to get it going the right direction too.

*edit: and staying healthy.

Edited September 9, 2019 by Wanne

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

And if you actually watched him, his velocity was down from the season before, he was surviving because he was throwing a ton of sliders that no one can hit but that he also can't control. His walk rate was up and he wasn't particularly unlucky on hits or home runs over that stretch. Even with a k-rate near 12, which he couldn't sustain that 2.89 ERA.

I did watch him. The velocity was actually similar to 2018 where it would take him a while to get going but it would ramp up in the mid to late innings early on. Then, toward the end of April, the velocity didn't come, then it was down. You remember the two starts where he got killed. He looked good in his first 5. Yeah, the walks were there but he was missing bats like crazy and still throwing 92-93 to start games, ramping up to 95-96 by the 4th inning. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Wanne said:

*edit: and staying healthy.

Still have the 10th fewest days spent on the IL out of major league baseball this year. If your team needs to be healthier than this to compete then you will never compete. In our division - Cleveland gets to complain about how banged up they were this year, and every time someone else says they need to be healthier to compete Cleveland gets to laugh at them.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Wanne said:

Everybody thought the Bears were really far away last year too. Talent wise I don't think this team is all that far away. Need a nice rotation guy, RF and a few successful call ups (Robert/Madrigal).  Sometimes you need a different voice at the top to get it going the right direction too.

*edit: and staying healthy.

Wanne, I hate to say this, but until you have a QB that's proven you're worth a damn your team is maxing at 9 wins no matter how good the defense is. 2008 Bears are the best case scenario for a team without a decent QB. They finished 9-7. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Jose Abreu]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Wanne, I hate to say this, but until you have a QB that's proven you're worth a damn your team is maxing at 9 wins no matter how good the defense is. 2008 Bears are the best case scenario for a team without a decent QB. They finished 9-7. 

So you're inadvertently arguing that he's right? The team he's talking about went 12-4 despite being projected to finish in last place.