Machado do-over

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Yet he’s at 36.7 for his career right now.

What’s he at this year? 18th out of 23 qualified 3b in fWAR. I don’t know about you but totally seems worth $300M to me ?

Edited August 18, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Moan4Yoan]

21 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

What’s he at this year? 18th out of 23 qualified 3b in fWAR. I don’t know about you but totally seems worth $300M to me ?

Yes, after several years of being a stud, this is who he is now at the old age of 27.

Edited August 18, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[caulfield12]

A month ago, we would have had the same conversation about Harper being a terrible signing when he was getting booed nightly in Philadelphia.

How many of the 3B ahead of Machado were available to the White Sox or other teams last offseason?

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/WARBR/order/true

If you go by bWAR, Machado is 9th at 2.9, and Josh Donaldson...who would have made little sense for 1-2 non-competitive seasons, would have been the only other option.

This idea that Machado is suddenly a terrible contract or that Madrigal will outproduce him is...well, let’s knock off 1 fWAR from his average for the last four years, which was 5.4.

Now, we expect Madrigal to realistically roll out 4-5 fWAR seasons based on what exactly?  Hitting 15-18 homers per season?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

A month ago, we would have had the same conversation about Harper being a terrible signing when he was getting booed nightly in Philadelphia.

How many of the 3B ahead of Machado were available to the White Sox or other teams last offseason?

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/WARBR/order/true

If you go by bWAR, Machado is 9th at 2.9, and Josh Donaldson...who would have made little sense for 1-2 non-competitive seasons, would have been the only other option.

This idea that Machado is suddenly a terrible contract or that Madrigal will outproduce him is...well, let’s knock off 1 fWAR from his average for the last four years, which was 5.4.

Now, we expect Madrigal to realistically roll out 4-5 fWAR seasons based on what exactly?  Hitting 15-18 homers per season?

I believe Machado posts ~10 fWAR his first 3 years of the deal, ~10 fWAR the next 5 years, and then ~2 fWAR the last 2 years. I believe Madrigal will be in the 18-22 fWAR range over his first 7 seasons.

Again, just my opinion. So far Manny and his 110 wRC+ is making me look good.

[caulfield12]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I believe Machado posts ~10 fWAR his first 3 years of the deal, ~10 fWAR the next 5 years, and then ~2 fWAR the last 2 years. I believe Madrigal will be in the 18-22 fWAR range over his first 7 seasons.

Again, just my opinion. So far Manny and his 110 wRC+ is making me look good.

Only if the White Sox get expected contributions from all their young players...especially from Jimenez on both sides of the ball.

In the end, with Abreu faltering, you’re underestimating the value of a Machado to this lineup, especially playing 81 games at GRF.  You’re also underestimating his durability, as well as his skills at SS.

In the end, if they don’t spend that $300 million elsewhere, or at the very least, $200 million, this team won’t be competitive in 2020.

Unfortunately, no flags fly for either attendance or maximized allocation of $/fWAR, or the Rays would win that title every season.

[TaylorStSox]

I wonder how many GM's would trade Machado and Moncada for Moncada, Madrigal and $300M.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Only if the White Sox get expected contributions from all their young players...especially from Jimenez on both sides of the ball.

In the end, with Abreu faltering, you’re underestimating the value of a Machado to this lineup, especially playing 81 games at GRF.  You’re also underestimating his durability, as well as his skills at SS.

In the end, if they don’t spend that $300 million elsewhere, or at the very least, $200 million, this team won’t be competitive in 2020.

Unfortunately, no flags fly for either attendance or maximized allocation of $/fWAR, or the Rays would win that title every season.

I wanted the money spent just like everyone else (still do) but I wanted it spent on Harper, not Machado. He was always a much better fit for this team imo. I never understood why people thought Machado was the better fit when infield position players is the one relative strength of this team now and for the foreseeable future. RF is a gaping hole and a middle of the order, high on base, power lefty bat is so dearly missing right now.

[Sarava]

Yes the Sox should of given him 300 mil. Hell, if they weren't so cheap all last winter and obsessed with not bidding against themselves, they might of nabbed him at 270 or 280 before the Padres entered the fray.

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I wonder how many GM's would trade Machado and Moncada for Moncada, Madrigal and $300M.

First of all, the White Sox haven’t spent $300 million on anything...unprecedented financial flexibility does little to nothing if you don’t spend it.

There are roughly 10-12 players in free agency that (nearly) everyone is looking at, and it’s a second/third tier fest of crap after that.  50% of the premier free agents who were going to be on the market after this season and next season are now long gone in the rash of extensions that were signed.

And you’re assuming that Machado doesn’t opt out after five years, which you have no way of knowing.

 

And what are the White Sox going to do at 3B at the end of 2023?  You will burned four years of Moncada without being in the wild card hunt unless things drastically change this offseason.

And it’s not like Minnesota and Cleveland will fold their franchises.  All offseason, there was a constant refrain of the Indians are almost done.  Still hasn’t happened.

Edited August 18, 2019 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Or wouldn’t every GM prefer Machado, Anderson and Moncada across the diamond with a stud starter obtained in trade with Madrigal and minor league OF depth as the centerpiece, allowing them to actually compete in 2020 instead of waiting yet another season?

 

Reinsdorf wouldn’t authorize the money for Tanaka or Harper or Machado....he will do it for Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon?  

Well, Rendon signing would be just as dubious according to the last argument.

Would you rather have Rendon or Moncada, Madrigal and $225-250 million?

Edited August 18, 2019 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

I blame Kenny's big mouth for the failure to land Machado. If Kenny doesn't go blabbing to his BFFs Bob and Bruce, I actually think that they get the job done for 8/250-260 with the option years that they were talking about. But KW had to open his yap. 

Knowing how it all went down, if that report never gets to Levine and Nightengale, the Padres never get involved. The Sox offer is the best on the table and while the saga could have potentially lasted another couple weeks, if the offers never come, Machado comes here. 

Edited August 18, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[TaylorStSox]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

I blame Kenny's big mouth for the failure to land Machado. If Kenny doesn't go blabbing to his BFFs Bob and Bruce, I actually think that they get the job done for 8/250-260 with the option years that they were talking about. But KW had to open his yap. 

Knowing how it all went down, if that report never gets to Levine and Nightengale, the Padres never get involved. The Sox offer is the best on the table and while the saga could have potentially lasted another couple weeks, if the offers never come, Machado comes here. 

You've completely created this narrative in your own head. 

[TaylorStSox]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

First of all, the White Sox haven’t spent $300 million on anything...unprecedented financial flexibility does little to nothing if you don’t spend it.

There are roughly 10-12 players in free agency that (nearly) everyone is looking at, and it’s a second/third tier fest of crap after that.  50% of the premier free agents who were going to be on the market after this season and next season are now long gone in the rash of extensions that were signed.

And you’re assuming that Machado doesn’t opt out after five years, which you have no way of knowing.

 

And what are the White Sox going to do at 3B at the end of 2023?  You will burned four years of Moncada without being in the wild card hunt unless things drastically change this offseason.

And it’s not like Minnesota and Cleveland will fold their franchises.  All offseason, there was a constant refrain of the Indians are almost done.  Still hasn’t happened.

That's a really long post that never answered the question. 

[GradMc]

On 8/18/2019 at 1:42 AM, TaylorStSox said:

You've completely created this narrative in your own head. 

Has nothing to do with that.

Reinsdorf knew this was a once in generation opportunity to nabbed 2 superstar players in their prime without any competition from the usual major market players.  

This financial flexibility crap has more to do with the ownership wallets than an investment in the team.

2005 was the ownership blueprint which is why that team was a one-hit wonder:

Championships for this regime have to be coincidental with achieving their bottom line. Starting with Ellis Burke, Reinsdorf has been about catching lightening in a bottle.

In 2005, he caught it with an entire team. That team has produced exactly one hall of fame player - and he didn't even get a chance to play.  

Edited September 8, 2019 by GradMc

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

The problem with retrospect is we don't have all the information.  If instead of throwing $300 million at one of those two they give Cole 7/$210  and Puig 2/$50 and Felix Hernandez  1/$30 and Reinsdorf $10...I'd be ok with that shuffling of resources.   But if the choice is...$300 mil last year for one of those two versus the Sox sitting on their wallet....well then I hate them...but I do believe they will spend. 

Why do posters entertain the fantasy that:

1.THIS org, with

2. THAT (snicker) frugal owner, and

3.THOSE geniuses in the front office will make that happen?

 

He's a Boras client, and half of the league, including most of the moneyed class in MLB will be after his signature. The ownership hates giving out contracts, and much less, contracts to starting pitching. The front office bozos can't formulate a cogent argument to the frugal owner about how/when spending on FA makes sense, that is, if they can even ID a decent target to sign in the first place. 

The move to make was either Machado or Harper, given that there was not nearly as much competition for their signatures, full stop. I preferred Machado then, and now, though I would have been happy with either. [Cue Hahnpologists, FO Friends, and In Kenny We Trust types to fall all over themselves to attack fair criticism against JR/RH/KW in 3, 2, 1...]

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Why do posters entertain the fantasy that:

1.THIS org, with

2. THAT (snicker) frugal owner, and

3.THOSE geniuses in the front office will make that happen?

 

He's a Boras client, and half of the league, including most of the moneyed class in MLB will be after his signature. The ownership hates giving out contracts, and much less, contracts to starting pitching. The front office bozos can't formulate a cogent argument to the frugal owner about how/when spending on FA makes sense, that is, if they can even ID a decent target to sign in the first place. 

The move to make was either Machado or Harper, given that there was not nearly as much competition for their signatures, full stop. I preferred Machado then, and now, though I would have been happy with either. [Cue Hahnpologists, FO Friends, and In Kenny We Trust types to fall all over themselves to attack fair criticism against JR/RH/KW in 3, 2, 1...]

Yeah, so the question posted was,  a theoretical exercise....if you could go back in time with the sack of $320 million would you still have signed Machado or Harper.  Given the question I said there was a third option which is allocating those resources to someone else and I gave ideas.  The great thing about Soxtalk is...no matter what the conversation, no matter where you go on the site...there's always some poster saying HAHN SUCKS! REINSDORF SUCKS!  THE TEAM SUCKS! THE PAST IS THE FUTURE!  Thank you for your enlightening thoughts.  

[HoosierSox]

11 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

The problem with retrospect is we don't have all the information.  If instead of throwing $300 million at one of those two they give Cole 7/$210  and Puig 2/$50 and Felix Hernandez  1/$30 and Reinsdorf $10...I'd be ok with that shuffling of resources.   But if the choice is...$300 mil last year for one of those two versus the Sox sitting on their wallet....well then I hate them...but I do believe they will spend.     

 

You think they should spend $30 mil on washed up Felix Hernandez? No thanks.

[michelangelosmonkey]

4 hours ago, GradMc said:

Has nothing to do with that.

Reinsdorf knew this was a once in generation opportunity to nabbed 2 superstar players in their prime without any competition from the usual market market players.  

This financial flexibility crap has more to do with the ownership wallets than an investment in the team.

2005 was the ownership blueprint which is why that team was a one-hit wonder:

Championships for this regime have to be coincidental with achieving their bottom line. Starting with Ellis Burke, Reinsdorf has been about catching lightening in a bottle.

In the 2005, he caught it with an entire team. That team has produced exactly one hall of fame player - and he didn't even get a chance to play.  

What was (is) a "once in a generation" opportunity was to spend $300 million.  There is virtually no payroll and won't be for about five years.  I think in retrospect spending that $300 on a superstar hitter with almost a guaranteed wasted year may  not have been the right move.  A left handed hitting right fielder does, in retrospect, seem like exactly what we need...but Machado who they really went after now looks like a redundancy.  It looks to me like they are going to have a ton of hitting...so spending that $300 on a superstar pitcher might be the preferred route.  But the idea of spending it on five $60 million contracts is appealing.  Of course not spending it at all will just irritate everyone.  

[michelangelosmonkey]

15 minutes ago, HoosierSox said:

You think they should spend $30 mil on washed up Felix Hernandez? No thanks.

Ok...yes $30 is goofy...$5?  $10?   He's had a lot of injuries the last few years and he's "only" 33 and had an amazing 7 year run.  Still better to go seek someone like the amazing Mike Minor...who Atlanta gave up on...Texas signed for 3/$28 and he's put up an 11 WAR in a year and a half.  Luck plays such a key in this.  Also...a reason not to give up on Carson Fulmer...there's clearly talent there and sometimes pitches are late bloomers.

[Texsox]

16 hours ago, greg775 said:

I wanted Harper, not Manny. Too many red flags. None of it really had to do with money. I hate Jerry "hoarding" it. But Manny had red flags. Again, not trying to save Jerry money, but if I were Hahn I wouldn't want to tie up a significant percentage of future payroll on a guy with red flags and with examples of players not being worth much later years of their contracts.

I was agreeing with you until the final statement. With baseball contracts the player is almost always overpaid the last couple of seasons. They are often times underpaid towards the start of the contract.

You will always have players you are overpaying for that season, underpaying some players, and a few unicorns will be exactly what they are worth. 

[Thad Bosley]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yeah, so the question posted was,  a theoretical exercise....if you could go back in time with the sack of $320 million would you still have signed Machado or Harper.  Given the question I said there was a third option which is allocating those resources to someone else and I gave ideas.  The great thing about Soxtalk is...no matter what the conversation, no matter where you go on the site...there's always some poster saying HAHN SUCKS! REINSDORF SUCKS!  THE TEAM SUCKS! THE PAST IS THE FUTURE!  Thank you for your enlightening thoughts.  

Well, Reinsdorf does suck (see his 39 year record - terribly unimpressive), but as it relates to this theoretical exercise, the fact of the matter is the Sox have the massive flexibility to have spent the money to bring in Machado or Harper, AND still have plenty of budget leftover to go after those other resources you’ve named.   Going into next season, the Sox will be around $100M below just the median MLB payroll.  It would be $70M if we had one of those generational talents on the payroll.  

So the exercise is not one of should they have spent the money on either Machado or Harper OR spend that money on three other players, but rather do both.   

[Moan4Yoan]

11 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

I wonder how many GM's would trade Machado and Moncada for Moncada, Madrigal and $300M.

If you want to speak hypotheticals, I’ll take Tatis Jr., Machado, and Moncada.

[bmags]

What free agents this offseason present the high likelihood opportunity of maintaining a 3.5 WAR pace with higher upside through the next 5 years of their career?

 

[Chicago White Sox]

19 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

If you want to speak hypotheticals, I’ll take Tatis Jr., Machado, and Moncada.

This is the type of shit posting that adds absolute zero value to the board and simply makes you come off as a whiny little b****.

[Moan4Yoan]

12 minutes ago, bmags said:

What free agents this offseason present the high likelihood opportunity of maintaining a 3.5 WAR pace with higher upside through the next 5 years of their career?

 

And will be 26 years old when we sign them.