Machado do-over

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

And will be 26 years old when we sign them.

I mean, will be even 27 when we sign them.

When we have to upgrade the offense and need to send players for them we will have wished we could just send money.

[Moan4Yoan]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I mean, will be even 27 when we sign them.

When we have to upgrade the offense and need to send players for them we will have wished we could just send money.

Maybe Castellanos?  He’ll turn 28 in March.  I believe he’s the youngest of the free agents available that the Sox would be looking at.

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, bmags said:

What free agents this offseason present the high likelihood opportunity of maintaining a 3.5 WAR pace with higher upside through the next 5 years of their career?

 

Anthony Rendon?

[Moan4Yoan]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Anthony Rendon?

Added qualifier:  of players the Sox will have a chance at signing.  ?

And I don’t even see the Sox considering Rendon with Moncada at 3B and Madrigal at 2B.

Rendon is also two years older than both Harper and Machado.

Edited August 18, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Anthony Rendon?

Age makes that unlikely to me. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Added qualifier:  of players the Sox will have a chance at signing.  ?

And I don’t even see the Sox considering Rendon with Moncada at 3B and Madrigal at 2B.

Rendon is also two years older than both Harper and Machado.

Two years older but arguably a better player than both of them.  Just saying he might fit’s bmags criteria.

[Moan4Yoan]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Two years older but arguably a better player than both of them.  Just saying he might fit’s bmags criteria.

5 years would be until Rendon is 35?  Perhaps, but not likely.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Two years older but arguably a better player than both of them.  Just saying he might fit’s bmags criteria.

He is wonderful, but you are signing him into his age 29/30 season and aging curves have been dramatic.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, bmags said:

Age makes that unlikely to me. 

Maybe, but he’s now a consistent 6 win player and even with a 0.5 win loss each year going forward he’d still be a 3.5 win player over the next five seasons.  Obviously aging curves aren’t that simple, but just trying to highlight how he can actually quite a bit and still be a damn good player.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

36 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

5 years would be until Rendon is 35?  Perhaps, but not likely.

Close enough . The 1st couple years you should get more than 3.5 so it'll probably balance out in the end. 17.5 is doable .

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/anthony-rendon-keeps-getting-better/

Unfortunately he might want a 6 or 7 year contract but for his production level he still could be worth it. Superstars you have to expect to give that kind of contract but it is less crippling while also being riskier because of age but as the fangraphs article discusses he's found a way to get even better.

Edited August 18, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[TheFutureIsNear]

Considering the fact that I don’t think the $ will be spent well regardless, yes I’d have no problem slightly overpaying for Machado. I mean what’s the alternative? Save the $ and sign more middling vets for cheap? I’ll take Machado unless you’re telling me we are signing Cole, Rendon, or some package of players like Ozuna + a 2nd tier SP like wheeler/Odorizi. But I have about 1% hope any of the later will happen, so yeah, I wish the front office/owner had the balls to pay up for Machado instead of that bs cop out offer they made to appear like they really tried. 

 

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

What free agents this offseason present the high likelihood opportunity of maintaining a 3.5 WAR pace with higher upside through the next 5 years of their career?

 

Gerrit Cole

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Cole makes too much sense for this team. An even better fit than Machado given the uncertainty of the rotation next season (and beyond). Unfortunately, Jerry won’t spend the money for a stud like that, just like he was never going to spend the money for Machado Or Harper. So we’re left with some combination of Odorizzi, Ryu, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Strasburg. I’d gladly take two of those even if it’s the lower end guys like Odorizzi and Wheeler.

[ChiSox1917]

17 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

The problem with retrospect is we don't have all the information.  If instead of throwing $300 million at one of those two they give Cole 7/$210  and Puig 2/$50 and Felix Hernandez  1/$30 and Reinsdorf $10...I'd be ok with that shuffling of resources.   But if the choice is...$300 mil last year for one of those two versus the Sox sitting on their wallet....well then I hate them...but I do believe they will spend.     

 

I wouldn't give Felix Hernandez $3million/year at this point.  Why on earth would anyone give him $30m?

[Jerksticks]

Is there ANY chance Rendon would want to play 1B for the Sox and slide over to 3B when Moncada gets hurt?

 

in that case sign me the F up

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Cole makes too much sense for this team. An even better fit than Machado given the uncertainty of the rotation next season (and beyond). Unfortunately, Jerry won’t spend the money for a stud like that, just like he was never going to spend the money for Machado Or Harper. So we’re left with some combination of Odorizzi, Ryu, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Strasburg. I’d gladly take two of those even if it’s the lower end guys like Odorizzi and Wheeler.

I just don’t get why so many here consider Wheeler  “lower end”.  He’s 21st in fWAR amongst starting pitchers with at least 50 IP.  Yes, he’s nowhere near as good as Cole, but there simply aren’t a ton of dominant pitchers in this juiced ball era and he’s pretty much in that sizable tier below the elite guys.  He’d be a phenomenal addition IMO and I think he ends being a better signing than Strasberg or Bumgarner.

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just don’t get why so many here consider Wheeler  “lower end”.  He’s 21st in fWAR amongst starting pitchers with at least 50 IP.  Yes, he’s nowhere near as good as Cole, but there simply aren’t a ton of dominant pitchers in this juiced ball era and he’s pretty much in that sizable tier below the elite guys.  He’d be a phenomenal addition IMO and I think he ends being a better signing than Strasberg or Bumgarner.

He has been inconsistent and oft-injured. Can believe in raw talent over an odorizzi but both are lemon candidates

[greg775]

5 hours ago, Texsox said:

I was agreeing with you until the final statement. With baseball contracts the player is almost always overpaid the last couple of seasons. They are often times underpaid towards the start of the contract.

You will always have players you are overpaying for that season, underpaying some players, and a few unicorns will be exactly what they are worth. 

If the Sox have to pay exorbitant contracts in order to win it all I'm good with it. Again, I'm never upset when the owners have their profits cut into. They don't care about fans; why should fans care about them? Manny didn't float my boat but he's a good hitter. Our front office has signed some free agents; most of them have stunk.

[Chicago White Sox]

15 minutes ago, bmags said:

He has been inconsistent and oft-injured. Can believe in raw talent over an odorizzi but both are lemon candidates

But I guess that’s my point.  There are only a handful of starters who are actually sure things.  Since 2016, only 30 total starters have amassed 10+ fWAR and only 10 them have amassed 15+ fWAR.  Starting pitching has become less durable and increasingly inconsistent, especially in the juiced ball era.  

Wheeler isn’t one of those 30 starters with 10+ fWAR since 2016 because of past injuries.  But he’s on pace for his second consecutive 4 win season and has plus stuff.  If I can’t land one of the handful of reliable elite starters in the game like Cole, rolling the dice on a guy like Wheeler who might be on the cusp of jumping into that next tier of starters makes a ton of sense, especially if his past injuries constrain the amount of years he’ll be able to command.

[Flash]

Can see us resigning Nova if demands are in the realm of sanity (maybe 2yrs/$25M?). Who knows what it will take for some of the upper tier guys but I'd feel pretty good about our chances with Gio, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Nova and any of Ryu, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Strasburg and of course, Cole.

[Moan4Yoan]

1 minute ago, Flash said:

Can see us resigning Nova if demands are in the realm of sanity (maybe 2yrs/$25M?). Who knows what it will take for some of the upper tier guys but I'd feel pretty good about our chances with Gio, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Nova and any of Ryu, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Strasburg and of course, Cole.

Let’s not.

Edited August 18, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[BackDoorBreach]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I just don’t get why so many here consider Wheeler  “lower end”.  He’s 21st in fWAR amongst starting pitchers with at least 50 IP.  Yes, he’s nowhere near as good as Cole, but there simply aren’t a ton of dominant pitchers in this juiced ball era and he’s pretty much in that sizable tier below the elite guys.  He’d be a phenomenal addition IMO and I think he ends being a better signing than Strasberg or Bumgarner.

He's going to have a draft pick attached to him as well as the injury and consistency issues.

I would be happy with a Wheeler signing though if we don't get Cole or Strasburg.  

[turnin' two]

13 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

That's a really long post that never answered the question. 

Taylor St. Sox, meet Caufield. 

[Texsox]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

If the Sox have to pay exorbitant contracts in order to win it all I'm good with it. Again, I'm never upset when the owners have their profits cut into. They don't care about fans; why should fans care about them? Manny didn't float my boat but he's a good hitter. Our front office has signed some free agents; most of them have stunk.

Yet you said you didn't want guys who were overpaid the final years on their contracts. 

[turnin' two]

As for the question, I say yes.  If you can go back in time you try to sign Harper or Machado.  That order was my preference and it remains that way.  But really, if I could go back in time, I would just make sure I have no expectation of the Sox signing either, because even if we went back in time, the Sox wouldn't close the deal on either.

Even before they signed, they were unlikely to play up to their contracts.  But there is more at play that on field results for the Sox, and each player was the best chance to get a long term impact Major League hitter added to the roster.

Edited August 18, 2019 by turnin' two