Machado do-over

[bmags]

40 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But I guess that’s my point.  There are only a handful of starters who are actually sure things.  Since 2016, only 30 total starters have amassed 10+ fWAR and only 10 them have amassed 15+ fWAR.  Starting pitching has become less durable and increasingly inconsistent, especially in the juiced ball era.  

Wheeler isn’t one of those 30 starters with 10+ fWAR since 2016 because of past injuries.  But he’s on pace for his second consecutive 4 win season and has plus stuff.  If I can’t land one of the handful of reliable elite starters in the game like Cole, rolling the dice on a guy like Wheeler who might be on the cusp of jumping into that next tier of starters makes a ton of sense, especially if his past injuries constrain the amount of years he’ll be able to command.

I really just don’t like free agents like wheeler. Maybe I’m wrong, but I see him as a Corbin-like deal and not a 4 for 60 type deal, so if he is cheaper I’d be game.

I just feel like in baseball I’d much rather allocate more into guys with a high floor than a high ceiling. In the NFL you can course correct quickly, so paying for upside can pay off. In baseball you can’t, so in this thread we have people stating machado having his first year as a 3.5 WAR year as why his contract is bad but to me it’s why he’s good.

Players that have established themselves in the top tier for a bit like bumgarner may not give you the high production you are paying for but they give you a higher likelihood of a high floor and a reputation for pitching that makes them always tradeable despite salary. 

Basically I think you should operate high/low in free agency. You don’t pay for odorizzi after he’s good, you have to operate by getting him before and do it yourself. Of course, this type of management should include spending heavy amounts of resources in PD and international to turn out as much cheap talent as you can, and we don’t have that. So we may need to pay for starters with higher variance and cross our fingers.

[greg775]

24 minutes ago, Texsox said:

Yet you said you didn't want guys who were overpaid the final years on their contracts. 

I'm good with Jerry spending Jerry's money if it guarantees titles. Do I think it's necessarily wise? No. If I was a GM and my job depended on it, I'd figure out a different way. Because you sign one guy for 300 million, odds are decent he'll get hurt or flop and frankly at that point you fire the GM. I'd figure a different way to spend Jerry's money. But if you guarantee me a title or two I'm OK with it. Not my cash.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

56 minutes ago, bmags said:

I really just don’t like free agents like wheeler. Maybe I’m wrong, but I see him as a Corbin-like deal and not a 4 for 60 type deal, so if he is cheaper I’d be game.

I just feel like in baseball I’d much rather allocate more into guys with a high floor than a high ceiling. In the NFL you can course correct quickly, so paying for upside can pay off. In baseball you can’t, so in this thread we have people stating machado having his first year as a 3.5 WAR year as why his contract is bad but to me it’s why he’s good.

Players that have established themselves in the top tier for a bit like bumgarner may not give you the high production you are paying for but they give you a higher likelihood of a high floor and a reputation for pitching that makes them always tradeable despite salary. 

Basically I think you should operate high/low in free agency. You don’t pay for odorizzi after he’s good, you have to operate by getting him before and do it yourself. Of course, this type of management should include spending heavy amounts of resources in PD and international to turn out as much cheap talent as you can, and we don’t have that. So we may need to pay for starters with higher variance and cross our fingers.

You really think Wheeler gets $140M?? I say not a chance. 

Regarding Machado, if he’s putting together 3-3.5 fWAR/season during his “prime”, what’s he going to be doing in his 30s a few years from now?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

And we’re not willing to pay Odorizzi a Lance Lynn type contract after he’s been “good” (even though he’s basically been the same pitcher his entire career high 3s, low 4s ERA) but we’re totally willing to hand out a $300M contract for a guy with questionable character traits coming off a career year and 2/6 of his full seasons prior to signing resulted in less than 3 fWAR?

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And we’re not willing to pay Odorizzi a Lance Lynn type contract after he’s been “good” (even though he’s basically been the same pitcher his entire career high 3s, low 4s ERA) but we’re totally willing to hand out a $300M contract for a guy with questionable character traits coming off a career year and 2/6 of his full seasons prior to signing resulted in less than 3 fWAR?

You want variance, look at Bryce Harper.  Or Marcell Ozuna.

You can spin it however you want, his average was a 5.4 fWAR over the four seasons prior to this one.

[bmags]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

You really think Wheeler gets $140M?? I say not a chance. 

Regarding Machado, if he’s putting together 3-3.5 fWAR/season during his “prime”, what’s he going to be doing in his 30s a few years from now?

He had a 6 WAR season just last year. 

[Moan4Yoan]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

He had a 6 WAR season just last year. 

Only right now matters.  This is who Machado is now and forever.  He has hit the wall at the old age of 27.

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, bmags said:

He had a 6 WAR season just last year. 

I love how what was looking closer to 4 (projected 38 games from now) is now moved down to 3.0-3.5 by the day.

At any rate, we could say he’s only 2.9 by bWAR but that puts him as the 9th best 3B.   We might as well say Leury Garcia is at the same level positionally (CF) as Machado or that both guys are well ahead of Abreu.  And that means well...absolutely nothing.

Context matters.

Actual player availability and age also matter, especially with the plethora of extensions signed the last calendar year.

Edited August 18, 2019 by caulfield12

[Moan4Yoan]

Just now, caulfield12 said:

I love how what was looking closer to 4 (projected 38 games from now) is now moved down to 3.0-3.5 by the day.

At any rate, we could say he’s only 2.9 by bWAR but that puts him as the 9th best 3B.   We might as well say Leury Garcia is at the same level positionally (CF) as Machado or that both guys are well ahead of Abreu.

Context matters.

Actual player availability and age also matter, especially with the plethora of extensions signed the last calendar year.

He’s trying hard to be right.  In any case, the Sox last offseason pretty much sucked and they should have jumped to sign one of the two 26 year olds available.  We will see if Hahn can make up for his failure next offseason.

[caulfield12]

Just now, Moan4Yoan said:

He’s trying hard to be right.  In any case, the Sox last offseason pretty much sucked and they should have jumped to sign one of the two 26 year olds available.  We will see if Hahn can make up for his failure next offseason.

Most of us would be shocked if they spent $300 million, combined, over all the new additions...

I would estimate the over/under on FA spending (if there was such a thing) would be right around $125 million or so.

There’s simply not enough young/er talent that fits with our current depth chart, outside of pitching...which is where the White Sox have parted with money about as easily as my SS-dependent aunt from Dubuque at Christmas time.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

56 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

He’s trying hard to be right.  In any case, the Sox last offseason pretty much sucked and they should have jumped to sign one of the two 26 year olds available.  We will see if Hahn can make up for his failure next offseason.

And you’re not? Lol. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

He had a 6 WAR season just last year. 

No one wants to hear it but I’m a firm believer Machado was juicing. In fact, I believe more than half that Orioles team was. My fear was always that once Machado got paid, his offense would fall off (because who needs the juice when you’ve got $300M in the bank or in the case of Chris Davis $161M in the bank)

Edited August 19, 2019 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

No one wants to hear it but I’m a firm believer Machado was juicing. In fact, I believe more than half that Orioles team was. My fear was always that once Machado got paid, his offense was fall off (because who needs the juice when you’ve got $300M in the bank or in the case of Chris Davis $161M in the bank)

Why in the world do you think he was juicing?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

I love how what was looking closer to 4 (projected 38 games from now) is now moved down to 3.0-3.5 by the day.

At any rate, we could say he’s only 2.9 by bWAR but that puts him as the 9th best 3B.   We might as well say Leury Garcia is at the same level positionally (CF) as Machado or that both guys are well ahead of Abreu.  And that means well...absolutely nothing.

Context matters.

Actual player availability and age also matter, especially with the plethora of extensions signed the last calendar year.

Machado has been pretty ordinary all season except for a hot stretch in June. Not sure how anyone could argue he’s had a good season. His drop off in offensive performance from his career year last season was completely predictable.

[Moan4Yoan]

7 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And you’re not? Lol. 

Name another free agent that will be better to go after anytime soon than two 26 year olds from last offseason.  And before you say Rendon, he’s 2 years older than Machado and Harper so he would be a worse target on a long-term deal of 8+ years.

Edited August 19, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[Moan4Yoan]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why in the world do you think he was juicing?

To support his narrative.  Machado only had a 6 WAR in the past cuz of roids.  If Machado turns it around this season or has a 6 WAR next season, JUSTgottaBELIEVE will go quietly into the night.

Edited August 19, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why in the world do you think he was juicing?

Him and Beef Wellington were tight no? Like I said, I’m convinced more than half that Orioles team was dirty - Davis, Castillo, Machado, Schoop, Cruz, etc.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Name another free agent that will be better to go after anytime soon than two 26 year olds from last offseason.  And before you say Rendon, he’s 2 years older than Machado and Harper so he would be a worse target on a long-term deal of 8+ years.

Not sure that’s automatically true.  I agree that Rendon would be a riskier target, but he’s also a better player than Harper and arguably Machado.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Him and Beef Wellington were tight no? Like I said, I’m convinced more than half that Orioles team was dirty - Davis, Castillo, Machado, Schoop, Cruz, etc.

But why?  What evidence do you have?

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

Name another free agent that will be better to go after anytime soon than two 26 year olds from last offseason.  And before you say Rendon, he’s 2 years older than Machado and Harper so he would be a worse target on a long-term deal of 8+ years.

Do you even know what you’re arguing? I’m on record in saying that they should have signed Harper. And to answer your question, I’d rather have two starting pitchers (say Strasburg and Bumgarner) for the price of one $300M Manny Machado.

[Moan4Yoan]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Do you even know what you’re arguing? I’m on record in saying that they should have signed Harper. And to answer your question, I’d rather have two starting pitchers (say Strasburg and Bumgarner) for the price of one $300M Manny Machado.

The Sox have enough money for one of Machado and Harper last year and both Strasburg and Bumgarner this year.  But don’t expect any of them.  ?

[Moan4Yoan]

14 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But why?  What evidence do you have?

He was in the bathroom stall injecting Machado in the butt cheek like Jose Canseco did for McGwire.

Edited August 19, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 minutes ago, Moan4Yoan said:

The Sox have enough money for one of Machado and Harper last year and both Strasburg and Bumgarner this year.  But don’t expect any of them.  ?

I’m not. But if the question is what is a better use of resources for this team as currently constructed - $300M for Machado or $250M for Strasburg and Bumgarner, I’m taking the second option and it’s not even close.

[Moan4Yoan]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I’m not. But if the question is what is a better use of resources for this team as currently constructed - $300M for Machado or $250M for Strasburg and Bumgarner, I’m taking the second option and it’s not even close.

Keep in mind you are choosing two 30 year old starting pitchers over a 26 year old infielder, one with an injury history and one with declining stuff.  I’m not so sure your decision would be the correct one.

Edited August 19, 2019 by Moan4Yoan

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

But why?  What evidence do you have?

Sorry I haven’t personally collected Manny’s piss and tested it. And just because he hasn’t been caught by the league doesn’t mean he was clean either. Plenty of ways to hide it. How many “superstars” have actually received PED suspensions during the prime of their careers?

My evidence is his offensive performance this season and what I expect to come over the next 9 seasons. I mean he’s in his “prime” as a hitter yet he’s on pace for a career high strikeout rate? 14.7% last season to 20% this season. How often does that happen for a hitter entering their age 26/27 season?