Machado do-over

[Balta1701]

2 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm really coming over to this side of the argument. Baseball is such a weird sport.  In 2012 it looked like the Angels might be on the verge of something...they looked at 19 year old Mike Trout and said...wow we have to build something around this guys  so they pushed all the chips in and signed Albert Pujolos for 10/$240.  They had 25 year old Mark Trumbo who had hit 31 doubles and 29 homers in his rookie year, Torii Hunter who would have a 5.5 WAR in RF, and a pitching staff of Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Zach Greinke, CJ Wilson and Jerred Weaver.  They had stars all over the place...and they finished 3rd and only won 88 games (Trout had a 10.5 War that year)...I think largely because they had too many guys that were worthless.  The White Sox look like they might have all the stars they need...but need to build depth.  Replacing horrible with competent seems like a smart strategy...and the Sox still have a lot of horrible around.  

This is literally exactly, to the letter, the logic of the 2015 and 2016 white sox. "We'll trade everything we possibly can afford to give up for one more star (Samardzija/Frazier) and then we'll just bring the positions that were gaping holes the year before up to average and that will be good enough." Melky Cabrera, David Robertson, Adam LaRoche come in to do that job in 2015, Jimmy Rollins, Austin Jackson, Mat Latos, Avila/Navarro come in to do that job in 2016.

[Jack Parkman]

3 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm really coming over to this side of the argument. Baseball is such a weird sport.  In 2012 it looked like the Angels might be on the verge of something...they looked at 19 year old Mike Trout and said...wow we have to build something around this guys  so they pushed all the chips in and signed Albert Pujolos for 10/$240.  They had 25 year old Mark Trumbo who had hit 31 doubles and 29 homers in his rookie year, Torii Hunter who would have a 5.5 WAR in RF, and a pitching staff of Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Zach Greinke, CJ Wilson and Jerred Weaver.  They had stars all over the place...and they finished 3rd and only won 88 games (Trout had a 10.5 War that year)...I think largely because they had too many guys that were worthless.  The White Sox look like they might have all the stars they need...but need to build depth.  Replacing horrible with competent seems like a smart strategy...and the Sox still have a lot of horrible around.  

We're trying to win the Commissioner's Trophy, not the Fiscal Responsibility Trophy. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

This is literally exactly, to the letter, the logic of the 2015 and 2016 white sox. "We'll trade everything we possibly can afford to give up for one more star (Samardzija/Frazier) and then we'll just bring the positions that were gaping holes the year before up to average and that will be good enough." Melky Cabrera, David Robertson, Adam LaRoche come in to do that job in 2015, Jimmy Rollins, Austin Jackson, Mat Latos, Avila/Navarro come in to do that job in 2016.

Yes but in 2015 we had two and a half stars.  With Abreau, Madrigal, Anderson, Moncado, McCann, Collins, Robert, Jimenez, Gio, Cease, Lopez, Kopeck, Bummer and Colome and very soon Vaughan and Rodon...we seem way more ready to compete than at any time in 2015 (or anytime in 90 years).  I think spending $10 mill on Avi, $10 million Wheeler, and bringing in 2 $5 mill solid if unspectacular relievers is better spent than a splash over pay for Bryce Harpers 3 WAR.  There is no question it is sexier to sign the big name...but Poppysox was exactly right about the over pay you have to do to get the big names.  We HAVE the big names just coming up now.   

[Balta1701]

11 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yes but in 2015 we had two and a half stars.  With Abreau, Madrigal, Anderson, Moncado, McCann, Collins, Robert, Jimenez, Gio, Cease, Lopez, Kopeck, Bummer and Colome and very soon Vaughan and Rodon...we seem way more ready to compete than at any time in 2015 (or anytime in 90 years).  I think spending $10 mill on Avi, $10 million Wheeler, and bringing in 2 $5 mill solid if unspectacular relievers is better spent than a splash over pay for Bryce Harpers 3 WAR.  There is no question it is sexier to sign the big name...but Poppysox was exactly right about the over pay you have to do to get the big names.  We HAVE the big names just coming up now.   

There is no earthly way Wheeler gets anything close to that little, and I wouldn't pay that much for Avi. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

52 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

We're trying to win the Commissioner's Trophy, not the Fiscal Responsibility Trophy. 

I'm not saying our ONLY goal is fiscal responsibility. I'm saying if you look at risk and reward...Twins spent about $30 million/year for short term Cruz, Gonzalez, Schoop, Perez and have received tremendous about 8 WAR for it.  Phillies spent $30 forever on one player that is producing about 3WAR.  If the goal is to maximize WAR given a budget it seems it might be better spent $30 on four good guys this year, $30 on maybe a different four next year, $30 on a different four the year after that. Plugging in Melky, David Robertson and Adam Laroache to the 2015 Sox didn't really make sense...but same caliber of players for 2020 Sox could be perfect.

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

There is no earthly way Wheeler gets anything close to that little, and I wouldn't pay that much for Avi. 

I wasn't doing an indepth budget...I was just making a point about shopping second tier instead of the flashy titles.  Make it Baumgartner for $12 and Avi for $8.   However it falls...and ALL this said...if they want to drop $7/$240 for Gerrit Cole...I'm ok with that. I love their future.  

[Balta1701]

10 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I wasn't doing an indepth budget...I was just making a point about shopping second tier instead of the flashy titles.  Make it Baumgartner for $12 and Avi for $8.   However it falls...and ALL this said...if they want to drop $7/$240 for Gerrit Cole...I'm ok with that. I love their future.  

Bumgarner is going to be something close to $20 million per year and a $100 million deal. Maybe a little less, could see $80 and $18 million per year. You are underestimating the cost of these pitchers by half. 

[michelangelosmonkey]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Bumgarner is going to be something close to $20 million per year and a $100 million deal. Maybe a little less, could see $80 and $18 million per year. You are underestimating the cost of these pitchers by more than half. 

I was talking theoretically about how one spends a budget...so it seems you are missing the point by more than half.  I would also rather give Rodon an   extension than 5/$100 million to Bum who's an NL pitcher turning 30 with 2000 IP on his arm an ERA nearly 4.  

[poppysox]

23 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm not saying our ONLY goal is fiscal responsibility. I'm saying if you look at risk and reward...Twins spent about $30 million/year for short term Cruz, Gonzalez, Schoop, Perez and have received tremendous about 8 WAR for it.  Phillies spent $30 forever on one player that is producing about 3WAR.  If the goal is to maximize WAR given a budget it seems it might be better spent $30 on four good guys this year, $30 on maybe a different four next year, $30 on a different four the year after that. Plugging in Melky, David Robertson and Adam Laroache to the 2015 Sox didn't really make sense...but same caliber of players for 2020 Sox could be perfect.

 

I agree 100%

[Balta1701]

16 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I was talking theoretically about how one spends a budget...so it seems you are missing the point by more than half.  I would also rather give Rodon an   extension than 5/$100 million to Bum who's an NL pitcher turning 30 with 2000 IP on his arm an ERA nearly 4.  

WTF? I have no idea wh at this means. Theoretically I can get a gallon of milk for $1 but since it's $2 I don't have milk? 

Put a reasonable number on your post. If you don't know what that is, ask and we can talk about it.

[michelangelosmonkey]

38 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

WTF? I have no idea wh at this means. Theoretically I can get a gallon of milk for $1 but since it's $2 I don't have milk? 

Put a reasonable number on your post. If you don't know what that is, ask and we can talk about it.

I'm sorry I clearly can't help you.  The point wasn't shopping for milk...or Baumgartner...or anyone. It is how does one go about spending a budget for the White Sox in the most effective way....one huge splash, several medium splashes or many small splashes.   When I discuss how to divide the pie and you tell me that you don't like apple pie or that it's easier to cut cherry pies or that pizza isn't really a pie...and suggest I'm some sort of an idiot...it's probably time to stop arguing.     

Edited September 8, 2019 by michelangelosmonkey
misspelling

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

I'm sorry I clearly can't help you.  The point wasn't shopping for milk...or Baumgartner...or anyone. It is how does one go about spending a budget for the White Sox in the most effective way....one huge splash, several medium splashes or many small splashes.   When I discuss how to divide the pie and you tell me that you don't like apple pie or that it's easier to cut cherry pies or that pizza isn't really a pie...and suggest I'm some sort of an idiot...it's probably time to stop arguing.     

So you keep naming guys that will cost $50 million, giving prices for them that total $30 million, and you're wondering why I have a problem with your budget?

[michelangelosmonkey]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

So you keep naming guys that will cost $50 million, giving prices for them that total $30 million, and you're wondering why I have a problem with your budget?

Yes that was exactly the point. Thanks for playing along.   

[caulfield12]

The White Sox have no clue how to go about signing lower budget guys.

Historically, the overall value in terms of $/fWAR for superstars has always been better than for the next level or two.

Of course, that’s only about 2-3 players every offseason, this year, Cole and Rendon.  

But I guess we’ll have another 38 games to watch in 2020 and see firsthand if the Twins and Indians can pull off the trick of competing with limited/mid or small market budgets.

It took internal guys like Kepler and Polanco stepping it up to really turn the Twins around.  We have six positions theoretically covered, so simply need 1.5-2.0ish contributions from RF, DH and catcher.

The pitching staff is the much bigger question mark.

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

Isn't it possible the market has changed?   Top two by a wide range this past year (total $ committed) were Machado and Harper and their $/War isnt great...and the year before it was Hosmer and Darvish and their return has been bad and in 2016 it was Cespedes and Chapman...that's a lot of money thrown at six players that have averaged less than 2 WAR per season since their big contracts.  It's possible the new smart move is to vulture teams that are imploding and get guys like Yelich as the Brewers did, or Verlander like the AStros did.  Of course the key to that is having a bunch of minor league assets which has been discouraging for the Sox this year (past the top five or so).      

[GradMc]

On 8/18/2019 at 6:55 AM, michelangelosmonkey said:

Yeah, so the question posted was,  a theoretical exercise....if you could go back in time with the sack of $320 million would you still have signed Machado or Harper.  Given the question I said there was a third option which is allocating those resources to someone else and I gave ideas.  The great thing about Soxtalk is...no matter what the conversation, no matter where you go on the site...there's always some poster saying HAHN SUCKS! REINSDORF SUCKS!  THE TEAM SUCKS! THE PAST IS THE FUTURE!  Thank you for your enlightening thoughts.  

Well when I see Halley's Comet more often than I do my favorite baseball team compete for a WS Championship, what else am I to conclude other than this organization lacks stellar decision-makers in the front-office and stellar difference-makers on the field?

And in the sports world,  the buck stops with ownershipship.

The phase "Organizations win championships" was something Reinsdorf whined to Krause when they felt they weren't getting the glory, laud and honor due them during the Jordan years.

Well, Reinsdorf, it works both ways.

 

[michelangelosmonkey]

5 hours ago, GradMc said:

Well when I see Halley's Comet more often than I do my favorite baseball team compete for a WS Championship, what else am I to conclude other than this organization lacks stellar decision-makers in the front-office and stellar difference-makers on the field?

And in the sports world,  the buck stops with ownershipship.

The phase "Organizations win championships" was something Reinsdorf whined to Krause when they felt they weren't getting the glory, laud and honor due them during the Jordan years.

Well, Reinsdorf, it works both ways.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers from 1933 to 1971 won a total of zero playoff games.  The next eight years they went to the playoffs 8 times and won 4 Super Bowls.  Art Rooney owned the team the whole time.  The past is not the future.  If you can't get excited about what's happening now with the White Sox future there's really no point in being a White Sox fan.  

[poppysox]

13 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

So you keep naming guys that will cost $50 million, giving prices for them that total $30 million, and you're wondering why I have a problem with your budget?

The names are not the issue.  He is stating a philosophy of spreading dollars over more than one player to minimize risk.  

[GreenSox]

11 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

The pitching staff is the much bigger question mark.

 

Indeed it is.

[Jack Parkman]

I think Wheeler is going to get over $100M from someone, but I seem to be in the minority. Eovaldi got $80m. 

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think Wheeler is going to get over $100M from someone, but I seem to be in the minority. Eovaldi got $80m. 

Eovaldi got 4/$67.5M.

[Jack Parkman]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Eovaldi got 4/$67.5M.

Did he? I thought he got 80. Weird. 

[Thad Bosley]

9 hours ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Pittsburgh Steelers from 1933 to 1971 won a total of zero playoff games.  The next eight years they went to the playoffs 8 times and won 4 Super Bowls.  Art Rooney owned the team the whole time.  The past is not the future.  If you can't get excited about what's happening now with the White Sox future there's really no point in being a White Sox fan.  

And your point is?  That Jerry Reinsdorf is Art Rooney V2.0, and that we should just forget the last 39 years of his horrible record as owner of our White Sox and just sit back and be supremely confident about things to come?  

The past is the future as it relates to the current owner.  No reason whatsof*cking ever that this fan base should give him or his FO a vote of confidence on anything at this point.  They simply haven’t earned it, not one iota. 

All the weary fan base can do at this point, after all of the losing of recent years, and after over a decade now of no postseason play, is simply hope for the best.  To expect anything more from any fan is beyond ludicrous on your part.  

[michelangelosmonkey]

23 minutes ago, Thad Bosley said:

And your point is?  That Jerry Reinsdorf is Art Rooney V2.0, and that we should just forget the last 39 years of his horrible record as owner of our White Sox and just sit back and be supremely confident about things to come?  

The past is the future as it relates to the current owner.  No reason whatsof*cking ever that this fan base should give him or his FO a vote of confidence on anything at this point.  They simply haven’t earned it, not one iota. 

All the weary fan base can do at this point, after all of the losing of recent years, and after over a decade now of no postseason play, is simply hope for the best.  To expect anything more from any fan is beyond ludicrous on your part.  

Please...go get a new hobby.  Hating the White Sox and constant whining about the management on every thread and every conversation makes the whole sight boring.  Yes rebuilding is hard and suffering through losing seasons to become a great team is taxing...but this isn't random...the rebuild has been well calculated and well executed.   If you can't enjoy where we are right now in the evolution of the team, seemingly on the cusp of greatness...there's no hope that you will ever enjoy the team.  Go find something that makes you happy.     

[Jack Parkman]

1 hour ago, michelangelosmonkey said:

Please...go get a new hobby.  Hating the White Sox and constant whining about the management on every thread and every conversation makes the whole sight boring.  Yes rebuilding is hard and suffering through losing seasons to become a great team is taxing...but this isn't random...the rebuild has been well calculated and well executed.   If you can't enjoy where we are right now in the evolution of the team, seemingly on the cusp of greatness...there's no hope that you will ever enjoy the team.  Go find something that makes you happy.     

The whining about management is well deserved and earned. @Tony remember all of the b****ing about Dollar Bill 15 years ago? We're at the point the Hawks were in July 2007. We have to wait for ownership to change, but the pieces are in place. I just hope that Jerry pulls an Illitch and decides he wants another WS before he croaks. 

Edited September 8, 2019 by Jack Parkman