8/24 Games

[SoxAce]

He's old, but Mac Welsh has no business still being in rookie ball. 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, SoxBlanco said:

Where will he start next year? And if things go well, what level is a realistic spot for him to finish at?

Well, we can use Spencer Adams as our lone proxy recently. 

Year 2 was Kanny and finished up a months worth of starts in W-S. I’d be shocked, even if he was dominant, if more than two levels was feasible given IP buildup.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

Well, we can use Spencer Adams as our lone proxy recently. 

Year 2 was Kanny and finished up a months worth of starts in W-S. I’d be shocked, even if he was dominant, if more than two levels was feasible given IP buildup.

Adams definitely is a good comp, but I would still be shocked to see Dalquist reach two levels next year. Sox seem to operate much more conservatively than they did when Adams was his age.

Edited August 25, 2019 by CWSpalehoseCWS

[bmags]

6 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Adams definitely is a good comp, but I would still be shocked to see Dalquist reach two levels next year. Sox seem to operate much more conservatively than they did when Adams was his age.

Yes, possibly. W-S by year 3 with a hope he splits that with time in Birmingham makes a lot of sense.

[thxfrthmmrs]

22 hours ago, Quin said:

He's in San Antonio, eating churros, preparing for his future role as a DH.

Yea, let me put this one to bed.

No one has called Bailey fat. There is a fine line between a "fat" baseball player (Bartolo, CC, and someone nicknamed after a bear native to China) and a less rangy outfielder.

Bailey stands at 6'4 215 lbs at 17 years old. While that is great size for a physically matured player, it is uncommon for a 17 year old baseball player who hasn't filled out his frame. Let's put into context of how unusual that is. I looked up 10+ current DSL rosters and Bailey is unmatched in his height and weight combo. There isn't another teenage position player (non 1B) who matches his size.

Now let's look at some players who actually made it to the majors. Here's a list of the current LatAm players who stands 6'4 + and their first reported weight vs. their current weight. Bailey easily beats all of these guys on the weight department by a good margin.

Jorge Soler	20 yrs old	6'4/205	6'4/230	+25
Domingo Santana	17 yrs old	6'4/190	6'5/220	+30
Nomar Mazara	16 yrs old	6'4/185	6'4/215	+30
Ronald Guzman	16 yrs old	6'4/195	6'4/225	+30
Aristdes Aqunio	17 yrs old	6'4/190	6'4/220	+30
Yordan Alvarez	19 yrs old	6'4/190	6'5/225	+35
Jose Martinez	18 yrs old	6'5/170	6'6/215	+45
Avi Garcia	17 yrs old	6'4/190	6'4/250	+60
Miguel Cabrera	20 yrs old	6'2/180	6'4/250	+60
Miguel Sano	16 yrs old	6'4/190	6'4/260	+70
Franmil Reyes	17 yrs old	6'5/190	6'5/275	+85

Some of these guys are still in their early 20's and and bound to put on some more weight past by their mid 20's. Let's just say Bailey stays on the low end and puts up only 30 lbs by 25 (unlikely), he will be running around the OF at 6'4 250. He isn't "fat" at that weight, but it will limit his range for sure. Also worth pointing out that none of the guys above started out at LF to begin their career.

I have acknowledged there is a small chance he could stay at OF at that weight AND become a passable defender. But the safe bet is he's a 1B/DH type or an OF who's a negative defender out there. But I think even mentioning the possibility of 1B/DH by projecting his future growth is making some people butthurt over here. Obviously having some scouting report will shed light into Bailey's tool and whether he overcomes the odds, but looking at that list above, if he overcomes the odds and becomes a passable OF defensively, it's the exception not the rule.