The juiced ball

[Kyyle23]

I keep reading about the ball being juiced, beat writers talk about it, National writers talk about it, players talk about it.   Last time they blamed the equipment, MLB went before Congress shortly afterwards and Roger Clemens couldn't drink enough water, McGuire looked like he wanted to cry, Rafael Palmeiro shook his finger at everyone, and Sammy Sosa forgot how to speak English.

just curious what you guys think about the current explosion of homeruns this season 

[Jerksticks]

I think they didn’t like the early 10’s with the pitchers dominating.  Man that was cool to me though.

I have a theory that this is probably a joint effort between MLB and the Players aassociation to extend careers back closer to 40.  Hitting 33-35 years old and losing your job isn’t cool so I definitely think this was an effort to extend the careers of the modern baseball player back to what they were.  Is that crazy? 

[GenericUserName]

25 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I keep reading about the ball being juiced, beat writers talk about it, National writers talk about it, players talk about it.   Last time they blamed the equipment, MLB went before Congress shortly afterwards and Roger Clemens couldn't drink enough water, McGuire looked like he wanted to cry, Rafael Palmeiro shook his finger at everyone, and Sammy Sosa forgot how to speak English.

just curious what you guys think about the current explosion of homeruns this season 

I don't think there is any real debate that it is the ball. With all the technology at the games now they can literally show that the ball is traveling further for any given velocity and launch angle. They have also tracked that the ball doesn't slow down as much between coming out of the pitcher's hand and crossing the plate. Then there are all the numbers with the AAA leagues using the MLB ball instead of the MiLB ball and how the home run rates skyrocketed. The most important thing to note with regards to the AAA ball change is how players hit for more home runs in AAA than they did in AA in the same season, which would rule out any effects of steroids unless you believe all these players only started taking steroids once they got to AAA. On top of all of that statistical evidence, there is also the anecdotal evidence of all the pitchers who say the ball feels different this year and it effects how they pitch.

[Kyyle23]

13 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

I don't think there is any real debate that it is the ball. With all the technology at the games now they can literally show that the ball is traveling further for any given velocity and launch angle. They have also tracked that the ball doesn't slow down as much between coming out of the pitcher's hand and crossing the plate. Then there are all the numbers with the AAA leagues using the MLB ball instead of the MiLB ball and how the home run rates skyrocketed. The most important thing to note with regards to the AAA ball change is how players hit for more home runs in AAA than they did in AA in the same season, which would rule out any effects of steroids unless you believe all these players only started taking steroids once they got to AAA. On top of all of that statistical evidence, there is also the anecdotal evidence of all the pitchers who say the ball feels different this year and it effects how they pitch.

Maybe you are correct, but I remember a lot of the exact same arguments 20 years ago.   Rockies started using humidors and they changed the mud on the ball and blamed the cork from the previous season crop of cork trees and the stitches on the ball and the compression machines that created the ball.  just everything 

and then a reporter saw Andro in McGuires locker

[BackDoorBreach]

The ball is different though.  The laces are tighter, or not as high up, and the pill inside the ball is different.  Allegedly this was not done on purpose. 

The part that is strange to me is MLB has not stated they were going to go back to the ball used before and they own Rawlings.  IIRC it's adding ~5 feet on average compared to the previous ball. If anything I think the lower laces are affecting the pitchers more than the ball just being some type of tennis ball.  Swing path change over the last few years is also playing into it.

[ptatc]

47 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

I keep reading about the ball being juiced, beat writers talk about it, National writers talk about it, players talk about it.   Last time they blamed the equipment, MLB went before Congress shortly afterwards and Roger Clemens couldn't drink enough water, McGuire looked like he wanted to cry, Rafael Palmeiro shook his finger at everyone, and Sammy Sosa forgot how to speak English.

just curious what you guys think about the current explosion of homeruns this season 

Like all things, it's probably some of both. I don't think I've seen such upper cut swings ever in history. Of course there will be more home runs if everyone swings like that. Not coincidentally strikeouts are up as well. 

[ptatc]

5 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

The ball is different though.  The laces are tighter, or not as high up, and the pill inside the ball is different.  Allegedly this was not done on purpose. 

The part that is strange to me is MLB has not stated they were going to go back to the ball used before and they own Rawlings.  IIRC it's adding ~5 feet on average compared to the previous ball. If anything I think the lower laces are affecting the pitchers more than the ball just being some type of tennis ball.  Swing path change over the last few years is also playing into it.

Pitchers complain about the laces changing every time homeruns go up. If it's just the laces and pitchers can't get it to move like they want, why are pitchers getting more strikeouts than ever before as well?

[Balta1701]

The one thing that really establishes that there has almost certainly been a change in the ball itself is AAA. In one year, they went from the AA ball to the major league ball, and nearly doubled the number of home runs in the international league and the pacific coast league. They had their full season 2018 home run totals by the all star break. It is simply inconceivable that the only effect is the players driving this; if there were a big load of people at AA last year who were on steroids, the stats wouldn't have shifted so abruptly at the start of this season as guys get called up to AAA during the year if they're performing well. In that case, it is literally an on off switch - change the ball and the HR rate responds immediately. 

Other factors can certainly be in play. There could be a new PED that we don't know about yet. Launch angles are affecting things. But none of that could switch the performance in AAA so rapidly.

[TaylorStSox]

It's both. All these guys are still juiced. The tests will always be one step behind the drugs. 

[ptatc]

1 minute ago, TaylorStSox said:

It's both. All these guys are still juiced. The tests will always be one step behind the drugs. 

This is much less true than ever before. With the new blood testing they no longer need to test for specific drugs. They test for the level of of the hormones in the blood. It no longer matters why its increased.  In the past they used urine samples to test for specific drugs.

The new way to use steroids is by microdosing. They take little amounts at irregular intervals to get a boost, like they used to use amphetamines.  This way it does raise the hormone level but they can get a boost. It doesnt in Cease the strength as much as decrease mental and physical fatigue for certain games.

[HoosierSox]

7 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

It's both. All these guys are still juiced. The tests will always be one step behind the drugs. 

Check the whole Twins team. 

[Kyyle23]

1 minute ago, ptatc said:

This is much less true than ever before. With the new blood testing they no longer need to test for specific drugs. They test for the level of of the hormones in the blood. It no longer matters why its increased.  In the past they used urine samples to test for specific drugs.

The new way to use steroids is by microdosing. They take little amounts at irregular intervals to get a boost, like they used to use amphetamines.  This way it does raise the hormone level but they can get a boost. It doesnt in Cease the strength as much as decrease mental and physical fatigue for certain games.

THE FIRST PLAYER ACCUSATION ? 

[raBBit]

I am annoyed by it. They also don't use the "mud" they used to put on the ball.

It's obvious the MLB values home runs for what it does for the games excitement but we need more balls in play more than anything. 

[GenericUserName]

58 minutes ago, ptatc said:

Pitchers complain about the laces changing every time homeruns go up. If it's just the laces and pitchers can't get it to move like they want, why are pitchers getting more strikeouts than ever before as well?

Well pitchers now have a better understanding of pitch movement and pitch tunneling/sequencing than ever before. But also, IIRC the laces aren't as low this year but the leather is different. They are using a new one designed to prevent the blistering issues pitchers were having and apparently it is more aerodynamic than the previous leather. In that case the break over a shorter distance would likely still be there, but over a longer distance the drag would still probably be lower than a non-juiced ball.

[GenericUserName]

3 minutes ago, raBBit said:

I am annoyed by it. They also don't use the "mud" they used to put on the ball.

It's obvious the MLB values home runs for what it does for the games excitement but we need more balls in play more than anything. 

This is what I don't think people get. They think the coverup is players doing steroids again when the real coverup is MLB saying they didn't change the ball on purpose. When we look back on this in a decade, people are going to be asking how no one noticed that MLB changed the ball when it was so obvious and the answer will be that people did, just not the people who were looking for steroids again.

[wegner]

Maybe they are all taking NUGENIX?  Rob Manfred likes it and she will too

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

I keep reading about the ball being juiced, beat writers talk about it, National writers talk about it, players talk about it.   Last time they blamed the equipment, MLB went before Congress shortly afterwards and Roger Clemens couldn't drink enough water, McGuire looked like he wanted to cry, Rafael Palmeiro shook his finger at everyone, and Sammy Sosa forgot how to speak English.

just curious what you guys think about the current explosion of homeruns this season 

The ball, for the record, is obviously wound tighter and therefore juiced. 

It doesn't mean players arent using enhancements, but the ball is 100% different.

You honestly need look no further than AAA numbers last year vs this year as the clearest indicator that the ball is dramatically different. If you look at AA numbers vs AAA it is glaringly obvious.

[Jack Parkman]

44 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The ball, for the record, is obviously wound tighter and therefore juiced. 

It doesn't mean players arent using enhancements, but the ball is 100% different.

You honestly need look no further than AAA numbers last year vs this year as the clearest indicator that the ball is dramatically different. If you look at AA numbers vs AAA it is glaringly obvious.

This. Nice post, and you read my mind. Honestly, I don't think MLB cares about the balls. The difference between the ball being juiced and the players being juiced is this: 

If the players were juiced, you'd see individuals hitting 50-70 HRs, but not across the board power numbers going up. If the ball is juiced, you'd see across the board power numbers going up, but not a lot of individual extreme outliers. The latter is what is happening. We're not even having that many 40-50 HR hitters, but there are a ton of 20-35 HR hitters. There might be one or two 50+ guys. 

Edited September 18, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[TaylorStSox]

1 hour ago, ptatc said:

This is much less true than ever before. With the new blood testing they no longer need to test for specific drugs. They test for the level of of the hormones in the blood. It no longer matters why its increased.  In the past they used urine samples to test for specific drugs.

The new way to use steroids is by microdosing. They take little amounts at irregular intervals to get a boost, like they used to use amphetamines.  This way it does raise the hormone level but they can get a boost. It doesnt in Cease the strength as much as decrease mental and physical fatigue for certain games.

They can alter their hormone balance to mask the tests. If Olympic weight lifters can continue to beat the tests, you better believe far richer athletes are beating them too. Come on.

With Sarms available over the counter right now, it's easier than ever. 

Everyone who thinks these guys are clean should watch Icarus and pay attention to cycling/Olympic weight lifting. 

Edited September 18, 2019 by TaylorStSox

[ptatc]

2 hours ago, Kyyle23 said:

THE FIRST PLAYER ACCUSATION ? 

Oops. I have no idea how it auto corrected that way. If he did, he's doing it wrong.

[TaylorStSox]

Also, cycling (not the biking kind) is way more sophisticated than its ever been. The guys that get caught are the ones that get lazy or get bad advice. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

34 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Also, cycling (not the biking kind) is way more sophisticated than its ever been. The guys that get caught are the ones that get lazy or get bad advice. 

Not really - unless you're talking about micro-dosing which does not have the same impact as constantly cycling. It's harder to catch and easier to maintain but the level of benefit is significantly lower.

Chemists will always be ahead of testers, but the risk isn't really worth the reward at the top level. If it's the difference between you making it and lasting in the big leagues and not, you're more likely to use I think. There aren't as many stars doing it today as was the case 25 years ago because the reward doesn't outweigh the risks for many of them anymore.

Edited September 18, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[TaylorStSox]

22 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Not really - unless you're talking about micro-dosing which does not have the same impact as constantly cycling. It's harder to catch and easier to maintain but the level of benefit is significantly lower.

Chemists will always be ahead of testers, but the risk isn't really worth the reward at the top level. If it's the difference between you making it and lasting in the big leagues and not, you're more likely to use I think. There aren't as many stars doing it today as was the case 25 years ago because the reward doesn't outweigh the risks for many of them anymore.

The reward definitely outweighs the risk when you're 5'6 like Altuve or 39 like Cruz. We're talking a $100m or more risk here. Of course it's worth it for some. 

 

I also wouldn't use regular people logic when we're talking about athletes. 

Edited September 18, 2019 by TaylorStSox

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

The reward definitely outweighs the risk when you're 5'6 like Altuve or 39 like Cruz. We're talking a $100m or more risk here. Of course it's worth it for some. 

 

I also wouldn't use regular people logic when we're talking about athletes. 

Now you're accusing a guy like Altuve of juicing just because he doesn't fit your predisposed mold of a baseball player. 

If the argument is Altuve is 100+ million dollars better at his job because of steroids, I'd argue that with you all day. 

[TaylorStSox]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Now you're accusing a guy like Altuve of juicing just because he doesn't fit your predisposed mold of a baseball player. 

If the argument is Altuve is 100+ million dollars better at his job because of steroids, I'd argue that with you all day. 

Hell yeah Altuve is juicing. Jesus man. It's obvious. It's not even a question. Athletes throughout history have been willing to risk it all for a chance to be the best. Don't be ridiculously naive. The danger is one of the biggest draws.