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The 40 Man Roster Puzzle


Chicago White Sox

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With the season quickly approaching its conclusion and a big offseason ahead of us, I think it’s time to start looking at the 40 man roster.  Below I will separate the current roster into three groups (guys that are locks, guys that will certainly be removed, and guys on the bubble).  Additionally, I will have similar groupings for the minor leaguers that will be eligible for the rule 5 draft.  I will flag anyone who will likely move to the 60 DL at the start of the season with an asterisk.  One other important call-out is I’m assuming Abreu will be back and he’ll be included in the lock section.

The goal is simple: pick the guys from the two bubble lists that should be on the 40 man prior to the Rule 5.  Also, remember that we’ll need some open spots to add free agents, so thinking 40 guys will be on the roster would be a poor assumption.

Goners:

  • Existing (7): Castillo, Skole, Jay, Tilson, Nova, Detwiler, Santiago
  • Prospects (7): Adams, Banks, Kubat, Turner, Foster, Thompson, Forbes

Locks: 25 Total Spots

  • Existing (23): Abreu, Anderson, Moncada, Jimenez, McCann, Collins, Mendick, Garcia, Basabe, Adolfo, Giolito, Lopez, Cease, Rodon*, Kopech, Colome, Bummer, Fry, Herrera, Cordero, Marshall, Hamilton, Burr*
  • Prospects (2): Dunning, Lambert*

Bubble: 19 Total Guys

  • Existing (14): Engel, Cordell, Palka, Sanchez, Goins, Zavala, Banuelos, Covey, Frare, Fulmer, Medeiros, Osich, Ruiz, Vieira
  • Prospects (5): Rutherford, Mercedes, Burdi, Hansen, Flores
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For me, I’m assuming they’ll want six free spots available for free agents and acquisitions.  That would leave a total of nine open spots for the 19 guys on the bubble.

I think they’ll keep one of the existing OFs, with Cordell being the favorite IMO.  I think they keep one of Goins or Sanchez depending on what Yolmer is wiling to agree to.  Zavala is probably close to a lock unless they add a decent veteran catcher to a minor league deal and feel protected there.  And while I don’t consider Blake a lock, I think he’d have to crumble in the AFL in order not to get protected (which is very possible).  So let’s call it four positional guys that will be protected in Cordell, Goins (I think Yolmer gets non-tendered), Zavala, & Rutherford.

On the pitching side, I think Burdi, Frare, & Fulmer are the closest things to locks. I do expect Carson to be traded at some point given his lack of options, but for now he’s part of the 40 man.  Right or wrong, I think those last two spots go to Covey & Ruiz.  Both have options and can theoretically provide depth at AAA. I expect the rest of these guys to be out-righted to AAA and be Rule 5 eligible, but don’t see much risk there.  Hansen is the only exception, but given how bad he’s been and his age, I don’t see a team (even a rebuilding one) thinking that’s a project worth tackling at the major league level.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

For me, I’m assuming they’ll want six free spots available for free agents and acquisitions.  That would leave a total of nine open spots for the 19 guys on the bubble.

I think they’ll keep one of the existing OFs, with Cordell being the favorite IMO.  I think they keep one of Goins or Sanchez depending on what Yolmer is wiling to agree to.  Zavala is probably close to a lock unless they add a decent veteran catcher to a minor league deal and feel protected there.  And while I don’t consider Blake a lock, I think he’d have to crumble in the AFL in order not to get protected (which is very possible).  So let’s call it four positional guys that will be protected in Cordell, Goins (I think Yolmer gets non-tendered), Zavala, & Rutherford.

On the pitching side, I think Burdi, Frare, & Fulmer are the closest things to locks. I do expect Carson to be traded at some point given his lack of options, but for now he’s part of the 40 man.  Right or wrong, I think those last two spots go to Covey & Ruiz.  Both have options and can theoretically provide depth at AAA. I expect the rest of these guys to be out-righted to AAA and be Rule 5 eligible, but don’t see much risk there.  Hansen is the only exception, but given how bad he’s been and his age, I don’t see a team (even a rebuilding one) thinking that’s a project worth tackling at the major league level.

Ruiz with his .460 BAA stat?  You want him on the 40 man?

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29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I messed up and do think Flores will be protected, but he’s certainly not a slam dunk caliber prospect.

Well your mental exercise here really supports his inclusion on the AFL roster. Sox need to learn more about him for the next step. Perhaps they're showcasing him to be a secondary piece in a trade this offseason.

Edited by raBBit
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Wow.  Sox have so many guys who suck, this exercise isn’t even tough.  They are definitely going to keep Rutherford, Burdi, and probably Hansen over people like Goins, Palka, and Cordell.  Abreu is definitely a lock, but I bet they resign him after the Rule 5.  Banuelos is gone.  Frare was awful this year as were Ruiz, and Vieira.  I think Osich stays.  Fulmer stays.  Maybe Yolmer and Engel.  I doubt anyone takes Zavala but he’s like 26 next year, so not a huge loss.  The only way there’s a roster crunch is if they sign 10 free agents

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1 hour ago, raBBit said:

Well your mental exercise here really supports his inclusion on the AFL roster. Sox need to learn more about him for the next step. Perhaps they're showcasing him to be a secondary piece in a trade this offseason.

To be fair, he did miss quite a bit of time this season so he does need the innings. Flores is a solid prospect though. Not elite, but absolutely worth protecting. 

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7 minutes ago, bubba phillips said:

The only "bubble" that Covey should be on is the one he creates when he farts in the bathtub. 

No way he should be on the 40-man---options or not.  If you want him for AAA depth, I'm sure he'll be available as a free agent.

Beautiful. My laugh for the day.

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1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

Wow.  Sox have so many guys who suck, this exercise isn’t even tough.  They are definitely going to keep Rutherford, Burdi, and probably Hansen over people like Goins, Palka, and Cordell.  Abreu is definitely a lock, but I bet they resign him after the Rule 5.  Banuelos is gone.  Frare was awful this year as were Ruiz, and Vieira.  I think Osich stays.  Fulmer stays.  Maybe Yolmer and Engel.  I doubt anyone takes Zavala but he’s like 26 next year, so not a huge loss.  The only way there’s a roster crunch is if they sign 10 free agents

I think what you’re not accounting for is the fact that we need some of these guys to serve as depth.  If you try to outright guys on the 40 man roster that have options, there is a decent chance they get claimed.  It’s simply not realistic to expect no filler.  

Zavala alone wouldn’t be a huge loss, but not having a AAA catcher that can be called up or down at will could be a problem.  Unless they find an upgrade, the Sox will definitely start the 2020 season with Mendick and one of Goins or Sanchez filling the 2B & backup IF roles (until Madrigal is called up).  One of those OFs will likely be back and on the major league roster until Robert is able to snag a spot and then go to AAA.  And obviously we’re going to need a ton of pitchers and some of those will need to be lesser quality options who are able waste away in AAA until needed.

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think what you’re not accounting for is the fact that we need some of these guys to serve as depth.  If you try to outright guys on the 40 man roster that have options, there is a decent chance they get claimed.  It’s simply not realistic to expect no filler.  

Zavala alone wouldn’t be a huge loss, but not having a AAA catcher that can be called up or down at will could be a problem.  Unless they find an upgrade, the Sox will definitely start the 2020 season with Mendick and one of Goins or Sanchez filling the 2B & backup IF roles (until Madrigal is called up).  One of those OFs will likely be back and on the major league roster until Robert is able to snag a spot and then go to AAA.  And obviously we’re going to need a ton of pitchers and some of those will need to be lesser quality options who are able waste away in AAA until needed.

We won't have a roster crunch...but someone is going that we all "kind of" like.

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