Cause for concern on offense?

[thxfrthmmrs]

It’s no secret that Sox as a team and as an organization are terribly disciplined on offense, but looking at the underlying numbers makes it even more scary.

2019 YTD rankings (Low rank = bad)

BB%: 30th

K%: 27th

O Swing (out of zone swing): 27th

O Contact (contact on out of zone swing):  29th

Z Swing (zone swing): 15th

Z Contact (contact on zone swing): 23rd

Swinging Strike: 29th

BABIP: 1st (highest)

In summary, Sox are taking a lot of bad swings and are unsurprisingly missing on those swings. You could call them aggressive, but their swing % in the zone is right around league average. An aggressive team would be swinging at those pitches at a higher rate. It’s seems more like the case they’re swinging at pitches outside of thezone because they couldn’t read if they were. They also are pretty poor on making contact in general, as evident by a less than ideal Z Contact rate. And despite a league best BABIP they’re still a bottom 5 offense in terms of runs scored.

I said as an organization because the same K/BB issue is prevalent in the low minors. AZL, GF and Kanny are among the worst disciplined teams in their leagues.

Looking at ahead to next year, you’d expect Eloy and Moncada to make some improvements due to natural progression, but the case against it is this team hasn’t helped Anderson, Avery and Leury improve their plate discipline over the years. Madrigal should be a welcomed change with his sound hitting approach, but as talented as Robert is, his approach still needs a lot of work.

Is this an organizational philosophy and Sox just don’t care about plate discipline, or they just haven’t emphasized plate discipline to their “young” hitters yet.

I think if unaddressed, they may still have enough talent to overcome this weakness and become a playoff caliber offense if they bring in a big bat or two, but they have potential to be a much better team if they emphasize more on strong plate discipline.

[Chicago White Sox]

I’ve been complaining about this in the gamethreads for about a week now.  Honestly, we desperately need to add a couple high OBP guys to the mix this coming offseason.  I apologize for repeating it, but my dream would be signing Grandal and then trading for Nimmo.  That would allow us to rock something like this by May:

1. Tim Anderson, SS
2. Yoan Moncada, 3B#
3. Eloy Jimenez, LF
4. Yasmani Grandal, C#
5. Jose Abreu, 1B
6. Brandon Nimmo, RF*
7. Luis Robert, CF
8. Zack Collins, DH*
9. Nick Madrigal, 2B

That’s a vastly better lineup and one that should score a ton of runs.

Edited September 23, 2019 by Chicago White Sox

[Jack Parkman]

I wonder a bit about Moncada because he's sporting a .406 BABIP. I don't know what is actually luck and good with him because he smokes baseballs. 

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I wonder a bit about Moncada because he's sporting a .406 BABIP. I don't know what is actually luck and good with him because he smokes baseballs. 

Yah I think he’ll always have a BABIP over .350 or so. He just hits piss missiles all over the field.  

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah I think he’ll always have a BABIP over .350 or so. He just hits piss missiles all over the field.  

He does. It's going to be interesting next year. Most of the time he makes contact it's hard. 

Edited September 23, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[thxfrthmmrs]

5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ve been complaining about this in the gamethreads for about a week now.  Honestly, we desperately need to add a couple high OBP guys to the mix this coming offseason.  I apologize for repeating it, but my dream would be signing Grandal and then trading for Nimmo.  That would allow us to rock something like this by May:

1. Tim Anderson, SS
2. Yoan Moncada, 3B#
3. Eloy Jimenez, LF
4. Yasmani Grandal, C#
5. Jose Abreu, 1B
6. Brandon Nimmo, RF*
7. Luis Robert, CF
8. Zack Collins, DH*
9. Nick Madrigal, 2B

That’s a vastly better lineup and one that should score a ton of runs.

I would be down with Grandal and Nimmo addition, but think Nimmo should be leading off with TA in the 2 hole.

Part of the reason for my post was also I’m not sure how much emphasis this team places on plate discipline, which is why I’m skeptical they would go after the Grandal/Nimmo type. It would be so White Sox to go after Puig/Dickerson, making it the worst disciplined team by far.

[Chicago White Sox]

22 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I would be down with Grandal and Nimmo addition, but think Nimmo should be leading off with TA in the 2 hole.

Part of the reason for my post was also I’m not sure how much emphasis this team places on plate discipline, which is why I’m skeptical they would go after the Grandal/Nimmo type. It would be so White Sox to go after Puig/Dickerson, making it the worst disciplined team by far.

I think this offseason will be the real test.  If they go and add someone like Mazara then it’s clear they’re the same old White Sox.

[SoxAce]

Madrigal will help the K%. Full year of Collins (and Vaughn when he gets here) will help the BB%. I expect Eloy to walk more next season and probably Moncada too.

I'm probably one of the few that doesn't want Abreu back (mostly because of how Ricky will continue to bat him 3rd, play him way more than he should at 1B. I won't even count his baserunning, baseball I.Q., etc in this) but I know he will be and hopefully he becomes more disciplined as a hitter knowing he has protection around him. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think this offseason will be the real test.  If they go and add someone like Mazara then it’s clear they’re the same old White Sox.

Mazara, Nimmo and Polanco are the three most obvious "under contract" players to target at the moment.

Haniger, depending on cost.

Nimmo will be 27 at the beginning of next year and has that one 4.5 season to his name.

 

Odds are EXPONENTIALLY better for likes of Nimmo/Polanco than Mazara based on his uninspiring statistical history.

 

[thxfrthmmrs]

8 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Madrigal will help the K%. Full year of Collins (and Vaughn when he gets here) will help the BB%. I expect Eloy to walk more next season and probably Moncada too.

I'm probably one of the few that doesn't want Abreu back (mostly because of how Ricky will continue to bat him 3rd, play him way more than he should at 1B. I won't even count his baserunning, baseball I.Q., etc in this) but I know he will be and hopefully he becomes more disciplined as a hitter knowing he has protection around him. 

I think that's the hope, I just don't know how much they would improved in this system. Last 3 years, Sox ranked among the worst in K%, BB% and O Swing% and has actually gotten worse each year. Some of it is personnel because we were fielding such a shitty team, but the holdovers like Abreu, TA, Leury, and Moncada (this one is understandable) has gotten worse each year as well. Even Avi has gotten worse progressively worse in 2017 and 18 before bouncing back slightly this year.

At some point, we have to pinpoint and find out where the issue is coming from, especially since the same issue is happening in the low minors, and it isn't always just the players.

Edited September 23, 2019 by thxfrthmmrs

[bmags]

It is definitely dragged down by being unable to uncover depth players that can handle mlb pitching.

The Anderson quote that he hadn't really been taught any of the art of hitting before coming up to MLB with steverson was pretty telling. They are only now, reportedly, being supplied with information on how pitchers will attack them and how to counter it, and I think that's a big part of this with all these young players coming up to mlb completely overwhelmed.

I think best way to counter probably is to get mlb players who already have a refined approach. 

I am hopeful some of these mets fits are possible, but they are at a weird point as an org.

[Superstar Lamar]

There is no reason to take team stats and extrapolate them as indicative of anything in the future with the 2019 White Sox.  There are maybe 3-4 players who will be here in 2021.

If you limit it to Moncada, Anderson, Jimenez and the numbers are troubling, then there is cause for concern

[ChiSox59]

13 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think this offseason will be the real test.  If they go and add someone like Mazara then it’s clear they’re the same old White Sox.

Ehh, honestly I'd be fine with Mazara. He'd be in my top 10 for wants in RF.  Definitely not first few choices, but I'd rather him than Kole Calhoun at $14M.  

[BamaDoc]

Legitimate question:  Why is anyone fascinated with Mazara?  Baseball reference stats.  .7 WAR.  He is a slightly below league avg bat with negative defense.  He is left-handed which is a positive but his walk rate has roughly gone from .06 to .05 to .04 which is exactly what we don't need.  I see a poor glove, not great bat who strikes out a lot and doesn't walk.  Also, you have to give up something for him.  

Calhoun 2.5 WAR, better defense, walks at nearly.09 rate, also lefty.  OPS  better than league avg 112.  negative k's more.  One year left on deal at 14 million.  Angels up against spending limits so may get for salary relief as they have a high prospect ready.  Prior to hot streak there was talk he could be released for $ savings.  

[ChiSox59]

4 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

Legitimate question:  Why is anyone fascinated with Mazara?  Baseball reference stats.  .7 WAR.  He is a slightly below league avg bat with negative defense.  He is left-handed which is a positive but his walk rate has roughly gone from .06 to .05 to .04 which is exactly what we don't need.  I see a poor glove, not great bat who strikes out a lot and doesn't walk.  Also, you have to give up something for him.  

Calhoun 2.5 WAR, better defense, walks at nearly.09 rate, also lefty.  OPS  better than league avg 112.  negative k's more.  One year left on deal at 14 million.  Angels up against spending limits so may get for salary relief as they have a high prospect ready.  Prior to hot streak there was talk he could be released for $ savings.  

I don't think any is "fascinated" with Mazara.  But he is a 24 year old LH former elite prospect with light tower power and room to improve.  He's definitely not the sexy name he was 3-4 year ago, and he's relatively cheap and has a far bit of upside.  Its unfortunate that he's not a good defender, as that definitely need to be a priority.  But he should cost about 1/3 as much as Calhoun and has significantly better offensive upside.  Again, there are probably 8-9 options I would prefer over Mazara, but if all he costs was something Fulmer + Laz Rivera, I'd rather plug Mazara in RF/DH and see if we catch lightning in the a bottle than roll with internal options.  

[BamaDoc]

In 2000 PA Mazara has 1.8 career WAR.  Comparison, Avisail Garcia in about 3k PA has 7 WAR.  I agree with you about anything is an improvement over what we have out there.  If we could get him for what you propose, I would consider it but hope for better.  The original poster stole some of my thunder.  Working on what will be several long posts/threads and our team numbers are shockingly bad.  Spoiler pitching ain't great either. The game has changed to where people don't care about strikeouts due to the launch angle homer revolution.  The problem is we have guys like Yolmer  2HR/111k and Leury 7HR/135 k who are starters.  FYI McCann 133k, Abreu 148, Anderson 105, Yoan 148(sig improvement), Eloy 130.  Fun fact on Engle (209 ab/ 72k)  If he could hit at his strikeout rate he would be ahead of Anderson at .344 in the batting race!  I can't wait for Madrigal who gets pissed off/embarassed any time he strikes out.  Frank Thomas has not been retired that long.  He struck out over a hundred times in a year three times in 19 years (max 115).  Eight years more walks than K's.  Career walk rate added .118 to OBP.  We should really evaluate a two strike approach for some of these guys and especially developmentally.

Edited September 23, 2019 by BamaDoc

[reiks12]

Im more alarmed thisbis the norm in the minors. So so SO worried.

[thxfrthmmrs]

5 hours ago, bmags said:

It is definitely dragged down by being unable to uncover depth players that can handle mlb pitching.

The Anderson quote that he hadn't really been taught any of the art of hitting before coming up to MLB with steverson was pretty telling. They are only now, reportedly, being supplied with information on how pitchers will attack them and how to counter it, and I think that's a big part of this with all these young players coming up to mlb completely overwhelmed.

I think best way to counter probably is to get mlb players who already have a refined approach. 

I am hopeful some of these mets fits are possible, but they are at a weird point as an org.

On the flip side, if you teach the minor leaguers to refine their approach and be more selective early on, you are giving them a better chance to succeed. If a guy like Sosa or Bush are better plate disciplined, they’d rank a full grade higher as prospects. I think they need to do that in the long term, short term I agree you have to seek MLB guys who could take smarter ABs to balance out guys like TA or Abreu who are notorious free swingers. Though with success teams are having with advanced statistics, guys who have strong plate discipline won’t be cheap to acquire.

 

[bmags]

1 hour ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

On the flip side, if you teach the minor leaguers to refine their approach and be more selective early on, you are giving them a better chance to succeed. If a guy like Sosa or Bush are better plate disciplined, they’d rank a full grade higher as prospects. I think they need to do that in the long term, short term I agree you have to seek MLB guys who could take smarter ABs to balance out guys like TA or Abreu who are notorious free swingers. Though with success teams are having with advanced statistics, guys who have strong plate discipline won’t be cheap to acquire.

 

I was just diagnosing the issue, not advocating that they continue being so hands off with development while every other team in league gets more hands on

[reiks12]

[Dominikk85]

Well the only guys in that offense from the 2019 mlb team that matter are anderson, moncada, eloy, hopefully collins and depending on whether they bring him back abreu.

Still anderson, eloy and to some extend abreu are bad plate discipline guys with bad k to bb rates. Collins and moncada also whiff but also have a good eye. Madrigal should help some while robert also is a bad plate discipline guy.

However while I prefer guys with low K-BB numbers it is the overall production that counts. High walk and low K rate helps but the only thing that matters is your wRC+ and not how you do it.

I mean the angels had the best plate discipline in baseball this year (lowest o swing, 3rd highest contact) but it got them nowhere but the twins had bad plate discipline (19th contact , 20th chase) and they rake.

Don't get me wrong, better plate discipline is better but it is the overall output that counts. It doesn't matter if you have high on base table setters and power guys to drive them in like 10 years ago, it is basically just team with the highest average wRC+ wins.

Still player dev should of course work on plate discipline as a better K-BB rate helps but there isn't just one way to success.

[thxfrthmmrs]

8 minutes ago, Dominikk85 said:

Well the only guys in that offense from the 2019 mlb team that matter are anderson, moncada, eloy, hopefully collins and depending on whether they bring him back abreu.

Still anderson, eloy and to some extend abreu are bad plate discipline guys with bad k to bb rates. Collins and moncada also whiff but also have a good eye. Madrigal should help some while robert also is a bad plate discipline guy.

However while I prefer guys with low K-BB numbers it is the overall production that counts. High walk and low K rate helps but the only thing that matters is your wRC+ and not how you do it.

I mean the angels had the best plate discipline in baseball this year (lowest o swing, 3rd highest contact) but it got them nowhere but the twins had bad plate discipline (19th contact , 20th chase) and they rake.

Don't get me wrong, better plate discipline is better but it is the overall output that counts. It doesn't matter if you have high on base table setters and power guys to drive them in like 10 years ago, it is basically just team with the highest average wRC+ wins.

Still player dev should of course work on plate discipline as a better K-BB rate helps but there isn't just one way to success.

Ya, as I alluded to they might be away to get away with this major flaw because they have built up a lot of talents through trades and Robert signing. It’s a testament to help freaking talented Moncada, Eloy, and Robert are. Going forward they do not have that luxury if they don’t start emphasizing on plate discipline. What the Twins are doing right now are the exception, not the rule. It’s no coincidence most of the top 10 “plate discipline” teams are playoff teams.