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A Realistic Offseason


BamaDoc

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Honest question?

Wheeler 180 innings at 20 million per year, lose draft pick and pool money, last two years WAR total 7.4  vs  Odorizzi and another starter (Nova Level) , 350 innings , 25 million cost, keep pick, last two years combined WAR 8.4  

 

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25 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

Honest question?

Wheeler 180 innings at 20 million per year, lose draft pick and pool money, last two years WAR total 7.4  vs  Odorizzi and another starter (Nova Level) , 350 innings , 25 million cost, keep pick, last two years combined WAR 8.4  

 

Odorizzi has thrown 180 innings once in his career.  I'm not saying Wheeler is exactly injury proof either but he's been healthy the last 2 years.  His stuff is just better too.  

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Man Joc Pederson appears to be a good fit still.  Even though he has 1 year left he isn't a difficult extension candidate.  I am predicting the official offseason of:

JD Martinez (5 years, 100 million)

Zach Wheeler (5 years, 95 million)

Joc Pederson (trade), try to extend.  

Alex Wood (1 year, 8 million, with incentives to get to 12 million)

Resign Abreu to a 1 year, 14 million dollar deal with an option of 15 million for a 2nd year.

One bullpen arm > 6mil per year.

 

Obviously I'd love one of the two stud SP on the market.. But this would be a fantastic, and more realistic offseason imo

Edited by cjgalloway
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I thought about Wood because he is left handed.  When I saw back injury and shut down in August with a ERA over 6 in August, I lost interest.  With our guys coming back from injury, I think you need guys you can count on.  If he comes on a minors deal with invite ok but I think he is a total wild card thus doesn't fill any hole because I can't count on him.

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7 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I thought about Wood because he is left handed.  When I saw back injury and shut down in August with a ERA over 6 in August, I lost interest.  With our guys coming back from injury, I think you need guys you can count on.  If he comes on a minors deal with invite ok but I think he is a total wild card thus doesn't fill any hole because I can't count on him.

probably due to his contract demands... relatively low risk, but high reward.  He is the perfect guy we should sign as our SECOND starting pitcher addition.  Can go between bullpen and starting seemlessly should we need him to since he has done that in the past

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33 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Odorizzi has thrown 180 innings once in his career.  I'm not saying Wheeler is exactly injury proof either but he's been healthy the last 2 years.  His stuff is just better too.  

Odorizzi also an extreme flyball pitcher.  He would get smoked pitching 15+ times at the Cell.  He's towards the bottom of my top 10-15 SP options.  

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21 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Realistic Offseason Plan:

  • Resign Abreu - 2 years / $28M with $13M club option in 2022
  • Sox lowball Yolmer on 2 year / $7M extension and he takes it
  • Sign Zack Wheeler - 4 years / $70M
  • Sign Grandal - 3 years / $60M
  • Sign Alex Wood - 1 year / $8M
  • RF is tough.  I want Nimmo.  I think we shy away from Castellanos/Ozuna due to poor defense and Abreu staying around clogging up DH.  Will likely be one of Calhoun, Dickerson, Gordon, or perhaps Gardner.  Don't hate the Gardner idea frankly.  Hopefully all on 1 year deals with an option.  Let's just call it 1 year / $10M to be safe (probably conservatively high for most of those guys).   For the sake of this exercise, I am going to select Dickerson.  
  • I think we'll also sign a decent veteran reliever.  Hard to say who - let's go with Chris Martin at 2 years / $12M.

Payroll would be right around $125M, still below league average.

Lineup by May 1: 

Robert CF, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B/DH, Eloy LF, Grandal DH / C, Anderson SS, Dickerson RF, McCann C, Madrigal 2B 

BN: Leury, Yolmer, Collins and Engel

Rotation: Giolito, Wheeler, Cease, Lopez, Wood (with Kopech joining mid-June, Rodon shortly thereafter)

Pen: Colome, Bummer, Fry, Martin, Cordero, Marshall, Herrera and one of Hamilton/Fulmer/Johnson/Burdi/Covey/Ruiz/Vieria, etc. 

Tough to not be excited about that team.  Probably doesn't get you to the playoffs, but they'll be young, cheap and controllable.  All good things.  May be good enough to compete in the AL Central that will certainly still be down.  

 

 

Sign me up. 

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Odorizzi is a fly ball pitcher.  Gives up less hr/fb than average.  Only pitched one game at the Rate 6ip 5h 2 r 2w 8k, probably benefitted pitching to our lineup!

Wood would depend on medicals.  May be toast may be ok.  When he last pitched he was hurt and ineffective. 11 HRs last 35 IP.   I would rather 1-2 million base and incentives if you want to roll the dice but I wouldn't guarantee more.

Edited by BamaDoc
added hr #
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43 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

Odorizzi is a fly ball pitcher.  Gives up less hr/fb than average.  Only pitched one game at the Rate 6ip 5h 2 r 2w 8k, probably benefitted pitching to our lineup!

Wood would depend on medicals.  May be toast may be ok.  When he last pitched he was hurt and ineffective. 11 HRs last 35 IP.   I would rather 1-2 million base and incentives if you want to roll the dice but I wouldn't guarantee more.

Someone is going to give Wood more than $1-2 million.  Similar pitchers were getting $8-12M last offseason.  If you can get him for less than $8M, great.  

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I am not 100% sure about penciling in Madrigal as the starting second basemen quite yet. That was Ozzie's sentiment as well. Because of that I would sign Yolmer, just in case.

I like the idea of signing Grandal because I am not that confident in Collins defense.

I would go after Castellanos like a b1tch and make certain to outbid the Cubs for him.  He could platoon in RF with Leury and at DH with Grandall/Collins.

I like Madison Bumgarner but I don't think the Sox will offer him a deal for as many years as he wants.

Sox don't need to trade any of their core of young players and prospects. It took a while to get these guys so don't blow it with any hair brain ideas now.

 

 

 

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23 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Realistic Offseason Plan:

  • Resign Abreu - 2 years / $28M with $13M club option in 2022
  • Sox lowball Yolmer on 2 year / $7M extension and he takes it
  • Sign Zack Wheeler - 4 years / $70M
  • Sign Grandal - 3 years / $60M
  • Sign Alex Wood - 1 year / $8M
  • RF is tough.  I want Nimmo.  I think we shy away from Castellanos/Ozuna due to poor defense and Abreu staying around clogging up DH.  Will likely be one of Calhoun, Dickerson, Gordon, or perhaps Gardner.  Don't hate the Gardner idea frankly.  Hopefully all on 1 year deals with an option.  Let's just call it 1 year / $10M to be safe (probably conservatively high for most of those guys).   For the sake of this exercise, I am going to select Dickerson.  
  • I think we'll also sign a decent veteran reliever.  Hard to say who - let's go with Chris Martin at 2 years / $12M.

Payroll would be right around $125M, still below league average.

Lineup by May 1: 

Robert CF, Moncada 3B, Abreu 1B/DH, Eloy LF, Grandal DH / C, Anderson SS, Dickerson RF, McCann C, Madrigal 2B 

BN: Leury, Yolmer, Collins and Engel

Rotation: Giolito, Wheeler, Cease, Lopez, Wood (with Kopech joining mid-June, Rodon shortly thereafter)

Pen: Colome, Bummer, Fry, Martin, Cordero, Marshall, Herrera and one of Hamilton/Fulmer/Johnson/Burdi/Covey/Ruiz/Vieria, etc. 

Tough to not be excited about that team.  Probably doesn't get you to the playoffs, but they'll be young, cheap and controllable.  All good things.  May be good enough to compete in the AL Central that will certainly still be down.  

 

 

You forgot three important steps:

1. Increase payroll to $170M in 2021 by signing Betts.

2. Win the World Series.

3. Celebrate.

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46 minutes ago, Tony said:

I would absolutely hang onto Yolmer for another season. Everyone is up in arms about a possible 5 mil price tag, in 2020 5 million really shouldn't stand in the way of anything. He's a terrific defensive player and if this roster was better the last three years, Yolmer would be getting 200 AB's and playing as a defensive replacement, and do a damn good job of it. 

Nah.  His wRC+ last three seasons 95,87, 74.  The bottom has fallen out of his bat.   That 74 this year was with a flukey high BABIP of .324, which is a career high for him.

 I've speculated he's no longer on PEDs after securing a place in the Show.  Whatever the reason he's not longer a "super sub" he's just a shitty utility guy that bad teams have, not good ones.  Sox should be looking to replace him with someone that won't cost 5 million or someone that is actually a 2 WAR talent.  That is not Yolmer.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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52 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think Bumgarner is the most likely "high profile" FA pitcher that the Sox would sign. The next tier is Keuchel and Wheeler, next tier is Alex Wood. I don't think that Cole or Strasburg are options, though I'd be willing to be surprised. 

I certainly would not put Bumgarner in a tier above Wheeler and Keuchel and this point in his career. . But I also see almost 0 chance bumgarner leaves the NL... He likes to hit too much

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18 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Nah.  His wRC+ last three seasons 95,87, 74.  The bottom has fallen out of his bat.   That 74 this year was with a flukey high BABIP of .324, which is a career high for him.

 I've speculated he's no longer on PEDs after securing a place in the Show.  Whatever the reason he's not longer a "super sub" he's just a shitty utility guy that bad teams have, not good ones.  Sox should be looking to replace him with someone that won't cost 5 million or someone that is actually a 2 WAR talent.  That is not Yolmer.

I am not much of Yolmer guy and I would be totally OK with the Sox non-tendering him, but he's averaged 1.67 fWAR the past three seasons.  He basically is just short of a "2 WAR talent", so kind of a weird comment.    

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13 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

I certainly would not put Bumgarner in a tier above Wheeler and Keuchel and this point in his career. . But I also see almost 0 chance bumgarner leaves the NL... He likes to hit too much

I hope he goes to the Brewers, just to improve a rival team to the Cubs.

I would probably put Keuchel, Wheeler, and Bumgarner in the same tier under Cole and Strasburg (assuming opt-out).

Edited by soxfan2014
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10 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I am not much of Yolmer guy and I would be totally OK with the Sox non-tendering him, but he's averaged 1.67 fWAR the past three seasons.  He basically is just short of a "2 WAR talent", so kind of a weird comment.    

It took him nearly 162 games to put up 1 fWAR this year.  His 2017 season is long gone.  He's not that player anymore (if he ever was).  His true talent is like 1.5 fWAR.  There are a lot of guys floating around that can give you 90% of that at 10% the cost.  And, the Sox don't seem to think he can play backup SS.  That severely limits his value as a utility guy.  

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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9 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

It took him nearly 162 games to put up 1 fWAR this year.  His 2017 season is long gone.  He's not that player anymore (if he ever was).  His true talent is like 1.5 fWAR.  There are a lot of guys floating around that can give you 90% of that at 10% the cost.  And, the Sox don't seem to think he can play backup SS.  That severely limits his value as a utility guy.  

We agree...I was just being nitpicky.  Yolmer is fine.  I won't lose a tad of sleep if they keep him around so long as Madrigal is at 2B come mid April.  But I'd also be fine replacing him with someone outside of the org.  

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7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

We agree...I was just being nitpicky.  Yolmer is fine.  I won't lose a tad of sleep if they keep him around so long as Madrigal is at 2B come mid April.  But I'd also be fine replacing him with someone outside of the org.  

Agreed.

Personally, I would like for them to keep one of Leury/Yolmer as a backup, have a defensive first OF on the bench like Engel as a late inning sub, and then have another bat on the bench that has some pop. With a backup catcher, that's a 4-man bench. I wouldn't mind them going with a 5-man bench like teams used to do though.

Edited by soxfan2014
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8 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Agreed.

Personally, I would like for them to keep one of Leury/Yolmer as a backup, have a defensive first OF on the bench like Engel as a late inning sub, and then have another bat on the bench that has some pop. With a backup catcher, that's a 4-man bench. I wouldn't mind them going with a 5-man bench like teams used to do though.

I'd be very surprised to see Leury not on the squad next season.  

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3 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I'd be very surprised to see Leury not on the squad next season.  

Yeah I would too honestly. Do you keep him as the primary backup OF over a better defensive OF or do you go with a 4-man bench of: catcher, backup infielder, 4th OF type, and Leury? It would be nice to have some sort of bat with pop that can start for an extended period of time if guys have some 10-day IL stints.

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18 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Yeah I would too honestly. Do you keep him as the primary backup OF over a better defensive OF or do you go with a 4-man bench of: catcher, backup infielder, 4th OF type, and Leury? It would be nice to have some sort of bat with pop that can start for an extended period of time if guys have some 10-day IL stints.

My bench right now (post Robert and Madrigal promotions) would be Leury, Yolmer, Engel and Collins.  With the 26 man roster, much easier to carry a 4 man bench.

But that bench assumes we add a DH, RF and re-sign Abreu. So we'll see.  And I do agree that having a bench bat with pop would be great.  Ideal world that  could be Moustakas (wouldn't really call him a bench bat, but a guy we move around) or a guy like Derek Deitrich, but we'll just have so see how the roster plays out.  Ultimately I'd be fine with Leury, Yolmer, Engel and Collins if that means we added Grandal, at least a decent RF stop gap and at least 1 mid to top of the rotation SP.  

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