A Realistic Offseason

[poppysox]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Dane Dunning is not going to be in the big leagues this year. Hamilton was straight up bad this year and may never be a useful piece again. Rodon will miss half the season. So, basically in your eyes, 1 month of Rodon, Kopech, Robert, and Madrigal, is the difference between a 70 win team and an 80 win team? This is a joke.

Yes...Robert, Madrigal and Kopech alone will improve the team by ten games.  Dunning, Hamilton, Burr and Rodon may or may not help a little.  Just out of curiosity... do you ever post an original thought instead of taking potshots at what others post?

[Balta1701]

 

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

It is not completely insane to think that Kopech, Robert, Madrigal along with a year of development from our young core players could be the difference between and a 70 and 80 win team. 

He said absolutely nothing about the development of Eloy, Lopez, and Cease. That's totally reasonable including the other guys. He said those additions alone are 10 games, and just repeated it. He included Dunning and Hamilton as contributors but not those guys. 

[ChiSox59]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

 

He said absolutely nothing about the development of Eloy, Lopez, and Cease. That's totally reasonable including the other guys. He said those additions alone are 10 games. He included Dunning and Hamilton as contributors but not those guys. 

I think it was pretty obvious that he was insinuating that. Adding in Wheeler, Grandal, Nimmo (my trade target of choice), Wood/Hill and a solid reliever and you have the makings of a team that COULD be in contention. Big offseason for sure, but nothing earth shattering in terms of dollars spent. 

[SoxBlanco]

What were the WARs of Yolmer, our RF throughout the year, and our revolving door of a 5th starter?

[Balta1701]

11 hours ago, bmags said:

Is that about the thorough list of discussed options?

Worth adding - Josh Reddick will probably be moved for minimal return.

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

What were the WARs of Yolmer, our RF throughout the year, and our revolving door of a 5th starter?

Not exact because they appeared more than just in RF and 5th starter, but my calculations were -3.1 fWAR for RF and -2.1 fWAR for 5th starter. In way you spice it, it’s awful. Replacing with 2 WAR players is at least a 9 fWAR swing. 

[SoxBlanco]

24 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Not exact because they appeared more than just in RF and 5th starter, but my calculations were -3.1 fWAR for RF and -2.1 fWAR for 5th starter. In way you spice it, it’s awful. Replacing with 2 WAR players is at least a 9 fWAR swing. 

Thanks, ChiSox.

@Balta1701, do you think it’s reasonable for Madrigal to have a 1.6 fWAR, Robert to have a 2.6 fWAR, and Kopech to have a 1.6 fWAR?  That would be about 10 extra wins right there. 

[caulfield12]

As soon as we start projecting improvement across the board....reasonable in many cases, we immediately have to start wondering if McCann and Giolito, in particular, will repeat their 2019 performances.

Nova, by fWAR was the sixth most valuable member of the team, he has to be replaced in a non-Covey/Banuelos/Detwiler/Santiago manner.

Bummer is another one, not to mention Colome's shakier second half.

 

[35thstreetswarm]

9 hours ago, poppysox said:

Yes...Robert, Madrigal and Kopech alone will improve the team by ten games.  Dunning, Hamilton, Burr and Rodon may or may not help a little.  Just out of curiosity... do you ever post an original thought instead of taking potshots at what others post?

Negativity, when delivered with a sufficient sneer, signals savvy and worldliness in the speaker and is an acceptable substitute for original thought.  Ask any eye-rollling teenager.

[pcq]

On 10/21/2019 at 10:04 AM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No, I'm expecting Abreu to DH mostly. If the Sox can't see having Abreu mostly DHing thats not my problem. Moose would take over at 1st and hopefully Abreu gets less than 50 games there. You go on and on about Moose not being in the lineup but here's the reality.  see below. The problem with your plan is expecting to make the playoffs next year with a Kopech, Cease and Lopez never having had success in MLB yet. You don't deal for one year rentals expecting to sign them . You just don't. You didn't have a rebuild to throw those years away on a rental. If you want to trade for Nimmo a guy with 3 years , that's not so bad.We had the rebuild to make smart trades. We have a ton of OF's in the system . I don't care what you think of them , they need to have an opportunity to rise , one more year. Just as all the starting pitchers need 1 more year. I wasn't counting on Betts or Springer . I said wait , Pederson is included in that wait. Also Moose (876 OPS 2019 ) and Grandal  (.926 OPS 2019) hit lefties way better than Pederson  (.505 OPS 2019 ) does. Dodgers really wouldn't even bat Pederson against lefties.

JDM/Pederson vs Moose /Grandal isn't the difference between the Sox making the playoff or not . It's just a better, deeper more well rounded team my way.  I expect ELoy to put up JDM type numbers this year or very close.The pitching will be the difference in if the Sox make the playoffs. They fill more positions and have better backups my way. They don't trade assets,they have my guys for more than just a year.

1st Moustakas/Abreu

2nd Madrigal/ Moustakas

3rd Moncada/ Moustkas

SS Anderson

DH Abreu/ Moustakas

C Grandal/McCann

LF Jimenez

CF Robert

RF  Whoever

 

Moustakas an outstanding depth piece and why not compete with Madgical for PT at 2B. 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

9 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Worth adding - Josh Reddick will probably be moved for minimal return.

after watching the Astros again.. He's a guy I would be completely fine with.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

after watching the Astros again.. He's a guy I would be completely fine with.

Woof.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

20 minutes ago, bmags said:

Woof.

I'd much prefer him to Avi.  Obviously I have 5+ guys ahead of him.  But he'd be cheap, and a big improvement. He has averaged 2.5 WAR his past 10 seasons

Edited October 23, 2019 by cjgalloway

[scs787]

10 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

Not exact because they appeared more than just in RF and 5th starter, but my calculations were -3.1 fWAR for RF and -2.1 fWAR for 5th starter. In way you spice it, it’s awful. Replacing with 2 WAR players is at least a 9 fWAR swing. 

Good stuff here....I know the DH spot doesnt hold a lot of fWAR because they don't field, but what'd we get outta them? Wasn't the DH spot historically bad? 

[bmags]

1 minute ago, cjgalloway said:

I'd much prefer him to Avi.  Obviously I have 5+ guys ahead of him.  But he'd be cheap, and a big improvement. He has averaged 2.5 WAR his past 10 seasons

He’s turning 33, it doesn’t last in perpetuity 

[Whisox05]

14 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Dane Dunning is not going to be in the big leagues this year. Hamilton was straight up bad this year and may never be a useful piece again. Rodon will miss half the season. So, basically in your eyes, 1 month of Rodon, Kopech, Robert, and Madrigal, is the difference between a 70 win team and an 80 win team? This is a joke.

You do realize Hamilton had a car accident in spring training and then was hit in the face with a line drive to end his season. Didnt get much time to play plus he was still probably dealing with problems from the car accident 

[Bob Sacamano]

47 minutes ago, bmags said:

He’s turning 33, it doesn’t last in perpetuity 

Yeah he's definitely not near the top of my list but as a salary dump for one year, if they strike out on every other option, I'm good with Reddick.

[pcq]

10 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

As soon as we start projecting improvement across the board....reasonable in many cases, we immediately have to start wondering if McCann and Giolito, in particular, will repeat their 2019 performances.

Nova, by fWAR was the sixth most valuable member of the team, he has to be replaced in a non-Covey/Banuelos/Detwiler/Santiago manner.

Bummer is another one, not to mention Colome's shakier second half.

 

I would definitely keep Nova for the innings. We ran out of pitchers and he did ok overall.  Sox recent injury history not favorable. 

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Yeah he's definitely not near the top of my list but as a salary dump for one year, if they strike out on every other option, I'm good with Reddick.

Fair enough. I like that he doesn't strike out. But he doesn't have much room for offense to drop.

[he gone.]

Still haven't given this a ton of thought or researched what may be available everywhere via trades, etc. It's just a gut feeling, but i think you'll see Hahn make some sort of trade for a controllable RF or DH. Obviously I think finding a cheap DH that's serviceable should be the easiest ... they are a dime a dozen, but based on Hahn's track record .... it hasn't been the case so far. 

My keys in general: Find your team MULTIPLE high OBP guys. Guys who take walks. guys who put the ball in play, etc. Madrigal will be a good start. Eloy should be better next year in that category. Robert can't be worse than Engel and Cordell.  However, we'll likely get regression from guys like Anderson and you can't have a whole team of Anderson's. We need better, longer AB's that force the pitcher into more uncomfortable situations and get to the bullpen quicker. You can't have a team and win CONSISTENTLY with having so many all or nothing guys. We have a decent core, but having so many nothing guys hurts. I mean look at the Cubs (or a lot of modern baseball). You can have a ton of talent, but you need some consistency guys like the (hopefully) Madrigals. 

So that being said as much as I'd like a Puig and some of the other popular names being thrown around - I can't say he's going to make the team much better, because i don't want a bunch of .280BA with a .300OBP. I want guys who will work the count. I'd look to teams like the Pirates and Rockies and Mariners, etc. and see if there's a way to grab one of their younger controllable guys. So without further ado:

 

Sign Grandal, don't resign McCann. McCann was great in 2019 & that's fine. But let's move on. It's the Palka story of 2018. It was a fun career year, but there's a bunch of history here and I don't think he repeats. With Collins and Mercedes and Zavala at AAA I think you take whoever does the best in ST and put them on the roster. Hopefully that's Collins, but we'll see. They start 60-80 games behind the dish, another 30 or so at DH. Grandal does the rest splitting between 1B, DH, and C. Grandal rated 4th in all of MLB in pitchers per AB. I like that he fills a hole as well as a mindset. A guy like him can be very valuable to a young clubhouse. Catcher position is now put to rest for the next 3-4 years. As is DH with Abreu/Collins/Grandal/Vaughn. Those 4 should be able to rotate between 1B, DH, C pretty well. 

 

Backup plan: If you don't sign a Grandal, I'd take a 1 year flier on Justin Smoak. Despite his numbers he really put up some amazing statcast numbers and was subject to a bunch of bad luck. He could fill the DH/1B role along with Collins. In that case, I'd add in an Avila, d'Arnaud (probably too expensive now), or some other very releasable catcher.

Either promote Madrigal quickly, or sign Scooter Gennett. Scooter can probably be had a pretty low price, maybe even on a 1 year deal. Again, depending how the above plays out i think he can also play your 2b, DH role as well. He's also played RF, LF and 3B in his career. I like the idea of him as a super util guy once Madrigal is up. But if he does as well as he did outside of a freak 2019? I think you have yourself a steal. I'd try to find a way to fit him even with a Grandal. 

Sign Brett Gardner. Grandal ranked 4th in the MLB in taking pitches per AB. Gardner ranked 5th. He's old, but hasn't really slowed down. He's the perfect example of a veteran presence and someone who has consistently won. Since he's older you can probably get him for a reasonable price too while your OF prospects hopefully develop. Perfect stop gap. Perfect price. Perfect length. Perfect fit all around IMO. 

 

Ultimate prize, but unlikely JD Martinez. Give me some combination of the above & I'll be happy.

Lineup by May assuming Madrigal and Robert are up:

C - Grandal, 1B Abreu, 2B Madrigal, SS Anderson, 3B Moncada, LF Eloy, CF Robert, RF Gardner, DH either Smoak or Gennett. 

Bench: Collins for 1b, DH, C .... Gennett for LF, RF, 2B, 3B ... Leury Garcia for SS, CF, other fill in. 

 

In terms of pitching I'm all in favor of signing a big name, but if we spend $30mm for 3 years of gardner + $8mm on Gennett + $4mm on Smoak + $70mm on Grandal? I doubt we shell out the big money. So I'd be all for paying market price on Strasburg or Cole. I would be however against signing Wheeler. He's the type of guy like Eovaldi last year. He falls into that category of a pitcher that is in Tier 2 so is more affordable, shows flashes, etc. so gets overpaid because theres more demand cause few teams will make the big splash for a Cole. I pass on him. I would however go after Rich Hill, Wade Miley, Wainwright, Ryu, and Alex Wood. 

 

I prefer a Alex Wood or Rich Hill or Wainwright. All of have injury issues and/or age issues and would come cheaper therefore are realistic which is the point of this thread. Plus with Rodon coming back say... July? August? You really only need a healthy rotation for part of the year. So my rotation would be:

Giolito, Alex Wood, Kopech, Lopez, Cease, Wainwright. That's right I'd go a six man rotation. Keep the arms fresh, especially since Wood is known to be injured, Cease has a history plus is a rookie, Kopech coming off a year away, Wainwright old and frequently injured. That 6 man rotation probably only goes through a few turns before its unhealthy anyways. Rodon back midsummer. Let the best guys play by August in a five man rotation and move the other 2 to the bullpen (assuming all are healthy). Wood shouldn't cost too much more than a Sonny Gray contract of this past year which was ... 4/50? Get Wainwright at 2 years and 20mm? '

And that's my team.  I think this team contends with CLE and MIN next year for a division.

 

 

 

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, scs787 said:

Good stuff here....I know the DH spot doesnt hold a lot of fWAR because they don't field, but what'd we get outta them? Wasn't the DH spot historically bad? 

Again, not good. 

Palka: -1.3

Alonso: -1.3

AJ Reed: -0.5

Skole: -0.5

Delmonico: -0.5

Collins: -0.3

Again, those are cumulative fWAR stats, and they appeared at more than just DH, but its not pretty.

[ChiSox59]

6 minutes ago, BrianAnderson said:

Still haven't given this a ton of thought or researched what may be available everywhere via trades, etc. It's just a gut feeling, but i think you'll see Hahn make some sort of trade for a controllable RF or DH. Obviously I think finding a cheap DH that's serviceable should be the easiest ... they are a dime a dozen, but based on Hahn's track record .... it hasn't been the case so far. 

My keys in general: Find your team MULTIPLE high OBP guys. Guys who take walks. guys who put the ball in play, etc. Madrigal will be a good start. Eloy should be better next year in that category. Robert can't be worse than Engel and Cordell.  However, we'll likely get regression from guys like Anderson and you can't have a whole team of Anderson's. We need better, longer AB's that force the pitcher into more uncomfortable situations and get to the bullpen quicker. You can't have a team and win CONSISTENTLY with having so many all or nothing guys. We have a decent core, but having so many nothing guys hurts. I mean look at the Cubs (or a lot of modern baseball). You can have a ton of talent, but you need some consistency guys like the (hopefully) Madrigals. 

So that being said as much as I'd like a Puig and some of the other popular names being thrown around - I can't say he's going to make the team much better, because i don't want a bunch of .280BA with a .300OBP. I want guys who will work the count. I'd look to teams like the Pirates and Rockies and Mariners, etc. and see if there's a way to grab one of their younger controllable guys. So without further ado:

Sign Grandal, don't resign McCann. McCann was great in 2019 & that's fine. But let's move on. It's the Palka story of 2018. It was a fun career year, but there's a bunch of history here and I don't think he repeats. With Collins and Mercedes and Zavala at AAA I think you take whoever does the best in ST and put them on the roster. Hopefully that's Collins, but we'll see. They start 60-80 games behind the dish, another 30 or so at DH. Grandal does the rest splitting between 1B, DH, and C. Grandal rated 4th in all of MLB in pitchers per AB. I like that he fills a hole as well as a mindset. A guy like him can be very valuable to a young clubhouse. Catcher position is now put to rest for the next 3-4 years. As is DH with Abreu/Collins/Grandal/Vaughn. Those 4 should be able to rotate between 1B, DH, C pretty well. 

You lost me at the bolded.  McCann isn't a FA, is coming of a 2.3 fWAR season and could be had for less than $5 million via arb.  There is a zero percent chance the Sox non-tender McCann. 

[Balta1701]

11 hours ago, SoxBlanco said:

Thanks, ChiSox.

@Balta1701, do you think it’s reasonable for Madrigal to have a 1.6 fWAR, Robert to have a 2.6 fWAR, and Kopech to have a 1.6 fWAR?  That would be about 10 extra wins right there. 

If you want to play that game - you don't get to just look at the 5th starter and the RF and say that those guys upgrade those positions. You're not replacing the RF with Robert, you're replacing Adam Engel, who was a .8 fWAR player. You're not replacing your DH with Madrigal, you're replacing your 1.0 fWAR Yolmer Sanchez. You're not replacing your 5th starter with Kopech - right now you're replacing Ivan Nova and his 2.0 fWAR with him. So, from your 70 win team, with the numbers you just quoted, you have added 2.4 fWAR. That does not make you a .500 team.

If you throw in improvement at several more positions - Eloy 2 extra fWAR Cease 2 extra fWAR, Lopez 2 extra fWAR - now you're approaching a possible .500 team, but that's also assuming no one (McCann, Abreu, Anderson) regresses from their 2019 seasons, which is also possible. 

That still leaves you a long way to go in free agency. 

To look at the math another way, we are at 23.3 fWAR in 2019. Minnesota was at 54.9. With some margin for error, you need to find 30 fWAR. You've added 2.4 from the list you just said. I will give you another 10 fWAR from guys on this roster - extremely optimistic but not impossible. You upgrade the DH spot, 5th starter, and RF to 2 win players - from the numbers above that's 11 additional fWAR counting the -5 fWAR noted above and 6 added by those players directly. That brings the White Sox to a healthy 46.7 fWAR. That is a solid, strong team, but if fWAR translated directly to records (which admittedly it doesn't) - you are 8 games behind the 2019 Twins. Furthermore, the AL Central has, for 50+ fWAR teams going back to the World series winning Royals, so you do need to load up. Cleveland will be back next year, and could be even stronger - they were demolished by injuries this year and their pitching staff has already found new blood.

There is more that can be found elsewhere. Moncada and Giolito could turn into Bregman and Cole. Cease could come out and do a Giolito. You can improve the bullpen. There are ways to get this team to 50 fWAR based on internal development. But this act that this team is somehow a guaranteed world series contender and the setup you just did to find 10 wins - doesn't work the way you want it to.

[caulfield12]

Considering the danger of not getting Grandal if they cut loose McCann and instead getting stuck with Collins catching 120 games...a disaster of unmitigated proportions or a boon to fans of Nick Hostetler’s talent evaluation process.

[chetkincaid]

I don't understand the fascination with Brett Gardner here. He looks like he's 40 and seems like he'll fall apart the minute he leaves the Yankees.