A Realistic Offseason

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

Well to some extent they are, because there's only so much money to go around. Every dollar you want to spend on the DH position is a dollar fewer that this org will spend on pitching.

I cannot figure out any reasonable way to budget the best pitcher this year (Cole) and Martinez at DH, while also filling RF, if there are some payroll limits attached and I also want bullpen help. Something's gotta give.

I know we won't do Cole, but I can make Cole work on a $140 million payroll with Moustakas, Calhoun/Reddick, and good bullpen help. I can't do that if I replace Moustakas with Martinez unless I can push $155 million this year or I go for a cheaper pitching option. 

And if I have to stick to a $120 million payroll limit, and I go for Martinez, then my pitching addition is Quintana and my RF is Avi garcia, or something like that.

Cole isn’t happening, so no need to build a hypothetical around him.  But plenty of room to fill all our needs and maintain a league average payroll.  I’ve posted this before, but this would be my offseason plan:

 

[Balta1701]

The Mets should never do anything close to that deal, that's just awful for Nimmo. And I'm not sure how you get to that payroll. If we start with $70 million including Abreu (the number I've been starting with assuming no Yolmer), $20 for Grandal is $90 million, $5 for McCann is $95, $37.5 for the 2 starters brings me to $132.5, Smith in the Bullpen brings me to $145. I note Rodon's money is missing, I don't have time to figure out what else is absent now.

[Two-Gun Pete]

8 hours ago, mqr said:

I think the decline has more to do with how outrageously good he was in 18 and the fact that that just likely wouldn't continue than actual physical decline. 

I think that's a fair thought.

However, JDM's wrc+ in 2017 was similar to 2018. (Recall that he didn't have a spring training in 17.)

So, I don't think it was simply an artificially good 2018, I think it's more about a natural aging curve.

 

I feel like we've seen this movie before with Dunn and other aging DH types being brought in via FA.

2 hours ago, Thad Bosley said:

Well, what’s not clear to me at this point is what the “three year plan” is gonna be IF we resign Abreu, sign JDM, AND bring up Vaughn?  

I, for one, am very excited about Vaughn’s potential, so I’m not ready just yet to send him off packing in a trade just trying to make room for two DH types.   

So who plays where and when come 2021 if we have all three on the roster?

And this is the other angle. Who does he block as he ages?

Edited October 28, 2019 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

The Mets should never do anything close to that deal, that's just awful for Nimmo. And I'm not sure how you get to that payroll. If we start with $70 million including Abreu (the number I've been starting with assuming no Yolmer), $20 for Grandal is $90 million, $5 for McCann is $95, $37.5 for the 2 starters brings me to $132.5, Smith in the Bullpen brings me to $145. I note Rodon's money is missing, I don't have time to figure out what else is absent now.

Lol...no idea how I get to that payroll?  The table is a literal walk based on actual commitments, MLBtraderumor’s arbitration projections, and my own forecasted salaries for free agents.  I did not include Rodon’s salary (which I mentioned in my original post on this) which would bring the payroll up ~$135M which is league average.

As for the Nimmo package, I think you are undervaluing Stiever & Walker (not that they’re that studs) and overvaluing BVW’s ability as a GM.  Plus the health factor is a real risk and something we’d be taking on, which would factored into any potential price.  I’m definitely not guaranteeing they’d take that offer, but we’re starting to see prospects in the 100 to 200 range command more value than in years past.  I think Stiever is a guy with real helium right now and Walker’s upside is still fairly high if he can stick in CF, which hasn’t been ruled out yet.

[pcq]

Maybe too soon to be anything about Vaughn yet many have high expectations. The draft year is always a strange ride. Give him another season before you keep a spot open for him. 

[caulfield12]

2 hours ago, ChiSox59 said:

The part you're kind of ignoring in your calculus is how the Mets are going to get all these guys to play.  Conforto and McNeil both take corner spots.  McNeil may occasionally spell Cano at 2B, in which case I assume Smith is taking reps in the OF.  Then you have Cespedes.  Unless they plan to put McNeil at 3B regularly, and put Lowrie (who they just gave a 2/$20M deal to last winter) on the bench - but McNeil is not an everyday IF.  Something has to give.  Maybe that something is trading McNeil or Conforto instead of Nimmo, but really they have to do something.  

With respect to the Sox system - ya the 2019 season was pretty shitty for Sox prospects not named Robert/Madrigal/Stiever.  I do think we still have some names that have some real trade value outside of the top 4 - specifically Dunning, Walker, Stiever - and to a lesser extent Rutherford and Adolfo. I think there are pieces there to make a move, but I understand your reluctance.   I also think there is some merit to giving the Rutherford/Adolo/Basabe trio one more year to try to claim RF for the future without blocking them with a long term RF via trade isn't the worst idea.  Which is where 1 year stop gaps via trade or FA, or even a guy like Mazara start to make more sense.  I still have decently high hopes for Adolfo - the other two not so much. If someone like Nimmo, or Gregory Polonco, or David Dahl cost too much - I prefer they just go the stop gap route. 

Isn’t Cespedes likely completely finished and an insurance write off?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, bmags said:

Moustakas, for instance, was available last year, and the year prior. And he’s available this year, and is cheap despite being a rare, valuable commodity. 

You literally just did what I said you couldn't do. And the year prior he had a QO offer attached. Also until last year no one had imagined him being able to play 2nd base competently.

Edited October 29, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[caulfield12]

51 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You literally just did what I said you couldn't do. And the year prior he had a QO offer attached. Also until last year no one had imagined him being able to play 2nd base competently.

It's probably more that he was looking for "best fit" on a one-year basis (and Milwaukee has been/is going to be nearing their payroll limits) already was comfortable with the Brewers and enjoying playing on a competitive team in a market quite similar to Kansas City.

He's definitely proven to be a "winning," versatile player who no longer looks like the pure platoon hitter he was his first 2-3 seasons in KC (destroyed by LH pitching.)

 

[bmags]

10 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You literally just did what I said you couldn't do. And the year prior he had a QO offer attached. Also until last year no one had imagined him being able to play 2nd base competently.

That’s ridiculous. The guy has been available for three straight offseason, and traded once, and you think he’ll be cheap this year, yet we need to act like this is rare?

the team that signed him, did so for 2b, yet nobody thought that he could? 
 

 

[Thad Bosley]

15 hours ago, pcq said:

Maybe too soon to be anything about Vaughn yet many have high expectations. The draft year is always a strange ride. Give him another season before you keep a spot open for him. 

I most certainly do have high expectations, and hopes, associated with Vaughn.  

That's because I, like yourself and every other White Sox fan, had to sit through a miserable 100 loss season in order to gain access to his services.  Therefore, I want him to be a very significant, contributing player to these upcoming years of competitiveness the Sox are getting close to entering into.  

Same goes for Madrigal before him.  Both are key "rebuild babies", and I look forward to enjoying watching them excel in White Sox uniforms.   

[Eminor3rd]

The moustakas obsession always kills me. Why do we want a 110wRC+ DH so badly? If we had a black hole in the infield, I get it. That’s what signing 30+ year old 2 WAR players is for. But White Sox need ABs for high upside guys in the infield.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1st off what you said was " a Moustaskas" is available every year which I took to mean a player like Moose is available every year. Now what is Moose ? He's a 30 HR guy who bats left handed and plays 2nd, base, 1st base and 3rd base. He was not that until this year  , 2019 was the  1st year he played 2nd base in his career therefore you cannot use Moustakas as an example of "a Moustakas" type when he wasn't in the past what he is now.

It is you who say a player like him is available every year yet you can't name anyone but him as being like him even though he wasn't even like he was before this year. LOL UGH !!  this is giving me a headache !

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

7 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The moustakas obsession always kills me. Why do we want a 110wRC+ DH so badly? If we had a black hole in the infield, I get it. That’s what signing 30+ year old 2 WAR players is for. But White Sox need ABs for high upside guys in the infield.

3 WAR at least according to bWAR. Uf you use WAR and mean fWAR please say so.

 

8 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The moustakas obsession always kills me. Why do we want a 110wRC+ DH so badly? If we had a black hole in the infield, I get it. That’s what signing 30+ year old 2 WAR players is for. But White Sox need ABs for high upside guys in the infield.

HELLO  35 HR's covers 3 infield positions well therefore not just a DH , actually far from a DH. Quite literally one of the best guys you can have to be a great substitute for an injured Moncada or ABreu or non productive Madrigal . Yea I get it you want to make your point by diminshing his WAR and only calling him a DH . When he would be a huge depth piece while also being a starter.

Plus I don't envision him signed in a vacuum. It's imperative to also get Grandal.

[Eminor3rd]

31 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

3 WAR at least according to bWAR. Uf you use WAR and mean fWAR please say so.

 

HELLO  35 HR's covers 3 infield positions well therefore not just a DH , actually far from a DH. Quite literally one of the best guys you can have to be a great substitute for an injured Moncada or ABreu or non productive Madrigal . Yea I get it you want to make your point by diminshing his WAR and only calling him a DH . When he would be a huge depth piece while also being a starter.

Plus I don't envision him signed in a vacuum. It's imperative to also get Grandal.

1. Context is important. Look past the homers. That’s why we use WAR. His defense is mediocre and his OBP is Leury Garcia bad. His ability to play multiple positions doesn’t help if you already have guys in those positions who are better. Dude isn’t gonna be happy as a multi-position backup to a bunch of rookies. If he would play DH for the White Sox, then he’s a DH for the White Sox.
 

The thing he does best (hit homers) has literally never been easier to come by. This is reflected in his linear weights stats.

2. There’s literally no reason to use bWAR over fWAR for position players, unless you’re prepared to argue that DRS is a superior system to UZR. Fangraphs uses wRC+, which is objectively better than OPS+, even if they don’t differ much. In practice, people use bWAR when they want to make a player look better and it turns out that DRS favored the guy that year.

3. Even if he was worth 3 WAR this year, he’ll project around 2 WAR based on his career numbers and aging curve, and even less if he spends half his time at DH, and what he does going forward is the only thing matters to the White Sox. 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Eminor3rd

[TheFutureIsNear]

24 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

The moustakas obsession always kills me. Why do we want a 110wRC+ DH so badly? If we had a black hole in the infield, I get it. That’s what signing 30+ year old 2 WAR players is for. But White Sox need ABs for high upside guys in the infield.

Aside from JDM, what’s your alternative? Is it only great top 5/10 players at their position you’re interested in? 
Given the Sox roster it’s pretty crazy to me that you would want nothing to do with Moose on a reasonable 2 year deal. Position flex, lefty, power...checks a lot of boxes if you ask me 

[Eminor3rd]

7 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Aside from JDM, what’s your alternative? Is it only great top 5/10 players at their position you’re interested in? 
Given the Sox roster it’s pretty crazy to me that you would want nothing to do with Moose on a reasonable 2 year deal. Position flex, lefty, power...checks a lot of boxes if you ask me 

My alternative is give ABs to core players that need them. Eloy, Madrigal, Collins,  Robert, and Vaughn will need them at DH/2B over the next two seasons, particularly if Abreu is resigned, which seems likely.

Save money for impact acquisitions. Like it or not, this teams payroll cap is mid-market. Buy 2 WAR full-ins when they finish your roster, not as building blocks. 

[scs787]

17 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

My alternative is give ABs to core players that need them. Eloy, Madrigal, Collins,  Robert, and Vaughn will need them at DH/2B over the next two seasons, particularly if Abreu is resigned, which seems likely.

Save money for impact acquisitions. Like it or not, this teams payroll cap is mid-market. Buy 2 WAR full-ins when they finish your roster, not as building blocks. 

Shouldn't they be at the point where they are trying to finish their roster? 

 

I want JDM or Grandal, but Moose is my #3 pick and he's absolutely a massive upgrade.

[Eminor3rd]

2 minutes ago, scs787 said:

Shouldn't they be at the point where they are trying to finish their roster? 

 

I want JDM or Grandal, but Moose is my #3 pick and he's absolutely a massive upgrade.

Unfortunately, no. They’re a sub-500 team. They need to add high-end multi-year pitching, a mid-to-high-end multi-year OF bat and they need Robert/Madrigal/Vaughn to arrive and adjust. 

I’m not saying that they shouldn’t be trying to compete 2020, but what is being done to the 25-man roster should not be characterized as “polishing” or “finishing.” It’s very much still “building.”

[Bob Sacamano]

6 minutes ago, scs787 said:

Shouldn't they be at the point where they are trying to finish their roster? 

 

I want JDM or Grandal, but Moose is my #3 pick and he's absolutely a massive upgrade.

Especially if he is a guy who can give a half day off to Moncada every once in a while (Moose at 3 and Moncada at DH).

[mqr]

13 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

I’m not saying that they shouldn’t be trying to compete 2020,

There's no functional difference between trying to compete and 'finishing' a roster. Rosters are never finished, if your trying to win baseball games add the best players you can where you need them most. 

Clocks been ticking for a while now

Edited October 29, 2019 by mqr

[TheFutureIsNear]

10 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Unfortunately, no. They’re a sub-500 team. They need to add high-end multi-year pitching, a mid-to-high-end multi-year OF bat and they need Robert/Madrigal/Vaughn to arrive and adjust. 

I’m not saying that they shouldn’t be trying to compete 2020, but what is being done to the 25-man roster should not be characterized as “polishing” or “finishing.” It’s very much still “building.”

Not sure why you are already carving out AB’s for Vaughn though. You can only kick the can down the road for so long. We can worry about the potential problem of having too many hitters in 2020. 
 

And sure, getting TOR SP’s is obviously important. But what happens if/when that fails on free agency. The plan is do nothing and hope for the best with what we have in the lineup? 

[Eminor3rd]

2 minutes ago, mqr said:

There's no functional difference between trying to compete and 'finishing' a roster. Rosters are never finished, if your trying to win baseball games add the best players you can where you need them most. 

I disagree with that notion. The difference I’m trying to point out is one where they are adding foundational, core pieces versus supplementary, fill-in pieces. The former are players that can be projected to sustain or improve their performance rover several seasons, whereas in the latter case, you’re finding players that are likely in decline, and are thus considered immediate, next season investments, even if you are stuck with them for a few after.

the important part of the distinction lies in the cost. If you spend money on depreciating, supplementary assets before the core is good enough to make use of them, you find yourself tapped out and several key pieces short. This is, essentially, exactly what the White Sox have done repeatedly over the last few decades. 

My issue isn’t that Moustakas is a bad player or that he wouldn’t make the 2020 White Sox better, it is that he is an inefficient fit both in terms of roster, cost, and timing, and I’ve seen those types of inefficiencies prevent the White Sox from winning too many times already. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

My alternative is give ABs to core players that need them. Eloy, Madrigal, Collins,  Robert, and Vaughn will need them at DH/2B over the next two seasons, particularly if Abreu is resigned, which seems likely.

Save money for impact acquisitions. Like it or not, this teams payroll cap is mid-market. Buy 2 WAR full-ins when they finish your roster, not as building blocks. 

So by this do I gather that you also don't want JDM along with not wanting Moose? Mentioning Vaughn is hardly worth discussing at this time. He must face the AA gauntlet in Birmingham 1st . There seem to be a lot of people who think if you sign some pitching and JDM the Sox could get in the playoffs next year, While Ithink it's a long shot because I just don't think the young pitching will do well enough; I also think depth was a huge problem and address that need with MM.Hahn has spoke often about the need for positional versatility and LH power so I am just using what he has said as a guide. I also use bWAR because Baseball Ref pops up on my screen when I search a guy by just putting his name into a search engine. If you think fWAR is better because UZR is better than DRS that's your choice but until there's one reliable way to grade players defensively you can argue this all day . I will always lose arguing sabremetrics with you because I see a very useful player and you see his pie chart. Isn't it also fWAR using UZR that has in the past way over rated guys because of defense like Heyward ?

My "obsession" with Moose as you call it is realistically trying to plug as many holes and account for injuries which always happens. There's absolutely no reason to call him a DH when the Sox have been pushing Abreu toward DH the last couple years. Moustakas wouldn't b a part time player . It's very easy to see the Sox getting good DH production without JDM between Abreu , Grandal Moose Moncada etc .

JDM was signed by Boston with a lot of things to protect them in case he had a re -occurrence of a specific foot injury. Should the Sox sign him without those restrictions should he become available ? If the Sox get him and manage to sign a top pitcher you're cool with losing 2 draft picks and being 1 JDM injury away from losing that big of a bat without any way to replace him ? AT least my way the Sox can cover an injury to various guys without losing too much.

[Eminor3rd]

18 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

So by this do I gather that you also don't want JDM along with not wanting Moose? Mentioning Vaughn is hardly worth discussing at this time. He must face the AA gauntlet in Birmingham 1st . There seem to be a lot of people who think if you sign some pitching and JDM the Sox could get in the playoffs next year, While Ithink it's a long shot because I just don't think the young pitching will do well enough; I also think depth was a huge problem and address that need with MM.Hahn has spoke often about the need for positional versatility and LH power so I am just using what he has said as a guide. I also use bWAR because Baseball Ref pops up on my screen when I search a guy by just putting his name into a search engine. If you think fWAR is better because UZR is better than DRS that's your choice but until there's one reliable way to grade players defensively you can argue this all day . I will always lose arguing sabremetrics with you because I see a very useful player and you see his pie chart. Isn't it also fWAR using UZR that has in the past way over rated guys because of defense like Heyward ?

My "obsession" with Moose as you call it is realistically trying to plug as many holes and account for injuries which always happens. There's absolutely no reason to call him a DH when the Sox have been pushing Abreu toward DH the last couple years. Moustakas wouldn't b a part time player . It's very easy to see the Sox getting good DH production without JDM between Abreu , Grandal Moose Moncada etc .

JDM was signed by Boston with a lot of things to protect them in case he had a re -occurrence of a specific foot injury. Should the Sox sign him without those restrictions should he become available ? If the Sox get him and manage to sign a top pitcher you're cool with losing 2 draft picks and being 1 JDM injury away from losing that big of a bat without any way to replace him ? AT least my way the Sox can cover an injury to various guys without losing too much.

1. I’m not arguing UZR over DRS, I’m arguing wRC+ over OPS+. I don’t think anyone here, myself included, can make a convincing argument for either UZR or DRS. But wRC+ over ops+ is clear as day.

2. Please stop with this false “sabermetrics vs common sense” narrative. If you keep using that lense, you will miss my point every time. I’m not seeing pie charts, lol. I see a useful player, too. I’m trying to point out the importance of context: I don’t see a full time spot for the guy without costing a higher upside player ABs. I’m refusing to ignore all aspects of his playing just because he hits 30 homers. I Am rightfully wary of committing significant resources to a short term player who will add a win or two to the ledger when we all know that doing so will likely prevent the White Sox from adding a more significant piece. It’s not sabermetrics, it’s just looking at the bigger picture.

3. I’m not counting on ABs for Vaughn next year, necessarily. But absolutely over the next two seasons. Which I said.

4. I don’t know how I feel about JDM. He would definitely make a bigger impact, but he looks to be in decline, and if he bails on 3/67, presumably it’s to end up with more. That’s a big commitment on a declining asset in the easiest position to fill, and for which we already have internal candidates. 

[Eminor3rd]

33 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Not sure why you are already carving out AB’s for Vaughn though. You can only kick the can down the road for so long. We can worry about the potential problem of having too many hitters in 2020. 
 

And sure, getting TOR SP’s is obviously important. But what happens if/when that fails on free agency. The plan is do nothing and hope for the best with what we have in the lineup? 

Carving out ABs for Vaughn in 2021. Regardless of his success until then, he’s gonna need them if we are gonna be good. 

they need to not miss on the TOR pitching. I know that sounds dumb, but it’s in their hands. And they’ll need all their pennies.