A Realistic Offseason

[ChiSoxFanMike]

We’ve reached peak offseason on SoxTalk. Pages and pages of mindless drivel for no real reason

[hi8is]

27 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is one of the dumbest posts I have ever seen in my life.

Poop.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think their internal budget is around ~130M and I don't expect them to exceed that over the next 5 seasons. It's kind of why I don't think they're going to add much, because in a year or two they're going to reach that easily just with Moncada/Gio arbitration. They're going to try to piece things together like they did in 2015-16 with short term deals. (1-2 years) 

I think their internal budget is 350 million.

See, I can make random things up, state them as facts and be outlandishly optimistic too!

[Jack Parkman]

I found a picture of @Chicago White Sox and @Look at Ray Ray Run

 

But seriously people, let's just let the offseason play out, and we can b**** or be excited in February when Pitchers and Catchers are reporting. 

I'm being a bit of a Pessimistic Peter because I don't want to be disappointed yet again. Really, though, just let it play out. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I found a picture of @Chicago White Sox and @Look at Ray Ray Run

Based on what? 

As I said, please name one example of the White Sox reportedly offering more money - or even the same amount - to a player and said player chose to play somewhere else. You want to continue to cite some absurd "no players want to play for the Sox" narrative, then give me an example Jack. Facts and outcomes matter.

I gave you an example of the opposite.

[Orlando]

21 minutes ago, mqr said:

Roughly 3-4 wins better at each position you just listed.

Those are places the Sox could greatly improve just by filling each of those positions where everyone's only qualification is 'Belongs in the MLB'. Aim Higher, but don't do nothing. 

100 percent agree with this. The White Sox biggest issue was playing a bunch of non mlb players. As a matter of fact DH and RF were HISTORICALLY bad and SP was atrocious. Superstars would be nice but even just average players would be a huge upgrade. I want the top tier of free agents but the idea that the Sox should stand pat if they don't get the cream of the crop is crazy to me.

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Based on what? 

As I said, please name one example of the White Sox reportedly offering more money - or even the same amount - to a player and said player chose to play somewhere else. You want to continue to cite some absurd "no players want to play for the Sox" narrative, then give me an example Jack. Facts and outcomes matter.

I gave you an example of the opposite.

Let me re-phrase that: I think that once players have been here, they really like it with the Sox. However, I have no idea why their reputation isn't that great among free agents, because the only major FA from another team that the Sox have signed since I was in 8th grade is Adam Dunn, and he was a tier B free agent. I think they're more likely to get their good players and stars to re-sign than they are to grab good players from other teams. It wouldn't shock me at all if Moncada and Giolito signed an extension that took them to their age 30 season this winter. They'd still reach FA at a decent age, and they'd make money in the meantime. 

If it were up to me, Grandal, Wheeler and Bumgarner would be at the top of my list. I'd talk to Boras about Cole/Strasburg. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Let me re-phrase that: I think that once players have been here, they really like it with the Sox. However, I have no idea why their reputation isn't that great among free agents, because the only major FA that the Sox have signed since I was in 8th grade is Adam Dunn, and he was a tier B free agent. I think they're more likely to get their good players and stars to re-sign than they are to grab good players from other teams. It wouldn't shock me at all if Moncada and Giolito signed an extension that took them to their age 30 season this winter. 

Jack, you said no one wants to play here and the Sox have to overpay because if they offer the same they dont get the player. 

We have said they simply have to offer the most money as does every other team who wants a free agent.

I asked you to name a single example to support your claim. You called me a optimistic unicorn for calling bullshit on your claim. Its laughable that you cant justify it with facts and evidence but had the audacity to call me out for being blind and bias.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[TheFutureIsNear]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Players set the market. Players that take less to play somewhere do exist but it's a very small percentage. The union frowns upon this. The sport isnt capped. The only way for salaries to grow is for the union participants to maximize their returns.

I get it, but you’re still way over simplifying the situation. The majority of players with multiple similar offers aren’t just going to blankly tell their agent “don’t care what city, just the highest $ amount”...they have families, preferences, etc...But again, I’m talking about a few mil difference over a large multi year deal. If the Sox are offering someone $100M and the next closest offer is $85M of course it will be a no brainer decision. But if it’s $100M vs $95M i don’t seem how an abundance of factors wouldn’t come into play.
 

I also don’t think every player would be anti-Sox/Chicago for what it’s worth... 

[mqr]

5 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I get it, but you’re still way over simplifying the situation. The majority of players with multiple similar offers aren’t just going to blankly tell their agent “don’t care what city, just the highest $ amount”...they have families, preferences, etc...But again, I’m talking about a few mil difference over a large multi year deal. If the Sox are offering someone $100M and the next closest offer is $85M of course it will be a no brainer decision. But if it’s $100M vs $95M i don’t seem how an abundance of factors wouldn’t come into play.
 

I also don’t think every player would be anti-Sox/Chicago for what it’s worth... 

What we’ve seen though is players sit and wait until some team set their offer apart. 

There are exceptions like Piscotty feeling the need to be in Oakland, but not many

Edited November 5, 2019 by mqr

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I get it, but you’re still way over simplifying the situation. The majority of players with multiple similar offers aren’t just going to blankly tell their agent “don’t care what city, just the highest $ amount”...they have families, preferences, etc...But again, I’m talking about a few mil difference over a large multi year deal. If the Sox are offering someone $100M and the next closest offer is $85M of course it will be a no brainer decision. But if it’s $100M vs $95M i don’t seem how an abundance of factors wouldn’t come into play.
 

I also don’t think every player would be anti-Sox/Chicago for what it’s worth... 

95% of free agents take the biggest offer. I don't know what to tell you. My claim is based on actual outcomes. Your claim is based on anecdotal BS and your "opinion."

5 million dollars is a lot of money, just so you know and most players would take the extra money assuming a non-hometown angle. The only time you really see players take less is when resigning with their own team.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Jack, you said no one wants to play here and the Sox have to overpay because if they offer the same they dont get the player. 

We have said they simply have to offer the most money as does every other team who wants a free agent.

I asked you to name a single example to support your claim. You called me a optimistic uniform for calling bullshit on your claim. Its laughable that you can justify it with facts and evidence but had the audacity to call me out for being blind and bias.

I don't think it always comes down to just money. I think a lot of times, there's similar offers and it comes down to where the player is most comfortable. Especially in the age of analytics, I think the industry almost has a consensus on the value of players. There is going to be a point where money is no longer as much of a factor because all of the offers are similar. At that point, it's going to become a lot like the NBA where players are going to choose based on weather, market size, and other factors. 

I don't necessarily think that the Sox will or won't land players because they don't want to take their money or anything, I think the big issue is that half of baseball is going to be fairly active this winter. I expect Arte Moreno to spend like a drunken sailor. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

I don't think it always comes down to just money. I think a lot of times, there's similar offers and it comes down to where the player is most comfortable. Especially in the age of analytics, I think the industry almost has a consensus on the value of players. There is going to be a point where money is no longer as much of a factor because all of the offers are similar. At that point, it's going to become a lot like the NBA where players are going to choose based on weather, market size, and other factors. 

Name. One. Example. 

Jesus christ.

Baseball doesnt have a cap. It will never be like basketball because teams will offer opt outs, extra years, higher guarantees. If they put a max contract cap in baseball, then yes jack other things will matter. Until then, they simply wont.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[ChiSox59]

18 minutes ago, BigHurt3515 said:

Based on what? Seems like you have blind optimism. What makes this off-season a fail to you? As long as we spend 40M you are happy?

Obviously not.  I just think the White Sox have a plan and know what they're doing . They get basically zero credit here.  

I've said what I think they should do like 1,000 times in the past few months.

Priority #1: Sign Grandal

Priority #1A: Sign one of the best best 5 SP FA.  Cole and Strasburg are pipedreams.  After them, its one of Wheeler, Bumgarner or Ryu. Wheeler would be my first choice after the clear aces that are pipedreams. 

Priority #2: Figure out RF.  I'd prefer to trade for a RF as I think the free agent options are all poor fits for this roster. I've mentioned Nimmo, Pederson, Dahl, Tapia, Mazara, Startling Marte, Gregory Polonco, Brian Anderson and David Peralta as guys who making varying degree of sense.  

Priority #3: Retain Abreu via a 2 year deal at $15M AAV MAX, or on the QO.  I think its safe to assume this will be checked off the list in less than 10 days.

Priority #4: Sign a backend SP to eat some innings while Kopech builds up his endurance in AAA and Rodon rehabs.  Someone who can transition to bullpen later in season would be ideal.  I think who makes the most sense is somewhat contingent upon who is signed as Priority #1A.  Someone like Wood, Tehran, Rich Hill, Smyly, Gibson, etc make some sense here.

Priority #5: If you fail to do Priority #1, sign a DH bat for a season.  We really need lefties, but Encarncion has legitimately no suitors, and may make some sense on a cheap 1 year deal if Grandal signs elsewhere.  

Priority #6: Get a decent veteran reliever.  Nothing too sexy is necessary.  Stammen, Hudson, Martin, Harris (Astros) are a few names.  

 

I would say if they cannot accomplish about half of that (doesn't necessarily need to be the exact player mentioned, but fill the holes as noted), the offseason would be failure.  I don't want to spend money just to spend money.  Ideally we fill a rotation spot and C/DH/1B with longer term options in Wheeler and Grandal.  I am pretty confident the Sox to-do list looks very similar to this.  They have plenty of payroll flexibility to work with.  I think it will be a productive offseason.

Does that summarize it enough, or would you like more detail?     

[SonofaRoache]

14 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Based on what? 

As I said, please name one example of the White Sox reportedly offering more money - or even the same amount - to a player and said player chose to play somewhere else. You want to continue to cite some absurd "no players want to play for the Sox" narrative, then give me an example Jack. Facts and outcomes matter.

I gave you an example of the opposite.

No one can cite that example because we don't have contract offers for everyone. Just like you can't prove the Sox haven't offered players more money and got turned down. Rick Hahn mentioned this year how some teams had better situations to offer than we did, and how players pick teams for several reasons. 

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Name. One. Example. 

Jesus christ.

I can't prove it because most of the time, with the exception of major free agents like A-Rod, Manny Ramirez, Harper and Machado, the losing offers are never known. There's no way to prove or disprove your point. 

The only offer that is ever public knowledge is the one the player signs. The others remain private. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[TheFutureIsNear]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

95% of free agents take the biggest offer. I don't know what to tell you. My claim is based on actual outcomes. Your claim is based on anecdotal BS and your "opinion."

5 million dollars is a lot of money, just so you know.

Yes my opinion...just like it’s your opinion. Only difference is I’m not a giant douche that talks on the internet like I have inside information like you are trying to do.

[ChiSox59]

29 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I think their internal budget is around ~130M and I don't expect them to exceed that over the next 5 seasons. It's kind of why I don't think they're going to add much, because in a year or two they're going to reach that easily just with Moncada/Gio arbitration. They're going to try to piece things together like they did in 2015-16 with short term deals. (1-2 years) 

LOL.  They legitimately rebuild to avoid doing this very thing.

You're just ignoring what is clearly in front of your eyes because it fits your narrative, and you love being negative. 

[ChiSox59]

23 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I found a picture of @Chicago White Sox and @Look at Ray Ray Run

 

But seriously people, let's just let the offseason play out, and we can b**** or be excited in February when Pitchers and Catchers are reporting. 

I'm being a bit of a Pessimistic Peter because I don't want to be disappointed yet again. Really, though, just let it play out. 

Feel free to take a hiatus until then.  The quality of the board would improve drastically. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

LOL.  They legitimately rebuild to avoid doing this very thing.

You're just ignoring what is clearly in front of your eyes because it fits your narrative, and you love being negative. 

It isn't that. I think they might land one guy, whether that be a pitcher or a hitter. I don't see any one team getting more than one tier A or B free agent this winter. There are too many teams in the marketplace. The one exception might be the Angels, because Moreno can't let Trout waste his entire career. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

No one can cite that example because we don't have contract offers for everyone. Just like you can't prove the Sox haven't offered players more money and got turned down. Rick Hahn mentioned this year how some teams had better situations to offer than we did, and how players pick teams for several reasons. 

It tends to leak - as was the case with Robert - when this happens. 

I just cited an example that supports my claim - luis robert. Why cant you cite a single claim that supports yours? You dont think a team would leak that they made the highest offer for a guy?

[Dick Allen]

The last 2 times the White Sox were in the top 5 in payroll they last 90 games in 2007, and 99 games in 2013. The same dopes are calling the shots.

[Jack Parkman]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It tends to leak - as was the case with Robert - when this happens. 

I just cited an example that supports my claim - luis robert. Why cant you cite a single claim that supports yours? You dont think a team would leak that they made the highest offer for a guy?

Only for the highest profile players. 

What happened with Machado seems to happen to the Sox a lot. It happened with A-Rod, Torii Hunter, and then Machado,  just off the top of my head. There are many more instances of that happening to them than them turning down more money to play elsewhere. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by Jack Parkman

[SonofaRoache]

2 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It tends to leak - as was the case with Robert - when this happens. 

I just cited an example that supports my claim - luis robert. Why cant you cite a single claim that supports yours? You dont think a team would leak that they made the highest offer for a guy?

Robert wasn't an MLB player at the time. I would like to see evidence that your claim of 95 percent is accurate, if you don't mind. I would also like a large sample size and not 3 cases. I agree with your premise, but for different reasons. 

Edited November 5, 2019 by SonofaRoache

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Yes my opinion...just like it’s your opinion. Only difference is I’m not a giant douche that talks on the internet like I have inside information like you are trying to do.

What inside information have I ever pretended to have?

Do you see me calling you a douche? What you'll notice is I reply to the post not the poster. You might want to give that a try.

When I start calling people names and referring go them as idiots or douche bags, I'll go ahead and surrender as substance is clearly not something I can argue.