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A Realistic Offseason


BamaDoc

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1 minute ago, hi8is said:

I’m salivating already about Betts... which means it won’t happen, of course.

I do not want Betts on a one year deal though. He will cost $28 million and we still will not be realistic contenders in 2020 even with Betts and Wheeler hypothetically. 

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7 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I do not want Betts on a one year deal though. He will cost $28 million and we still will not be realistic contenders in 2020 even with Betts and Wheeler hypothetically. 

I was speaking in context of him next year as a free agent.

What more of a perfect “final piece” could there be?

Edited by hi8is
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44 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Hahn alluded that Brantley wanted to go play for an immediate contender, exactly. We do not need to totally blow our wad this offseason and should tactically make sure we have 20-30 million to play with next offseason at least. 

If we’re serious about pursuing Betts or Springer next offseason, then by all means go the stop-gap route.  But if not,  we should be exploring other long-term alternatives.  I’m not convinced any of our minor league guys are the answer and RF is the last spot we can add an impact player to the lineup.

 

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why would we not be realistic contenders with Betts & Wheeler?

Pitching staff and bullpen is still pretty questionable. Wheeler (figure $21 million) and Betts ($28 million) would pretty much prevent us from being able to add much in the way of bullpen/bench/another starter help. 
 

we would have to give up significant assets as well, and the roster is not championship ready considering Robert and Madrigal have yet to play a MLB game yet. 2020 should be a big step, but true contention is likely 2021. 

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10 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Pitching staff and bullpen is still pretty questionable. Wheeler (figure $21 million) and Betts ($28 million) would pretty much prevent us from being able to add much in the way of bullpen/bench/another starter help. 
 

we would have to give up significant assets as well, and the roster is not championship ready considering Robert and Madrigal have yet to play a MLB game yet. 2020 should be a big step, but true contention is likely 2021. 

Betts, Wheeler, & Grandal combined for 16.5 fWAR last year.  If they come even remotely close to those numbers next year, it would be absolute insanity for a team coming off 72 wins and with a talented young core in place (including the addition of three top 25 prospects) to not compete in the shittiest division in all of baseball.  I’m sorry, but teams do NOT need to be perfect to be legit playoff contenders.

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27 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Some pitching.

2021 has a lot if we sign Wheeler

Wheeler

Giolito

Kopech

Rodon

Cease

Lopez

Dunning

 

i think there are enough options there to omit a pursuit of more and go all in on Betts instead.

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3 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Sprotrac is a pretty great resource IMO and they show our committed salary for 10 guys to be ~$71M.  If you allocate all of Abreu’s signing bonus to 2020 we’d be sitting at $74M plus we owe $1M for Alonso’s theoretic buy-our.  All in, that puts us right at $75M.  Assuming we add two starters, one reliever, a RF, and a bench piece, that means we need to include 10 pre-arb guys as well.  At $650k per, that puts us at right about $82M with five roster spots to fill.

My guess is we have a payroll ceiling ~$135M next year.  Adding Wheeler at $20M per would put at $102M, leaving a good $30M to work with.  Give me either Wood or Gonzalez for the rotation (1/$8M or 1/$6M respectively), a guy like McHugh for the bullpen (1/$5M), & Gennett for the bench (1/$5M) and we still have $15M to $17M left for RF.  That would likely be enough for any free agent OF (including Castellanos) and way more than what would be required for any realistic trade target (i.e. not Mookie).

To me, it’s absolutely critical we land Wheeler, as otherwise we’ll struggle to take advantage our remaining financial flexibility effectively.

Abreu signing bonus was put into 2019

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1 hour ago, hi8is said:

2021 has a lot if we sign Wheeler

Wheeler

Giolito

Kopech

Rodon

Cease

Lopez

Dunning

 

i think there are enough options there to omit a pursuit of more and go all in on Betts instead.

Of that group, there are 2 for sure pitchers.    3 are coming off of injury and only 1 of those has any substantial ML experience (one has none at all).  Then there is Cease who looked good in a short stint, but is no cinch; and inconsistent Lopez. And then zero in the minors behind them (except for a couple in the low minors).

Regardless, if they can't sign Machado when there was no upper market competition, Betts is not realistic.

On a side note, I'd like to see them trade some of the Sheets' for some similarly situated pitching (or middle infield where, as usual, they have nothing in the minors aside from Madrigal who will be needed this year).

Edited by GreenSox
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2 hours ago, steveno89 said:

and we still will not be realistic contenders in 2020 even with Betts and Wheeler hypothetically. 

That's why I wish we had a top flight manager. When the heck are we going to be contenders if not this season? We just signed an elite catcher to go with stars Moncada, Tim Anderson, Abreu, Eloy, Madrigal, Robert. What are the Sox waiting for?? Get some pitching and contend NOW.

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31 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

Of that group, there are 2 for sure pitchers.    3 are coming off of injury and only 1 of those has any substantial ML experience (one has none at all).  Then there is Cease who looked good in a short stint, but is no cinch; and inconsistent Lopez. And then zero in the minors behind them (except for a couple in the low minors).

Regardless, if they can't sign Machado when there was no upper market competition, Betts is not realistic.

On a side note, I'd like to see them trade some of the Sheets' for some similarly situated pitching (or middle infield where, as usual, they have nothing in the minors aside from Madrigal who will be needed this year).

Don’t side with your evaluation of our pitchers there but I already admit Betts as a FA is a major long shot.

Toodles.

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9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

There was a link posted here.

A link to what?  From an accounting perspective, the signing bonus is amortized over the life of the contract.  But from a cash perspective, my guess is this goes against their 2020 payroll budget as they probably run on a November to October fiscal year.

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13 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

A link to what?  From an accounting perspective, the signing bonus is amortized over the life of the contract.  But from a cash perspective, my guess is this goes against their 2020 payroll budget as they probably run on a November to October fiscal year.

They put it on 2019.

I imagine for their budgetary purposes it bought them an additional 5 million this year. 

It's an article posted in the abreu thread here. Says it's only 11 million this year for them for abreu.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run
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Sign Zack Wheeler 5 years/105 million (21 million AAV)

Sign Dallas Kuechel 3 years/45 million (15 million AAV)

Sign Kole Calhoun 1 year/8 million (8 million AAV)
If non tendered, sign Steven Souza 1 year/3 million (3 million AAV)
*These two would platoon

Sign Daniel Hudson 2 years/18 million (9 million AAV)

This would put the payroll between 135-140 million

I have no clue on trades, but I could see a trade for a SP instead of signing Kuechel.

Edited by GGajewski18
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7 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Sign Zack Wheeler 5 years/105 million (21 million AAV)

Sign Dallas Kuechel 3 years/45 million (15 million AAV)

Sign Kole Calhoun 1 year/8 million (8 million AAV)
If non tendered, sign Steven Souza 1 year/3 million (3 million AAV)
*These two would platoon

Sign Daniel Hudson 2 years/18 million (9 million AAV)

This would put the payroll between 135-140 million

I have no clue on trades, but I could see a trade for a SP instead of signing Kuechel.

Puke

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7 minutes ago, GGajewski18 said:

Sign Zack Wheeler 5 years/105 million (21 million AAV)

Sign Dallas Kuechel 3 years/45 million (15 million AAV)

Sign Kole Calhoun 1 year/8 million (8 million AAV)
If non tendered, sign Steven Souza 1 year/3 million (3 million AAV)
*These two would platoon

Sign Daniel Hudson 2 years/18 million (9 million AAV)

This would put the payroll between 135-140 million

I have no clue on trades, but I could see a trade for a SP instead of signing Kuechel.

Why are we giving out more than 1 multi year deal?  I have seen this argued on here and it doesn't make any sense.

2021 we would have in this scenario

Gio

Wheeler

Keuchel

Kopech

Cease

Lopez

Rodon

*Dunning

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3 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Why are we giving out more than 1 multi year deal?  I have seen this argued on here and it doesn't make any sense.

2021 we would have in this scenario

Gio

Wheeler

Keuchel

Kopech

Cease

Lopez

Rodon

*Dunning

Because the bottom 4 are big unknowns and can become trade chips if things go according to plan. If any of the top 4 falter, we will have other options, or at the very least, a deeper bullpen. 

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5 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said:

Because the bottom 4 are big unknowns and can become trade chips if things go according to plan. If any of the top 4 falter, we will have other options, or at the very least, a deeper bullpen. 

Yeah, I just don't see it as the best way to allocate allegedly limited resources.  You have 6 SP that will be on the roster in 2021, 7 if they get Wheeler.  You only need an extra arm this year because of Kopech.  It just doesn't make any sense to give a guy like Keuchel a multi year deal if we are getting Wheeler.  You can asses the pitching more after this season if Lopez is still struggling.

It would make more sense to get an actual RF.

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