Sarava Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 It's frustrating that we're all resigned to the reality that our team is too cheap to go after top notch talent. With the lowest committed payroll in baseball, plus living in the 3rd largest city in the country - why are Cole and Strasburg off limits? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 29 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I keep seeing people saying it will be so hard for us to be competitive next year, but I see the path being right there with even a realistic offseason. This is just one example of what we could do in free agency (my personal plan would be a little different) that should make us competitive in 2020: Wheeler - 5/$100M Grandal - 3/$60M Smith - 3/$36M Dickerson - 1/$11M Wood - 1$10M This proposed roster would require no trades to fill holes (maintaining all minor league depth) and would have a total payroll of $130M excluding Rodon (which I think is a totally reasonable target for 2020). Based on my quick & dirty fWAR projections, this team would theoretically win 95 games next year. Yes, it requires some growth from our of young guys as well as Madrigal & Robert being useful right out of the gate, but I think their defense & speed will make them high floor players in their rookie seasons. Anyway, feel free to flame away and tell me where I'm totally off-base! I'd rather sign Cole Hamels to a one year deal than Wood. You have much higher upside and the extra money would give you a better pitcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: I keep seeing people saying it will be so hard for us to be competitive next year, but I see the path being right there with even a realistic offseason. This is just one example of what we could do in free agency (my personal plan would be a little different) that should make us competitive in 2020: Wheeler - 5/$100M Grandal - 3/$60M Smith - 3/$36M Dickerson - 1/$11M Wood - 1$10M This proposed roster would require no trades to fill holes (maintaining all minor league depth) and would have a total payroll of $130M excluding Rodon (which I think is a totally reasonable target for 2020). Based on my quick & dirty fWAR projections, this team would theoretically win 95 games next year. Yes, it requires some growth from our of young guys as well as Madrigal & Robert being useful right out of the gate, but I think their defense & speed will make them high floor players in their rookie seasons. Anyway, feel free to flame away and tell me where I'm totally off-base! This doesn't go anywhere near far enough filling the DH/RF gaps for my tastes. I do like Wheeler as a fallback, assuming our team is too cheap for the top guns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Sarava said: It's frustrating that we're all resigned to the reality that our team is too cheap to go after top notch talent. With the lowest committed payroll in baseball, plus living in the 3rd largest city in the country - why are Cole and Strasburg off limits? It probably has more to do with Cole not wanting to come here. I do think we will make a legit run at Bum and Stras though. We need a pitcher with post season experience to lead our staff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 1 minute ago, SonofaRoache said: It probably has more to do with Cole not wanting to come here. I do think we will make a legit run at Bum and Stras though. We need a pitcher with post season experience to lead our staff. Funny, Cole hasn't lost since the Sox beat him in May. But for him not coming here. I've always assumed it is because we are too cheap. What makes anyone think he wouldn't want to come here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: I'd rather sign Cole Hamels to a one year deal than Wood. You have much higher upside and the extra money would give you a better pitcher. It’s funny you say that, because I initially had Hamels in there but needed $5M in order to add Smith and stay under the $130M target, so I decided to go with Wood instead. Again, this isn’t perfect and I’d definitely do some things differently (Grandal & Wheeler are priorities for me however), but it’s more meant to show how quickly this roster can turn around with further growth from our young core, adding a couple high-end but not necessarily elite free agents, and just plugging our remaining holes with passable veterans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sarava said: Funny, Cole hasn't lost since the Sox beat him in May. But for him not coming here. I've always assumed it is because we are too cheap. What makes anyone think he wouldn't want to come here? Talk seems to be that he and Bum likes the west coast warm weather lifestyle and big time spot light. To get him, we would probably have to overpay by a decent margin. Once a player crosses 200 million on a deal, they can be more selective. I wouldn't be shocked if San Diego gets Cole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: It probably has more to do with Cole not wanting to come here. I do think we will make a legit run at Bum and Stras though. We need a pitcher with post season experience to lead our staff. Wheeler is way better than Bumgarner IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: It’s funny you say that, because I initially had Hamels in there but needed $5M in order to add Smith and stay under the $130M target, so I decided to go with Wood instead. Again, this isn’t perfect and I’d definitely do some things differently (Grandal & Wheeler are priorities for me however), but it’s more meant to show how quickly this roster can turn around with further growth from our young core, adding a couple high-end but not necessarily elite free agents, and just plugging our remaining holes with passable veterans. Well hopefully they don't let 5 million stop them from getting a more reliable pitcher who has pitched well in the AL. I also agree that us fans are scared to think we can win 95 games. Our roster turnover and internal improvement will be significant. And our division leaders will get weaker starting this off season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, Sarava said: This doesn't go anywhere near far enough filling the DH/RF gaps for my tastes. I do like Wheeler as a fallback, assuming our team is too cheap for the top guns. DH/C would be a trio amongst Grandal, Collins, & McCann. With Vaughn a potential late season addition, I’m all for that. Let me ask you this, if you’re forced to stay under $130M, what would you do differently? I’d personally to look into acquiring a RF via trade, but trying to do a FA only roster build. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Wheeler is way better than Bumgarner IMO. Bum has never had an era over 3.90 and is a really good pitcher. I prefer him first because he has post season experience and has some edge to him. If we couldn't get Cole or Stras I would want both of these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daggins Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: It’s funny you say that, because I initially had Hamels in there but needed $5M in order to add Smith and stay under the $130M target, so I decided to go with Wood instead. Again, this isn’t perfect and I’d definitely do some things differently (Grandal & Wheeler are priorities for me however), but it’s more meant to show how quickly this roster can turn around with further growth from our young core, adding a couple high-end but not necessarily elite free agents, and just plugging our remaining holes with passable veterans. I think the Moncada prediction is wildly optimistic, but yeah otherwise that looks realistic. I would agree that this team will be helped quite a bit by not giving 1000+ PA to negative WAR guys. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: DH/C would be a trio amongst Grandal, Collins, & McCann. With Vaughn a potential late season addition, I’m all for that. Let me ask you this, if you’re forced to stay under $130M, what would you do differently? I’d personally to look into acquiring a RF via trade, but trying to do a FA only roster build. To do what the Sox want to do they are gonna have to approach 150 for 7 years. That puts them above the Reds and Mariners and with previous discounts there are no more excuses. Market this roster as a playoff contender after free agency to get fans in the seats and roll forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SonofaRoache Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Just now, daggins said: I think the Moncada prediction is wildly optimistic, but yeah otherwise that looks realistic. I would agree that this team will be helped quite a bit by not giving 1000+ PA to negative WAR guys. I don't think Moncada is wildly optimistic, although it is optimistic. He will lose some of his BA but I think he hits about 6 to10 more homers and increases his XBH's over the course of 2020. His defense should also slightly improve with a year at third under his belt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, daggins said: I think the Moncada prediction is wildly optimistic, but yeah otherwise that looks realistic. I would agree that this team will be helped quite a bit by not giving 1000+ PA to negative WAR guys. Moncada would have approached that this season with 155 games. He put up 5.7 fWAR in 136 games. With 155 games this year he would have put up 6.5 fWAR, assuming similar production. It's not that crazy. Edited October 5, 2019 by Jack Parkman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmags Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 10 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: Bum has never had an era over 3.90 and is a really good pitcher. I prefer him first because he has post season experience and has some edge to him. If we couldn't get Cole or Stras I would want both of these guys. Bum is the perfect vet pitcher to add to a young team aspiring to go to playoffs. And more so than wheeler, seems like that pitcher that just can grind even when stuff fails. Id be thrilled with Bum, and holding my breath with Wheeler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 29 minutes ago, Sarava said: It's frustrating that we're all resigned to the reality that our team is too cheap to go after top notch talent. With the lowest committed payroll in baseball, plus living in the 3rd largest city in the country - why are Cole and Strasburg off limits? The rumor that Reinsdorf wants to build second place teams at best makes a lot of sense when you look at the context. That's why top talent is off limits. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daggins Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Moncada would have approached that this season with 155 games. He put up 5.7 fWAR in 136 games. With 155 games this year he would have put up 6.5 fWAR, assuming similar production. It's not that crazy. I wouldn't project him to repeat his BABIP performance, but sure, if his power ticks up and the walks come back I think he could hit that. I just wouldn't project it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Parkman Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 Just now, daggins said: I wouldn't project him to repeat his BABIP performance, but sure, if his power ticks up and the walks come back I think he could hit that. I just wouldn't project it. He hits the ball hard. His xBABIP was .386. His actual BABIP was .403. It's actually sustainable, wild as it sounds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 16 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said: I want this. JDM Nick Castellanos Grandal 1 of Cole, Stras, Wheeler 1 of Ryu, Odorizzi, Alex Wood, Julio Teheran (if the Braves don't pick him up) 2 pen arms. I'd prefer to trade for a LH RF but we don't have anything to trade. Castellanos' Defensive shortfalls I think are overblown because of Comerica. I want that bat and JDM's in our lineup I don't see us getting both JDM and Grandal. Part of the Grandal allure is ability to DH. The rest of your "wants" are how I see it as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 16 minutes ago, daggins said: I think the Moncada prediction is wildly optimistic, but yeah otherwise that looks realistic. I would agree that this team will be helped quite a bit by not giving 1000+ PA to negative WAR guys. It may be on the aggressive end, but Yoan was at 5.7 fWAR this year and I think he’s still got a world of untapped potential and fully expect him get better as a 25 year old playing second full season at 3B in 2020. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 20 minutes ago, SonofaRoache said: To do what the Sox want to do they are gonna have to approach 150 for 7 years. That puts them above the Reds and Mariners and with previous discounts there are no more excuses. Market this roster as a playoff contender after free agency to get fans in the seats and roll forward. Let me explain. I expect them to be in the $130M to $140M range next year and gradually see that payroll grow to ~$180M by 2022 or so as guys are locked or hit arbitration. Now, if they were to add Cole maybe that changes the calculus a little bit, but I’m trying to demonstrate a realistic scenario not an optimistic one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Let me explain. I expect them to be in the $130M to $140M range next year and gradually see that payroll grow to ~$180M by 2022 or so as guys are locked or hit arbitration. Now, if they were to add Cole maybe that changes the calculus a little bit, but I’m trying to demonstrate a realistic scenario not an optimistic one. That's where signing JD Martinez to a 4 year deal might make sense. It pushes us up beyond 130 right now, but by the time Giolito, Moncada,Robert, etc. are all starting to really get paid, his money will fall off the books. And let's be honest, JD Martinez is a massive improvement not only over the DH debacle the Sox had in 2019, but your trio that would split Catching and DH duties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poppysox Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 I don't get the negativity so often expressed on all things front office. We are where they indicated the Sox would be when we started the rebuild. Actually we are probably ahead of schedule a bit. We are starting with 2020 a good long run of competitive teams. Probably the beginning of the longest stretch of solid teams since the 1950's. Enjoy the offseason as the final parts are assembled and enjoy the next decade or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarava Posted October 5, 2019 Share Posted October 5, 2019 28 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said: Moncada would have approached that this season with 155 games. He put up 5.7 fWAR in 136 games. With 155 games this year he would have put up 6.5 fWAR, assuming similar production. It's not that crazy. I love Moncada, but he's also the kind of player that always gets nicked up and misses some games here or there. You might not see a lot of 155+ game seasons out of him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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