A Realistic Offseason

[bmags]

15 hours ago, Black_Jack29 said:

I just get the feeling that Bumgarner’s arm is going to fall off any minute now.

His velo recovered this year compared to last. 

[Black_Jack29]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

His velo recovered this year compared to last. 

I know, but seeing the way that he's been over-used in the playoffs in previous years... I just have this illogical gut feeling that he's due for a long-term velocity decline at some point in the near future.

[steveno89]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

His velo recovered this year compared to last. 

I worry a bit about a career NL pitcher with a ton of mileage on his arm moving over to the AL. I do not see him signing with the Sox. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

16 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

I don't winning baseball is predicated building around a particular superstar, see Trout, Harper, Machado examples. If at any point you get a deal for a superstar that's going to give you incredible surplus value in return, you have to at least explore it. Unfortunately Moncada took a good 3+ seasons to figure it out and has "only" 4 years of team control left. If your point is Lux, Verdugo, and May are risky assets due to their age (though I'd argue Verdugo is as safe, if not more, as Moncada at this point), then I won't debate, but my personal opinion is, and I have been following these 3 guys close enough, is they're fairly low risk as far as prospects go.

No one said it was, but the rebuild was kicked off by acquiring moncada. Now that its close to coming go fruition you want to trade him for more prospect risks. 

Also, why would the Dodgers trade all those guys if they were safer/better than Moncada?

As I said, you can phrase it however youd like but it's the perpetual rebuild model. Always getting younger and accumulating more. At some point you need to move forward with what you have, not hit the refresh button over and over again.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I worry a bit about a career NL pitcher with a ton of mileage on his arm moving over to the AL. I do not see him signing with the Sox. 

He has said he has no interest in pitching in the AL so I don't think theres too much to worry or think about.

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I worry a bit about a career NL pitcher with a ton of mileage on his arm moving over to the AL. I do not see him signing with the Sox. 

Can someone give me a good example of this? To be honest I've sort of hardened in my mind recently that some pitchers hit an age and threshold where this miles argument doesn't hold water for me. The board was celebrating how Verlander was done because he was overused. 

I suppose Price would be the best example of this (in terms of being used a lot then falling off in big payday)?

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

Can someone give me a good example of this? To be honest I've sort of hardened in my mind recently that some pitchers hit an age and threshold where this miles argument doesn't hold water for me. The board was celebrating how Verlander was done because he was overused. 

I suppose Price would be the best example of this (in terms of being used a lot then falling off in big payday)?

Are you specifically asking about the NL to AL shift part or are you asking about a guy hitting a wall unexpectedly right after a big payday? Darvish comes to mind on the guy hitting a wall issue. Cole Hamels is an interesting case on the other as his ERA with the Phillies was 3.30, his ERA with the Cubs was 3.30, his ERA with the Rangers was 3.90.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Are you specifically asking about the NL to AL shift part or are you asking about a guy hitting a wall unexpectedly right after a big payday? Darvish comes to mind on the guy hitting a wall issue. Cole Hamels is an interesting case on the other as his ERA with the Phillies was 3.30, his ERA with the Cubs was 3.30, his ERA with the Rangers was 3.90.

Yeah more the wall part. I don't really think the nl/al thing is a big deal, Kershaw wouldn't have mid 2 eras in the AL but still would have been a top pitcher.

For me I just wouldn't put darvish on Bums level. I probably need a way to categorize this pitcher that I see makes Bum the reliable one but for me Darvish is a lot like Strasburg in that they were very productive and dominant but were the ones who could not provide that consistent 180+ IP. Bum's unrelated-to-baseball injury was the only time he couldn't make that.

To me that's actually a sign he will continue to provide value, not that he is "maxed out". But I guess I would need a list of pitchers performance who averaged like 180+ or more innings over their first 6 years and see how they did since 2000?

[steveno89]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah more the wall part. I don't really think the nl/al thing is a big deal, Kershaw wouldn't have mid 2 eras in the AL but still would have been a top pitcher.

For me I just wouldn't put darvish on Bums level. I probably need a way to categorize this pitcher that I see makes Bum the reliable one but for me Darvish is a lot like Strasburg in that they were very productive and dominant but were the ones who could not provide that consistent 180+ IP. Bum's unrelated-to-baseball injury was the only time he couldn't make that.

To me that's actually a sign he will continue to provide value, not that he is "maxed out". But I guess I would need a list of pitchers performance who averaged like 180+ or more innings over their first 6 years and see how they did since 2000?

I see the Sox spending money this offseason, but not really being in on any of the elite free agents like Cole/Rendon/Stras/Bum

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah more the wall part. I don't really think the nl/al thing is a big deal, Kershaw wouldn't have mid 2 eras in the AL but still would have been a top pitcher.

For me I just wouldn't put darvish on Bums level. I probably need a way to categorize this pitcher that I see makes Bum the reliable one but for me Darvish is a lot like Strasburg in that they were very productive and dominant but were the ones who could not provide that consistent 180+ IP. Bum's unrelated-to-baseball injury was the only time he couldn't make that.

To me that's actually a sign he will continue to provide value, not that he is "maxed out". But I guess I would need a list of pitchers performance who averaged like 180+ or more innings over their first 6 years and see how they did since 2000?

Verlanders are exceptions to the rule.

For every verlander there are 5 Felix Hernandez'. 

[bmags]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

I see the Sox spending money this offseason, but not really being in on any of the elite free agents like Cole/Rendon/Stras/Bum

I'm going to be honest, despite being in the realistic offseason thread, for the next two months I'm much less interested in what I see the sox doing compared to what I'd like the sox to be doing.

[thxfrthmmrs]

19 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No one said it was, but the rebuild was kicked off by acquiring moncada. Now that its close to coming go fruition you want to trade him for more prospect risks. 

Also, why would the Dodgers trade all those guys if they were safer/better than Moncada?

As I said, you can phrase it however youd like but it's the perpetual rebuild model. Always getting younger and accumulating more. At some point you need to move forward with what you have, not hit the refresh button over and over again.

In the proposed scenario, the goal is to maximize our competitive window as much as possible, and in a vacuum, it doesn't matter how the rebuild started. While realistically we may be able to compete for the division in 2020, I don't think we're a true contender until Robert, Madrigal, Kopech and Cease are more seasoned, and Lux, Verdugo and May aligns well with their timeline.

If I had the time to put together a chart of projected WAR by year for before and after the trades and including the very hypothetical signings of Rendon and Betts,  the Moncada and Anderson trade sets up the team well for the 2021 - 2026 window. I do acknowledge the risk there, but it's relatively moderate risk I'm willing to consider. Even in 2020, I think we'd end up with similar record compared to with Moncada plus $50 mil in free agent spending.

[almagest]

8 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

That wasn’t the full context. By moving Moncada for 3 cost controlled players with high floor and ceiling and address your needs, you free up money to go after a Rendon type. There is a good chance Rendon, Turner, plus those 3 would outWAR Moncada, Lopez plus Wheeler, Grandal, and Gardner in 2020.

I wouldn't think about that until he's closer to free agency and you don't think you can resign him. No guarantee you're going to get what you want for trading him. Honestly, you'll probably get a similar package to what we got for him in the first place - one higher minors top 20 prospect and a couple of lower-level solid options. I don't think teams can afford much more than that and trading him now with so many years left on his deal after a 5+ WAR season would mean we'd need to get more back to make it worth it.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

The way I see it:

Strasberg - not available, my prediction is the Nationals will rework his deal to tack on another year and he'll sign there instead of opting out.

Bumgarner - not available; Bumgarner has made it very clear he has no intention of playing AL baseball.

That leaves Cole and Wheeler. I think theres a chance Cole resigns with the Astros if they win the World Series. If not, they're less likely to retain him. I would guess some team, not a big three team, will overbid the market to retain Coles services - I'll say, 7 years 240 million. The White Sox will not go to that level for an arm and they probably shouldn't as they cant afford a miss of that size to an arm.

White Sox sign Wheeler - 4 years, 85 million. 

If they whiff in Wheeler, I'll say they give Odorizzi 4 years, 70 million. 

If they whiff there, god bless us Sox fans.

Edited October 7, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

In the proposed scenario, the goal is to maximize our competitive window as much as possible, and in a vacuum, it doesn't matter how the rebuild started. While realistically we may be able to compete for the division in 2020, I don't think we're a true contender until Robert, Madrigal, Kopech and Cease are more seasoned, and Lux, Verdugo and May aligns well with their timeline.

If I had the time to put together a chart of projected WAR by year for before and after the trades and including the very hypothetical signings of Rendon and Betts,  the Moncada and Anderson trade sets up the team well for the 2021 - 2026 window. I do acknowledge the risk there, but it's relatively moderate risk I'm willing to consider. Even in 2020, I think we'd end up with similar record compared to with Moncada plus $50 mil in free agent spending.

By adding Rendon and Betts contracts you're adding way more risk than I think you are acknowledging. 

That said, I think we've all wasted far too much time on a scenario that would never happen. 

What I cant process is why you think that trade would be accepted by the Dodgers if there was a substantial edge to the White Sox. All things considered, trades need to be reasonably fair and fair value for Moncada would encompass added risk to an already risky filled rebuild.

I like your outside the box thinking, I just am not a fan of the execution but its just my opinion - it's not some superior outlook versus yours.

[thxfrthmmrs]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

By adding Rendon and Betts contracts you're adding way more risk than I think you are acknowledging. 

That said, I think we've all wasted far too much time on a scenario that would never happen. 

What I cant process is why you think that trade would be accepted by the Dodgers if there was a substantial edge to the White Sox. All things considered, trades need to be reasonably fair and fair value for Moncada would encompass added risk to an already risky filled rebuild.

I like your outside the box thinking, I just am not a fan of the execution but its just my opinion - it's not some superior outlook versus yours.

This part was in the original post.

[Chicago White Sox]

40 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The way I see it:

Strasberg - not available, my prediction is the Nationals will rework his deal to tack on another year and he'll sign there instead of opting out.

Bumgarner - not available; Bumgarner has made it very clear he has no intention of playing AL baseball.

That leaves Cole and Wheeler. I think theres a chance Cole resigns with the Astros if they win the World Series. If not, they're less likely to retain him. I would guess some team, not a big three team, will overbid the market to retain Coles services - I'll say, 7 years 240 million. The White Sox will not go to that level for an arm and they probably shouldn't as they cant afford a miss of that size to an arm.

White Sox sign Wheeler - 4 years, 85 million. 

If they whiff in Wheeler, I'll say they give Odorizzi 4 years, 70 million. 

If they whiff there, god bless us Sox fans.

Wheeler is totally the target IMO.  Just feels like a guy the Sox would love.

[KennyPowers]

15 hours ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

WARNING: Radical idea here.

I mostly got this idea from a Red Sox article:

https://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20191005/radical-strategy-may-be-just-what-sox-need

Granted this guy (named Bill Koch, no less) is smoking crack with some of his ideas, but a more balanced version of the Devers to Dodgers trade is what I want to explore.

Trade Moncada, Lopez, Burdi, Herrera to Dodgers for Turner, Lux, Verdugo, May

Trade Anderson to Dbacks for Zac Gallen and Alek Thomas

Yolmer is traded or non-tendered.

Salary with arb and pre-arb is roughly $60M

Free agency:

Moustakas 3/$45M, Abreu 2/$30M with team option for 3rd, Hamels 1/$13 with team option for 2nd, Hendrick 1/$6, Cishek 2/$12M

Salary is about $115M still having room to play with. If you're a dreamer, Rendon would been a fun add for about $20M AAV more than Moose. But as it stands, this team is ready to compete.

CF Robert

SS Lux (L)

DH Abreu

1B turner

3B Moose (L)

LF Eloy

RF Verdugo (L)

C McCann

2B Madrigal

Bench: Hendrick/Leury/Collins/Mendick

Rotation. Giolito/Hamels/Gallen/Cease/May with Kopech and Rodon as depth pieces

BP: Colome/Bummer/Cishek/Fry/Marshall/Osich/Cordero/Lindgren

Thoughts: Steep price to pay for LAD, and I think Dodgers' rationale for trade for Moncada is their one of the best teams in helping players cut down their K% and improving aprpoach. Moncada could be a top 5 player under their tutelage. They move 3 valuable young pieces in Lux, Verdugo and May, but none of  them has similar upside and is proven like Yoan. Plus I think they're also one of the few teams that could fix ReyLo. For White Sox, moving Moncada is hard, and perhaps irrational, but they get immense value in return and fill holes in RF and SP with MLB ready, cost controlled talent. By moving Yoan and Timmy for younger players, they effective extended their window by a year or two, while remaining competitive in 2020. Verdugo and Gallen are someone I could see RH extending to buy out a few years of their free agency. Lastly, looking ahead to  2021, Turner walks and Vaughn is primed to take over. Sox should has PLENTY of payroll left to land a big fish, e.g. Betts if they still need him.

If you were expecting a realistic offseason plan, that may have been disappointing.

 

 

Shouldn't this be in the "Unrealistic Offseason" thread?  Just asking

 

 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

So,

I usually put together an off-season plan every year; store them, and evaluate them at later dates - I used to have dreams too! This is just one sheet from my 2020 workbook, but it sums up the 25 man roster, the payroll obligations, the potential signings.

I want to emphasize this is a combination of what I "like" but mostly what I think is possible based on the Sox habits and tendencies in the past. For example, I have one with JD Martinez - which is what i'd like - and this one which doesn't include him. I'm not sure how this will copy and paste here so I'll paste a picture of the excel export instead:

 

 

Edited October 7, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So,

I usually put together an off-season plan every year; store them, and evaluate them at later dates - I used to have dreams too. This is just one sheet from my 2020 workbook, but it sums up the 25 man roster, the payroll obligations, the potential signings.

I want to emphasize this is a combination of what I "like" but mostly what I think is possible based on the Sox habits and tendencies in the past. For example, I have one with JD Martinez - which is what i'd like - and this one which doesn't include him. I'm not sure how this will copy and paste here so I'll paste a picture of the excel export instead:

 

 

A couple pointers; I am obviously aggressive with Robert's projection but that is because I think his impact defensively and on the base paths will carry him to a 3 WAR season without any bat support out of the gate. If he hits at an 800 OPS clip, he's likely a 4 WAR player from day 1. I also think the extremely high floor on Madrigal means 2.5 is attainable from year one.

My Abreu WAR is slightly elevated; I penalize 1st baseman less than fWAR does for their defense. I also think Abreu will spend some time at DH but we'll see about that.

If the Sox want to sign Grandal, then I would move Leury or Engel out and put him in there - same thing with JDM. Obviously that would push payroll closer to 140,000,000 million but their win projection would go up to about 98.

Outside of that I'm not too aggressive. I think Timmy will actually grow from this year, but projection wise I couldn't put anymore weight into this years performance than I already am. Moncada's WAR is reasonable, and I actually think I have undersold Kopech but it's because I do think the White Sox will take a slower approach with him.

Edited October 7, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[daggins]

I kind of doubt any team wants Puig on anything more than a 1-year deal. He's pretty bad now.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

15 minutes ago, daggins said:

I kind of doubt any team wants Puig on anything more than a 1-year deal. He's pretty bad now.

I agree, for the record. My contract to him may be a little high. It's really difficult to read his market or to see it because hes been very inconsistent. 3 years 36,000,000 may be high and he might be a 2 year 20 million dollar guy. 

I don't want puig, and think it would be a poor signing, but it's a very White Sox signing and they have liked Puig for a while.

If the Sox have faith in their young starters, they can bypass the odorizzi signing, take his money and Puig's money and sign ozuna or JDM.

Edited October 7, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[bmags]

3 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Verlanders are exceptions to the rule.

For every verlander there are 5 Felix Hernandez'. 

I don't buy this. I can't claim this idea of, I don't know, "Workhorse Ace" or whatever I'm giving Bumgarner is well-defined. I get that.

But I just picked a handful of some of the best workhorse ace pitchers I can remember in the last 20 years. Some I misremembered as workhorses (I totally forgot Chris Carpenter was a dave duncan special), but it certainly doesn't convince me that there are 5 felix's for 1 verlander. 

I looked at the following pitchers:

Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Bartolo Colon, Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Mussina, Pettitte, Price, Sabathia, Shields, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Kershaw, Lester, Hamels.

Players like Sale were left off because he's only 30 now.

By age 29 (bumgarner's age season), this group averaged 31.6 fWAR (Bumgarner has 31.3). The average IP was 1476 (Bumgarner was 1829)*.

If I could do a really good baseball reference search I would probably set a min WAR of at least 20 and IP of at least 1200 by age 29. But obviously this was handpicked list.

In terms of IP and debut, Bumgarners closest peers are Felix, Greinke, Kershaw, Sabathia and Hernandez. 

That group (including Hernandez, but minus Kershaw due to age) averaged 12 WAR over that 4 year period, Kershaw has 6.7 in his first two years and keeps pace.

I because this was a subsection of pitchers that I can remember being long-term successful, it isn't a great sample. But I'm not convinced it's obvious that there are 5 felix's for 1 Scherzer. These guys being so successful are already outliers. It doesn't mean their 30s will be as successful as their 20s or close, but it may very well mean they will still be quite productive.

[soxfan49]

Marcell Ozuna is trying to get paid

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

9 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't buy this. I can't claim this idea of, I don't know, "Workhorse Ace" or whatever I'm giving Bumgarner is well-defined. I get that.

But I just picked a handful of some of the best workhorse ace pitchers I can remember in the last 20 years. Some I misremembered as workhorses (I totally forgot Chris Carpenter was a dave duncan special), but it certainly doesn't convince me that there are 5 felix's for 1 verlander. 

I looked at the following pitchers:

Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Bartolo Colon, Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Mussina, Pettitte, Price, Sabathia, Shields, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Kershaw, Lester, Hamels.

Players like Sale were left off because he's only 30 now.

By age 29 (bumgarner's age season), this group averaged 31.6 fWAR (Bumgarner has 31.3). The average IP was 1476 (Bumgarner was 1829)*.

If I could do a really good baseball reference search I would probably set a min WAR of at least 20 and IP of at least 1200 by age 29. But obviously this was handpicked list.

In terms of IP and debut, Bumgarners closest peers are Felix, Greinke, Kershaw, Sabathia and Hernandez. 

That group (including Hernandez, but minus Kershaw due to age) averaged 12 WAR over that 4 year period, Kershaw has 6.7 in his first two years and keeps pace.

I because this was a subsection of pitchers that I can remember being long-term successful, it isn't a great sample. But I'm not convinced it's obvious that there are 5 felix's for 1 Scherzer. These guys being so successful are already outliers. It doesn't mean their 30s will be as successful as their 20s or close, but it may very well mean they will still be quite productive.

I'll see if I can pull this out of all the data I have exported out - I believe I only have data from 2000-2019.

The problem with using a memory of work horses if you tend to remember the arms that survived into their late 30's and not the ones that flamed out. For example, someone like Jon Garland would qualify under your innings set but you wouldnt have considered him - he was never that good but he ate innings until he was 30, had some good seasons sprinkled in and then was out of baseball by 32-33.

Some other quick adds from a quick scan - Roy Oswalt, Javy Vazquez, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, David Price, Dan Haren.

Edited October 7, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run