A Realistic Offseason

[steveno89]

2 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I agree, for the record. My contract to him may be a little high. It's really difficult to read his market or to see it because hes been very inconsistent. 3 years 36,000,000 may be high and he might be a 2 year 20 million dollar guy. 

I don't want puig, and think it would be a poor signing, but it's a very White Sox signing and they have liked Puig for a while.

If the Sox have faith in their young starters, they can bypass the odorizzi signing, take his money and Puig's money and sign ozuna or JDM.

I doubt any one team will sign Wheeler and Odorizzi

 

10 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Marcell Ozuna is trying to get paid

Ozuna is a candidate to get overpaid this offseason due to a shallow FA class overall. He's a solid 2.5-3 WAR starter, but any team that signs him expecting more than that will likely end up being disappointed. 2017 he had a .359 BABIP that inflated his stats big time. 

[bmags]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'll see if I can pull this out of all the data I have exported out - I believe I only have data from 2000-2019.

The problem with using a memory of work horses if you tend to remember the arms that survived into their late 30's and not the ones that flamed out. For example, someone like Jon Garland would qualify under your innings set but you wouldnt have considered him - he was never that good but he ate innings until he was 30, had some good seasons sprinkled in and then was out of baseball by 32-33.

But that's the thing, they would have broken down by the time they hit an age 29 free agency. 

Garland at 20.7 fWAR is the low side (largely also an innings driven phenomenon, not performance). Considering him starting to pitch by age 20, there is probably a way to categorize average fWAR to get around it, but it's fine he'd be in it. Shields at age 29 was also at 20 fWAR, but was averaging around 3.5 fWAR per season compared to Garlands 2. 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

But that's the thing, they would have broken down by the time they hit an age 29 free agency. 

Garland at 20.7 fWAR is the low side (largely also an innings driven phenomenon, not performance). Considering him starting to pitch by age 20, there is probably a way to categorize average fWAR to get around it, but it's fine he'd be in it. Shields at age 29 was also at 20 fWAR, but was averaging around 3.5 fWAR per season compared to Garlands 2. 

 

I added some names above to my post from a quick scan. I'm not in front of my home computer so I could not run all the parameters you requested, but I'll give it a try when I get home.

Edit a few more names: 

Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Brandon Webb, Weaver.

Edited October 7, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[TheFutureIsNear]

8 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I doubt any one team will sign Wheeler and Odorizzi

 

Ozuna is a candidate to get overpaid this offseason due to a shallow FA class overall. He's a solid 2.5-3 WAR starter, but any team that signs him expecting more than that will likely end up being disappointed. 2017 he had a .359 BABIP that inflated his stats big time. 

I see the opposite for Ozuna. His #’s are only above average and he will likely be tied to a draft pick with the QO. It won’t shock me if he ends up getting something like 3/48...or just take the QO if he really want to stay in St Louis like has alluded to. 

mlbtraderumors did a write up on him today and seem to have the same feelings: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/free-agent-outlook-marcell-ozuna.html

 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, TheFutureIsNear said:

I see the opposite for Ozuna. His #’s are only above average and he will likely be tied to a draft pick with the QO. It won’t shock me if he ends up getting something like 3/48...or just take the QO if he really want to stay in St Louis like has alluded to. 

mlbtraderumors did a write up on him today and seem to have the same feelings: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/free-agent-outlook-marcell-ozuna.html

 

 

The corner outfield market is dead in baseball for mid-tier guys.

[steveno89]

3 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I see the opposite for Ozuna. His #’s are only above average and he will likely be tied to a draft pick with the QO. It won’t shock me if he ends up getting something like 3/48...or just take the QO if he really want to stay in St Louis like has alluded to. 

mlbtraderumors did a write up on him today and seem to have the same feelings: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/free-agent-outlook-marcell-ozuna.html

 

 

The QO certainly tends to depress free agent values outside of elite players. Forfeiting draft pick(s) for guy that will likely be solid starters but not stars is a tough pill to swallow for most clubs outside of true contenders. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The corner outfield market is dead in baseball for mid-tier guys.

The market on players with picks attached has also been dead...I won’t be shocked either way, but I don’t think Ozuna getting paid is a foregone conclusion at all.  

[ChiSox59]

4 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The way I see it:

Strasberg - not available, my prediction is the Nationals will rework his deal to tack on another year and he'll sign there instead of opting out.

Bumgarner - not available; Bumgarner has made it very clear he has no intention of playing AL baseball.

That leaves Cole and Wheeler. I think theres a chance Cole resigns with the Astros if they win the World Series. If not, they're less likely to retain him. I would guess some team, not a big three team, will overbid the market to retain Coles services - I'll say, 7 years 240 million. The White Sox will not go to that level for an arm and they probably shouldn't as they cant afford a miss of that size to an arm.

White Sox sign Wheeler - 4 years, 85 million. 

If they whiff in Wheeler, I'll say they give Odorizzi 4 years, 70 million. 

If they whiff there, god bless us Sox fans.

Odorizzi would not be a very good signing as our main SP add.  He is an extreme flyball pitcher and would get murdered at the cell in the warm months.  

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Odorizzi would not be a very good signing as our main SP add.  He is an extreme flyball pitcher and would get murdered at the cell in the warm months.  

Understand that concern.

I also think my contract to odorizzi was too generous. If the QO is attached to him, I think he probably gets closer to 50 million.

[Perfect Vision]

4 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The way I see it:

Strasberg - not available, my prediction is the Nationals will rework his deal to tack on another year and he'll sign there instead of opting out.

Bumgarner - not available; Bumgarner has made it very clear he has no intention of playing AL baseball.

That leaves Cole and Wheeler. I think theres a chance Cole resigns with the Astros if they win the World Series. If not, they're less likely to retain him. I would guess some team, not a big three team, will overbid the market to retain Coles services - I'll say, 7 years 240 million. The White Sox will not go to that level for an arm and they probably shouldn't as they cant afford a miss of that size to an arm.

White Sox sign Wheeler - 4 years, 85 million. 

If they whiff in Wheeler, I'll say they give Odorizzi 4 years, 70 million. 

If they whiff there, god bless us Sox fans.

I don't doubt that Bumgarner would prefer to stay in the NL.  But if an AL team offered him the most money, would he really turn it down?

[poppysox]

7 hours ago, steveno89 said:

Interesting idea, but trading Moncada would be a total non starter for the Sox. I like Lux, Verdugo and May, but the Sox would be taking a huge risk. 

 

And a PR nightmare.

[soxfan49]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

I doubt any one team will sign Wheeler and Odorizzi

 

Ozuna is a candidate to get overpaid this offseason due to a shallow FA class overall. He's a solid 2.5-3 WAR starter, but any team that signs him expecting more than that will likely end up being disappointed. 2017 he had a .359 BABIP that inflated his stats big time. 

I'm referring to his playoff game today. 2 homers.

[Chicago White Sox]

5 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So,

I usually put together an off-season plan every year; store them, and evaluate them at later dates - I used to have dreams too! This is just one sheet from my 2020 workbook, but it sums up the 25 man roster, the payroll obligations, the potential signings.

I want to emphasize this is a combination of what I "like" but mostly what I think is possible based on the Sox habits and tendencies in the past. For example, I have one with JD Martinez - which is what i'd like - and this one which doesn't include him. I'm not sure how this will copy and paste here so I'll paste a picture of the excel export instead:

 

 

This plan has no DH, only 12 positional guys, and only 25 guys total on the active roster.  Did you forget someone?

[TheFutureIsNear]

Odoorizzi has a very Rick Porcello feel to me...without the fluke cy young. He’s going to get way overpaid to throw 180 innings of 4 era ball. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Yeah I want nothing to do with Odorizzi. Give me Wheeler and Keuchel.

Edited October 8, 2019 by YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!

[3500S]

 

22 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Odoorizzi has a very Rick Porcello feel to me...without the fluke cy young. He’s going to get way overpaid to throw 180 innings of 4 era ball. 

The trap I'm worried about falling into is signing a pitcher hoping he can give the Sox 180 innings of four ERA ball and he winds up giving them 100 innings of seven ERA ball. I'm a little intrigued by Keuchel but Odorizzi and Wheeler do nothing for me. Just feels like every time you go out and get a guy who you want to just be good enough they wind up worse than what you signed them to replace.

[SoxBlanco]

53 minutes ago, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

Yeah I want nothing to do with Odorizzi. Give me Wheeler and Keuchel.

I agree. If Cole is unrealistic, I want Wheeler, Keuchel, a bullpen arm, Grandal, and a one-year RF. 

[ChiSox59]

9 hours ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

So,

I usually put together an off-season plan every year; store them, and evaluate them at later dates - I used to have dreams too! This is just one sheet from my 2020 workbook, but it sums up the 25 man roster, the payroll obligations, the potential signings.

I want to emphasize this is a combination of what I "like" but mostly what I think is possible based on the Sox habits and tendencies in the past. For example, I have one with JD Martinez - which is what i'd like - and this one which doesn't include him. I'm not sure how this will copy and paste here so I'll paste a picture of the excel export instead:

 

 

96 wins is incredibly optimistic if Puig is the best position player added. In fact, 85 wins would be optimistic with that team. Sox need a much more impactful offseason if they’re remotely serious about competing. 

[ChiSox59]

6 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I see the opposite for Ozuna. His #’s are only above average and he will likely be tied to a draft pick with the QO. It won’t shock me if he ends up getting something like 3/48...or just take the QO if he really want to stay in St Louis like has alluded to. 

mlbtraderumors did a write up on him today and seem to have the same feelings: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/free-agent-outlook-marcell-ozuna.html

 

 

Not an Ozuna fan at all, but if you can get him at 3/60 or less you do it. I don’t see that happening. 

[oldsox]

Does Ozuna's yellow sleeve come with him?  I hope not.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

OK @bmags

I transferred all my data sets over to my work computer and I'm running an analysis now. 

Here are the top 46 pitchers since 2000 in regards to IP - this puts the threshold right around 2000 innings pitched.

I will break this down further to year by year to see what their WAR expectations were based on every 200 IP interval as their career progressed. 

If you have anything else you'd like me to look at further, let me know. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Some observations off the bat:

I set the threshold at 1800 innings since 2000 as the barometer of a work horse like arm. 

1. Pitchers that exceeded the 1800 inning limit had a significantly higher WAR/IP than pitchers who did not. Pitchers > 1800 IP = .016 WAR/IP. Pitchers < 1800 IP = .010

2. I don't have age data exported - simply IP data. I haven't exported all the players BDay's so I can only analyze a pitchers fall off based on age; I can only do it based on work load which I believe has a greater impact on arm failure than age. 

3. Mark Buehrle is the 9th most productive pitcher in all of baseball since 2000. Beast.

4. Clayton Kershaw and Randy Johnson are light years better than the competition - coming in at .028 WAR/IP while the next closest is .026 which is Max Scherzer.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

As we can see from the attached, there is a significant downward trend as the innings go up - we notice a spike last year, but that is because certain pitchers qualified for the threshold for the first time last year.

Despite the WAR totals increasing as more pitchers become eligible based on the 1800 inning limit, we see an overall decrease in WAR/IP.

 

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

And I broke them all down individually as well:

Here are the first 8.

I think you can see the trend here. Scherzer and Verlander are not the norm. 

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

And I broke them all down individually as well:

Here are the first 8.

I think you can see the trend here. Scherzer and Verlander are not the norm. 

Thanks, I really need age though.

I don't know if they hit 1800 IP at age 33 or 29. Considering the lower IPs thrown I'd guess it has started to occur later in a pitchers age.

I'm not advocating that aging curves don't exist, but that those that pitched at a high level and consistently higher IPs were not more likely to fall off due to "mileage", and in fact were better bets. But that's not in perpetuity, there is an age where decline hits. But for Bumgarner we are talking about the age 30-33 seasons as the real bulk of the contract you'd need him for.