A Realistic Offseason

[bmags]

I always figured he'd go to yankees.

[BackDoorBreach]

All they would be doing is moving the Machado money they didn't spend.  We'll see, the mouth pieces are already saying we don't need Cole which tells me they won't make a real offer.

[SoxBlanco]

Stone and Merkin have stated multiple times recently that Cole is not likely. Seems like this was intentional because either...

A) We truly aren’t going hard after him and our front office wants to keep expectations in check. 

or...

B) We will make a push for him but our front office doesn’t want another Machado situation where there was such a let down because of the expectations. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

I’d love to know what about the White Sox history makes people think that they are going to hand out the largest contract ever to a pitcher...it’s really not even a discussion worth having. I’ll bet there won’t even be so much as a meeting 

[Chicago White Sox]

27 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

You get insurance on deals like that to hedge it.  He's going to command something near that.

I’m all for making a serious pursuit of Cole, but all insurance covers for is extensive time missed.  If Cole were to get injured and then never be the same or simply rapidly deteriorates with age, we’d be on the hook and totally fucked.  It’s a risk I think is worth taking, but a big risk nonetheless.

[pcq]

38 minutes ago, Tony said:

All of those teams, plus I’d throw some wild cards in there like the Rangers, Cubs, maybe even a team like the Twins. There are always 1-2 surprise teams that pop in. 

Cole has been SO good, people are going to get crazy with money (that’s just my prediction.)

I also don’t think the Astros are going to be real players, I think then acquiring Greinke was a semi-replacement for Cole.

Twins do not spend that kind of money. Not their m/o. More like Billy Beane shoppers. 

[Black_Jack29]

28 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

You get insurance on deals like that to hedge it.  He's going to command something near that.

My understanding is that insurance covers injuries, but not degraded performance. That's as big a worry as a major injury (and often follows one).

I don't see JR committing more than $150M to any single player, and even then it's going to have to have opt-outs that are favorable to the Sox (e.g., Albert Belle's contract). So I would be pretty shocked to see the Sox land Cole. I wish that weren't the case, but this is an organization that's never eclipsed a $69M deal. I'll believe it when I see it.

[pcq]

At what point do teams say nobody is worth $40M per year esp. a pitcher. I generally do not care about money issues but every year we go thru all of this money stuff. There must be other things to dwell on. 

[pcq]

2 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

My understanding is that insurance covers injuries, but not degraded performance. That's as big a worry as a major injury (and often follows one).

I don't see JR committing more than $150M to any single player, and even then it's going to have to have opt-outs that are favorable to the Sox (e.g., Albert Belle's contract). So I would be pretty shocked to see the Sox land Cole. I wish that weren't the case, but this is an organization that's never eclipsed a $69M deal. I'll believe it when I see it.

Insurance is a major cost of big contracts. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 minute ago, Black_Jack29 said:

I don't see JR committing more than $150M to any single player, and even then it's going to have to have opt-outs that are favorable to the Sox (e.g., Albert Belle's contract). So I would be pretty shocked to see the Sox land Cole. I wish that weren't the case, but this is an organization that's never eclipsed a $69M deal. I'll believe it when I see it.

I mean, they just offered an 8/$250M contract last contract.  The evidence is pretty concrete Jerry is willing to commit over $150M to a single player.  The real question is he willing to step outside his comfort zone risk-wise and actually pay market for said player.  We lost out on Machado because Jerry was afraid to pay a potentially unproductive Machado $30M/per in years 9 & 10 of said deal and demanded options, not because of the lucrativeness of the first eight years of the offer.

[Black_Jack29]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I mean, they just offered an 8/$250M contract last contract.  The evidence is pretty concrete Jerry is willing to commit over $150M to a single player.  The real question is he willing to step outside his comfort zone risk-wise and actually pay market for said player.  We lost out on Machado because Jerry was afraid to pay a potentially unproductive Machado $30M/per in years 9 & 10 of said deal and demanded options, not because of the lucrativeness of the first eight years of the offer.

Do you have evidence that they actually offered that contract? Or are you relying on a "source" for that information? What makes you think that the Sox front office wouldn't leak a lie about a contract offer to improve their standing with their fan base, or that Machado's agent wouldn't leak a lie about an offer to improve his client's negotiating position?

Edited October 11, 2019 by Black_Jack29

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

5 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Do you have evidence that they actually offered that contract? Or are you relying on a "source" for that information? What makes you think that the Sox front office wouldn't leak a lie about a contract offer to improve their standing with their fan base, or that Machado's agent wouldn't leak a lie about an offer to improve his client's negotiating position?

A front office isnt leaking a fake peak offer when an agent and player knows the truth.

Players talk. Agents talk. This isnt a home game of "Bullshit." 

Edited October 11, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Chicago White Sox]

3 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Do you have evidence that they actually offered that contract? Or are you relying on a "source" for that information? What makes you think that the Sox front office wouldn't leak a lie about a contract offer to improve their standing with their fan base, or that Machado's agent wouldn't leak a lie about an offer to improve his clients negotiating position?

Are you actually suggesting the 8/$250M offer with vesting options for years 9 & 10 based on plate appearances and other incentives that could have pushed it up to $350M in total value is a lie that both baseball insiders and our front office have conjured up to “improve their standing their fan base”?

[Black_Jack29]

Just now, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

A front office isnt leaking a fake peak offer when an agent knows the truth.

If the fake offer improves the client's negotiating position, the agent will happily keep quiet and let another team out-bid it.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, Black_Jack29 said:

If the fake offer improves the client's negotiating position, the agent will happily keep quiet and let another team out-bid it.

This was released after Manny signed with the padres.

The fastest way to lose all credibility in a business world with revenues in the billions is to lie about contracts and compensation. The sox weren't releasing a fake final offer.

[Black_Jack29]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Are you actually suggesting the 8/$250M offer with vesting options for years 9 & 10 based on plate appearances and other incentives that could have pushed it up to $350M in total value is a lie that both baseball insiders and our front office have conjured up to “improve their standing their fan base”?

I'm saying that the Sox front office has every incentive to mislead its fan base by pretending to pursue marquee free agents. The Alonso/Jay signings show how low they'll stoop to achieve this, so I don't see how leaking a fake offer is that much of a stretch.

There's no way to confirm any of this stuff because none of it's written down or recorded in any other way. It's not like making an offer to buy a house, where there's a dollar amount and signatures on a legal document.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

3 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

I'm saying that the Sox front office has every incentive to mislead its fan base by pretending to pursue marquee free agents. The Alonso/Jay signings show how low they'll stoop to achieve this, so I don't see how leaking a fake offer is that much of a stretch.

There's no way to confirm any of this stuff because none of it's written down or recorded in any other way. It's not like making an offer to buy a house, where there's a dollar amount and signatures on a legal document.

You may think the White Sox are a Mickey mouse enterprise when compared to other big league franchises, but businessman/lawyer jerry reinsdorf isn't lying about a contract offer to an employee in a market in which agents and employees talk to everyone.

Jerry would openly lowball you to suppress the market way before he'd lie about a final contract offer.

[Black_Jack29]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

This was released after Manny signed with the padres.

The fastest way to lose all credibility in a business world with revenues in the billions is to lie about contracts and compensation. The sox weren't releasing a fake final offer.

Not sure I agree with that, but the Sox could've very well made that offer after the Padres made their offer with more guaranteed money, knowing that Machado wouldn't have accepted it. This is why I tend to believe that the Sox actually made the initially reported $175M offer or whatever it was. Because it was a lowball offer that Machado likely laughed at.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Not sure I agree with that, but the Sox could've very well made that offer after the Padres made their offer with more guaranteed money, knowing that Machado wouldn't have accepted it. This is why I tend to believe that the Sox actually made the initially reported $175M offer or whatever it was. Because it was a lowball offer that Machado likely laughed at.

Releasing a low ball offer to suppress a market in negotiations is a classic strategy - business 101. 

Making a "fake" 350 million dollar offer with the assumption it'll be rejected is the opposite of business 101. No one makes a 350 million dollar risk to "gain support from fans."

Edited October 11, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Black_Jack29]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You may think the White Sox are a Mickey mouse enterprise when compared to other big league franchises, but businessman/lawyer jerry reinsdorf isn't lying about a contract offer to an employee in a market in which agents and employees talk to everyone.

Jerry would openly lowball you to suppress the market way before he'd lie about a final contract offer.

Given that contract negotiations are confidential and between GMs and agents, there's all sorts of opportunity for lies and misinformation.

[Black_Jack29]

1 minute ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Releasing a low ball offer to suppress a market of a negotiating strategy - business 101. 

Making a "fake" 350 million dollar offer with the assumption it'll be rejected is the opposite of business 101. No one makes a 350 million dollar risk to "gain support from fans."

Debasing your franchise by cynically signing the targeted player's buddy and brother-in-law is also the opposite of business 101, so the Sox are clearly not playing by your rules.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

?????

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, Black_Jack29 said:

Debasing your franchise by cynically signing the targeted player's buddy and brother-in-law is also the opposite of business 101, so the Sox are clearly not playing by your rules.

It was actually a creative non quantifiable way of drawing a talent. I don't agree with it but it was creative; I'll give them that l.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! said:

?????

 

Agree 100% with stone .

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

5 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Agree 100% with stone .

Not signing the best pitcher on the planet because it “might be risky” in several years is a losing mentality