A Realistic Offseason

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

He's the kind of guy we might have considered taking on in 2018/2019 if someone sent along an actually valuable prospect to go with him. (that 1b who was not even in their top 5 in 2018, Peter Alonso, would have worked well). 

 The Sox will take  Cespedes ,Nimmo and their #1 prospect Ronny Mauricio and Met's don't have to pay any part of Cespedes salary . Would that work ? Basically $30M and Nimmo's salary of our payroll space for 2020 and beyond that just Nimmo's salary .

Edited October 14, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

On 10/12/2019 at 3:00 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Let me preface this by saying I think you are one of the best posters on this website. You seem to be thinking Boston is a good trade partner because they are cap conscious. I even understand liking JBJ. I wanted him when he was much younger and for 1 year he would be great. My problem is why do u keep wanting to trade away assets for 1 year players ? It's not the time . The Sox are rising there is still much the Sox have to wait on.

Will Moncada maintain , fall, or get even better? Same with Anderson

Will Eloy become our version of JDM ?

How fast will Lopez ,Cease, Kopech .Dunning become good or will they at all ?

Is Gio a legit top of the rotation guy ?

Can Collins become  the LH power/OBP bat and be a good enough catcher to stick ?

Can some of the minor league OF's show enough growth to be counted on for future use ?

Will Vaughn rise quickly ? He would have to show a lot in AA this year to even consider him next year and AA is typically not a good place for our talent to take a step forward.

How long will Abreu be here and for how much money ? Will he be the primary DH ? Is Eloy the future DH ?

Will a guy like Mercedes even get a chance to prove he can be a legit hitter in the majors. Basically he's the only non top draft pick I'd want to see since guys like Sanchez, Leury and Engel Palka Cordell etc have been given chances.

 I'd really like to see DH handled internally given that we will probably still have Abreu . I really wonder if the Sox have shopped him around at all or are all the rumors about him being here to stay really true.

In my mind still way to many questions than answers in the lineup but more so among the starting pitching.

That's why getting starting pitching is so important . If the young starting pitching can improve quickly maybe anyone we pick up as a FA can be traded for assets instead of dealing from our quickly diminishing minor league talent now. Make pitching the priority and deal with position players afterwards. I'm much more optimistic about the hitting getting better and having Robert and Madrigal in the lineup than I am with pitchers finding command . There are just too many of them that will need time.

If the Sox can get some good FA starting pitching I'd feel much more comfortable making trades.

Yeah i need to backtrack.

The offseason in which we acquire JBJ is not my first choice or second or etc, but there are many cases in which I think he's just a pretty decent placeholder with some upside in RF.

The main thing for me is  that a flip has switched. I am no longer interested in offering development space at the mlb level for the 2020 squad for many of the players you mentioned. I am willing to bring in value just for the 2020 team, even if it isn't long-term. 

We now have the core and only so many years left. I don't want another year with so many wide ranges of outcomes in so many positions. Also - people had discussed signing JBJ if non-tendered, so my assumption is that he would be a very affordable Nova-esque trade.

But 2020 matters to me, I'm willing to take targeted risks on flexibility in 2023 or 2024 by trading prospects now if it means big improvements to 2020.

My preferred 2020 plan though is to go hard on this pitching class and ideally getting one really good pitcher. And if not, getting some plus plus bats. That's why I don't mind the Rendon stuff. We aren't going to be worse off with a 1.000 ops bat, and I don't care if we are being financially inefficient to do so.

[TheFutureIsNear]

1 hour ago, mqr said:

They Red Sox for sure would like him to. I haven't seen anything from JDs side

Ya but now imagine how that conversation would go...

-Option 1= opt out and you get to choose where you play next

-Option 2= opt in and we’ll choose your team by trading you for the best deal 

 

I think he’ll choose option 1. Not to mention, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll get paid more in free agency 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yeah i need to backtrack.

The offseason in which we acquire JBJ is not my first choice or second or etc, but there are many cases in which I think he's just a pretty decent placeholder with some upside in RF.

The main thing for me is  that a flip has switched. I am no longer interested in offering development space at the mlb level for the 2020 squad for many of the players you mentioned. I am willing to bring in value just for the 2020 team, even if it isn't long-term. 

We now have the core and only so many years left. I don't want another year with so many wide ranges of outcomes in so many positions. Also - people had discussed signing JBJ if non-tendered, so my assumption is that he would be a very affordable Nova-esque trade.

But 2020 matters to me, I'm willing to take targeted risks on flexibility in 2023 or 2024 by trading prospects now if it means big improvements to 2020.

My preferred 2020 plan though is to go hard on this pitching class and ideally getting one really good pitcher. And if not, getting some plus plus bats. That's why I don't mind the Rendon stuff. We aren't going to be worse off with a 1.000 ops bat, and I don't care if we are being financially inefficient to do so.

I just don't think it's a choice about offering developmental time in 2020. It's a fact injuries set the rebuild back but it will still be the 4th year of the rebuild. I do understand wanting to maximize 2020  but it's just seems too big of a reach with so many young guys in the 1st year of success and most of the young pitchers not even that far along.

If the Sox decide they want to make the playoffs in 2020, I guess we will know that in the coming months by their successes in signing some high level free agents.

If they fail and get some guys but nothing in the top tier, especially pitching ,then it's wait for 2021 and maybe getting some of those questions answered in 2020.

Also I think you meant a switch has been flipped rather than a flip has switched .

Edited October 14, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I just don't think it's a choice about offering developmental time in 2020. It's a fact injuries set the rebuild back but it will still be the 4th year of the rebuild. I do understand wanting to maximize 2020  but it's just seems too big of a reach with so many young guys in the 1st year of success and most of the young pitchers not even that far along.

If the Sox decide they want to make the playoffs in 2020, I guess we will know that in the coming months by their successes in signing some high level free agents.

If they fail and get some guys but nothing in the top tier, especially pitching ,then it's wait for 2021 and maybe getting some of those questions answered in 2020.

Also I think you meant a switch has been flipped rather than a flip has switched .

lol yes.

With the exception of Betts, I don't feel like I have advised stretching them that far in terms of shelling out prospects. Betts is just that good to me and you risk it.

There are certainly trades that acquire a guy for only 1-2 years that I'd be willing to do now, whereas last year I would have wanted to wait. 

Joc Pederson is a good example from last year. I was supportive but conflicted with Bush, as we had just completely misevaluated a player that young.

This year it's no contest, I'd support getting Pederson* - especially since we do have the ability to re-sign players. We would be paying for the 2020 season, and I'm ok with that.

*and obviously the deal would change but there is a wide range of players i'd send out for a 2020 season with Joc + expectation we re-signed him.

 

[Balta1701]

14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I just don't think it's a choice about offering developmental time in 2020. It's a fact injuries set the rebuild back but it will still be the 4th year of the rebuild. I do understand wanting to maximize 2020  but it's just seems too big of a reach with so many young guys in the 1st year of success and most of the young pitchers not even that far along.

If the Sox decide they want to make the playoffs in 2020, I guess we will know that in the coming months by their successes in signing some high level free agents.

If they fail and get some guys but nothing in the top tier, especially pitching ,then it's wait for 2021 and maybe getting some of those questions answered in 2020.

Also I think you meant a switch has been flipped rather than a flip has switched .

I want a roster that has 2 properties. 

1. It is able to compete "if a lot of stuff goes right". Because there's so many youngsters, that is entirely possible. If a couple of those young guys come out blazing, we could be in this race early, and the last thing we want is to have wasted 300 PAs on Yoenis Yonder Alonso Cespedes in the cleanup spot.

2. There is a clear plan for how they get better in the future; in other words, don't bump up completely against your long-term salary limit. If guys get hurt or struggle, there needs to be some funds left to replace them with at least decent players. If someone like Vaughn is traded away, we have to have a plan for how they're going to be replaced, including funds available to do so.

[ron883]

On 10/12/2019 at 3:00 PM, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Let me preface this by saying I think you are one of the best posters on this website. You seem to be thinking Boston is a good trade partner because they are cap conscious. I even understand liking JBJ. I wanted him when he was much younger and for 1 year he would be great. My problem is why do u keep wanting to trade away assets for 1 year players ? It's not the time . The Sox are rising there is still much the Sox have to wait on.

Will Moncada maintain , fall, or get even better? Same with Anderson

Will Eloy become our version of JDM ?

How fast will Lopez ,Cease, Kopech .Dunning become good or will they at all ?

Is Gio a legit top of the rotation guy ?

Can Collins become  the LH power/OBP bat and be a good enough catcher to stick ?

Can some of the minor league OF's show enough growth to be counted on for future use ?

Will Vaughn rise quickly ? He would have to show a lot in AA this year to even consider him next year and AA is typically not a good place for our talent to take a step forward.

How long will Abreu be here and for how much money ? Will he be the primary DH ? Is Eloy the future DH ?

Will a guy like Mercedes even get a chance to prove he can be a legit hitter in the majors. Basically he's the only non top draft pick I'd want to see since guys like Sanchez, Leury and Engel Palka Cordell etc have been given chances.

 I'd really like to see DH handled internally given that we will probably still have Abreu . I really wonder if the Sox have shopped him around at all or are all the rumors about him being here to stay really true.

In my mind still way to many questions than answers in the lineup but more so among the starting pitching.

That's why getting starting pitching is so important . If the young starting pitching can improve quickly maybe anyone we pick up as a FA can be traded for assets instead of dealing from our quickly diminishing minor league talent now. Make pitching the priority and deal with position players afterwards. I'm much more optimistic about the hitting getting better and having Robert and Madrigal in the lineup than I am with pitchers finding command . There are just too many of them that will need time.

If the Sox can get some good FA starting pitching I'd feel much more comfortable making trades.

Funny, I don't recall you ever saying this to me. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I want a roster that has 2 properties. 

1. It is able to compete "if a lot of stuff goes right". Because there's so many youngsters, that is entirely possible. If a couple of those young guys come out blazing, we could be in this race early, and the last thing we want is to have wasted 300 PAs on Yoenis Yonder Alonso Cespedes in the cleanup spot.

2. There is a clear plan for how they get better in the future; in other words, don't bump up completely against your long-term salary limit. If guys get hurt or struggle, there needs to be some funds left to replace them with at least decent players. If someone like Vaughn is traded away, we have to have a plan for how they're going to be replaced, including funds available to do so.

Sounds about right to me.

[BackDoorBreach]

14 minutes ago, bmags said:

lol yes.

With the exception of Betts, I don't feel like I have advised stretching them that far in terms of shelling out prospects. Betts is just that good to me and you risk it.

There are certainly trades that acquire a guy for only 1-2 years that I'd be willing to do now, whereas last year I would have wanted to wait. 

Joc Pederson is a good example from last year. I was supportive but conflicted with Bush, as we had just completely misevaluated a player that young.

This year it's no contest, I'd support getting Pederson* - especially since we do have the ability to re-sign players. We would be paying for the 2020 season, and I'm ok with that.

*and obviously the deal would change but there is a wide range of players i'd send out for a 2020 season with Joc + expectation we re-signed him.

 

I'd really hope they check in on Joc again.  That would solve 2 big issues and I don't think he would be that hard to extend.  I don't know what the Doyers would be asking for though obviously.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

38 minutes ago, bmags said:

lol yes.

With the exception of Betts, I don't feel like I have advised stretching them that far in terms of shelling out prospects. Betts is just that good to me and you risk it.

There are certainly trades that acquire a guy for only 1-2 years that I'd be willing to do now, whereas last year I would have wanted to wait. 

Joc Pederson is a good example from last year. I was supportive but conflicted with Bush, as we had just completely misevaluated a player that young.

This year it's no contest, I'd support getting Pederson* - especially since we do have the ability to re-sign players. We would be paying for the 2020 season, and I'm ok with that.

*and obviously the deal would change but there is a wide range of players i'd send out for a 2020 season with Joc + expectation we re-signed him.

 

 

22 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I'd really hope they check in on Joc again.  That would solve 2 big issues and I don't think he would be that hard to extend.  I don't know what the Doyers would be asking for though obviously.

I guess I just have fundamental differences on how to build a team from this point forward with you guys. Bmags, we think alike on most everything else except the trading for  1 year players with expectations of resigning them. It's just way too risky especially giving up the few valuable pieces left in the system. Mainly because so may current pieces have not established themselves, it's a huge risk knowing that in order to win guys like Kopech , Cease and Lopez really must improve in a hurry while also hoping guys like Moncada and Anderson just didn't have career years in 2019,

Is getting 1 player in RF so important that you risk killing off the whole rebuild when you can't resign them and you're left with  a bottom 5 minor league system while also knowing the Sox treat IFA with feigned interest at best ?

Is the difference between say Corey Dickerson and Betts/Pederson really so vast that  the risk is worth taking ?

Edited October 14, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Balta1701]

7 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

I guess I just have fundamental differences on how to build a team from this point forward with you guys. Bmags, we think alike on most everything else except the trading for  1 year players with expectations of resigning them. It's just way too risky especially giving up the few valuable pieces left in the system. Mainly because so may current pieces have not established themselves, it's a huge risk knowing that in order to win guys like Kopech , Cease and Lopez really must improve in a hurry while also hoping guys like Moncada and Anderson just didn't have career years in 2019,

Is getting 1 player in RF so important that you risk killing off the whole rebuild when you can't resign them and you're left with  a bottom 5 minor league system while also knowing the Sox treat IFA with feigned interest at best ?

Is the difference between say Corey Dickerson and Betts/Pederson really so vast that  the risk is worth taking ?

Joc should not cost as much as Betts. He's a 2-3 win player with 1 year remaining on his deal and a decent salary from arbitration. Betts is vastly better.

I know we're terrible at trading guys for veterans, but I'm more open to trading guys outside our top 7-8, and Joc does not deserve any of our top 7-ish guys.

[bmags]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

 

I guess I just have fundamental differences on how to build a team from this point forward with you guys. Bmags, we think alike on most everything else except the trading for  1 year players with expectations of resigning them. It's just way too risky especially giving up the few valuable pieces left in the system. Mainly because so may current pieces have not established themselves, it's a huge risk knowing that in order to win guys like Kopech , Cease and Lopez really must improve in a hurry while also hoping guys like Moncada and Anderson just didn't have career years in 2019,

Is getting 1 player in RF so important that you risk killing off the whole rebuild when you can't resign them and you're left with  a bottom 5 minor league system while also knowing the Sox treat IFA with feigned interest at best ?

Well I disagree that acquiring a RF such as JBJ is killing off the whole rebuild.

 But I do want to plant that the value of the prospect depth we have in birmingham will not stay constant. It is very likely some will underperform for a second year in a row, cratering their value. And some - like sheets perhaps - may recover. 

There is no easy answer here when the minor league development/drafting hasn't supplied any depth outside of 1st round picks. Keeping everything for depth may not provide that much more flexibility if they fade away, and you also lose time.

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Joc should not cost as much as Betts. He's a 2-3 win player with 1 year remaining on his deal and a decent salary from arbitration. Betts is vastly better.

I know we're terrible at trading guys for veterans, but I'm more open to trading guys outside our top 7-8, and Joc does not deserve any of our top 7-ish guys.

Yes - this is important. Though I don't know where you place Stiever.

edit: I'd be willing to trade an top 5 prospect for Betts and I know others would not.

But for Pederson on down it's "if the deal is right". And yes, I do think Pederson is an upgrade enough over dickerson it's worth pursuing.

But beyond that...it's always hard to have the conversation without really having an idea of what the deal parameters are. There are some guys I'm attached to and others I'm not, and who knows whether other mlb GMs have same preferences.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yes - this is important. Though I don't know where you place Stiever.

He's a guy I'm willing to trade but not sure whether I like him for Joc. I guess maybe I can talk myself into it?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

9 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Joc should not cost as much as Betts. He's a 2-3 win player with 1 year remaining on his deal and a decent salary from arbitration. Betts is vastly better.

I know we're terrible at trading guys for veterans, but I'm more open to trading guys outside our top 7-8, and Joc does not deserve any of our top 7-ish guys.

I know but the premise is the same trading for a 1 year player and giving up assets for him when you can get Brett Gardner . I know I used Dickerson before but I know he hasn't played right field at all .

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know but the premise is the same trading for a 1 year player and giving up assets for him when you can get Brett Gardner . I know I used Dickerson before but I know he hasn't played right field at all .

Depends on the asset. Right now I'm hoping the White Sox have 3 big leaguers left in their minors - Robert, Vaughn, and Madrigal, and I don't have a lot of confidence elsewhere. Everyone else is very far away or busted. I'll at least listen on anyone else if the return is right. 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

16 minutes ago, bmags said:

Well I disagree that acquiring a RF such as JBJ is killing off the whole rebuild.

 But I do want to plant that the value of the prospect depth we have in birmingham will not stay constant. It is very likely some will underperform for a second year in a row, cratering their value. And some - like sheets perhaps - may recover. 

There is no easy answer here when the minor league development/drafting hasn't supplied any depth outside of 1st round picks. Keeping everything for depth may not provide that much more flexibility if they fade away, and you also lose time.

I never said JBJ would kill off the rebuild. In a previous post with you I said he would be great. But maybe he will be a non tender and if so he' goes straight to the top of the list for who I want.

[bmags]

6 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I know but the premise is the same trading for a 1 year player and giving up assets for him when you can get Brett Gardner . I know I used Dickerson before but I know he hasn't played right field at all .

I like Gardner. I don't know, I can't make these in a vacuum. Better to position my thoughts as things I'm not against.

There are quite a few options I'd like, but getting a Pederson is a player that could also serve as a long term asset relatively quickly so that's the attractiveness. We don't know if maybe someone else acquires Joc and extends him. So it is Joc + more certainty to acquire Joc next year vs. Gardner + flexibility again next year.

I'm pretty skeptical of Ozuna and Castellanos I liked for a while but I always thought he'd be good as a 1b/DH. Pretty clear he'd have suitors for RF and perhaps some inflation due to his late cubs run. 

So in those cases its trade for Joc > pay prices for Ozuna/Castellanos.

But Gardner is a good choice, I'd like it.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

Depends on the asset. Right now I'm hoping the White Sox have 3 big leaguers left in their minors - Robert, Vaughn, and Madrigal, and I don't have a lot of confidence elsewhere. Everyone else is very far away or busted. I'll at least listen on anyone else if the return is right. 

Well that's the thing . You have to have some degree of patience with prospects. We all bemoan trading away Tatis Jr. and then turn around and say everyone else is a bust . Some will fail some will succeed. So we trade away guys now you think are busts but who project to be decent 2 way players like Basabe , Rutherford, Walker ,Gonzales among our OF's. They have to be given more time because if you think they are busts then we aren't getting much for them anyway and will have to trade the guys like Collins, Lopez, Cease, Dunning, Vaughn , Stiever, Madrigal or even Robert. I sure don't want to trade Robert or any of them really. At least not until I see some good free agents signed.

[BackDoorBreach]

54 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Well that's the thing . You have to have some degree of patience with prospects. We all bemoan trading away Tatis Jr. and then turn around and say everyone else is a bust . Some will fail some will succeed. So we trade away guys now you think are busts but who project to be decent 2 way players like Basabe , Rutherford, Walker ,Gonzales among our OF's. They have to be given more time because if you think they are busts then we aren't getting much for them anyway and will have to trade the guys like Collins, Lopez, Cease, Dunning, Vaughn , Stiever, Madrigal or even Robert. I sure don't want to trade Robert or any of them really. At least not until I see some good free agents signed.

We have a plethora of youngish OF's.  Robert and Eloy are here to stay so I don't mind trading away any of the ones we have in the minors for an upgrade now.  Im not huge on handedness when their are better players available tbh but guys like Dickerson do absolutely nothing for me as a starting RF. I just think if you can get Pederson for anybody not named Vaughn or Steiver that will be in the minors next year you do it.  

[poppysox]

52 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

We have a plethora of youngish OF's.  Robert and Eloy are here to stay so I don't mind trading away any of the ones we have in the minors for an upgrade now.  Im not huge on handedness when their are better players available tbh but guys like Dickerson do absolutely nothing for me as a starting RF. I just think if you can get Pederson for anybody not named Vaughn or Steiver that will be in the minors next year you do it.  

My choice would be Pederson if the cost is modest...otherwise Gardner is fine.  

[oldsox]

If LA signs Cole, they will hopefully be willing to shed guys like Joc.

[caulfield12]

5 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Well that's the thing . You have to have some degree of patience with prospects. We all bemoan trading away Tatis Jr. and then turn around and say everyone else is a bust . Some will fail some will succeed. So we trade away guys now you think are busts but who project to be decent 2 way players like Basabe , Rutherford, Walker ,Gonzales among our OF's. They have to be given more time because if you think they are busts then we aren't getting much for them anyway and will have to trade the guys like Collins, Lopez, Cease, Dunning, Vaughn , Stiever, Madrigal or even Robert. I sure don't want to trade Robert or any of them really. At least not until I see some good free agents signed.

Adolfo STILL has the most potential based on ability...but the likelihood right now has to be pretty small of hitting that ceiling.

Walker and Rutherford feel more like 4th/5th outfielder types, but maybe the juiced ball makes 20-25ish home run hitters (like a Benintendi, for a comp in terms of power) more tolerable.

[SoxAce]

Adjust your White Sox free-agent wish list? Gerrit Cole's teammates predict he'll land in California

[SonofaRoache]

5 hours ago, SoxAce said:

Adjust your White Sox free-agent wish list? Gerrit Cole's teammates predict he'll land in California

We shall see if money trumps preference in this case. It's also interesting that his teammates are talking so openly about him wanting to play in Oakland because of his success there. You'd think they'd keep his preferences under wraps out of respect. Unless he asked them to do this to test his market early and give other teams a chance to pay up or find other solutions.