A Realistic Offseason

[mqr]

Just now, SoxBlanco said:

Yeah, we're basically on the same page. I guess the real question in terms of what you had an issue with would be this:  What would you think our record would be with this roster next year:

 Lineup:

1. Robert CF

2. Moncada 3B

3. Eloy LF

4. Abreu 1B

5. Collins DH

6. Anderson SS

7. McCann C

8. Leury RF

9. Madrigal 2B

Rotation:

1. Giolito

2. Kopech

3. Cease

4. Lopez

5. Nova

Bullpen is the same as last year.

I think that's a ~.500 team if healthy, but....

[steveno89]

2 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Yeah, we're basically on the same page. I guess the real question in terms of what you had an issue with would be this:  What would you think our record would be with this roster next year:

Lineup:

1. Robert CF

2. Moncada 3B

3. Eloy LF

4. Abreu 1B

5. Collins DH

6. Anderson SS

7. McCann C

8. Leury RF

9. Madrigal 2B

Rotation:

1. Giolito

2. Kopech

3. Cease

4. Lopez

5. Nova

Bullpen is the same as last year.

If healthy that is a 75-80 win team, no better

Collins absolutely cannot be relied upon as starting DH, nor can we rely on Leury in RF or McCann to start at catcher. Unknown how Kopech will be back from TJS, and I doubt we keep Nova for nearly $10 million. 

[SoxBlanco]

1 minute ago, steveno89 said:

If healthy that is a 75-80 win team, no better

Collins absolutely cannot be relied upon as starting DH, nor can we rely on Leury in RF or McCann to start at catcher. Unknown how Kopech will be back from TJS, and I doubt we keep Nova for nearly $10 million. 

It was a hypothetical situation. Nobody wants to rely on those guys in those spots, and nobody thinks we are keeping Nova for $10 million. There is no question that is not a playoff roster, but the debate was over how many wins that would produce.

[Balta1701]

26 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Yeah, we're basically on the same page. I guess the real question in terms of what you had an issue with would be this:  What would you think our record would be with this roster next year:

Lineup:

1. Robert CF

2. Moncada 3B

3. Eloy LF

4. Abreu 1B

5. Collins DH

6. Anderson SS

7. McCann C

8. Leury RF

9. Madrigal 2B

Rotation:

 1. Giolito

2. Kopech

 3. Cease

4. Lopez

5. Nova

Bullpen is the same as last year.

I think the lack of depth leaves them likely to be a few games under .500 because guys always get hurt and the team overplayed its projected record last year by a few games. 

Interesting that also comes out to a similar payroll to this year.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

30 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

McCann's second half splits were pretty brutal. It would be foolish to think he's anything more than a backup for a competitive team moving forward. 

If I could only make two free agent signing this offseason they would be a SP and Grandal all day

The anti-McCann nonsense is brutal on this board.

He's not a star but he's an average MLB catcher - that's fine. His defense is + and his bat was fine. 

If you removed the 3 best months of any players year and focused solely on his 2 worst months, almost every player will look worse. That's the nature of baseball. He had a 700 OPS in the 2nd half while hitting 226. Catchers in general are going to regress more than other players as the season goes on due to the immense amount of wear and tear. I dont think people understand how valuable a catcher can be to a pitcher - McCann seems to have that impact. Theres a reason career 200 hitters remain in the league for a decade as "personal catchers."

Worry about the actual holes on the team - not a guy who is average at his position who has an obviously positive impact on the arms he catches. Quantifying a catchers value is really difficult.

[Bob Sacamano]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The anti-McCann nonsense is brutal on this board.

He's not a star but he's an average MLB catcher - that's fine. His defense is + and his bat was fine. 

If you removed the 3 best months of any players year and focused solely on his 2 worst months, almost every player will look worse. That's the nature of baseball. He had a 700 OPS in the 2nd half while hitting 226. Catchers in general are going to regress more than other players as the season goes on due to the immense amount of wear and tear. I dont think people understand how valuable a catcher can be to a pitcher - McCann seems to have that impact. Theres a reason career 200 hitters remain in the league for a decade as "personal catchers."

Worry about the actual holes on the team - not a guy who is average at his position who has an obviously positive impact on the arms he catches. Quantifying a catchers value is really difficult.

Agreed 100%.

[SoxBlanco]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The anti-McCann nonsense is brutal on this board.

He's not a star but he's an average MLB catcher - that's fine. His defense is + and his bat was fine. 

If you removed the 3 best months of any players year and focused solely on his 2 worst months, almost every player will look worse. That's the nature of baseball. He had a 700 OPS in the 2nd half while hitting 226. Catchers in general are going to regress more than other players as the season goes on due to the immense amount of wear and tear. I dont think people understand how valuable a catcher can be to a pitcher - McCann seems to have that impact. Theres a reason career 200 hitters remain in the league for a decade as "personal catchers."

Worry about the actual holes on the team - not a guy who is average at his position who has an obviously positive impact on the arms he catches. Quantifying a catchers value is really difficult.

Fantastic post.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

You lost me at the bolded.  McCann isn't a FA, is coming of a 2.3 fWAR season and could be had for less than $5 million via arb.  There is a zero percent chance the Sox non-tender McCann. 

Yup, worst case scenario you trade McCann for something as he should a little bit of surplus value at that cost.

Also, that pitching plan would likely be disastrous.  I still don’t get all the Wheeler hate around here, but we need at least one starter with more certainty than the guys he listed.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

If you want to play that game - you don't get to just look at the 5th starter and the RF and say that those guys upgrade those positions. You're not replacing the RF with Robert, you're replacing Adam Engel, who was a .8 fWAR player. You're not replacing your DH with Madrigal, you're replacing your 1.0 fWAR Yolmer Sanchez. You're not replacing your 5th starter with Kopech - right now you're replacing Ivan Nova and his 2.0 fWAR with him. So, from your 70 win team, with the numbers you just quoted, you have added 2.4 fWAR. That does not make you a .500 team.

If you throw in improvement at several more positions - Eloy 2 extra fWAR Cease 2 extra fWAR, Lopez 2 extra fWAR - now you're approaching a possible .500 team, but that's also assuming no one (McCann, Abreu, Anderson) regresses from their 2019 seasons, which is also possible. 

That still leaves you a long way to go in free agency. 

To look at the math another way, we are at 23.3 fWAR in 2019. Minnesota was at 54.9. With some margin for error, you need to find 30 fWAR. You've added 2.4 from the list you just said. I will give you another 10 fWAR from guys on this roster - extremely optimistic but not impossible. You upgrade the DH spot, 5th starter, and RF to 2 win players - from the numbers above that's 11 additional fWAR counting the -5 fWAR noted above and 6 added by those players directly. That brings the White Sox to a healthy 46.7 fWAR. That is a solid, strong team, but if fWAR translated directly to records (which admittedly it doesn't) - you are 8 games behind the 2019 Twins. Furthermore, the AL Central has, for 50+ fWAR teams going back to the World series winning Royals, so you do need to load up. Cleveland will be back next year, and could be even stronger - they were demolished by injuries this year and their pitching staff has already found new blood.

There is more that can be found elsewhere. Moncada and Giolito could turn into Bregman and Cole. Cease could come out and do a Giolito. You can improve the bullpen. There are ways to get this team to 50 fWAR based on internal development. But this act that this team is somehow a guaranteed world series contender and the setup you just did to find 10 wins - doesn't work the way you want it to.

You’re assuming the Twins won’t regress despite numerous career years and a bunch of guys hitting free agency.  They should be good next year, but I would not bank on them repeating their 2019 performance.

[steveno89]

22 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

The anti-McCann nonsense is brutal on this board.

He's not a star but he's an average MLB catcher - that's fine. His defense is + and his bat was fine. 

If you removed the 3 best months of any players year and focused solely on his 2 worst months, almost every player will look worse. That's the nature of baseball. He had a 700 OPS in the 2nd half while hitting 226. Catchers in general are going to regress more than other players as the season goes on due to the immense amount of wear and tear. I dont think people understand how valuable a catcher can be to a pitcher - McCann seems to have that impact. Theres a reason career 200 hitters remain in the league for a decade as "personal catchers."

Worry about the actual holes on the team - not a guy who is average at his position who has an obviously positive impact on the arms he catches. Quantifying a catchers value is really difficult.

I do not hate McCann, let me start right off with that. 

Outside of the first half of 2019, at no point in his career has he even been an average player. We have every reason to question whether he can be anything more than a backup for us moving forward. His first half was propped up by a crazy .408 BABIP, something that he is unlikely to ever repeat. I get catcher wear and tear, but I believe there is far greater chance he reverts to being a .5 - 1 WAR at best player in 2020 than comes anywhere near repeating 2019. 

I like him as a backup, but am pounding the table for Grandal in free agency. I am sick of the club settling for mediocrity. Look at the rosters of the Nationals and Astros and tell me we are anywhere close to competing with teams like that in a series? 

Edited October 23, 2019 by steveno89

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You’re assuming the Twins won’t regress despite numerous career years and a bunch of guys hitting free agency.  They should be good next year, but I would not bank on them repeating their 2019 performance.

I never made that assumption anywhere. 

On paper I think the Indians are a better team than the Twins right now. That's a 42 fWAR team this year, and they were truly devastated by injuries - Kluber, Carrasco, Lindor, Ramirez. They also have a young OF that is starting to perform, they have a pitching staff that could be the envy of baseball next year, and assuming they let Kipnis's option go away, their salary issues aren't as severe as they were last year. Out of Cleveland and Minnesota - I'll wager you want this division you have to be well over 50 fWAR between them. Between them, one of those teams is going to be a force.

[turnin' two]

52 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

If healthy that is a 75-80 win team, no better

Collins absolutely cannot be relied upon as starting DH, nor can we rely on Leury in RF or McCann to start at catcher. Unknown how Kopech will be back from TJS, and I doubt we keep Nova for nearly $10 million. 

So they could win 80 but no chance they win 81?

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, BrianAnderson said:

More or less he had a career year in almost every category and those we're driven by the first half stats. His second half had a BA, OBP about 100 points less than the first half. His OPS was almost 200 points less in the second half. He's a pumpkin who had a crazy good half of one season. If you want to make the argument that he served as Giolito's personal catcher I can see that angle... but i dont think that's worth $5mm+. Giolito isn't going to have McCann around his whole career. So I'd cut bait now. 

Outside of a horrific July, his second half numbers weren’t that different than his first numbers with the exception of some much expected BABIP regression.  Yes, he had a career year and overall he probably overperformwd, but Statcast still believes he should have been a league average hitter and he actually made adjustments to that support his improvement.  While there is probably no rush to extend him, cutting bait right now is quite frankly insane at $5M.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, KennyPowers said:

If we are picking a stop gap for RF it would be wise to actually pick a RF. Just saying.

Wow - the love for Gardner is mind boggling.

 

 

Like who though?  I have no idea if Gardner’s arm would be suitable for RF, but there aren’t exactly a ton of options out there.

Regardless, I think this discussion is all for naught as I think it’s incredibly unlikely Gardner leaves the Yankees.

[steveno89]

3 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Like who though?  I have no idea if Gardner’s arm would be suitable for RF, but there aren’t exactly a ton of options out there.

Regardless, I think this discussion is all for naught as I think it’s incredibly unlikely Gardner leaves the Yankees.

Kole Calhoun would not be an awful stopgap option for 1-2 years. Could do worse and he plays solid defense. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

McCann's second half splits were pretty brutal. It would be foolish to think he's anything more than a backup for a competitive team moving forward. 

If I could only make two free agent signing this offseason they would be a SP and Grandal all day

Really? Have you seen the starting catchers for the two World Series teams?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

23 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I do not hate McCann, let me start right off with that. 

Outside of the first half of 2019, at no point in his career has he even been an average player. We have every reason to question whether he can be anything more than a backup for us moving forward. His first half was propped up by a crazy .408 BABIP, something that he is unlikely to ever repeat. I get catcher wear and tear, but I believe there is far greater chance he reverts to being a .5 - 1 WAR at best player in 2020 than comes anywhere near repeating 2019. 

I like him as a backup, but am pounding the table for Grandal in free agency. I am sick of the club settling for mediocrity. Look at the rosters of the Nationals and Astros and tell me we are anywhere close to competing with teams like that in a series? 

I'd argue that McCann is better for the pitching staff than Grandal. 

This team doesnt need an elite hitting catcher - that's what Robert, Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, Timmy and Madrigal are for. McCann should be fine hitting 8th or 9th in an MLB lineup. 

McCann clearly took strides with his game and bat last year - his approach was different and he was not the same player as he was years prior. His BABIP was inflated but he also just made better contact in general.

If he was a 1.5-2 WAR catcher hed be between 10-12 in baseball. Again, that is fine. 

The Nationals start Kurt Suzuki at catcher so I'm not sure what I'm looking at... mccann is every bit as good as Suzuki. The White Sox have holes to fill - I'd argue mccann doesnt rank in the top 5 of holes on this team. Hes the least of their concern imo.

Edited October 23, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Imo, Machado was the most overrated free agent player on this site last winter. This winter it is Grandal. Buyer beware.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'd argue that McCann is better for the pitching staff than Grandal. 

This team doesnt need an elite hitting catcher - that's what Robert, Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, Timmy and Madrigal are for. McCann should be fine hitting 8th or 9th in an MLB lineup. 

McCann clearly took strides with his game and bat last year - his approach was different and he was not the same player as he was years prior. His BABIP was inflated but he also just made better contact in general.

If he was a 1.5-2 WAR catcher hed be between 10-12 in baseball. Again, that is fine. 

The Nationals start Kurt Suzuki at catcher so I'm not sure what I'm looking at... mccann is every bit as good as Suzuki. The White Sox have holes to fill - I'd argue mccann doesnt rank in the top 5 of holes on this team. Hes the least of their concern imo.

And the dude starting for the Astros was traded for nothing TWICE THIS SEASON. The other Nationals catcher besides after thought Kurt Suzuki, Yan Gomes, has been very ordinary since 2015 and yet has been the “starting” catcher for playoff teams every year since 2016.

[steveno89]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'd argue that McCann is better for the pitching staff than Grandal. 

This team doesnt need an elite hitting catcher - that's what Robert, Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, Timmy and Madrigal are for. McCann should be fine hitting 8th or 9th in an MLB lineup. 

McCann clearly took strides with his game and bat last year - his approach was different and he was not the same player as he was years prior. His BABIP was inflated but he also just made better contact in general.

If he was a 1.5-2 WAR catcher hed be between 10-12 in baseball. Again, that is fine. 

The Nationals start Kurt Suzuki at catcher so I'm not sure what I'm looking at... mccann is every bit as good as Suzuki. The White Sox have holes to fill - I'd argue mccann doesnt rank in the top 5 of holes on this team. Hes the least of their concern imo.

Grandal is a better defensive catcher than McCann by a considerable amount. 

2019 his BABIP for the season was .359 vs. a career .311. His approach is not a whole lot different than his 2017 Tigers stats in terms of BB%, but his L% increased to 28.8% in 2019. Regress his BABIP to his career average and you're talking about a 0.5 WAR backup catcher, not a starter on a team looking to go anywhere. For reference Grandal played in 153 games and put up 5.2 WAR per fangraphs...huge difference. 

[steveno89]

3 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

And the dude starting for the Astros was traded for nothing TWICE THIS SEASON. The other Nationals catcher besides after thought Kurt Suzuki, Yan Gomes, has been very ordinary since 2015 and yet has been the “starting” catcher for playoff teams every year since 2016.

The Astros lineup is flat out loaded at every other position, as are the Nationals. Closing our eyes and crossing our fingers that McCann continues to overachieve is wishful thinking. He's a solid backup, but we can and should be all over Grandal. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

5 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

The Astros lineup is flat out loaded at every other position, as are the Nationals. Closing our eyes and crossing our fingers that McCann continues to overachieve is wishful thinking. He's a solid backup, but we can and should be all over Grandal. 

You said, “It would be foolish to think he's anything more than a backup for a competitive team moving forward.” McCann is as good or better than the catchers starting for the two World Series teams so clearly your statement is incorrect.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

38 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I never made that assumption anywhere. 

On paper I think the Indians are a better team than the Twins right now. That's a 42 fWAR team this year, and they were truly devastated by injuries - Kluber, Carrasco, Lindor, Ramirez. They also have a young OF that is starting to perform, they have a pitching staff that could be the envy of baseball next year, and assuming they let Kipnis's option go away, their salary issues aren't as severe as they were last year. Out of Cleveland and Minnesota - I'll wager you want this division you have to be well over 50 fWAR between them. Between them, one of those teams is going to be a force.

How is the Indians pitching staff going to be the envy of baseball? Kluber will never be the same, and carrasco isnt getting younger and is coming off cancer. 

[TheFutureIsNear]

I’m still trying to figure out how/why McCann gets credit for how he handled the pitching staff so well...is it all because Giolito took a couple steps forward (to where he was always supposed to be)? Because I don’t see a single other player on the staff that made any kind of improvements or developments to give the catcher credit either way, good or bad

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

10 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Grandal is a better defensive catcher than McCann by a considerable amount. 

2019 his BABIP for the season was .359 vs. a career .311. His approach is not a whole lot different than his 2017 Tigers stats in terms of BB%, but his L% increased to 28.8% in 2019. Regress his BABIP to his career average and you're talking about a 0.5 WAR backup catcher, not a starter on a team looking to go anywhere. For reference Grandal played in 153 games and put up 5.2 WAR per fangraphs...huge difference. 

Grandal is not a better defensive catcher than McCann.

I've said this before but there are some verly unflattering non-public numbers on Grandals defense. The dodgers wanted nothing to do with him in the playoffs when he was there and then they let him walk because of the defensive woes and liability on pitchers.

Evaluating catchers defense is very difficult. Pitchers love throwing to McCann - all arms in detroit said that (Price and Verlander loved him) - and they seem to dislike throwing to grandal. That means a lot and is probably significantly more valuable than how many guys you catch stealing and etc.