A Realistic Offseason

[ChiSox59]

Just now, cjgalloway said:

loll.. so who DHs the 100 games when he is catching? McCann?  Collins?  The whole, "lets carry 3 catchers so they can alternate at DH" is a complete and utter joke when 2 of those can't hit.. 

This really isn't that complicated.  Not exact numbers here, but something like this could definitely work. 

Abreu: 1B (100 games), DH (50 games)

Grandal: C (90 games), 1B (30 games), DH (30 games)

McCann: C (50 games), DH (30 games)

Collins: C (20 games), DH (40 games), 1B (20 games)

Basically Abreu is your 1B and occasional DH.  Grandal catches against RHP, DHs or 1B against LHP.  McCann catches Gio and gets a few DH starts against LHP.  Sprike Collins in at catcher, CH and 1B against righties.  

Obviously other guys can DH occasionally too.  

[TheFutureIsNear]

9 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He was 8th in baseball in rCERA, meaning despite having a bad pitching staff, they outperformed their season end numbers when he caught in relation to Castillo.

rCERA is likely the best publically available metric for evaluating a receivers impact on his team.

Grandal ranked 47th of 49 qualified catchers in rCERA. He is simply a poor receiver and game caller.

I’m not going to pretend to know what that rCERA is or what it does...but if it’s comparing McCann to Castillo...well no shit McCann is better. I hope that’s not the barometer we are going for in catcher defense. 
 

I’m not saying saying McCann is bad defensively, I just don’t see any tangible evidence that would make me think we can’t lose McCann’s presence at C. If Cease looked good and Lopez took a step forward I could see the point, but just Giolito improving isn’t enough reason for me to be content with a guy that can potentially be a black hole in the lineup.

But with that said, there’s no reason not to bring back McCann at his cheap price next year 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I’m not going to pretend to know what that rCERA is or what it does...but if it’s comparing McCann to Castillo...well no shit McCann is better. I hope that’s not the barometer we are going for in catcher defense. 
 

I’m not saying saying McCann is bad defensively, I just don’t see any tangible evidence that would make me think we can’t lose McCann’s presence at C. If Cease looked good and Lopez took a step forward I could see the point, but just Giolito improving isn’t enough reason for me to be content with a guy that can potentially be a black hole in the lineup.

But with that said, there’s no reason not to bring back McCann at his cheap price next year 

We certainly could manage without McCann, but after the years they just spent putting below average catchers with our pitchers I'd rather they not roll the dice.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

14 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I’m not going to pretend to know what that rCERA is or what it does...but if it’s comparing McCann to Castillo...well no shit McCann is better. I hope that’s not the barometer we are going for in catcher defense. 
 

I’m not saying saying McCann is bad defensively, I just don’t see any tangible evidence that would make me think we can’t lose McCann’s presence at C. If Cease looked good and Lopez took a step forward I could see the point, but just Giolito improving isn’t enough reason for me to be content with a guy that can potentially be a black hole in the lineup.

But with that said, there’s no reason not to bring back McCann at his cheap price next year 

In simplistic terms - its runs created by a catcher as a receiver towards his pitchers success.

[he gone.]

11 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

No, they don't. You said he had never had a stretch similar - I merely pointed out that was incorrect. 

I am not the one judging McCann based on his poor two months - you are.

Why would they replace mccan with a guy who can't catch? I'd bat an eye at the sox giving up a league average catcher who only costs 5 million dollars. Yes, I would.

 

Saying that you only judge a player by his whole season numbers in one sentence, and then having the following sentence extrapolate a 2 month subset from 2017 to support your case in fact totally contradicts. 

McCann is neither the problem or solution. I really don't care what the Sox do with him. Give him arb at $5mm and trade him or just cut bait -- doesn't really matter to me. Hell keep him. If they keep him so be it. But he's not your catcher when we are playing game 1 of the ALDS in 2021 or 2022. We're not making any WC next year so if we don't sign Grandal let's see what we have at AAA. 

This whole thread has digressed to McCann who in the grand scheme of things has ZERO to do with the future of the sox winning a WS. 

Pitching is king and until the Sox man up and sign a Cole or Strasburg this offseason or trade for one next offseason it's all moot. This team will never contend for a WS until we have 2-3 TOR starters. As i see it we have 2 at best in house, so must go get that third. That should be the real discussion. Not career backup catchers and their future as a backup. 

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He was 4th ranked in bWAR too. Given the volatility of defensive metrics, you're best off taking positional players WAR averages between b and f.

It is worth noting that last year, people swore up and down that the only rating for catchers you should take into account was WARP - the Baseball Prospectus version - because it weights framing in a much stronger and more appropriate way than either fangraphs or B-R. 

WARP hated McCann's defense and framing, basically putting him down at the bottom of the league in fielding and a slight step upwards from Castillo and Narvaez. Because his fielding came out so bad, they had him being a 1 - WARP catcher, with at least a dozen guys better than him (I start getting to guys that I don't know whether they're a catcher or not).

B-P adores Grandal and thinks his catching makes him one of the best players in baseball. 

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It is worth noting that last year, people swore up and down that the only rating for catchers you should take into account was WARP - the Baseball Prospectus version - because it weights framing in a much stronger and more appropriate way than either fangraphs or B-R. 

WARP hated McCann's defense and framing, basically putting him down at the bottom of the league in fielding and a slight step upwards from Castillo and Narvaez. Because his fielding came out so bad, they had him being a 1 - WARP catcher, with at least a dozen guys better than him (I start getting to guys that I don't know whether they're a catcher or not).

B-P adores Grandal and thinks his catching makes him one of the best players in baseball. 

WARP is good but it misses game calling and management and its clear that McCann was very good there. He also had very few PB despite catching white sox pitchers. Catchers are hard but overall I think the sequencing he would come up with for Giolito, especially, and the game planning disciplining he instilled with the pitchers is why you can value the numbers that take game calling into account. Ideally his framing would lineup, but there is greater concentration with framing among pitchers now anyway, as well as so much fewer SBAs that I think it's good to keep McCann around (in addition, he won't be that expensive)

[he gone.]

So we can all admit the following:

1: Catching measurements are iffy at best

2: We don't know much on how to judge them confidently

3: The majority of us did not like the McCann signing at all in the offseason

4: McCann is neither the problem or the solution

5: Catcher is not the biggest issue at hand, but is up-gradable via FA

6: JR is cheap and no matter who the Sox sign it will be a half measure

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, bmags said:

WARP is good but it misses game calling and management and its clear that McCann was very good there. He also had very few PB despite catching white sox pitchers. Catchers are hard but overall I think the sequencing he would come up with for Giolito, especially, and the game planning disciplining he instilled with the pitchers is why you can value the numbers that take game calling into account. Ideally his framing would lineup, but there is greater concentration with framing among pitchers now anyway, as well as so much fewer SBAs that I think it's good to keep McCann around (in addition, he won't be that expensive)

While I agree with you that I prefer other ways to spend money and that it can't capture pitch selection - I disagree with your statement that the value of framing has gone down, because I think there's a good chance the algorithms would catch that given that they have K-Zone style data for every pitch and can actually see "hey which guy is getting more/fewer borderline strikes called". Given that should be something that can be measured and calculated, I think that's a strong number that is well supported by data over a number of years, and although Grandal isn't my preferred option, his strong framing and other defensive skills are the biggest argument in his favor and the biggest reason to consider him.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While I agree with you that I prefer other ways to spend money and that it can't capture pitch selection - I disagree with your statement that the value of framing has gone down, because I think there's a good chance the algorithms would catch that given that they have K-Zone style data for every pitch and can actually see "hey which guy is getting more/fewer borderline strikes called". Given that should be something that can be measured and calculated, I think that's a strong number that is well supported by data over a number of years, and although Grandal isn't my preferred option, his strong framing and other defensive skills are the biggest argument in his favor and the biggest reason to consider him.

I didn't say value of framing has gone down, just that the worst framing catcher of today is much better than the worst framing catcher of 2012, and the gap between them is not as large as it was prior.

So while I'd prefer to have a great framer on staff, and support signing grandal, McCann is a fine catcher to have and keep around. If you ever need his money back you can trade him. Nice guy catchers find jobs, AJ Ellis was still catching last year.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

I still can't figure out how a guy who led the league in passed balls three times and was benched in the playoffs twice for his horrific catching is (analytically) considered a great catcher.

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, bmags said:

I didn't say value of framing has gone down, just that the worst framing catcher of today is much better than the worst framing catcher of 2012, and the gap between them is not as large as it was prior.

So while I'd prefer to have a great framer on staff, and support signing grandal, McCann is a fine catcher to have and keep around. If you ever need his money back you can trade him. Nice guy catchers find jobs, AJ Ellis was still catching last year.

But that's quantifiable. The worst framing catchers are about 10 runs better today than the worst framing catcher of 2012, and the best framing catchers are comparable. So while Brian McCann was 50 framing runs better than Carlos Santana in 2012, Austin Hedges is 40 framing runs better than Welington Castillo and company. So it is still potentially huge value - if those framing runs are calculated accurately, ,then improvement in that number from McCann to Grandal is a 3 win level improvement.

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But that's quantifiable. The worst framing catchers are about 10 runs better today than the worst framing catcher of 2012, and the best framing catchers are comparable. So while Brian McCann was 50 framing runs better than Carlos Santana in 2012, Austin Hedges is 40 framing runs better than Welington Castillo and company. So it is still potentially huge value - if those framing runs are calculated accurately, ,then improvement in that number from McCann to Grandal is a 3 win level improvement.

I don't disagree, I just don't think keeping mccann comes at the cost of anyone except potentially the 26th man. Grandal will not be able to catch 110 games in all likelihood anymore, so the other ~70 going to a catcher you like is fine. 

[Bob Sacamano]

If Grandal is getting majority of his at bats between 1B/DH. then I would rather sign someone better for DH like JDM if he is available.

Edited October 23, 2019 by soxfan2014

[BackDoorBreach]

Getting Grandal kind of neutralizes JDM and I'd rather have him for 3 or 4 years.

You really can't get both because of Abreu.  

[ChiSox59]

6 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

If Grandal is getting majority of his at bats between 1B/DH. then I would rather sign someone better for DH like JDM if he is available.

He'd be getting the "majority" of his starts at catcher.  He'd start ~90-100 games at catcher.  

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Reading the past couple pages of this thread gave me a migraine. Thanks a lot guys.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

This really isn't that complicated.  Not exact numbers here, but something like this could definitely work. 

Abreu: 1B (100 games), DH (50 games)

Grandal: C (90 games), 1B (30 games), DH (30 games)

McCann: C (50 games), DH (30 games)

Collins: C (20 games), DH (40 games), 1B (20 games)

Basically Abreu is your 1B and occasional DH.  Grandal catches against RHP, DHs or 1B against LHP.  McCann catches Gio and gets a few DH starts against LHP.  Sprike Collins in at catcher, CH and 1B against righties.  

Obviously other guys can DH occasionally too.  

again.... 70 of those games you listed have a bad hitter at DH... makes no sense carrying 3 C. Grandal's entire value is dependent on him playing C.. He is not a DH

Edited October 23, 2019 by cjgalloway

[steveno89]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

McCann was the 9th best catcher in all of baseball last year per fWAR.  Not exactly sure who people think we're going to upgrade with besides Grandal, and even if you sign Grandal, you still need another catcher.

The whole discussion is silly.  McCann is going nowhere for 2020.  

I'm advocating we sign Grandal to a multi year deal and still keep McCann for 2020 as a backup. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

WARP is good but it misses game calling and management and its clear that McCann was very good there. He also had very few PB despite catching white sox pitchers. Catchers are hard but overall I think the sequencing he would come up with for Giolito, especially, and the game planning disciplining he instilled with the pitchers is why you can value the numbers that take game calling into account. Ideally his framing would lineup, but there is greater concentration with framing among pitchers now anyway, as well as so much fewer SBAs that I think it's good to keep McCann around (in addition, he won't be that expensive)

Let me add, that given the umpire ratings that go on, framing is an even more volatile statistic than it was before.

[steveno89]

1 hour ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

He was 4th ranked in bWAR too. Given the volatility of defensive metrics, you're best off taking positional players WAR averages between b and f.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12859&position=C

McCann's career stats

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11368&position=C

Grandal career stats

It is not even a comparison how much better Grandal has been. McCann has not proven enough to be a long term option as more than a backup. Detroit non-tendered him for a reason. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

59 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

While I agree with you that I prefer other ways to spend money and that it can't capture pitch selection - I disagree with your statement that the value of framing has gone down, because I think there's a good chance the algorithms would catch that given that they have K-Zone style data for every pitch and can actually see "hey which guy is getting more/fewer borderline strikes called". Given that should be something that can be measured and calculated, I think that's a strong number that is well supported by data over a number of years, and although Grandal isn't my preferred option, his strong framing and other defensive skills are the biggest argument in his favor and the biggest reason to consider him.

Framing matters but it also relies on an umpire making a mistake.

I respect BP, but I'll respect the catching metrics of an organization like the Dodgers well before any public source. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Just now, steveno89 said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12859&position=C

McCann's career stats

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11368&position=C

Grandal career stats

It is not even a comparison how much better Grandal has been. McCann has not proven enough to be a long term option as more than a backup. Detroit non-tendered him for a reason. 

Many players have been non-tendered only to have successful MLB careers. The main target of the sox off season - JD Martinez - is one. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

53 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

I still can't figure out how a guy who led the league in passed balls three times and was benched in the playoffs twice for his horrific catching is (analytically) considered a great catcher.

Yup, and the Dodgers had no interest in keeping a guy on a reasonable deal who is supposedly (according to cited metrics here) an elite defensive catcher who is a ++ hitter. Their starters did not like throwing to this "elite" framer.

As I said, defensive metrics in general are at their infancy stages league wide. Catching is even harder to analyze defensively than other positions. 

[BackDoorBreach]

35 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

He'd be getting the "majority" of his starts at catcher.  He'd start ~90-100 games at catcher.  

So we're trading McCann or Collins?