A Realistic Offseason

[wegner]

6 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Cole, Strasburg or JD Martinez probably yes...others...not so much.  Because it reduces what some others are willing to offer...it could help us.  We will know soon.  I think Nov. 11th is the date that clubs have to make those offers.

Can Martinez get a QO if he opts out?

I've read speculation that the Mets will tender Wheeler and in that case , I would guess the Sox would not pursue him.

But as you say, we will know soon.  It should be an interesting off season.

[Middle Buffalo]

1 hour ago, caulfield12 said:

You acquire a 36 year old starter with that contract, you’re forced to be in “win now” or all-in mode...which is why you have to wait until the end of the offseason...or you’re really trying to signal to every FA that you’re both serious about winning AND sending right off the bat.

Doesn't Greinke have limited no-trade rights with his current deal, though?

I just looked up Greinke’s contract. It has $62.5M deferred that Houston is paying in addition to around $25M for the next two years. That would not be a good deal for the Sox.

in any event, I think Cole is a pipe dream.

[poppysox]

8 minutes ago, wegner said:

Can Martinez get a QO if he opts out?

I've read speculation that the Mets will tender Wheeler and in that case , I would guess the Sox would not pursue him.

But as you say, we will know soon.  It should be an interesting off season.

My understanding has been that a large percentage of players receiving qualifying offers have opted out.  Something like 90%.  Since I have always thought that having a qualifying offer attached reduced a players desirability and therefore value...kind of a wash if we really want that player.

[ChiSox59]

6 hours ago, poppysox said:

My understanding has been that a large percentage of players receiving qualifying offers have opted out.  Something like 90%.  Since I have always thought that having a qualifying offer attached reduced a players desirability and therefore value...kind of a wash if we really want that player.

Huh? Most players who receive QOs didn’t even have the ability to opt out. 

[BamaDoc]

At our current position in the rebuild, I don't think you do a qualifying offer player unless it is Cole or Strasburg.  I expect Cole to be an Angel or Yankee.  I expect the Nats to sweeten Strasburgs deal by some additional money and years especially if they lose Rendon.  The fact Stras signed an early extension tells me he likes his situation and is unlikely to move.

[Two-Gun Pete]

I think there's a chance that JDM's decline in slugging % in a live ball 2019 may be problematic.

After all, Father Time is undefeated, and he is a 32 year old statue who experienced an ~11.5% drop in slugging [.557 from .629] in a year where the league-average slugging % went up.

I don't disagree that he had been a great hitter, in the past. Will he still be in 2021 as a 34 year old statue, when this club may be ready to compete? Who knows.

 

Regardless, I don't see this club signing him, given his age/cost/agent and this org's thriftiness. But, this may be a situation where he may be in decline as this team is hoping to be climbing into contention.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Two-Gun Pete

[Chicago White Sox]

3 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

At our current position in the rebuild, I don't think you do a qualifying offer player unless it is Cole or Strasburg.  I expect Cole to be an Angel or Yankee.  I expect the Nats to sweeten Strasburgs deal by some additional money and years especially if they lose Rendon.  The fact Stras signed an early extension tells me he likes his situation and is unlikely to move.

So basically you don’t want to add an impact starter?  Because the rest of the top guys will be getting QOs with the exception of Ryu and he’s not exactly a great fit for what we’re looking for.

[wsox05]

10 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

At our current position in the rebuild, I don't think you do a qualifying offer player unless it is Cole or Strasburg.  I expect Cole to be an Angel or Yankee.  I expect the Nats to sweeten Strasburgs deal by some additional money and years especially if they lose Rendon.  The fact Stras signed an early extension tells me he likes his situation and is unlikely to move.

So just keep doing what we’ve been doing and add nothing of real impact. I’m not worried about draft picks at this time. No matter what they’ll still have their higher pick this year in the first round. It’s time to start winning and to win, you have to sign veterans that make your club a lot better. (Like Cole, Wheeler, etc)

[thxfrthmmrs]

Not going after impact free agents because of fear of losing 2nd and 3rd rounders is the biggest mistake Sox could make this offseason.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 minutes ago, thxfrthmmrs said:

Not going after impact free agents because of fear of losing 2nd and 3rd rounders is the biggest mistake Sox could make this offseason.

It would be disastrous given we only have four more years of control of our two best players at the moment.

[TheFutureIsNear]

Yup, if anything the Sox should take advantage if other teams shy away from players with picks attached...Ozuna being 1 of them. He’s not a guy I want to get in a bidding war over or anything, but if he can be had for something like 3/$50M because no one wants to give up the pick I’d be all for it.

 

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

10 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So basically you don’t want to add an impact starter?  Because the rest of the top guys will be getting QOs with the exception of Ryu and he’s not exactly a great fit for what we’re looking for.

I thought then, and I still think now that it was necessary to land one of Machado/Harper a year ago. (I would still take either one of them now, even after their predictable mixed results in 2019.)

 

I think it's absolutely ESSENTIAL to land a top SP. I think its essential for the rebuild. I think its essential to restore credibility with the fans, the media, and with future prospective FA.

 

Having said that, I'm mentally prepared for this front office to shit their pants again. As usual. I hope I'm wrong.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Two-Gun Pete

[SCCWS]

12 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think there's a chance that JDM's decline in slugging % in a live ball 2019 may be problematic.

After all, Father Time is undefeated, and he is a 32 year old statue who experienced an ~11.5% drop in slugging [.557 from .629] in a year where the league-average slugging % went up.

I don't disagree that he had been a great hitter, in the past. Will he still be in 2021 as a 34 year old statue, when this club may be ready to compete? Who knows.

 

Regardless, I don't see this club signing him, given his age/cost/agent and this org's thriftiness. But, this may be a situation where he may be in decline as this team is hoping to be climbing into contention.

I would assume some of that was the back issues he battled at times in 2019. He also played in the field less as well because of his back.  

[BamaDoc]

I really don't see the love for Ozuna.  Bad glove, right handed, one good year three years ago.  The last two years have been slightly higher WAR than Yolmer who most don't want to keep at 6 million let alone 16plus.  

I consider Cole and Stras top of the rotation starters and would gladly sign them up at market rate.  Most the others you either hope they improve or have injury/age issues that I don't consider them TOR starters.  My plan calls for an innings eater and a second either swing guy or guy who could be moved at deadline depending on the health/performance of our starters.  I think our best bet for a top starter is that one develops from within.  Most the other FA, I see as 3s on our staff.  2 of Gio, Cease, or Kopech need to be 2 quality or we are in trouble anyway.  (for definition clarification, just because a guy is a #1 on a bad staff doesn't make him a #1.  I think there are less than 30 #1 pitchers in baseball.  I do believe Astros and Nats each have two and Greinke has been but doubt he maintains going forward but certainly could be wrong)

[TheFutureIsNear]

46 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I really don't see the love for Ozuna.  Bad glove, right handed, one good year three years ago.  The last two years have been slightly higher WAR than Yolmer who most don't want to keep at 6 million let alone 16plus.  

I consider Cole and Stras top of the rotation starters and would gladly sign them up at market rate.  Most the others you either hope they improve or have injury/age issues that I don't consider them TOR starters.  My plan calls for an innings eater and a second either swing guy or guy who could be moved at deadline depending on the health/performance of our starters.  I think our best bet for a top starter is that one develops from within.  Most the other FA, I see as 3s on our staff.  2 of Gio, Cease, or Kopech need to be 2 quality or we are in trouble anyway.  (for definition clarification, just because a guy is a #1 on a bad staff doesn't make him a #1.  I think there are less than 30 #1 pitchers in baseball.  I do believe Astros and Nats each have two and Greinke has been but doubt he maintains going forward but certainly could be wrong)

Hyperbole much? All the way around...Yolmer’s best WAR season wasn’t as good as Ozuna’s worst in the past 4 years.

Also haven’t seen any love for Ozuna at all...just a few, such as myself, that would like to have Ozuna at fair market value for the next 3 years. He would represent an obvious upgrade. He’s a 2.5 WAR OF’er and under 30. If the comp pick keeps teams away and Ozuna can be had for around 3 years 50M it’s a no brainer in my opinion. However, if it takes more than 3 years and over 16/17M I’m not interested.

[mqr]

 

[poppysox]

21 hours ago, BamaDoc said:

At our current position in the rebuild, I don't think you do a qualifying offer player unless it is Cole or Strasburg.  I expect Cole to be an Angel or Yankee.  I expect the Nats to sweeten Strasburgs deal by some additional money and years especially if they lose Rendon.  The fact Stras signed an early extension tells me he likes his situation and is unlikely to move.

Strasburgs value plummeted today with his inability to answer the bell for game 5.  Buyers beware.

[ron883]

3 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Strasburgs value plummeted today with his inability to answer the bell for game 5.  Buyers beware.

This is quite a stretch. I don't think it impacts his value much. 

[Buehrle>Wood]

19 minutes ago, poppysox said:

Strasburgs value plummeted today with his inability to answer the bell for game 5.  Buyers beware.

Scherzer was scratched not Strasburg

[Two-Gun Pete]

7 hours ago, SCCWS said:

I would assume some of that was the back issues he battled at times in 2019. He also played in the field less as well because of his back.  

This is probably true.

It also doesn't give me a good feeling about JDM being able to stave off Father Time as he ages. We'll have to wait and see.

[BamaDoc]

3 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

Hyperbole much? All the way around...Yolmer’s best WAR season wasn’t as good as Ozuna’s worst in the past 4 years.

Also haven’t seen any love for Ozuna at all...just a few, such as myself, that would like to have Ozuna at fair market value for the next 3 years. He would represent an obvious upgrade. He’s a 2.5 WAR OF’er and under 30. If the comp pick keeps teams away and Ozuna can be had for around 3 years 50M it’s a no brainer in my opinion. However, if it takes more than 3 years and over 16/17M I’m not interested.

Perhaps we are looking at different sets of numbers?  I was using baseball reference WAR values .  In the last five years going oldest to most recent Yolmer had values of .8, -.1, 3.5, 2.6,2.1     Ozuna .5, 2.6, 6.1 great no argument!, 2.9, 2.2.   So by  these stats , Yolmers best year beats Ozuna 4 out of 5 years(your pick) .  Not debating if Ozuna is decent which I think he is , he is just not a great fit and not a difference maker in my opinion.    In the last two years, which I think has some relevance as post Miami for Ozuna, the WAR is 4.7 Yolmer to 5.1 for Ozuna.  

[Whisox05]

22 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

Perhaps we are looking at different sets of numbers?  I was using baseball reference WAR values .  In the last five years going oldest to most recent Yolmer had values of .8, -.1, 3.5, 2.6,2.1     Ozuna .5, 2.6, 6.1 great no argument!, 2.9, 2.2.   So by  these stats , Yolmers best year beats Ozuna 4 out of 5 years(your pick) .  Not debating if Ozuna is decent which I think he is , he is just not a great fit and not a difference maker in my opinion.    In the last two years, which I think has some relevance as post Miami for Ozuna, the WAR is 4.7 Yolmer to 5.1 for Ozuna.  

You do realize most of yolmer value is going to come defense side. Offense is a below average major leaguer. Ozuna is going to provide over a average major leaguer offensively which yolmer has never sniffed at. Trying to compare the 2 only by war is crazy. Not high on Ozuna but offensively he's much better then yolmer. Sox need to add some major offensive 

Edited October 28, 2019 by aeichhor

[TheFutureIsNear]

30 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

Perhaps we are looking at different sets of numbers?  I was using baseball reference WAR values .  In the last five years going oldest to most recent Yolmer had values of .8, -.1, 3.5, 2.6,2.1     Ozuna .5, 2.6, 6.1 great no argument!, 2.9, 2.2.   So by  these stats , Yolmers best year beats Ozuna 4 out of 5 years(your pick) .  Not debating if Ozuna is decent which I think he is , he is just not a great fit and not a difference maker in my opinion.    In the last two years, which I think has some relevance as post Miami for Ozuna, the WAR is 4.7 Yolmer to 5.1 for Ozuna.  

Fangraphs...I’m not going to pretend to know the difference in the #’s, but if the #’s you are using say Yolmer is > than Ozuna any year other than Yolmers’s 2017 I’m not buying it. If you can’t produce a .700 OPS you can’t be in my lineup everyday. Yolmer is a bench utility guy. 

[BamaDoc]

2 hours ago, aeichhor said:

You do realize most of yolmer value is going to come defense side. Offense is a below average major leaguer. Ozuna is going to provide over a average major leaguer offensively which yolmer has never sniffed at. Trying to compare the 2 only by war is crazy. Not high on Ozuna but offensively he's much better then yolmer. Sox need to add some major offensive 

Completely agree Yolmer's value is being above average defensively and is a below league average bat.  I am not sure what you are saying that comparing by WAR is crazy.  WAR is supposed to be a comprehensive way of evaluating all parts of a player's game and allowing comparisons even between different positions.  I do not understand the exact calculations of WAR and how they differ between sites.  I would love for a more analytical person to explain the differences in calculations.  Ozuna by OPS+ was 6% and 7% above league average with the bat.  His defense has been considered negative.  When I see a guy with a little above average bat and poor defense it makes me think of a ok guy not necessarily a difference maker.  Would he be an improvement over what we put out there, yes but so would a bunch of people.  It is why I prefer Grandal as an addition as he has been about 20% above league average offensively and fits better.

I agree with futureisnear that Yolmer's deficiencies with the bat are enough that I wouldn't want to start him but use him in a utility role.  I had only brought him up because by bref WAR he was valued similar to Ozuna.  Sorry if that confused things.

[Thad Bosley]

On 10/26/2019 at 5:37 AM, ron883 said:

The reigning and unanimous recipient of the worst poster of the year award strikes again!

It’s not me making one asinine post after another about Abreu.