A Realistic Offseason

[Thad Bosley]

23 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

I think there's a chance that JDM's decline in slugging % in a live ball 2019 may be problematic.

After all, Father Time is undefeated, and he is a 32 year old statue who experienced an ~11.5% drop in slugging [.557 from .629] in a year where the league-average slugging % went up.

I’m pretty certain the Sox could find a way to squeeze a .557 slugging % somewhere in their lineup.  

[Two-Gun Pete]

39 minutes ago, Thad Bosley said:

I’m pretty certain the Sox could find a way to squeeze a .557 slugging % somewhere in their lineup.  

Except that, after another ~11.5% drop, the .557 slg% JDM enjoyed in the juiced ball season of 2019 plummets to a less-thrilling .493. (For reference, Abreu slugged .503 in 2019.)

 

What if the ball is less lively in 2020? What if JDM's back problems persist? How much further will his slugging and wrc+ drop?

 

Given the kind of contract he's rumored to want, and his asshole of an agent, are we sure we want to sign a 32 year old statue? I'm not too sure.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

54 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Except that, after another ~11.5% drop, the .557 slg% JDM enjoyed in the juiced ball season of 2019 plummets to a less-thrilling .493. (For reference, Abreu slugged .503 in 2019.)

 

What if the ball is less lively in 2020? What if JDM's back problems persist? How much further will his slugging and wrc+ drop?

 

Given the kind of contract he's rumored to want, and his asshole of an agent, are we sure we want to sign a 32 year old statue? I'm not too sure.

All this is pretty much how I feel about JDM. Not only that but if Abreu is staying ,which appears likely ,then I'd feel much better adding LH power bats like Grandal and Moustakas to rotate into DH once in a while along with McCann , Eloy and Collins while that combination of players also allows  good backups at C. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and also can provide for power off the bench when one is sat. I don't have a particular preference in RF except to say I'm not interested in trading for any rentals. Too soon for that.

A lot depends on how strongly Kopech, Rodon ,and Dunning can recover from TJ surgery and if Cease and Lopez can show decent improvement.  If many of the stars align the Sox can develop a strong starting 5 and deal from a position of strength while keeping a watchful eye on Collins, the minor league OF's, Vaughn. Stiever and anyone else who may spring up. Remember there is still Mercedes who kind of seems like the odd man out but you never know if the guys bat is special or just another good minor league player like Palka. There's not really a need for an older statue when we have plenty of our own bat only guys. The price of free agent starting pitching, his cost (also QO), ,age, and bat only more than likely leaves JDM out.

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[greg775]

The Sox don't convey any attitude of urgency to its fanbase. They either know what they want to do with this roster building or don't. Right now they should get Jose's signing done and announce it. If it's against baseball rules or unwritten rules to upstage the World Series, then announce it the day after the series is decided.

Then get to work and make significant offers to the guys they feel we need to WIN next season. My gosh all these losing seasons in a row. Time to act at least like the FO cares. They could leak some stuff to media at least.

[ron883]

They need to announce the Avi signing ASAP

[Flash]

6 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

All this is pretty much how I feel about JDM. Not only that but if Abreu is staying ,which appears likely ,then I'd feel much better adding LH power bats like Grandal and Moustakas to rotate into DH once in a while along with McCann , Eloy and Collins while that combination of players also allows  good backups at C. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and also can provide for power off the bench when one is sat. I don't have a particular preference in RF except to say I'm not interested in trading for any rentals. Too soon for that.

A lot depends on how strongly Kopech, Rodon ,and Dunning can recover from TJ surgery and if Cease and Lopez can show decent improvement.  If many of the stars align the Sox can develop a strong starting 5 and deal from a position of strength while keeping a watchful eye on Collins, the minor league OF's, Vaughn. Stiever and anyone else who may spring up. Remember there is still Mercedes who kind of seems like the odd man out but you never know if the guys bat is special or just another good minor league player like Palka. There's not really a need for an older statue when we have plenty of our own bat only guys. The price of free agent starting pitching, his cost (also QO), ,age, and bat only more than likely leaves JDM out.

 

couldnt agree more

 

[he gone.]

Another angle to consider is the trade route. Just names of guys I've come up with ... some with service time left, some with a year or two on their contract, but possible difference makers that may be available....

Corey Kluber - inter division trade would be tough, but i don't think it's out of question. He really hasn't had a fall out, just a freak accident this year and maybe one that kept his arm fresh for an extra year. Best case scenario is you trade and re-sign him and he turns into Verlander'esque.

German Marquez/Jon Gray - not sure the Rox would trade either of these guys espeically with how much money they've dedicated to some of their recent signings. But maybe you can do a deal where you take on Blackmon for RF (i know his splits are troubling and paid a lot) and you take on one of those pitchers. Doubt they'd do it, but I like the Rox roster a lot for trade possibilities (Garret Hampson, Brendan Rodgers/Story, Blackmon, Gray, Marquez, etc.) They are a team that has stretched their budget and if you're willing to take on a bad contract maybe you can get help there. 

Boyd - Again, another division team, but they are a few years away from all their stud SP coming up & are in needs of bats. Maybe you put together a deal that gives them some minor league bats.

Marlins pitchers - none of these guys are likely your true difference maker, but Marlins are a terrible orginization always willing to trade. 

 

None of those are super inspiring - but then again not that easy to add impact SP, which is why you need to spend on a Cole type when available or why someone like Quintana was worth so much. 

 

[mqr]

10 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Except that, after another ~11.5% drop, the .557 slg% JDM enjoyed in the juiced ball season of 2019 plummets to a less-thrilling .493. (For reference, Abreu slugged .503 in 2019.)

 

What if the ball is less lively in 2020? What if JDM's back problems persist? How much further will his slugging and wrc+ drop?

 

Given the kind of contract he's rumored to want, and his asshole of an agent, are we sure we want to sign a 32 year old statue? I'm not too sure.

I think the decline has more to do with how outrageously good he was in 18 and the fact that that just likely wouldn't continue than actual physical decline. 

[Balta1701]

15 minutes ago, mqr said:

I think the decline has more to do with how outrageously good he was in 18 and the fact that that just likely wouldn't continue than actual physical decline. 

That's great. So are you paying him $80 million dollars based on what he did in 2018 (a 6 rWAR player) or based on what he'll likely do for you in 2020-2023 (a 3 rWAR player last year)?

[SoxBlanco]

17 minutes ago, mqr said:

I think the decline has more to do with how outrageously good he was in 18 and the fact that that just likely wouldn't continue than actual physical decline. 

Agreed. Let's take a look at another right handed DH as a comparison: Edgar Martinez.  In 1995 (age 32), he had a ridiculous .628 slugging.  Two years later, the slugging had dropped to .554 (very similar to what we are looking at with JDM). Edgar Martinez went on to post slugging percentages of .565, .554, .579, .543 in the four years that followed during his age 35 to 38 seasons. 

[bmags]

15 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That's great. So are you paying him $80 million dollars based on what he did in 2018 (a 6 rWAR player) or based on what he'll likely do for you in 2020-2023 (a 3 rWAR player last year)?

that amount is fine for a 3 WAR player, but even then, for Martinez I care about wRC+ more than WAR. I do think he can maintain 135+ for 2 years and hopefully 120+ for a few after that, and I think that there are few players on the market I think can produce that much.

[Balta1701]

17 minutes ago, bmags said:

that amount is fine for a 3 WAR player, but even then, for Martinez I care about wRC+ more than WAR. I do think he can maintain 135+ for 2 years and hopefully 120+ for a few after that, and I think that there are few players on the market I think can produce that much.

Ok, so now on to the next step - Mike Moustakas has been at 110-115 wRC+ the last few years, hits left handed, and has greater defensive abilities than Martinez. While that's a clear upgrade with the bats, is it worth $60 million in extra commitments?

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, so now on to the next step - Mike Moustakas has been at 110-115 wRC+ the last few years, hits left handed, and has greater defensive abilities than Martinez. While that's a clear upgrade with the bats, is it worth $60 million in extra commitments?

Yes.

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yes.

Well, I'll disagree on this one - but that's of course assuming I get to spend money on pitching.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well, I'll disagree on this one - but that's of course assuming I get to spend money on pitching.

Yeah you can't do this in isolation. If we could only have one addition and I was asked to choose between Mous or JD I'm choosing JDM, if the additional cost of JDM is causing us to sign Tanner Rourk as our pitching help for some reason then it's Mous.

I do like how Mous can start out at 2b and then slide over to DH. 

The only thing I worry about with Moustakas is when his walk rate dips he may not have the power to make up for it to keep him that much over average. And at the DH spot that's not particularly exciting, this is the Abreu problem anyway.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Yes.

No. Emphatically. Especially not when dealing with the likely cost of starting pitching and other areas of need. Yes maybe if the Sox plan on a $150M payroll this year but not likely. I'd rather have Moose and Grandal to improve left handed power rotate in at C, DH,1st,2nd and 3rd, and upgrade the bench significantly. JDM provides nothing but a very strong bat to upgrade the lineup. I'd much rather improve multiple areas (LH power, bench , versatility,  very good replacement in Moose when Moncada gets injured, spell Abreu at 1st, perhaps start the season at 2nd base until Madrigal comes up, DH ) than just one area (lineup ) while also hurting payroll and giving up a draft pick (when Boston gives him a QO). That's a real lot to give up for just a bat. You also don't have to sit Moose against lefties unlike someone like Pederson.

The Sox just have too many needs amongst position players to settle for only a great hitter.

Of course JDM may not opt out considering his limited options

Edited October 28, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

5 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

No. Emphatically. Especially not when dealing with the likely cost of starting pitching and other areas of need. Yes maybe if the Sox plan on a $150M payroll this year but not likely. I'd rather have Moose and Grandal to improve left handed power rotate in at C, DH,1st,2nd and 3rd, and upgrade the bench significantly. JDM provides nothing but a very strong bat to upgrade the lineup. I'd much rather improve multiple areas (LH power, bench , versatility,  very good replacement in Moose when Moncada gets injured, spell Abreu at 1st, perhaps start the season at 2nd base until Madrigal comes up, DH ) than just one area (lineup ) while also hurting payroll and giving up a draft pick (when Boston gives him a QO). That's a real lot to give up for just a bat.

The Sox just have too many needs amongst position players to settle for only a great hitter.

Of course JDM may not opt out considering his limited options

Great hitters cover up a lot. Moustakas walk rate drops down to 7% where it was most of his career, then suddenly he's a lot closer to average. Are we glad we spent money on an average hitter? I'd rather they spend money on assets that are hard to acquire (that's where we've had the most success anyway) rather than "spread the money around". If we sign Moustakas because we signed a top pitcher, then fine. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

Well, I'll disagree on this one - but that's of course assuming I get to spend money on pitching.

Why are these decisions mutually exclusive?

[Balta1701]

57 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why are these decisions mutually exclusive?

You want to bring in both Moustakas and JD Martinez? 

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

You want to bring in both Moustakas and JD Martinez? 

No, that pitching and JDM are mutually exclusive.  We should be adding a high end arm plus an impact bat, whether that be JDM or someone like Grandal.

[Balta1701]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

No, that pitching and JDM are mutually exclusive.  We should be adding a high end arm plus an impact bat, whether that be JDM or someone like Grandal.

Well to some extent they are, because there's only so much money to go around. Every dollar you want to spend on the DH position is a dollar fewer that this org will spend on pitching.

I cannot figure out any reasonable way to budget the best pitcher this year (Cole) and Martinez at DH, while also filling RF, if there are some payroll limits attached and I also want bullpen help. Something's gotta give.

I know we won't do Cole, but I can make Cole work on a $140 million payroll with Moustakas, Calhoun/Reddick, and good bullpen help. I can't do that if I replace Moustakas with Martinez unless I can push $155 million this year or I go for a cheaper pitching option. 

And if I have to stick to a $120 million payroll limit, and I go for Martinez, then my pitching addition is Quintana and my RF is Avi garcia, or something like that.

[caulfield12]

12 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

No, that pitching and JDM are mutually exclusive.  We should be adding a high end arm plus an impact bat, whether that be JDM or someone like Grandal.

If they can’t afford to add anything more than JDM, and one of the next 4-6 best pitchers after Cole...with the rest of the additions being in the under $10 million/season category, is that enough?  Probably for the majority of the fanbase?

You’ve locked in Abreu at first and probably pushed back Vaughn to at least until 2022...unless Abreu falls off a cliff...assuming they give him at least a two-year deal.

In theory, you needed two pitchers...which puts a lot more pressure on Kopech/Lopez/Dunning/Cease/Rodon.   Maybe that’s what they need, rather than the assumption of nearly “guaranteed” spots?

What happens with RF, C, and is there still enough money for at least one more bullpen addition?

Do they dare play JDM in RF, and how much pressure does that put on LUIS Robert to do more than even he is capable of defensively?

How much can they trust McCann and Collins without Grandal?   Colome, Bummer, Herrera and Fry?

Edited October 28, 2019 by caulfield12

[bmags]

14 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Well to some extent they are, because there's only so much money to go around. Every dollar you want to spend on the DH position is a dollar fewer that this org will spend on pitching.

I cannot figure out any reasonable way to budget the best pitcher this year (Cole) and Martinez at DH, while also filling RF, if there are some payroll limits attached and I also want bullpen help. Something's gotta give.

I know we won't do Cole, but I can make Cole work on a $140 million payroll with Moustakas, Calhoun/Reddick, and good bullpen help. I can't do that if I replace Moustakas with Martinez unless I can push $155 million this year or I go for a cheaper pitching option. 

And if I have to stick to a $120 million payroll limit, and I go for Martinez, then my pitching addition is Quintana and my RF is Avi garcia, or something like that.

You'd have to trade for a Nimmo who carries a very low price tag due to injuries/arb status.

[Balta1701]

Just now, bmags said:

You'd have to trade for a Nimmo who carries a very low price tag due to injuries/arb status.

And there goes Madrigal or something like that (since the Mets can't exactly use Vaughn), so now I also need Gennett at a minimal price to cover my 2b spot.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

Great hitters cover up a lot. Moustakas walk rate drops down to 7% where it was most of his career, then suddenly he's a lot closer to average. Are we glad we spent money on an average hitter? I'd rather they spend money on assets that are hard to acquire (that's where we've had the most success anyway) rather than "spread the money around". If we sign Moustakas because we signed a top pitcher, then fine. 

Great hitters do not cover up much such as the many times I mentioned the other needs the Sox have. If we can sign a top itcher we lose a draft pick . If we sign JDm we likely lose another one. Maybe the Sox can sign JDM, a top pitcher and Grandal . Those 3 are a big chunk of payroll  which still only gives the Sox 1 more LH hitter screws with positional versatility and a competent bench . I'd rather not lose too many draft picks since that's the opposite of what a team like TB does. I'd also like some depth on the major league roster in case of injury. Moustakas is a very consistent hitter and can play multiple positions. I'm not all that concerned with his walk rate as I am with his power and ability to be so useful at 4 positions in the lineup.

Also remember when dealing with larger contracts such as JDM might require the Sox become highly risk adverse and given the kind of contract that Boston gave him filled with clauses about re-injuring his foot it further limits his market unless a team is willing to give him guaranteed money without restrictions. This would be one time I would agree that he would require restrictions when you also have to consider back problems making it even more unlikely the Sox sign him.

Might be an interesting question if given all the information about his current contract and . possible lack of suitors and an attached QO. how many still think he opts out.