A Realistic Offseason

[Balta1701]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

how many still think he opts out.

 

I've long thought that opting out isn't worth the risk, but I'm risk-averse and baseball players have a habit of betting on themselves. 

[caulfield12]

2 minutes ago, bmags said:

You'd have to trade for a Nimmo who carries a very low price tag due to injuries/arb status.

Based on what evidence?  Has there even been a credible link out there that they were looking to move him?

It’s just hard to imagine a team selling that low on a controlled asset one year removed from such an impressive season statistically...unless they’re pretty darned sure he’s not ever going to repeat it (see Avi Garcia).
 

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

You'd have to trade for a Nimmo who carries a very low price tag due to injuries/arb status.

Doubtful the price tag is as low as you think. Good 2 way, LH hitting , 3 years left and only a year removed from a 4 WAR season doesn't sound that cheap to me.

[ChiSox59]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

And there goes Madrigal or something like that (since the Mets can't exactly use Vaughn), so now I also need Gennett at a minimal price to cover my 2b spot.

I don't think Brandon Nimmo is going to require a top 40 prospect in the game that is basically MLB ready.  We'll have to give up a couple pieces we'd rather keep to get Nimmo or a guy like Nimmo, but its not going to be from Robert-Madrigal-Vaugh-Cease-Kopech, etc., group.  

[Balta1701]

4 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't think Brandon Nimmo is going to require a top 40 prospect in the game that is basically MLB ready.  We'll have to give up a couple pieces we'd rather keep to get Nimmo or a guy like Nimmo, but its not going to be from Robert-Madrigal-Vaugh-Cease-Kopech, etc., group.  

I don't have any idea why the Mets would give him up without getting something substantial in return. For a guy this far pre-FA, if they can't get something of that level for him, there's no plausible reason to move him. You can move him for scraps next offseason if you want, why move him for scraps now? Outside of that group, to my eyes, the White Sox have nothing of sufficient value to offer. 

[caulfield12]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

I don't think Brandon Nimmo is going to require a top 40 prospect in the game that is basically MLB ready.  We'll have to give up a couple pieces we'd rather keep to get Nimmo or a guy like Nimmo, but its not going to be from Robert-Madrigal-Vaugh-Cease-Kopech, etc., group.  

They already have a 1B in Alonso, but sure...the asking price would definitely start with someone in that tier.

If I’m the Mets, I’m not going to happy with Stiever, Walker and one more piece just because the odds of one of those 3-4 lesser pieces ever having a 4 fWAR season of their own aren’t great.

We don’t (currently) have that high upside minor leaguer we can actually afford to part with.

And if Stiever’s that good...we need him more than the Mets, who will get a huge potential bounty when they option off Syndegaard, deGrom or Stroman to the highest bidders.

[Harold's Leg Lift]

Nimmo is one of Van Weenie's clients.  That's his guy.  He's more likely to sign him to an extenstion than he is trading him away.   

[bmags]

19 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Based on what evidence?  Has there even been a credible link out there that they were looking to move him?

It’s just hard to imagine a team selling that low on a controlled asset one year removed from such an impressive season statistically...unless they’re pretty darned sure he’s not ever going to repeat it (see Avi Garcia).
 

 

You'd have to trade for a Nimmo

 

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't have any idea why the Mets would give him up without getting something substantial in return. For a guy this far pre-FA, if they can't get something of that level for him, there's no plausible reason to move him. You can move him for scraps next offseason if you want, why move him for scraps now? Outside of that group, to my eyes, the White Sox have nothing of sufficient value to offer. 

Regardless, to make it work trading for a cheaper OF that is on the outs due to depth or questionable pedigree (Tauchmann)/Rockies. Both require needing idiosyncrasies from those front offices.

This is where we should probably get comfortable with Mazara being the addition.

[bmags]

22 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Doubtful the price tag is as low as you think. Good 2 way, LH hitting , 3 years left and only a year removed from a 4 WAR season doesn't sound that cheap to me.

I didn't say Nimmo would be low to acquire. His literal price tag is likely to be low, however.

[bmags]

28 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Great hitters do not cover up much such as the many times I mentioned the other needs the Sox have. If we can sign a top itcher we lose a draft pick . If we sign JDm we likely lose another one. Maybe the Sox can sign JDM, a top pitcher and Grandal . Those 3 are a big chunk of payroll  which still only gives the Sox 1 more LH hitter screws with positional versatility and a competent bench . I'd rather not lose too many draft picks since that's the opposite of what a team like TB does. I'd also like some depth on the major league roster in case of injury. Moustakas is a very consistent hitter and can play multiple positions. I'm not all that concerned with his walk rate as I am with his power and ability to be so useful at 4 positions in the lineup.

Also remember when dealing with larger contracts such as JDM might require the Sox become highly risk adverse and given the kind of contract that Boston gave him filled with clauses about re-injuring his foot it further limits his market unless a team is willing to give him guaranteed money without restrictions. This would be one time I would agree that he would require restrictions when you also have to consider back problems making it even more unlikely the Sox sign him.

Might be an interesting question if given all the information about his current contract and . possible lack of suitors and an attached QO. how many still think he opts out.

 

Here's the thing for me, a Moustakas is available every year, pretty much every month outside August/Sept/October.

Stretching trying to make sure every roster has a stable chance of 2 WAR is a fools errand to me because you just as often end up having spent resources on several replaceable players. Go get some really good things, and if needed you can send them off next year becasue they will still be somewhat wanted.

You aren't going to get truly screwed on JDM for 3 years, just like you won't get screwed with Mous. 

[caulfield12]

The Mets could trade Nimmo for Walker, Adolfo, Rutherford, Gonzalez and Basabe and still very easily be on the wrong side of that trade.

Stiever is seemingly the only pitcher from the lower levels to make it a bit more palatable, but we still don’t have the appealing potential pieces (not enough, at least)  and they don’t need Vaughn even if the Sox were willing to reverse course so quickly and trade him.

[ChiSox59]

22 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

They already have a 1B in Alonso, but sure...the asking price would definitely start with someone in that tier.

If I’m the Mets, I’m not going to happy with Stiever, Walker and one more piece just because the odds of one of those 3-4 lesser pieces ever having a 4 fWAR season of their own aren’t great.

We don’t (currently) have that high upside minor leaguer we can actually afford to part with.

And if Stiever’s that good...we need him more than the Mets, who will get a huge potential bounty when they option off Syndegaard, deGrom or Stroman to the highest bidders.

Start with....ya, I can agree with that.  

Mets have a crowded OF situation.  Conforto, McNeil both need to play the corners.  Sure, McNeil can play the IF, but he's not very good at it and they already have plenty of guys to play 2B and 3B.  Then you have Dom Smith who will get some time in LF and RF as he is completely blocked at 1B now.  Then you have Cespedes under contract for $29.5 million in 2020, so they may want to try to work him in as well (though I doubt they are counting on him).  Point being - they're pretty jammed up in the OF, and they're very lefty heavy.  I am not saying they're going to get out there looking to get rid of Nimmo, but he definitely makes sense as someone they could move.

I do think Stiever/Dunning + Walker/Rutherford + back end top 30 guy gets you pretty close to a deal.  Obviously they would prefer Steiver and Walker to Dunning/Rutherford, but just throwing some names out there that could make sense.  

Edited October 28, 2019 by ChiSox59

[Balta1701]

5 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Start with....ya, I can agree with that.  

Mets have a crowded OF situation.  Conforto, McNeil both need to play the corners.  Sure, McNeil can play the IF, but he's not very good at it and they already have plenty of guys to play 2B and 3B.  Then you have Dom Smith who will get some time in LF and RF as he is completely blocked at 1B now.  Then you have Cespedes under contract for $29.5 million in 2020, so they may want to try to work him in as well (though I doubt they are counting on him).  Point being - they're pretty jammed up in the OF, and they're very lefty heavy.  I am not saying they're going to get out there looking to get rid of Nimmo, but he definitely makes sense as someone they could move.

I do think Stiever/Dunning + Walker/Rutherford + back end top 30 guy gets you pretty close to a deal.  Obviously they would prefer Steiver and Walker to Dunning/Rutherford, but just throwing some names out there that could make sense.  

I don't think I'd do anything resembling like that if I were in the Mets position unless I had some really bad medical news about him. There should be way better deals out there for that player if I want to move him.

[ChiSox59]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't think I'd do anything resembling like that if I were in the Mets position unless I had some really bad medical news about him. There should be way better deals out there for that player if I want to move him.

Yah, I have a hard time seeing anyone give up a top 50 prospect for a guy who has been hurt for large portion of 2/3 seasons he's been a big leaguer, and only has 3 years of arbitration control left.  He's a fantastic fit for the White Sox, but he'd obviously still be a roll of the dice with his injury history.  Perhaps the Mets would prefer to just hold onto him - totally reasonable to think that.  Hard to really handicap what BVW will do, but based on what I just described a few minutes ago, I think its also reasonable that he will be available this offseason for the right price.  If the "right price" to the Mets starts with Madrigal and they won't get off it, I'd rather just trade for someone else.  I think Madrigal is considerably more valuable than Nimmo, and I've been one of the loudest proponents for acquiring him, and believe I was was the first to start mentioning Nimmo here months and months ago before 80% of the board jumped on the wagon.  

[Thad Bosley]

16 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Except that, after another ~11.5% drop, the .557 slg% JDM enjoyed in the juiced ball season of 2019 plummets to a less-thrilling .493. (For reference, Abreu slugged .503 in 2019.)

 

What if the ball is less lively in 2020? What if JDM's back problems persist? How much further will his slugging and wrc+ drop?

 

Given the kind of contract he's rumored to want, and his asshole of an agent, are we sure we want to sign a 32 year old statue? I'm not too sure.

Well, what’s not clear to me at this point is what the “three year plan” is gonna be IF we resign Abreu, sign JDM, AND bring up Vaughn?  

I, for one, am very excited about Vaughn’s potential, so I’m not ready just yet to send him off packing in a trade just trying to make room for two DH types.   

So who plays where and when come 2021 if we have all three on the roster?

Edited October 28, 2019 by Thad Bosley

[bmags]

1 minute ago, Thad Bosley said:

Well, what’s not clear to me at this point is what the “three year plan” is gonna be IF we resign Abreu, sign JDM, AND bring up Vaughn?  

I, for one, am very excited about Vaughn’s potential, so I’m not ready just yet to send him off packing in a trade just trying make room for two DH types.   

So who plays where and when come 2021 if we have all three on the roster?

If Vaughn is that good you can just trade JDM.

[Thad Bosley]

5 minutes ago, bmags said:

If Vaughn is that good you can just trade JDM.

Yeah, I agree, but then why bother signing him if there’s a pretty decent likelihood you’d trade him in a year?  Might mean Grandal is the better fit for this team at this time, so throw the resources at him.  

[ChiSox59]

8 minutes ago, Thad Bosley said:

Well, what’s not clear to me at this point is what the “three year plan” is gonna be IF we resign Abreu, sign JDM, AND bring up Vaughn?  

I, for one, am very excited about Vaughn’s potential, so I’m not ready just yet to send him off packing in a trade just trying to make room for two DH types.   

So who plays where and when come 2021 if we have all three on the roster?

Another in a long list of reasons why Grandal is better fit than JDM. 

[Thad Bosley]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Another in a long list of reasons why Grandal is better fit than JDM. 

Yep.

[Balta1701]

1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Yah, I have a hard time seeing anyone give up a top 50 prospect for a guy who has been hurt for large portion of 2/3 seasons he's been a big leaguer, and only has 3 years of arbitration control left.  He's a fantastic fit for the White Sox, but he'd obviously still be a roll of the dice with his injury history.  Perhaps the Mets would prefer to just hold onto him - totally reasonable to think that.  Hard to really handicap what BVW will do, but based on what I just described a few minutes ago, I think its also reasonable that he will be available this offseason for the right price.  If the "right price" to the Mets starts with Madrigal and they won't get off it, I'd rather just trade for someone else.  I think Madrigal is considerably more valuable than Nimmo, and I've been one of the loudest proponents for acquiring him, and believe I was was the first to start mentioning Nimmo here months and months ago before 80% of the board jumped on the wagon.  

I don't believe the White Sox should give up a Madrigal-level player for Nimmo either and yeah, I think the Mets should be holding onto this guy. Former first round pick who has had a successful season early in his career - that's a piece you don't let go without a strong return. 

This is where the failure of all of the secondary parts of the White Sox's system comes into play. All the good players we'd want to trade for - we don't have the ammunition. It's Madrigal/Vaughn or a bunch of guys who aren't worth much. We dont' have anyone around #75 who could be the centerpiece of a decent but not overwhelming package. 

[ChiSox59]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I don't believe the White Sox should give up a Madrigal-level player for Nimmo either and yeah, I think the Mets should be holding onto this guy. Former first round pick who has had a successful season early in his career - that's a piece you don't let go without a strong return. 

This is where the failure of all of the secondary parts of the White Sox's system comes into play. All the good players we'd want to trade for - we don't have the ammunition. It's Madrigal/Vaughn or a bunch of guys who aren't worth much. We dont' have anyone around #75 who could be the centerpiece of a decent but not overwhelming package. 

The part you're kind of ignoring in your calculus is how the Mets are going to get all these guys to play.  Conforto and McNeil both take corner spots.  McNeil may occasionally spell Cano at 2B, in which case I assume Smith is taking reps in the OF.  Then you have Cespedes.  Unless they plan to put McNeil at 3B regularly, and put Lowrie (who they just gave a 2/$20M deal to last winter) on the bench - but McNeil is not an everyday IF.  Something has to give.  Maybe that something is trading McNeil or Conforto instead of Nimmo, but really they have to do something.  

With respect to the Sox system - ya the 2019 season was pretty shitty for Sox prospects not named Robert/Madrigal/Stiever.  I do think we still have some names that have some real trade value outside of the top 4 - specifically Dunning, Walker, Stiever - and to a lesser extent Rutherford and Adolfo. I think there are pieces there to make a move, but I understand your reluctance.   I also think there is some merit to giving the Rutherford/Adolo/Basabe trio one more year to try to claim RF for the future without blocking them with a long term RF via trade isn't the worst idea.  Which is where 1 year stop gaps via trade or FA, or even a guy like Mazara start to make more sense.  I still have decently high hopes for Adolfo - the other two not so much. If someone like Nimmo, or Gregory Polonco, or David Dahl cost too much - I prefer they just go the stop gap route. 

[Balta1701]

9 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

The part you're kind of ignoring in your calculus is how the Mets are going to get all these guys to play.  Conforto and McNeil both take corner spots.  McNeil may occasionally spell Cano at 2B, in which case I assume Smith is taking reps in the OF.  Then you have Cespedes.  Unless they plan to put McNeil at 3B regularly, and put Lowrie (who they just gave a 2/$20M deal to last winter) on the bench - but McNeil is not an everyday IF.  Something has to give.  Maybe that something is trading McNeil or Conforto instead of Nimmo, but really they have to do something.  

With respect to the Sox system - ya the 2019 season was pretty shitty for Sox prospects not named Robert/Madrigal/Stiever.  I do think we still have some names that have some real trade value outside of the top 4 - specifically Dunning, Walker, Stiever - and to a lesser extent Rutherford and Adolfo. I think there are pieces there to make a move, but I understand your reluctance.   I also think there is some merit to giving the Rutherford/Adolo/Basabe trio one more year to try to claim RF for the future without blocking them with a long term RF via trade isn't the worst idea.  Which is where 1 year stop gaps via trade or FA, or even a guy like Mazara start to make more sense.  I still have decently high hopes for Adolfo - the other two not so much. If someone like Nimmo, or Gregory Polonco, or David Dahl cost too much - I prefer they just go the stop gap route. 

If the Mets don't have room for this guy there are 28 other teams that he could be traded to. 

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If the Mets don't have room for this guy there are 28 other teams that he could be traded to. 

Right - which is quite literally why we're having this discussion...

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

Here's the thing for me, a Moustakas is available every year, pretty much every month outside August/Sept/October.

Stretching trying to make sure every roster has a stable chance of 2 WAR is a fools errand to me because you just as often end up having spent resources on several replaceable players. Go get some really good things, and if needed you can send them off next year becasue they will still be somewhat wanted.

You aren't going to get truly screwed on JDM for 3 years, just like you won't get screwed with Mous. 

I think you are going to have to show me a LH 30 HR guy who can play 3 infield positions is available every year for as cheap as Moustakas is likely to be who didn't have a QO offer attached. I'll be easy on you try showing me for the last 3 years. You can't just make a blanket statement like that without proving it. You also cannot use Moustakas as one of those examples from last year.

You also seem to compare him to a 2 WAR guy when he was a 3 WAR guy in 2019.

Edited October 28, 2019 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[bmags]

28 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I think you are going to have to show me a LH 30 HR guy who can play 3 infield positions is available every year for as cheap as Moustakas is likely to be who didn't have a QO offer attached. I'll be easy on you try showing me for the last 3 years. You can't just make a blanket statement like that without proving it. You also cannot use Moustakas as one of those examples from last year.

Moustakas, for instance, was available last year, and the year prior. And he’s available this year, and is cheap despite being a rare, valuable commodity.