A Realistic Offseason

[TheFutureIsNear]

Just now, Eminor3rd said:

Carving out ABs for Vaughn in 2021. Regardless of his success until then, he’s gonna need them if we are gonna be good. 

they need to not miss on the TOR pitching. I know that sounds dumb, but it’s in their hands. And they’ll need all their pennies. 

I guess where we are differing is the fact that you think they can sign either Cole/Strasburg and I’m looking at other ways to improve the team because I don’t think there’s a shot in hell of the Sox getting either guy. Hopefully you are right 

[mqr]

8 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Carving out ABs for Vaughn in 2021. Regardless of his success until then, he’s gonna need them if we are gonna be good. 

they need to not miss on the TOR pitching. I know that sounds dumb, but it’s in their hands. And they’ll need all their pennies. 

Carving out guaranteed AB's for Vaughn in any year at this point sounds like a fantastic way to burned. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, mqr said:

Carving out guaranteed AB's for Vaughn in any year at this point sounds like a fantastic way to burned. 

If we're drafting the most advanced college bat and a 1b who shouldn't need much defensive work, with the 3rd overall pick - if he isn't at least ready for the big leagues by early 2021 then someone did something seriously wrong in their scouting. 

[mqr]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

If we're drafting the most advanced college bat and a 1b who shouldn't need much defensive work, with the 3rd overall pick - if he isn't at least ready for the big leagues by early 2021 then someone did something seriously wrong in their scouting. 

That's fine, he's still a guy whose never taken an AB above A Ball. There's no reason to make yourself that inflexible. 

[Balta1701]

Just now, mqr said:

That's fine, he's still a guy whose never taken an AB above A Ball. There's no reason to make yourself that inflexible. 

I could say the same thing about blocking him with several multi-year deal guys. If this team signed Abreu for 3 years and Martinez for 4, they have made themselves extremely inflexible at 1b.

If they brought in Martinez on a 4 year deal...but Abreu accepted a $19 million, 1 year qualifying offer, and the team was willing to let him go when Vaughn was ready, that works also, but of course that statement is inconsistent with the guarantee the owner gave the player about a lifetime commitment. 

[Eminor3rd]

16 minutes ago, mqr said:

Carving out guaranteed AB's for Vaughn in any year at this point sounds like a fantastic way to burned. 

It’s less “carving out” than it is “not blocking them with 34 year old mike moustakas”

[Eminor3rd]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If we're drafting the most advanced college bat and a 1b who shouldn't need much defensive work, with the 3rd overall pick - if he isn't at least ready for the big leagues by early 2021 then someone did something seriously wrong in their scouting. 

Right — I don’t know if he’ll be successful, but the plan involves him seeing big league pitching inside of 15 months. And he will need to do that in order to sink or swim

[TheFutureIsNear]

10 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

If we're drafting the most advanced college bat and a 1b who shouldn't need much defensive work, with the 3rd overall pick - if he isn't at least ready for the big leagues by early 2021 then someone did something seriously wrong in their scouting. 

MUCH crazier things have happened...nothing is off the table when it comes to Sox and developing prospects. No way we should be building a team around future prospects

[SonofaRoache]

7 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I could say the same thing about blocking him with several multi-year deal guys. If this team signed Abreu for 3 years and Martinez for 4, they have made themselves extremely inflexible at 1b.

If they brought in Martinez on a 4 year deal...but Abreu accepted a $19 million, 1 year qualifying offer, and the team was willing to let him go when Vaughn was ready, that works also, but of course that statement is inconsistent with the guarantee the owner gave the player about a lifetime commitment. 

Just because Jose isnon the roster doesn't mean he will make 19 million each year he is here. I think the Sox give him a big 2 year deal that goes in line with Vaughn's development. Then they will see how good Abreu is after. If he becomes below average or sucks, he can hang around only if it is cheap for a few years. If Martinez is playing really well and you have Vauhgn, that sounds like a good problem. If he is average or sucks, then you pay to give him the boot and roll with Vaughn. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I wonder if the same people saying Moustakas is a poor fit for the next couple years are the same people that said Machado was a great fit last winter for the next decade? Because that would be odd.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

23 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

1. I’m not arguing UZR over DRS, I’m arguing wRC+ over OPS+. I don’t think anyone here, myself included, can make a convincing argument for either UZR or DRS. But wRC+ over ops+ is clear as day.

2. Please stop with this false “sabermetrics vs common sense” narrative. If you keep using that lense, you will miss my point every time. I’m not seeing pie charts, lol. I see a useful player, too. I’m trying to point out the importance of context: I don’t see a full time spot for the guy without costing a higher upside player ABs. I’m refusing to ignore all aspects of his playing just because he hits 30 homers. I Am rightfully wary of committing significant resources to a short term player who will add a win or two to the ledger when we all know that doing so will likely prevent the White Sox from adding a more significant piece. It’s not sabermetrics, it’s just looking at the bigger picture.

3. I’m not counting on ABs for Vaughn next year, necessarily. But absolutely over the next two seasons. Which I said.

4. I don’t know how I feel about JDM. He would definitely make a bigger impact, but he looks to be in decline, and if he bails on 3/67, presumably it’s to end up with more. That’s a big commitment on a declining asset in the easiest position to fill, and for which we already have internal candidates. 

Ok so while the rest of us are arguing how to make the Sox competitive with starting pitching we all know the Sox have to sign then debating if JDM etc would be better than Grandal/Moose etc you are arguing to sign the starting pitching and then just give 2020 AB's to Collins Robert Madrigal ? I guess I'm not seeing your plan

It appears you want to get the pitching then wait more,  or extend Moncada and Gio since waiting does nothing but get the Sox closer to losing Moncada, Giolito and Lopez and makes sustained success appear less likely. When does your window to make the playoffs open and when does it end ?

There are tons of other posts you could've taken umbrage with if that is the case like trading assets for 1 year of Pederson or Betts, or putting Lopez in the BP and signing Hamels or the tons of posts thinking JDM is a good signing while you don't know how you feel about him yet quickly point out his flaws. I need to be enlightened to your putting things into context wizardry with numbers.

[SonofaRoache]

26 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ok so while the rest of us are arguing how to make the Sox competitive with starting pitching we all know the Sox have to sign then debating if JDM etc would be better than Grandal/Moose etc you are arguing to sign the starting pitching and then just give 2020 AB's to Collins Robert Madrigal ? I guess I'm not seeing your plan

It appears you want to get the pitching then wait more,  or extend Moncada and Gio since waiting does nothing but get the Sox closer to losing Moncada, Giolito and Lopez and makes sustained success appear less likely. When does your window to make the playoffs open and when does it end ?

There are tons of other posts you could've taken umbrage with if that is the case like trading assets for 1 year of Pederson or Betts, or putting Lopez in the BP and signing Hamels or the tons of posts thinking JDM is a good signing while you don't know how you feel about him yet quickly point out his flaws. I need to be enlightened to your putting things into context wizardry with numbers.

There is nothing wrong with putting Lopez in the pen and signing Hamels as your 5 if you also sign Cole, Stras, or Wheeler. Hamels is a productive pitcher and Lopez  is maddeningly inconsistent. I wouldn't mind giving Lopez another shot depending on how FA goes, but he needs to be on a short leash. 

[caulfield12]

34 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ok so while the rest of us are arguing how to make the Sox competitive with starting pitching we all know the Sox have to sign then debating if JDM etc would be better than Grandal/Moose etc you are arguing to sign the starting pitching and then just give 2020 AB's to Collins Robert Madrigal ? I guess I'm not seeing your plan

It appears you want to get the pitching then wait more,  or extend Moncada and Gio since waiting does nothing but get the Sox closer to losing Moncada, Giolito and Lopez and makes sustained success appear less likely. When does your window to make the playoffs open and when does it end ?

There are tons of other posts you could've taken umbrage with if that is the case like trading assets for 1 year of Pederson or Betts, or putting Lopez in the BP and signing Hamels or the tons of posts thinking JDM is a good signing while you don't know how you feel about him yet quickly point out his flaws. I need to be enlightened to your putting things into context wizardry with numbers.

Relying on Collins to be a significant piece of the future is the way this organization has fumbled rebuilding for the last decade, as well.

It seems we’re more concerned with getting blown out of the playoffs like the Twins, instead preferring to create this dynastic super team which may or may not ever happen down the line.   Or maybe the odds of Hahn pulling off a similar magic trick as Minnesota did in FA seems so unlikely (see 2004-05 Sox moves) that nobody can count on it ever transpiring again?

And it’s not like we can any longer wait on first round draft picks for immediate impacts, either.

They’re seemingly still in a situation where 1-2 bad $50-100 million signings blows them halfway off course and narrows the window down considerably to 2-3 seasons instead of the 4-6 years like the Astros and Cubs assumed in laying out their blueprints.

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ok so while the rest of us are arguing how to make the Sox competitive with starting pitching we all know the Sox have to sign then debating if JDM etc would be better than Grandal/Moose etc you are arguing to sign the starting pitching and then just give 2020 AB's to Collins Robert Madrigal ? I guess I'm not seeing your plan

It appears you want to get the pitching then wait more,  or extend Moncada and Gio since waiting does nothing but get the Sox closer to losing Moncada, Giolito and Lopez and makes sustained success appear less likely. When does your window to make the playoffs open and when does it end ?

There are tons of other posts you could've taken umbrage with if that is the case like trading assets for 1 year of Pederson or Betts, or putting Lopez in the BP and signing Hamels or the tons of posts thinking JDM is a good signing while you don't know how you feel about him yet quickly point out his flaws. I need to be enlightened to your putting things into context wizardry with numbers.

I’m sure there are tons of posts suggesting things I wouldn’t do, but I am not on the board as much as I used to be, so I miss them. I’ve seen moustakas pop up a lot, so I snagged that one.

Yeah, generally, I think the Sox need to make their prospects into contributors instead of signing stopgaps, at this stage. Given what’s currently available in this year’s market, I think that means signing pitching and foregoing position players. If there were superstar position players available, I would likely feel different.  

A year or two from now, if they’ve failed and are seeing the core pieces on the cusp of free agency, they’ll have to decide whether or not to get more desperate with role players or tear it down again. But with 3 more years of moncada/giolito/etc., this isn’t the year to push all-in with guys like Moustakas. 

[Eminor3rd]

47 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Relying on Collins to be a significant piece of the future is the way this organization has fumbled rebuilding for the last decade, as well.

It seems we’re more concerned with getting blown out of the playoffs like the Twins, instead preferring to create this dynastic super team which may or may not ever happen down the line.   Or maybe the odds of Hahn pulling off a similar magic trick as Minnesota did in FA seems so unlikely (see 2004-05 Sox moves) that nobody can count on it ever transpiring again?

And it’s not like we can any longer wait on first round draft picks for immediate impacts, either.

They’re seemingly still in a situation where 1-2 bad $50-100 million signings blows them halfway off course and narrows the window down considerably to 2-3 seasons instead of the 4-6 years like the Astros and Cubs assumed in laying out their blueprints.

No one is “relying” on Collins, but you need to give your players a chance to play if they’re ever going to contribute. If you aren’t willing to do that, then you shouldn’t rebuild.

Unfortunately, if the Sox are going to continue to operate like a small market team, the window is going to be small. If you only have one or two shots, you better choose very wisely when to take them.

This team has too many holes to warrant blowing “the money” on average role players that take opportunities away from prospects. This time next year, we’re still going to have Moncada/Giolito/Eloy/etc., but we’ll also have Robert/Madrigal/Vaughn either contributing or on the cusp of contributing. It’ll be a stronger base from which to build, and better place to take your one shot. 2022 might be even better. 

And that may be all we get. I don’t like that fact either, but it is what it is — so for chrissakes I hope they at least do it right. 
 

[Eminor3rd]

2 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:

I guess where we are differing is the fact that you think they can sign either Cole/Strasburg and I’m looking at other ways to improve the team because I don’t think there’s a shot in hell of the Sox getting either guy. Hopefully you are right 

Yeah, I mean. They will probably fail. Again. I guess I’m just always going to be rooting for/arguing for what I believe is the best possible strategy, even if the team is likely to do something less. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah, I mean. They will probably fail. Again. I guess I’m just always going to be rooting for/arguing for what I believe is the best possible strategy, even if the team is likely to do something less. 

But that’s why the thread is titled “a realistic offseason.” Those top guys aren’t realistic for this franchise so no sense in expending any energy towards it.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

Yeah, I mean. They will probably fail. Again. I guess I’m just always going to be rooting for/arguing for what I believe is the best possible strategy, even if the team is likely to do something less. 

I admire any stance that targets the top guys but you also said our payroll is mid market so in reality how much room does that give the Sox to add top guys . If they do fail to land either Cole or Strasburg who just can't punt and wait. Everyone including Hahn has said the money will be spent and the most likely year to spend it appears to be this year. Another flop year in free agency would be the worst thing possible  . There has to be a plan B, C and D in place where not landing the top talent isn't the only path.

[pcq]

At least we are not the Pirates being dismantled by an impatient owner who hired a hockey guy for their new president. Now they have to find a GM so they can hire a manager. Another guy claiming to be a billionaire who does not really act like it. 

[caulfield12]

1 hour ago, pcq said:

At least we are not the Pirates being dismantled by an impatient owner who hired a hockey guy for their new president. Now they have to find a GM so they can hire a manager. Another guy claiming to be a billionaire who does not really act like it. 

He’ll definitely be among the quasi-billionaires by virtue of investing in an MLB franchise at the perfect time with media rights exploding.

[ChiSox59]

9 hours ago, Eminor3rd said:

1. Context is important. Look past the homers. That’s why we use WAR. His defense is mediocre and his OBP is Leury Garcia bad. His ability to play multiple positions doesn’t help if you already have guys in those positions who are better. Dude isn’t gonna be happy as a multi-position backup to a bunch of rookies. If he would play DH for the White Sox, then he’s a DH for the White Sox.
 

The thing he does best (hit homers) has literally never been easier to come by. This is reflected in his linear weights stats.

2. There’s literally no reason to use bWAR over fWAR for position players, unless you’re prepared to argue that DRS is a superior system to UZR. Fangraphs uses wRC+, which is objectively better than OPS+, even if they don’t differ much. In practice, people use bWAR when they want to make a player look better and it turns out that DRS favored the guy that year.

3. Even if he was worth 3 WAR this year, he’ll project around 2 WAR based on his career numbers and aging curve, and even less if he spends half his time at DH, and what he does going forward is the only thing matters to the White Sox. 

This is a good post. Moustakas is a fine back up option / plan D for a year. You could do a lot worse. But he’s not a great fit as the primary DH. 

[BackDoorBreach]

I just don't understand the Moustakas thing.  We have a 3B and 2B.  He's played 4 games his entire career at first.  There is no reason to pay 10+ million to a sub when we have Leury and probably Mendick to fill holes on rest days.  If you want him for DH I'd much rather get JDM and trade for a LH RF and do the whole Grandal  mish mash with Abreu/JDM/McCann/Collins/Grandal moving all over.  

[ChiSox59]

edit: mean to quote @Eminor3rd, but seems my phone sucks at message boarding. 

I really liked your Mous take, but as I’ve read more of your thoughts on it, just seems like what you’re proposing / think is the right thing to do is a perpetual rebuild. Sure the Sox are still “building”, and I too have serious reservations about JD Martinez and Abreu coexisting on a the roster for multiple seasons, but the Sox can’t play in the middle for any more than 1 more season. 
 

They have limited long term commitments. They have money to spend. They have a good young cost controlled core. Their openings are at positions that should be easier to fill. There is no reason to punt the control of Moncada who could be a legitimate star in this game. They just need to deploy the money intelligently. 
 

The chances of them signing Cole is minimal, but go out at get Wheeler, sign Grandal, sign a stop gap SP, trade for a RF and go to battle. Will that team make the playoffs? Probably not. But it should be around contention and fun to watch, and then the entire team returns the next season with 1 more year under its belt.  Move Abreu to DH, get Vaughn in the mix and see what you have in 2021.
 

Just don’t see how the Sox could toil around for multiple more seasons as you seem to suggest. 

Edited October 30, 2019 by ChiSox59

[ChiSox59]

15 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I just don't understand the Moustakas thing.  We have a 3B and 2B.  He's played 4 games his entire career at first.  There is no reason to pay 10+ million to a sub when we have Leury and probably Mendick to fill holes on rest days.  If you want him for DH I'd much rather get JDM and trade for a LH RF and do the whole Grandal  mish mash with Abreu/JDM/McCann/Collins/Grandal moving all over.  

Zero chance Abreu, Grandal and JDM would ever be together on this team.
 

Abreu seems to be a given. We can debate the merits of that, but seems  95%+ chance that occurs. Then it’s sign JDM for 3-4 years and block Vaughn. Or sign Grandal and rotate DH/C/1B between Abreu, Grandal, McCann and Collins. Then in 21 Vaughn takes over 1B and Abreu becomes primary DH, and sign a b/u catcher for Grandal, or keep McCann around. Doubtful Collins is part of the equation at that point, but at least you gave him 2020 to see what you have. He checks a lot of boxes this team is missing so he deserves a full season look. 

[poppysox]

7 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

edit: mean to quote @Eminor3rd, but seems the phone sucks at message boarding. 

I really liked your Mous take, but as I’ve ready more of your thoughts on it, just seems like what you’re proposing / think is the right thing to do is a perpetual rebuild. Sure the Sox are still “building”, and I too have serious reservations about JD Martinez and Abreu coexisting on a the roster for multiple seasons, but the Sox can’t play in the middle for any more than 1 more season. 
 

They have limited long term commitments. They have money to spend. They have a good young cost controlled core. Their openings are at positions that should be easier to fill. There is no reason to punt the control of Moncada who could be a legitimate star in this game. They just need to deploy the money intelligently. 
 

The chances of them signing Cole is minimal, but go out at get Wheeler, sign Grandal, sign a stop gap SP, trade for a RF and go to battle. Will that team make the playoffs? Probably not. But it should be around contention and fun to watch, and then the entire team returns the next season with 1 more year under its belt.  Move Abreu to DH, get Vaughn in the mix and see what you have in 2021.
 

Just don’t see how the Sox could toil around for multiple more seasons as you seem to suggest. 

Wheeler, Grandal, a Nova or better 2nd starter, Pederson or Calhoun type RF and a couple serviceable RP's and I'm good.  I think Robert and Madrigal will make a ton of difference on both defense and offensive.  Watching Altuve and Eaton work counts and keep pitchers minds elsewhere is what we will get from Madrigal.  I would love this teams chances.