A Realistic Offseason

[SonofaRoache]

50 minutes ago, ron883 said:

Rick Hahn's bum ass just likes using that as an excuse

Agreed. It is 2019, leaks happen. Don't use leaks as an excuse for not getting the job done. 

[BackDoorBreach]

I don't understand why the same people clamoring for Betts as an option, who will probably be 100 million dollars more than Cole, think the Sox have 0 shot at Cole but should stop gap RF in 2020 for Betts. - Yes it's a run on sentence.

It does not make any sense.  I get injury and muH DaVid PriCe and all that.  Fair argument.  But Cole is THE best pitcher in baseball and would arguably be much more valuable to this team than Mookie.  I'll hang up.

 

[poppysox]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

There is zero chance Puig gets anything close to that figure.  MLBTR is predicting he gets 1/$8M and while I think that’s light, I honestly don’t see him getting more than 2/$24M max.  Dude is just not very good and has a cancerous attitude on top.

I still can't help but wonder if Abreu and Moncada could get him motivated.

[bmags]

2 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I don't understand why the same people clamoring for Betts as an option, who will probably be 100 million dollars more than Cole, think the Sox have 0 shot at Cole but should stop gap RF in 2020 for Betts. - Yes it's a run on sentence.

It does not make any sense.  I get injury and muH DaVid PriCe and all that.  Fair argument.  But Cole is THE best pitcher in baseball and would arguably be much more valuable to this team than Mookie.  I'll hang up.

 

Not even sure who you are talking about.

[fathom]

24 minutes ago, poppysox said:

I still can't help but wonder if Abreu and Moncada could get him motivated.

If a free agency season can’t motivate you, nothing will

[Eminor3rd]

2 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

OK, How about this for a “realistic offseason:”

 

1.       Madison Bumgarner 5/$110MM. He’s a LHP with championship experience. The SFG are salary-fucked, what with their Samardzia/Cueto/Longoria/Posey contracts. Their team is getting old, bad, and won’t sniff the top of that division for years. Their local media are assuming he’d be OK with 3/$60MM or 4/$80MM; Spotrac has his market value at 5/$105MM.

2.       Yasiel Puig 4/$72MM. Yes, he’s RH. Yes, he’s had his differences with Bumgarner and Abreu. Yes, he’s had his effort questioned at times. He’s also 28, and an actual RFer. Spotrac has his market value at 3/$53MM, but there simply aren't any other RFers available in FA this year.

3.       Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 2/$4MM. Here, the Chicago Reinsdorfs get to exercise their “thrifty” side, and bring in a LH DH on the cheap. I would have preferred Yanagita, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be posted.

4.       Jose Abreu 2/$30MM. He’s going to be here anyway, whether Ron likes it or not.

5.       Shelby Miller or some other veteran bum 1/$2MM + an option. [Shrugs.] Eat them innings until Kopech shows up, I guess.

 

I’m guessing the salaries add up to: $70MM existing +  $22MM +  $18MM  +  $2MM +  $15MM + $2MM =  $129MM-ish on OD.

 

My working hypothesis is that no Boras client will come here. I also think that Wheeler's market will be too rich for the Reinsdorfs.  I also think that with a top-heavy/shallow system, any trades to spruce up the roster, and/or close any holes, and/or repair any underperformances by the five so mentioned above will have to come AFTER the injured/underperforming pieces in MiLB get healthy and re-establish their prospect value.

 

[Edit] Carry on...

A couple thoughts:

1. I think Madison Bumgarner is going to be a big mistake for someone if he gets that kind of money. He’s a once dominant guy who has had a great career, but he’s in clear decline and his regression has been masked by his home park for the past couple years. The velo is down, the fly balls are up, and I think he would be an awful match for us. I would rather sign every other pitcher in his tier, especially for that money. Odorizzi especially, and maybe even Ryu or Keuchel at the lower prices they should command.

2.) I think Tsutsugoh will get a touch more than that, but not too much. And I love the idea of it as well — it’s a low risk solution to a big hole we have that has some real upside. I think he’s more likely a AAAA guy than an above average MLb hitter, but the latter is very possible. And I feel more confident about it now that I’ve seen some of his exit velos.

The ship has sailed, unfortunately, on Yuki Yanagita. He signed a three year extension prior to this season, he’s already 31, and he’s starting to get really banged up. He lost most of this year to leg injuries and didn’t look like himself when he got back. Legs and back have been haunting him the past few years. It’s too bad; what a fun player to watch. I don’t think anyone on earth swings harder than he does, lol.

The guy to watch for, on the position player side, is Seiya Suzuki. He’s the best hitter in the league right now, he’s only 25, and although it’s a corner profile, he’s considered a tick above average defensively. Elite plate discipline, great bat control and power, esteemed teammate. Won this years HR derby. And I think there’s a chance the Carp may actually post him over the next year or two. Him and Masataka Yoshida are the two hitters that I think are actually likely to be truly above average MLb guys right away, but Yoshida’s defense is worse and he’s had some injury problems himself. But man, that bat speed.

3. I would much rather get Ozuna than Puig at that price. I’m okay with Puig as an idea, but his inconsistency bothers me on more than a two year deal. 

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

The thing that drives me crazy is that this team has so much potential, but I just don’t trust that Jerry is going to do what it takes to surround this young talent with quality MLB players. Can’t have a repeat of the stars and scrubs team from 2016. 

[Two-Gun Pete]

3 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

As much as I like(D) Puig in his first two years, he's not getting anything more than 3/$40-45ish, something like the Melky Cabrera deal.

He's pretty consistently been worth around 1.5-2ish fWAR in recent years.

Zero interest in overpaying Bumgarner with more than $100 million for his decline years without first doing everything possible to get Wheeler.   And probably Odorizzi for roughly half the price of Bumgarner, leaving that other $55 million in the tank for other needed acquisitions.

Finally, Bumgarner seems like an NL-first guy, he loves hitting and supposedly enjoys life out on the West Coast, so it's pretty difficult to imagine him coming to Chicago, not to mention the culture-clash/chemistry 

On Puig, he only played 125 games in 2018, and split time between 2 teams in 2019. He's not an "ideal solution" for RF. But, trading away scant resources for Nimmo, or hoping/praying for anything from the farm, or signing lesser options as a bridge to God knows what for 2021 don't seem to be good options. At least to my view.

The dollar amount is definitely too high for what he likely is at this point. But, given that he's probably the best option for this and next offseasons, you (over)pay for what's available now. Or you squint and hope that lesser players surprise you. Or re-sign Avi.

 

On Bumgarner, he's a "signability" choice, IMO. Cole and Strasburg aren't coming here, full stop. I believe Wheeler's market will price him out of the Reinsdorfs comfort zone.

Bumgarner's team is tapped out, and about to go into a rebuild. And yes, he's likely in decline at this point. But, IMO, he's the best option/most signable of what's left after Cole, Strasburg, and Wheeler.

[Two-Gun Pete]

1 hour ago, Eminor3rd said:

A couple thoughts:

1. I think Madison Bumgarner is going to be a big mistake for someone if he gets that kind of money. 

2.) I think Tsutsugoh will get a touch more than that, but not too much. And I love the idea of it as well — it’s a low risk solution to a big hole we have that has some real upside. 

3. I would much rather get Ozuna than Puig at that price. I’m okay with Puig as an idea, but his inconsistency bothers me on more than a two year deal. 

1. I see Cole/Strasburg as being the cream of the crop. They're not coming here. (See last offseasons as a predictor of this offseason.) I see Wheeler to be better than Bum, but he'll get too much money and too many years for the Reinsdorfs. 

On the other hand, I see Ryu/Odorizzi/Keuchel as being inferior to Bumgarner. To me, that makes Bumgarner the right player at Reinsdorf's price range.

2. DH is one area where a cheap gamble could work. If it doesn't, then a trade in midseason could fix a Tsutsugoh signing.

3. I think Ozuna returns to st Louis, and he's a LFer, not a RFer. Puig isn't an ideal solution, so much as a "realistic" solution. What's more, we don't know who will be available next offseason, and at what price. If this hole in RF isn't solved this year, we could be right back in the same predicament next offseason. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Two-Gun Pete

[TheFutureIsNear]

I think I’m starting to narrow in on Wheeler as the must have for me. That would at least give me hope for the future of having a potentially very good staff to compete in the playoffs. 
 

Patching RF and DH while waiting to see what Robert, Madrigal, Collins, and Vaughn add to the lineup in the near future is a spin that at least makes some sense...even if I don’t really want to see it go that way. 
 

Wheeler, Encarnacion, Calhoun, Lindblom, Hector Rondon (or pick your favorite mid priced RP) ....that’s an extremely realistic off season I could live with. 

[SoxPride56]

Anyone have information on Shogo Akiyama?  He'll be 32 right after the season starts, so a little older, but I have seen his name floating around on MLB Trade Rumors top 50 free agents, etc.

[Soxnfins]

It is still kind of comical that JR has only given out a 6/66 contract as the biggest in Sox history, but he can take on someone like, granted different sports, Otto Porter $82.3M over 3Y. Two different markets, but holy hell.

[Y2Jimmy0]

20 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

The. Sox. Are. Not. A. Large. Market. Team. 

Despite playing in Chicago. 

Anyone who can't acknowledge that the Cubs own at least 65% of baseball fans in this city just has their head in the sand. 

The Sox area is the south side of the City proper and the south/near SW Burbs. That might be 1/4 of the population of the Chicago metro area. 

The Sox are closer to the remainder of the AL Central in market size. You could argue Detroit having a larger market than the Sox. 

They're on the mid-market/small market border at best. 

They don't act like one but they are in fact a large market team. Major League Baseball does not afford them the same perks afforded to small market clubs. They don't get extra international money and they don't receive competitive balance draft picks. The signing of QO free agents costs them a 2nd round pick. They are a large market team. They should start acting like it. 

[tray]

"Anyone who can't acknowledge that the Cubs own at least 65% of baseball fans in this city just has their head in the sand. "

The Sox have more fans "in the city" where the demographics are quite different than most suburbs. 

The concept of "owning fans" is kind or weird.  No one owns you. 

Most people are not consumed by sports or baseball fandom. Those who watch infrequently do so for the entertainment value rather than  based on fan allegiance to any sports  franchise.   Most are fair weather fans that sway back and forth based on  whichever way the wind is blowing at the time.  I sense a renewed interest in the up and coming White Sox.

 

 

 

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, SoxPride56 said:

Anyone have information on Shogo Akiyama?  He'll be 32 right after the season starts, so a little older, but I have seen his name floating around on MLB Trade Rumors top 50 free agents, etc.

He just broke his toe in the Premier 12 tourney a couple days ago.

High contact, good discipline, tons of doubles and sneaky line drive homer pop. Five time golden glove CF, but everyone agrees he’s lost a step or two.

Taller nori aoki with more power and better defense. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by Eminor3rd

[steveno89]

14 hours ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

OK, How about this for a “realistic offseason:”

 

1.       Madison Bumgarner 5/$110MM. He’s a LHP with championship experience. The SFG are salary-fucked, what with their Samardzia/Cueto/Longoria/Posey contracts. Their team is getting old, bad, and won’t sniff the top of that division for years. Their local media are assuming he’d be OK with 3/$60MM or 4/$80MM; Spotrac has his market value at 5/$105MM.

2.       Yasiel Puig 4/$72MM. Yes, he’s RH. Yes, he’s had his differences with Bumgarner and Abreu. Yes, he’s had his effort questioned at times. He’s also 28, and an actual RFer. Spotrac has his market value at 3/$53MM, but there simply aren't any other RFers available in FA this year.

3.       Yoshitomo Tsutsugo 2/$4MM. Here, the Chicago Reinsdorfs get to exercise their “thrifty” side, and bring in a LH DH on the cheap. I would have preferred Yanagita, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be posted.

4.       Jose Abreu 2/$30MM. He’s going to be here anyway, whether Ron likes it or not.

5.       Shelby Miller or some other veteran bum 1/$2MM + an option. [Shrugs.] Eat them innings until Kopech shows up, I guess.

 

I’m guessing the salaries add up to: $70MM existing +  $22MM +  $18MM  +  $2MM +  $15MM + $2MM =  $129MM-ish on OD.

 

My working hypothesis is that no Boras client will come here. I also think that Wheeler's market will be too rich for the Reinsdorfs.  I also think that with a top-heavy/shallow system, any trades to spruce up the roster, and/or close any holes, and/or repair any underperformances by the five so mentioned above will have to come AFTER the injured/underperforming pieces in MiLB get healthy and re-establish their prospect value.

 

[Edit] Carry on...

Hell no on 4/72 on Puig. I do not think he will get anywhere close to that and might even have to settle for a one year prove it deal. 

5/110 is tall money for Bum, but we really might have to step up to make a player like that happen. I'm all for it, we could use veteran leadership and he gives us a chance each time he takes the mound. I like adding a left handed starter as well. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

14 minutes ago, tray said:

"Anyone who can't acknowledge that the Cubs own at least 65% of baseball fans in this city just has their head in the sand. "

The Sox have more fans "in the city" where the demographics are quite different than most suburbs. 

The concept of "owning fans" is kind or weird.  No one owns you. 

Most people are not consumed by sports or baseball fandom. Those who watch infrequently do so for the entertainment value rather than  based on fan allegiance to any sports  franchise.   Most are fair weather fans that sway back and forth based on  whichever way the wind is blowing at the time.  I sense a renewed interest in the up and coming White Sox.

 

 

 

 

 

And, the only data we have ever had on this has been taken from facebook and other social media platforms. What that told us was the split was about 55-45 within the Metro area of Chicago. If you include Iowa and down state the Cubs have a big advantage. If you include NW Indiana the Sox recover some.

That said, the Chicago Metro area (suburbs and city) shows about a 55-45 split with the West Suburbs being nearly 50/50, south Suburbs being slight edge to the Sox and the N and NW suburbs being about 65-35 Cubs. When the Sox were good and the Cubs bad, that number probably swayed in the Sox favor more than the 55-45 as the casual fan will change interest based on success.

By all means, if the Sox can have a decade of sustained success - or even 5 years - they could recapture some of the fans they have lost with a decade of failure. When I was a kid in the 90's, the split felt much closer to 50/50 than it does today.

Edited November 6, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[steveno89]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

And, the only data we have ever had on this has been taken from facebook and other social media platforms. What that told us was the split was about 55-45 within the Metro area of Chicago. If you include Iowa and down state the Cubs have a big advantage. If you include NW Indiana the Sox recover some.

That said, the Chicago Metro area (suburbs and city) shows about a 55-45 split with the West Suburbs being nearly 50/50, south Suburbs being slight edge to the Sox and the N and NW suburbs being about 65-35 Cubs. When the Sox were good and the Cubs bad, that number probably swayed in the Sox favor more than the 55-45 as the casual fan will change interest based on success.

By all means, if the Sox can have a decade of sustained success - or even 5 years - they could recapture some of the fans they have lost with a decade of failure. When I was a kid in the 90's, the split felt much closer to 50/50 than it does today.

Agreed, it used to feel closer to 55-45 Cubs than it does today, but the Sox have not been relevant in a decade. Sustained success will shift some of that as the Cubs are likely to decline as the Sox begin to rise. 

[Orlando]

Sometimes I feel like this board is 55-45 split favoring the Cubs. I wish there was one thread that they didn't come up. I doubt the Sox come up this much on cubs forums.

[KennyPowers]

1 hour ago, Orlando said:

Sometimes I feel like this board is 55-45 split favoring the Cubs. I wish there was one thread that they didn't come up. I doubt the Sox come up this much on cubs forums.

Agreed. 

F*ck the Cubs and their lemming fans. If you want to count all the transplants that sheepishly go to Wrigley then fine it's 60-40 Cubs.

If you compare people born and bred here it's 50-50.

 

[caulfield12]

3 hours ago, steveno89 said:

Agreed, it used to feel closer to 55-45 Cubs than it does today, but the Sox have not been relevant in a decade. Sustained success will shift some of that as the Cubs are likely to decline as the Sox begin to rise. 

Jon Greenberg of ESPN a decade ago put it close to 50/50 in the city and attributed the attendance differences to Wrigley, Iowa grandmothers on bus tours, NW Indiana, downstate until you hit Cardinals’ territory, WGN broadcasts for decades, Harry Caray...basically the huge numbers of regional Cubs’ fans outside the metropolitan area proper.  Farm teams in Des Moines, Peoria, South Bend,  etc.

Edited November 6, 2019 by caulfield12

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

 

[Orlando]

Castellanos, Encarnacion, MadBum and Kuechel. If this was the free agent haul, would you be happy?

[fathom]

Just now, Orlando said:

Castellanos, Encarnacion, MadBum and Kuechel. If this was the free agent haul, would you be happy?

Absolutely, throw is Castro and someone like Betances

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

2 minutes ago, Orlando said:

Castellanos, Encarnacion, MadBum and Kuechel. If this was the free agent haul, would you be happy?

Hell yes.